Strategy 2024: Round 5 Trades

[BlufBlufShuv]

Grundy will be guaranteed to miss two games over the next two months, obviously starting with this week. He has Witts r 6, Shrek probably r 9 mixed in with a few softer matchups. Post second bye Swans ruck matchups do really lighten up however, but Grundy's performance against the easiest matchup in the game in the Eagles should give you pause about keeping him (they do have more SCG games post bye which in theory helps rucks).

The ruck slots are critical slots to have two of the top 2 or 3 rucks as teams get closer to full premium. Mids you can get away with having a 105 guy at M8 if you have other premo mids outperforming, even by just a little; its also easier, much easier, to pick up a mid with a favourable draw/coming into form who is underpriced compared to the ruck line and for them to be in that top mid bracket ROS. If you have an R8 (Grundy's current average) going at 103 and the R2 is going at 125 (English' current average at R2) the points each week really hurts, but also the fact you will be priced out in a lot of scenarios to get to an R 2/3.

I don't have an answer to the Grundy question as I'm a non-owner, but I would look hard at Meek if it were me, especially if you have missed other cash gen opportunities and maybe just accept its a two trade solution in that scenario.

 

[Feerits Elf]

I'm not sure I share the same importance you are giving to trades either - they gave us 40 of them. You can use maximum trades with boosts every week and not run out until Round 17...

It's because trades have a value. You can sell your house in your desired suburb and go and buy a cheaper house in another suburb with better growth, then use the appreciation to buy a better house in your desired suburb. But you've worn twice the transactional costs, stamp duty etc. such that you might have been better off building equity in the original house and buying the target house direct from that (or analogous with keeping Grundy for the year - staying in your original house!).

Your competitors start with the same amount of trades as you do. If they can get to the same target (English) in less trades than you can and use the trades saved to improve their team in ways you can't, you're beaten.

 

[Plan B]

Need some advice i got $123,500 in the bank,
Thinking about trading ambrossio, grundy, powell and bringing clohesy, steele and gawn leaves me with $0 balance. Thanks

I did almost that exact trade. Very happy I brought in Gawn with that 139, and put the C on him. Clohesy and Steele also brought in. what did u end up doing?

 

[Montyjnr]

It's because trades have a value. You can sell your house in your desired suburb and go and buy a cheaper house in another suburb with better growth, then use the appreciation to buy a better house in your desired suburb. But you've worn twice the transactional costs, stamp duty etc. such that you might have been better off building equity in the original house and buying the target house direct from that.

Your competitors start with the same amount of trades as you do. If they can get to the same target (English) in less trades than you can and use the trades saved to improve their team in ways you can't, you're beaten.

Whose to say those saved trades will actually improve their team though?

Someone who was frugal with trades all season may get to Round 19 and see that Merrett has a tough draw to finish the season and LDU has an easy draw so makes that luxury switch - but then they end up averaging similar anyway. I would just prefer to extract 150K from Grundy to Meek now during the critical upgrade season period to be honest than be put in that scenario.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Another thing to mention about Grundy vs say an English/Marshall/Gawn is the latter three have recent form of going on these long stretches of just mega scoring. Gawn has just capped off a 5 week run of ~ 143 average. English went at 145 for 5 weeks last year, and Marshall went at 135 for 5 weeks at the end of the Saints home and away 2023 season.

If you have a ruck going at 95-105 in your team instead of one of these players its really hard to face up to week after week, especially when you factor in the VC/C angle an uber ruck provides. As you get close to full premo you really want to have the very best rucks in your team if you can get them.

 

[donnybuang]

It's because trades have a value. You can sell your house in your desired suburb and go and buy a cheaper house in another suburb with better growth, then use the appreciation to buy a better house in your desired suburb. But you've worn twice the transactional costs, stamp duty etc. such that you might have been better off building equity in the original house and buying the target house direct from that (or analogous with keeping Grundy for the year - staying in your original house!).

Your competitors start with the same amount of trades as you do. If they can get to the same target (English) in less trades than you can and use the trades saved to improve their team in ways you can't, you're beaten.

It feels like the same strategy of those who went Hogan or Mackay. Midpricers who were being ridden for a quick cash grab, knowing they'd have to trade them out at some stage.

 

[donnybuang]

Are we expecting Z Reid back in two weeks? Due to other problems, I've held him. Contemplating just riding him out now.

Blown out to 4 weeks now. Bye bye Zach

 

[Manikato1]

FanFooty providing an interesting take on the Lions/Dees game.

