Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

T

TBG

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If Beveridge allowed MacCrae to play his mid minutes as he did when a top 5 mid for 5+ years he'd be one of the first players I'd pick but, who knows what crap Beveridge will pull of where he'll play MacCrae🤬🤬🤬
 
Darkie

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#366
TBG said:
If Beveridge allowed MacCrae to play his mid minutes as he did when a top 5 mid for 5+ years he'd be one of the first players I'd pick but, who knows what crap Beveridge will pull of where he'll play MacCrae🤬🤬🤬
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Given Jordon Sweet’s departure, I am hearing he may get some ruck time. Could be lucrative.
 
wogitalia

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Would have liked even less DEF/FWD options to make things interesting but FWDs especially quite good with lack of genuine locks.

Will be interesting to watch the top few carryover guys. Flanders with the great finish but new coach always a question. Smith the upside but was awful last year, Macrae the scoring history but bad trendline, wild west after that.

Expect DEF will be pretty boring. Daicos, Sicily and Sinclair pretty damn hard to go past but will be interesting trying to fit all in.
 
Under The Dome

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GrainFedBeef

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Miller is a Steele said:
I can see a decent amount of players from this crop play Round 1, or Round 0 Opening Round as they call it. Think I’ll stick to Round 0 :LOL:. Whenever they play first… the AFL loves to complicate things! Lots who might debut later in the year when injury lists start to grow.

Barring injuries/suspensions/personal issues, my opinions on them debuting in their teams first game are:
  1. Harley Reid (WCE) - Lock.
  2. Colby McKercher (NTH) - Lock.
  3. Jed Walter (GCS) - Close to a lock.
  4. Zane Duursma (NTH) - Lock.
  5. Nick Watson (HAW) - Very good chance.
  6. Ryley Sanders (WB) - Not too sure. Could be Bevo’d into the forward pocket if he plays.
  7. Caleb Windsor (MEL) - A chance. My guess is he’ll start in the VFL then ease him into the AFL.
  8. Daniel Curtin (ADE) - Close to a lock. Should see him start in defence with their key defender worries.
  9. Ethan Read (GCS) - Unlikely and would be played as a key forward if he gets a chance. Witts the clear number 1 and Moyle is the number 2.
  10. Nate Caddy (ESS) - Likely. Should suit the Bombers system.
  11. Connor O’Sullivan (GEE) - 50/50. I’d assume Geelong would want 3 key defenders + Stewart. De Koning and Kolodjashnij are very likely to start with that 3rd spot open. Jack Henry is there, Blicavs too although I think Geelong would like to keep him in the midfield. O’Sullivan is a good interceptor and Stewart and De Koning are already there.
  12. Phoenix Gothard (GWS) - Maybe. Suits their system very nicely. Greene, Bedford, Daniels all cemented in the best 22. Rowston and O’Halloran around the mark. Darcy Jones was injured all last season after being drafted with pick 21 in 2022. Daniel Lloyd retiring opens up a spot.
  13. Koltyn Tholstrup (MEL) - Same boat as Windsor. Maybe a slightly better chance. I’m a Subiaco supporter in the WAFL (his previous club) and I was very impressed with what he did in the seniors last season. Got better and better as the season went on. He can handle the bigger bodies and he isn't afraid to get under the opponents skin.
  14. Jake Rogers (GCS) - May get a game as a high forward who pinches a couple CBA’s. Hard to see him going ahead of Rowell, Anderson, Miller or Flanders in the rotation.
  15. Jordan Croft (WB) - Unlikely. Should start in the 2’s then assess from there. The Doggies key forward stocks are pretty healthy right now. JUH, Naughton and Lobb all ahead of him.
  16. Will Green (SYD) - Grundy clear number 1 and Ladhams is a better forward if they decide to split. I’d say Ladhams still plays ahead of him if Grundy gets injured.
  17. James Leake (GWS) - Unlikely. May be a chance to take the spot Fahey had locked down at the end of last season, but not straight away. An injury or 2 probably sees him play.
  18. Darcy Wilson (STK) - Unsure. Don’t know a whole lot about him. Did well in the combine and hits the scoreboard. Could take Gresham’s spot. Ross may want him to play some VFL first although Phillipou and Caminiti played round 1 last year.
  19. Will McCabe (HAW) - 50/50. Hawks fans will have more of an idea than me. Sicily locked in. Frost should play. Blanck is the one he’d be competing with. Blanck more of a lockdown type compared to McCabe who’s more of an aerial presence. Could potentially play forward too, although Gunston and Chol have just arrived.
  20. Taylor Goad (NTH) - Very unlikely. Long-term prospect.
  21. Charlie Edwards (ADE) - Unlikely. Hard to see him breaking into the Crows midfield straight away.
  22. Wil Dawson (NTH) - Unlikely. Can play forward, back or as a ruck. More a long-term prospect like Goad.
  23. Riley Hardeman (NTH) - Likely. With the departures of Hall and Ziebell, he should play straight away in my opinion. Plays just like Luke McDonald.
  24. Caiden Cleary (SYD) - Unlikely. Tough midfield to break into. Horse will make him earn it.
  25. Harry Demattia (COLL) - Unlikely. Obviously going to be hard to break into the premiership team. Collingwood have said they’d like to use him off half-back and even Noble couldn’t get a game during the finals.
  26. Will Graham (GCS) - Unlikely. Similar to Rogers in terms of opportunity.
  27. Oscar Ryan (ADE) - Unlikely. Needs some more development.
  28. Lance Collard (STK) - 50/50. Depends on how preseason goes. Just finds ways to kick goals. Less likely to play than Wilson I think. Should play deep if he gets a game which doesn’t bode too well for fantasy purposes.
  29. Ashton Moir (CAR) - Unlikely. From being a potential top 2 pick this time last year to pick 29. Poor season but obviously has talent. Could be a superstar or an average state league player.
  30. Archer Reid (WCE) - Unlikely. Allen and Darling locked in. At this stage I think Flynn rucks and Williams is backup/3rd tall. Maric probably squeezes in somehow as a 4th too. Waterman lurking although they might try him as a backman (was going to last year before his illness). Ahead of Jamieson I believe and can’t see Barnett playing as a forward ahead of him
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Great run down. Hoping some small 70kg mid/forwards costing 117k are picked so everyone jumps on them. Only win I had was missing the three poor performing eagles, bombers and from memory one other little forward who didn't do much.

