Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
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Rory Laird started the season with a 50 and 2x90’s in his first 9 games last season, his price dropped from $703,900 to $595,900 effectively losing $108k on starting value at the start of Rd10-he then came out and pumped a 145 and got his price rolling again, so your argument is sound, but like Beg2differ has mentioned, you really need everything to line up for this to work. Personally I’m paying up for a guaranteed top5 midfielder bar suspension/injury, it will cause me a lot less headaches through the season than not owning him and trying to get him in at the same time as some other “must have” who’s had a positional change and is averaging 140 over the last 3, or sitting down with your favourite lager and just watching your ruck go down in a marking contest in the first 5 min with a season ending injury that the club announces 3wks later! Best of luck whichever way you go 👍
Not sure about that, in fact it's probably the opposite. Given the MN means player prices will naturally erode throughout the year, players need to score higher than their 2023 average just to maintain their value.
So if anything, the planets need to align and Bont has to improve on a career-best year in order to just preserve his starting price.
I'm not saying he's a bad pick (I may go there but I probably won't), but the real value in someone at 700k isn't in them justifying their value (which is historically rare) - but in what they can give you in Captainy points vs a different player struggling to justify a 650k price tag.
So if anything, the planets need to align and Bont has to improve on a career-best year in order to just preserve his starting price.
I'm not saying he's a bad pick (I may go there but I probably won't), but the real value in someone at 700k isn't in them justifying their value (which is historically rare) - but in what they can give you in Captainy points vs a different player struggling to justify a 650k price tag.
Good info. I looked at this pre Xmas started some numbers and then got distracted, forgot and never went back to it. Still not clear if King had an impact ie taking up opportunities that Owen had previously all to himself irrespective of whether he made the most of them. At his price you would have to pick him as a keeper though probably and I am not sure he justifies that.
So I was looking at bulldogs as my M1, R1, F1 and thought I'd like to diversify. Any particular reason everyone is fading rowan Marshall? Number 2 ruck of last year hasn't got a mention anywhere.
I know English and the various value rucks this year are hogging the attention, but surely he's still good for a top 3 ruck again?
I know English and the various value rucks this year are hogging the attention, but surely he's still good for a top 3 ruck again?
My recollection is that the top rucks seldom back it up from one season to another. Gawn, Grundy and Cox are the exceptions that come to mind (and Cox is going back a while now!).
I think there is a view from some quarters that pretty much everything went right for Marshall last year. His CBA attendance was the highest of any ruck in the competition, at 87%. I would expect that to be lower this year.
Gawn and Grundy, aside from potentially being at a discount, also had their primary “problem” fixed over the off season, so their scoring should be better, and give Marshall and others stronger competition for those top few spots this season.
In terms of the benefit of diversifying, I don’t profess to be across the bye situation for 2024, but as a general observation, the Dogs have generally been quite an SC friendly team (in the sense of having lots of quality options) for some time, and if you were going to load up on them, having those players spread across lines, rather than all on one line, is a good thing.
The Lobb situation is worth monitoring though. That’s a bit of a concern as I see it.
I think there is a view from some quarters that pretty much everything went right for Marshall last year. His CBA attendance was the highest of any ruck in the competition, at 87%. I would expect that to be lower this year.
Gawn and Grundy, aside from potentially being at a discount, also had their primary “problem” fixed over the off season, so their scoring should be better, and give Marshall and others stronger competition for those top few spots this season.
In terms of the benefit of diversifying, I don’t profess to be across the bye situation for 2024, but as a general observation, the Dogs have generally been quite an SC friendly team (in the sense of having lots of quality options) for some time, and if you were going to load up on them, having those players spread across lines, rather than all on one line, is a good thing.
The Lobb situation is worth monitoring though. That’s a bit of a concern as I see it.
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Just be cautious about placing too much emphasis on CBA for rucks when it is not as helpful since ruck contests attended are readily available and eliminates the need for inference that a CBA equates to attending every stoppage in between goals/quarters or whether certain teams have more repeat stoppages, etc.