 

[bluesbrothers]

Was planning to trade Grundy to a mid this week. Steele represents best value but I already have Bont, Libba, and Laird from a R15 bye situation. Do I get Steele and trade the worst performing (possibly 2) of them at their bye, or just ignore Steele for the year? Both strategies have their merits. I can afford any mid, and Green is highest on the list, but from a price point of view Steele is an excellent buy this week. Thoughts?

 

[IDIG]

So far I’ve gone
out: Bramble, Jordon
in: Young, Lohmann

Not sure Young is the pick I should be making at my current rank but it’s either him or Yeo so going the safer route.

Means I’ll be keeping Grundy and passing on Meek, which I’m not particularly happy about.

EDIT: yeah nah, Grundy to English and Bramble survives a week!

 

[IDIG]

Another thing to mention about Grundy vs say an English/Marshall/Gawn is the latter three have recent form of going on these long stretches of just mega scoring. Gawn has just capped off a 5 week run of ~ 143 average. English went at 145 for 5 weeks last year, and Marshall went at 135 for 5 weeks at the end of the Saints home and away 2023 season.

If you have a ruck going at 95-105 in your team instead of one of these players its really hard to face up to week after week, especially when you factor in the VC/C angle an uber ruck provides. As you get close to full premo you really want to have the very best rucks in your team if you can get them.

Just when I’d finally made peace with keeping Grundy I read this 🤣

 

[freowho]

So far I’ve gone
out: Bramble, Jordon
in: Young, Lohmann

Not sure Young is the pick I should be making at my current rank but it’s either him or Yeo so going the safer route.

Means I’ll be keeping Grundy and passing on Meek, which I’m not particularly happy about.

Use a boost.

 

[freowho]

Was planning to trade Grundy to a mid this week. Steele represents best value but I already have Bont, Libba, and Laird from a R15 bye situation. Do I get Steele and trade the worst performing (possibly 2) of them at their bye, or just ignore Steele for the year? Both strategies have their merits. I can afford any mid, and Green is highest on the list, but from a price point of view Steele is an excellent buy this week. Thoughts?

Rnd 15 is easy to fix. Grab Steele.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778611243751788666

View: https://twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1778611243751788666

Not how I'd talk about my #1 ruck if he was secure in that position. Big red flag..

I've got a question which might inform the Grundy to Meek thinking:

Is Grundy a ruck keeper at $482k if he goes 102?​

Reason I ask is because he's averaging 103, but he had 139 in Rd 0 (when Gawn was ill) and then that 71 mare against Collingwood and with those outliers disregarded his average is almost identical at 102.

Six rucks are averaging 100+ so far (disregarding Jackson because he's available as a forward):

1. Gawn ($583.7k) 130.6, including a low of 72
2. English ($715.1k) 124.5 (hasn't gone under 117)
3. Marshall ($639.1k) 114.8, including a low of 79
4. Nankervis ($583.1k) 109.8, including a low of 73
5. Xerri ($407.4k) 105.0, including a low of 90
6. Grundy ($481.7k) 103.2, including a low of 71

Gawn and Xerri obviously the pick of the bunch for value, but Grundy is running third (ahead of English, Marshall and Nank). Xerri was in 6.2% of teams to start, so well done to those coaches, but the vast majority went with Gawn and Grundy.

The problem is that Grundy's best score (139) and Gawn's worst (72) occurred in Rd 0 when Gawn was ill, which didn't count for SC points. So although Grundy has scored at that super premium level in a 2024 match for premiership points, nobody who owns him has got the benefit, whereas they all ate his 71. Meanwhile the same coaches love Gawn because he's averaged 145 for them.

I'm not suggesting Grundy will average 100+ (discounting the 139) for the year - I just don't know. But then I can't get a read on what Meek will do for the year either. However the thinking on Meek appears to be to:

• punt on him as a R2 keeper in lieu of Grundy for $150k less, foregoing English/Marshall; or
• ride him for $100k or so then pivot to a bottomed out English/Marshall (at the overall cost of 2 trades).

I'm just struggling to see the value in jettisoning Grundy. The whole reason he was picked was to keep pace as near as possible with English/Marshall for $160-235k less until he could be upgraded to one of them, and he's not been a complete bust in that regard. Unless you think he's been playing above himself and he's closer to a 90-95 guy now, why burn a trade to turn your back on him for a speculative midpricer (at the cost of a trade) when you'll have English/Marshall soon enough anyway?