wogitalia said:
As a fan of a team who clearly benefits from it I also think it's stupid. If we do win a flag there's always always going to be that little asterisk that devalues it.

I just don't get why they decided to change the NGA rules to punish all the non-rugby state sides, that was a good and fair way of countering it, even more so because a lot of those kids grow up as fans of other sides anyway so there's not always a desire to play, it was like JUH was too good a prospect so they just threw the whole system out.

The NSW/QLD academies are very important for the growth of the sport so I don't really like the other approach of getting rid of them, GC in particular is one of the biggest and fastest growing youth participant areas in the entire country (which is only going to break things even more over the next 5+ years) and that's huge for the long term of the sport but effectively having 4 teams who get an extra bonus system is broken.

I'm indifferent on the bonus, I like it in that it makes it easier for guys to get to the clubs (includes FS guys) but I also wouldn't have any issue if teams just had to pay the full price.

The farce that the first round was this year needs to be fixed, it's probably only noticeably stupid because of the weird desire to split a draft almost no one watches into a multiple day event but as long as you have that it's stupid, it's also definitely punitive to the bad sides, the Eagles 2nd pick at 30 this year is ridiculous. I don't think it would be a terrible idea that the teams can match a bid for as many players in round 1 as they have first round picks going into the draft, so GC with 4 guys would have needed 4 first rounders going in to match them, otherwise they could pick only one if they only had one pick. Would mean that the first round remains the correct length.



I think you're ignoring the round 0 factor. Having only 8 teams playing means there needs to be some kind of concession that round, whatever that concession is will have significant impacts on everything. You've also got 4 bye rounds that may or may not be best 18, if it's best 18 then it's a huge change also, if it's not it's also a massive decision.

No matter what path they take will have huge strategic ramifications. Double game round, best 18/22 in byes, not counting round zero, round zero free hit, lockout at end of round zero or open until round one, round zero scores instead counting in bye weeks or whatever other path they take, all of those will be massive which is why everyone is super focused on it.

That doesn't even factor in how they'll deal with the price changes.

It's not really worth doing anything planning wise until we know what they're doing but speculating about what they might do is part of the fun.

I still think a DGR with best 18 byes is the most likely but it would also be just about the most drastic and probably boring as it would make those round zero guys much more desireable and just about locks. DGR with best 22 makes the decision much tougher. I don't expect the freehit idea purely because if you mess up round zero you may as well delete your team and I don't think they go with an unrecoverable play like that purely because of it.
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NGA - not sure why they they don't apply the same rule to everyone, if you makes finals (there is a cascading formula depending on what level of finals you make, which looks fine), you cannot pick them inside top 40. Maybe more stringent than current rule for the northern 4 teams where if you make finals, you cannot get any inside top 40 pick.

DGR - how does this work and when would it likely happen.

I expect we get no free hit OR for team, maybe best 12, then best 18 whenever there is a bye for two teams or more. Interested to how strategically the DGR will play into thinking.

Tricky part around best 12 in OR is the incentive to pick premiums playing that round, although, this could be a trap (maybe) if those players leak points from round 2 onwards.

Guessing price rises happen after 3rd game still which means it may be staggered in 2024 with most players changing price in round 4.
 
wogitalia

wogitalia

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#376
GrainFedBeef said:
Great run down. Hoping some small 70kg mid/forwards costing 117k are picked so everyone jumps on them. Only win I had was missing the three poor performing eagles, bombers and from memory one other little forward who didn't do much.



