Position 2024: MIDFIELD DISCUSSION

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Essendon
#22
Anyone else interested in Ollie Wines at 460k?
I think there is reasonable value here and a guy who could be flipped at some point for a nice 75-100k profit.
Not a world beating pick but if you find yourself with that sort of money to fill a last spot at M5-6 I think he should be considered.
I’m honestly not sure he’s even best 22.. seems like there isn’t a spot for him as an inside bull mid and he’s a liability everywhere else. If he can’t reinvent himself in some way I can see him being more a depth option and who scores 70-80 when he plays. I’d steer well clear.. if nothing else you’re locking in a guaranteed trade cause he will never be a keeper. But even best case he exceeds expectations, I still can’t see him going above 100 and you probably end up bleeding points against anyone else who has a better value pick or got a better value pick throughout the year.
 
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#23
I’m honestly not sure he’s even best 22.. seems like there isn’t a spot for him as an inside bull mid and he’s a liability everywhere else. If he can’t reinvent himself in some way I can see him being more a depth option and who scores 70-80 when he plays. I’d steer well clear.. if nothing else you’re locking in a guaranteed trade cause he will never be a keeper. But even best case he exceeds expectations, I still can’t see him going above 100 and you probably end up bleeding points against anyone else who has a better value pick or got a better value pick throughout the year.
I tend to agree, Horne Francis has become a bit of a clearance beast and with the improvement of Butters and Rozee, Wines looks a bit left behind, maybe they could trial him in some kind of half back role?
 
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Essendon
#24
I tend to agree, Horne Francis has become a bit of a clearance beast and with the improvement of Butters and Rozee, Wines looks a bit left behind, maybe they could trial him in some kind of half back role?
Yeah it’s hard to say where he could go. Seems too slow and doesn’t use the ball well enough.. he’s suited to the one role that he’s been passed by younger guys on. He’ll probably end up as a half forward (badly) and then fall out of the team as it becomes clear he doesn’t have the ability to pivot to a different role.
 
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#25
I’m honestly not sure he’s even best 22.. seems like there isn’t a spot for him as an inside bull mid and he’s a liability everywhere else. If he can’t reinvent himself in some way I can see him being more a depth option and who scores 70-80 when he plays. I’d steer well clear.. if nothing else you’re locking in a guaranteed trade cause he will never be a keeper. But even best case he exceeds expectations, I still can’t see him going above 100 and you probably end up bleeding points against anyone else who has a better value pick or got a better value pick throughout the year.
Thanks for the reply, I thought I heard Port were putting him back as the inside bull, maybe it was just a preseason fluff piece. I'll keep an eye on it, cheers mate.
 

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#26
Anyone else interested in Ollie Wines at 460k?
I think there is reasonable value here and a guy who could be flipped at some point for a nice 75-100k profit.
Not a world beating pick but if you find yourself with that sort of money to fill a last spot at M5-6 I think he should be considered.
Sub $350k and I may have been interested but no interest at his current price range as I have trouble seeing significant upside or the best case scenario eventuating given his reliance on contested footy and accumulating a lot of the ball to compensate for his poor kicking. Game situations may not be in his favour whether he is not in the first choice mix and feel for quite a while the midfield has been too one paced with too many similar players in those limited spots.

Tough to place any confidence that he could get off to a fast start and identifying when to jump off due to the variance.
 

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#27
Thanks for providing a detailed response, it's exactly what I'm looking for.

Like all decisions in this game it's very dynamic, as in what I choose to do here has ramifications on all lines particularly with the starting setup.

Having Amon allows me to run with a 6 'premo' setup in the mids, he's priced at 86 and I can't see too many players in that price bracket either Def. or Mid. that's likely to become a keeper. He's definitely a wait n see but so far all reports point to him continuing the same role that he had for the last 6 games where he averaged 103 even with a 76 in the last game (100 AFLF pts) so must have had a few clangers and I note that his DE dropped by 10%, take out that 76 (I know, cherry picking) and he averaged 113 PPG. A 103 average would have him as the 6th highest averaging defender last season.

He kicked 3 goals in those last 6 games (a bit like Rioli at the Tigers) but more importantly averaged 2.5 kick ins/game. Just as importantly, he had high uncontested marks which may or may not be part of the Hawks way of dealing with transition play.

If, and it's a big if, he continues to train as a defender in the pre season and then play as a defender in the season proper then he's a Monty to get defender status. I've got Chapman, Williams, Coffield, Gibcus and Reid in my defence line, so a little insurance will be handy.

Obviously it could all go pear shaped and he's played as a winger, if that happens then there'll have to be a correction trade or two used. Right now I'm willing to take the risk, if he keeps ticking the boxes then I'll roll with him
No worries.

I feel it is a slippery slope when starting to exclude the low score and/or extrapolating out a limited sample size over the length of the season as we can use it to make a case for nearly anyone over everyone and I have trouble seeing Amon hitting those 27+ disposals and around 8+marks on a consistent basis compared to players that seem to have an established scoring pattern around the hundreds over the past few seasons.

If he was a forward then I would be entertaining the option but I feel he is best viewed as an option over a limited rather than an extended period given the longer he is in your side those sub 80 odd scores can outweigh the 110-120+ scores needed to match his competition down back and a lack of value at the current price if he scores low nineties.

In the fantasy formats I like to plan for the worst, so usually I will not factor into consideration potential dual position status as I would prefer to have confidence that the player would be a solid selection in their current position, if that possibility never eventuated. Depends on your risk profile as well, as it could work out if you feel your ”perceived risk” is low but on the flip side it could also further compound the situation if he underperforms then it needs to be determined what the larger priority will be early on between missed rookies/cash generators, failed rookies/cash generators, replacing injured/suspended players, ensuring 18 on the field, structural changes, fixing midpricers, grabbing premiums early, etc which could impact the length of time stuck with him.

Then also the opportunity cost (depending on structure) if the saving in the middle allows cash to be used elsewhere or if an overspend in the middle means greater reliance on high variance options in other positions on limited cash and nailing your other picks.
 
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#37
Can see a team with Laird, Libba, LDU, Butters, Walsh and Brayshaw, all offering value for an injury or unusual low score last year, or just improvement.

Hard to work out in a 5 person mid who goes. Libba low % ownership yet with Smith out, Bont maybe more forward, CBA will be his still.

5 person mid importance comes from no.Bont Oliver or Petracca in this team.
 
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#38
Can see a team with Laird, Libba, LDU, Butters, Walsh and Brayshaw, all offering value for an injury or unusual low score last year, or just improvement.

Hard to work out in a 5 person mid who goes. Libba low % ownership yet with Smith out, Bont maybe more forward, CBA will be his still.
Just be cautious about placing too much emphasis on CBA for players. A centre bounce attendance only occurs to start a quarter or when a goal is kicked, no bonus points are received from a CBA and it does not automatically infer that the player will attend every stoppage in between CBA’s. Moreso when a common moniker for his coach is Mr Magnets, as players may start forward and then move into the midfield for around the ground stoppages or start at the CBA and then rotate forward, etc. Are a significant portion of his points (disposals, contested possessions, tackles) registered from the centre bounce or around the ground stoppages?
 
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