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So every year I put together a "fire sale" team with no one over $550K. And every year I chicken out and go with a GnR team.
The idea is you have virtually no rookies on field so you can upgrade quicker picking off the fallen premos. With the exception of Reid (who is a generational talent) this is the case.
This year stuff it. For a bit of fun and excitement not to mention comparison I am going with pretty much the team below. A few I will wait to see how they go/ where they play in preseason. Rooks are just place holders until named. Daicos is the only exception as need reliable capt every week.
Def: Young, NWM, Howe, Coleman, Williams, Coffield. (Pink, Gibcus)
Mid: Daicos, Miller, Day, Flanders, JHF, Guthrie, Callahan, Reid. (Curtain, Clark Mannagh)
Ruck: Grundy Xerri. (Livingston)
Fwd: Macrae, Adams, Fisher, Billings, Jordan, Harmes. (Macrae, Cadman)
Obviously if someone under $550k is lighting up preseason due to a positional change then they need to form part of the team.
So there it is. Fairly solid.
Now just sit back and watch the pre season unfold.
The idea is you have virtually no rookies on field so you can upgrade quicker picking off the fallen premos. With the exception of Reid (who is a generational talent) this is the case.
This year stuff it. For a bit of fun and excitement not to mention comparison I am going with pretty much the team below. A few I will wait to see how they go/ where they play in preseason. Rooks are just place holders until named. Daicos is the only exception as need reliable capt every week.
Def: Young, NWM, Howe, Coleman, Williams, Coffield. (Pink, Gibcus)
Mid: Daicos, Miller, Day, Flanders, JHF, Guthrie, Callahan, Reid. (Curtain, Clark Mannagh)
Ruck: Grundy Xerri. (Livingston)
Fwd: Macrae, Adams, Fisher, Billings, Jordan, Harmes. (Macrae, Cadman)
Obviously if someone under $550k is lighting up preseason due to a positional change then they need to form part of the team.
So there it is. Fairly solid.
Now just sit back and watch the pre season unfold.
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This should be of interest..
https://coachespanel.tv/44-most-relevant-elijah-tsatas/
https://coachespanel.tv/44-most-relevant-elijah-tsatas/
It's all a bit contrived / fictitious, but he would need to go at around 135-odd avg to avoid value erosion over the first 6-8 wks, e.g..
Can post some stuff if of interest, but it is fairly dry and based around assumptions on MN etc.
And your point around C/VC is spot on 👍
Fading a topliner can work well if they have an early hiccup (Stewart / Laird) / can leave you trailing the pack if they manage to maintain a high level straight out of the starting gate.
Just one where you make a call and hope it breaks your way, really.
Can post some stuff if of interest, but it is fairly dry and based around assumptions on MN etc.
And your point around C/VC is spot on 👍
Fading a topliner can work well if they have an early hiccup (Stewart / Laird) / can leave you trailing the pack if they manage to maintain a high level straight out of the starting gate.
Just one where you make a call and hope it breaks your way, really.
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Picking Bont purely for the VC and C. This is the first year in a while I'd struggle to predict 115+ averages for more than 2-3 players. It will no doubt happen, but trying to pick who they are early isn't easy.
Bont is a walk up 120+ and I can't say that about anyone else. Easy pick despite the lack of value.
Bont is a walk up 120+ and I can't say that about anyone else. Easy pick despite the lack of value.
Not loving many of the value picks through the mid/ fwds currently but I'm sure something will happen pre-season to change that.
Think Gus Brayshaw might move back into a bigger mid role with Clayton likely underdone.
Backing LDU and Freoshaw to be the two big movers into the top 6-8mids hopefully.
Like most, got absolutely zero clue about the forwards.
Think Gus Brayshaw might move back into a bigger mid role with Clayton likely underdone.
Backing LDU and Freoshaw to be the two big movers into the top 6-8mids hopefully.
Like most, got absolutely zero clue about the forwards.