NGA - not sure why they they don't apply the same rule to everyone, if you makes finals (there is a cascading formula depending on what level of finals you make, which looks fine), you cannot pick them inside top 40. Maybe more stringent than current rule for the northern 4 teams where if you make finals, you cannot get any inside top 40 pick.

DGR - how does this work and when would it likely happen.

I expect we get no free hit OR for team, maybe best 12, then best 18 whenever there is a bye for two teams or more. Interested to how strategically the DGR will play into thinking.

Tricky part around best 12 in OR is the incentive to pick premiums playing that round, although, this could be a trap (maybe) if those players leak points from round 2 onwards.

Guessing price rises happen after 3rd game still which means it may be staggered in 2024 with most players changing price in round 4.
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DGR simply means that they combine R0 and R1 into a single round and the guys from the teams playing R0 each have two scores that round. For price changes it counts as two individual games, for captaincy/round score as one score. It only works though if you then have full best 22 in the bye rounds as you then have a genuine decision of the double scores and fielding a rookie/possible donuts/forced trades. They use it in just about all the other formats on RDT (EPL, NBA, BBL, etc) so it's obviously not hard to code. IMO if they went best 18 with DGR it would be broken and everyone would just load up on the R0 premiums as you basically just get bonus points in round 1 and very minimal cost in the byes.

I like this option the most as the strategy around it is definitely interesting and there's opportunities to walk different paths, which I personally think should always be the driving factor of any decision they make, for mine the absolute worst part of SC the last 5 odd years is the sameness of all the sides.

I think best 12 is a lot harder to work, both the programming aspect, and the practical aspect that forcing people to pick at least 12 players from those 8 teams is pretty brutal and also does the complete opposite of the "creating diversity in teams" idea I mentioned above, the pool of players from that group of sides is actually very small and you'd be basically locking everyone into about 12 out of 15 premiums because there's maybe 4 rookies in that bunch total and none of the better ones at this point in time. You can basically bet that every side is going to be Daicos, Newman, Gawn, Grundy, Flanders and the 5 genuine premium mids and then Lloyd/Whitfield/Short and Curnow/Bolton/Martin decisions. Honestly if they do best 12 looking at those sides I'm pretty sure I just wont bother this year.

Honestly I think the AFL has created a "least worse" option here for the fantasy comps. There are no good solutions or opportunities.

Free hit round - Have a bad round 0 and it's delete time, people could be 500 points back with a couple of wrong selections. Given every side will then look the same at round 1 as it has for 5+ years now, there's no clawing that back against 1000 people that far ahead of you.
Best 12* - As above
DGR - Complexity for the casuals, it works in the hardcore formats because only hardcores do them but SC/AFLF are more casual oriented comps. Also compromises how they've handled bye rounds and that's a spanner and if they don't do the bye rounds right it will basically have all the negatives of the best 12 above, every side will be the same as you'll be forced to overload r0 guys.
Not counting it at all - Messes up price changes hugely and also makes the bye treatment pivotal or those players become unselectable, creating all the issues of best 12 in reverse...

Such a cockup by the AFL to shaft the fantasy side of their supporter base like this and for such a stupid reason.
 
wogitalia

wogitalia

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#379
TBG said:
Does anyone know what price James Jprdon will start at in 2024? Could be worth a punt as a C/Fat the Swans where he should get more full games. Hoping he's around the $250-$300k mark.
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He's such a weird recruit for us, genuinely no idea where we're planning to play him but we've clearly targeted him so must be some plan. Gut says we use him on a wing out of position like we did Stephens as that's really the open spot for us. I can dream that he's taking Rowbottom's spot and he can go tackle lots of people and give it to the other team for our VFL side but Horse loves that potato so it's not happening...

Super early but our best 22 shouldn't have many open spots...

B: Lloyd X Rampe
HB: Blakey McCartin Florent
C: Y Parker Y
HF: Heeney Amartey Hayward
F: Papley McDonald McLean
R: Grundy Gulden Warner
Int: Rowbottom Adams Z ZZ

X - Hamling/Melican/Francis battle
Y - McInerney, Campbell, Sheldrick, Warner Jnr, Roberts and Jordon battle. I imagine if Sheldrick wins it means more Gulden on the wing.
Z - Cunningham/Fox likely battle for the 7th defender, also possible both play and Florent joins the battle for Y or we go with maybe a JMc off HB to play two more.
ZZ - Leftovers of Y/Z battles as well as Wicks and Konstanty but think they're battling Papley/Hayward/Adams.

So basically the two wing spots and 2 bench spots seem to me to be in play. Personally I'd play Sheldrick and Campbell first and then it's between JMc or Jordon, maybe JMc at HB to push out Cunningham/Fox as he offers a lot more than those two with the ball but they're much better defenders.
 
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