Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
- Start date
HNY all! Forgive me if he’s been addressed previously - but what are people’s thoughts on Cam Guthrie? There was a bit of interest last year given the Selwood retirement and aging Dangerfield, that Cam would become the outright leader of the cats engine room, but injury really got the better of him and restricted him to just the first 6 games.
As a result he starts 2024 at a price of about 75, which based on his last 3 years averages of 103,113,99, could suggest he could be anywhere between 20-30 points under priced? While I doubt he goes 110, if he can get back to about a 100 avg is he a worthwhile stepping stone/ someone we can ride out during the byes?
As a result he starts 2024 at a price of about 75, which based on his last 3 years averages of 103,113,99, could suggest he could be anywhere between 20-30 points under priced? While I doubt he goes 110, if he can get back to about a 100 avg is he a worthwhile stepping stone/ someone we can ride out during the byes?
I am certainly interested in him & tracking his preseason - believe he is 100% fit now, apparently ballet has really helped his foot issue :-
https://au.sports.yahoo.com/afl-cam...-following-injury-riddled-2023-051420902.html
Very good article about him on the Coaches Panel site I read also :-
https://coachespanel.tv/48-most-relevant-cam-guthrie/
Key parts :-
When considering if Cam Guthrie is the right player for your starting squad, you need to consider four primary considerations for you to process before either selecting him in your starting squad or fading your interest. The first is his role in the Cats midfield; the second is Geelong’s opening fixtures; and lastly, there is the overall structural importance of midprice players for fantasy in 2024.
The Geelong Football Club are in an interesting position. Last year, they had the most players of the AFL club attend a centre bounce. Thirty players (including rucks) went through there. Do they still allow some older crew to lead the midfield pack? Or do they phase them out in favour of the younger crew? Cam Guthrie (31), Patrick Dangerfield (33), Tom Atkins (28), Jack Bowes (25) and new mature-age recruit Shaun Mannagh (26) are all over 25. Then there’s the young brigade 22 under Tanner Bruhn, Mitch Knevitt, Max Holmes, Jhye Clark & George Stevens.
Arguably, there’s not just a role but a need for him. That role is as a midfielder present at centre bounce, not just a wingman who gets his hands on it at stoppages. In 2023, he averaged 58% attendance at CBA; in 2022, it was 65%, and in 2021, it was 68%.
Whenever you start a midprice/breakout player, you want to be rewarded with a favourable role and a fixture that could allow for that scoring upside. Geelong has that fixture, taking on many more favourable scoring matchups using 2023 data. Here’s who they play over the opening six weeks of the season:
@Shaunpro1 is the cats expert on the site so keen on his views
https://au.sports.yahoo.com/afl-cam...-following-injury-riddled-2023-051420902.html
Very good article about him on the Coaches Panel site I read also :-
https://coachespanel.tv/48-most-relevant-cam-guthrie/
Key parts :-
When considering if Cam Guthrie is the right player for your starting squad, you need to consider four primary considerations for you to process before either selecting him in your starting squad or fading your interest. The first is his role in the Cats midfield; the second is Geelong’s opening fixtures; and lastly, there is the overall structural importance of midprice players for fantasy in 2024.
The Geelong Football Club are in an interesting position. Last year, they had the most players of the AFL club attend a centre bounce. Thirty players (including rucks) went through there. Do they still allow some older crew to lead the midfield pack? Or do they phase them out in favour of the younger crew? Cam Guthrie (31), Patrick Dangerfield (33), Tom Atkins (28), Jack Bowes (25) and new mature-age recruit Shaun Mannagh (26) are all over 25. Then there’s the young brigade 22 under Tanner Bruhn, Mitch Knevitt, Max Holmes, Jhye Clark & George Stevens.
Arguably, there’s not just a role but a need for him. That role is as a midfielder present at centre bounce, not just a wingman who gets his hands on it at stoppages. In 2023, he averaged 58% attendance at CBA; in 2022, it was 65%, and in 2021, it was 68%.
Whenever you start a midprice/breakout player, you want to be rewarded with a favourable role and a fixture that could allow for that scoring upside. Geelong has that fixture, taking on many more favourable scoring matchups using 2023 data. Here’s who they play over the opening six weeks of the season:
- Round One | St Kilda (GMHBA)
- Round Two | Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
- Round Three | Hawthorn (MCG)
- Round Four | Western Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval)
- Round Five | North Melbourne (GMHBA)
- Round Six | Brisbane (Gabba)
@Shaunpro1 is the cats expert on the site so keen on his views
The other thing is Carlton has 2 byes - in round 2 (with Bris) & round 14 (with 5 other teams). Freo have just the 1 bye which is in round 13 which they share with just 1other team (Port)
Yes agree - Bris/North/Syd/GWS have their final bye in round 12 so potentially you could hold Chapman till then before flicking him to Coleman/Sheezel/Lloyd etc depending on how your team is travelling/ trade situation etc.
Point being that with Freo having just 1 bye & at that point of the season, it adds to the appeal of Chapman.
Point being that with Freo having just 1 bye & at that point of the season, it adds to the appeal of Chapman.
The twist this year with the later byes is that if you wish to avoid too many Rd 0 teams you will be considering a number of keepers from teams like the Crows (Laird, Dawson), Hawthorn (Sicily), St Kilda (Marshall, Sinclair) and the Bulldogs (Bont, English, Libba, Macrae). And they all have the Rd 15 bye. Then add a few Rd 0 keepers you are willing to start with, say Naicos for starters, and it gets messy quite quickly.