The problem with freeing up the $150k for upgrades elsewhere is that by the time you can upgrade Meek to a genuine premium ruck (say Rd 10-11), that money is spent and you need to make further trades to find the cash. If you hold Grundy the illiquid $150k is held in equity ready to be used and those trades are saved (or the cash is used to upgrade a fattened Sharp/Williams/Dempsey/Reid).

Fair point, noting that last year Tim English could only manage an 88 against Marc Pittonet, a 90 against Ned Reeves and a 99 against Scott Lycett.

This is the optimal way to generate 150K in my team to get Tom Green right now though given all my other 300K+ cash cows still have money to make.

I'm not sure I share the same importance you are giving to trades either - they gave us 40 of them. You can use maximum trades with boosts every week and not run out until Round 17...

What should I be saving them for now exactly?

Grundy will be guaranteed to miss two games over the next two months, obviously starting with this week. He has Witts r 6, Shrek probably r 9 mixed in with a few softer matchups. Post second bye Swans ruck matchups do really lighten up however, but Grundy's performance against the easiest matchup in the game in the Eagles should give you pause about keeping him (they do have more SCG games post bye which in theory helps rucks).

The ruck slots are critical slots to have two of the top 2 or 3 rucks as teams get closer to full premium. Mids you can get away with having a 105 guy at M8 if you have other premo mids outperforming, even by just a little; its also easier, much easier, to pick up a mid with a favourable draw/coming into form who is underpriced compared to the ruck line and for them to be in that top mid bracket ROS. If you have an R8 (Grundy's current average) going at 103 and the R2 is going at 125 (English' current average at R2) the points each week really hurts, but also the fact you will be priced out in a lot of scenarios to get to an R 2/3.

I don't have an answer to the Grundy question as I'm a non-owner, but I would look hard at Meek if it were me, especially if you have missed other cash gen opportunities and maybe just accept its a two trade solution in that scenario.

It's because trades have a value. You can sell your house in your desired suburb and go and buy a cheaper house in another suburb with better growth, then use the appreciation to buy a better house in your desired suburb. But you've worn twice the transactional costs, stamp duty etc. such that you might have been better off building equity in the original house and buying the target house direct from that (or analogous with keeping Grundy for the year - staying in your original house!).

Your competitors start with the same amount of trades as you do. If they can get to the same target (English) in less trades than you can and use the trades saved to improve their team in ways you can't, you're beaten.

Some great discussion points. Couple of points to add;

Sam Mitchell comments - listening to the entire comment, it doesn't sound quite as bad as more motivational. The journo did hit off with Meeks is leading ALL ruckman with HTA average - me thinks the journo has Meek in his side and was all too positive.

Honeyball had an interesting take - they think Meek came into side as Will Day is out as Meek gets possessions whilst Reeves get hit outs, and without Day and losing CP they even it up with Meek. They questioned when Day back in two week does Meek stay in.

Stats - I always try to look at stats which led to Heeney and Powell into my side. Meek is doing very well on possessions, HO's, elite on HTA. Only two games and was soft on scoring vs Conway yet elite vs Pies.

The whole cost of trading etc is a little overblown. If you intend to trade Grundy to English that I one trade. So going to Meek who assumes he gets to Grundys value costs one trade to generate $130k). I do value our trades and we all start with 40, so if you waste them you have less than everyone else. However, bring Meek in is the same as any 2 trades trying to generate $150k.

If it is successful it allows you get more data to work out if to go English or Marshall.

The risk is English/Marshall/Grundy start going 150-170 and Meek goes 80.

The other risk is Reeves comes back in. He did have two scores of 50 and yes had 40 HO in VFL yet Meek had 30's as well in VFL. Does feel like Sam Mitchell doesn't want to rucks for now and Hawks have been more competitive.

The last risk is Meek gets injured before he creates value.

I do see Sam Darcy as my break glass in an emergency if he gets DPP.

For me, Meek allows me to get Martin into my side this week (I dont have Jackson), so if he is a keeper then potentially I am saving $50k on his price going up.

re Grundy, he was awful at HT vs Melb and Gawn was 60-70 at HT. There were suggestions that Gawn wasn't well and given this was part of the reason Gawn was in my side R1, I think R0 was the only aberration you may want to adjust for.

 

[Connoisseur]

Surprisingly little change to this (so far). Prefer Comben and Georgiades over Lohmann but cannot afford either this round if I go with Flanders and no one else that really interest between those price ranges in the fwd line. Keeping Grundy and will reassess in RD7. Can grab Meek but it likely locks me into using my final boost next round to get rid of Livingstone and then make a decision on Grundy/Meek in RD7 and ideally move Darcy to R3.

Alternative would be going a week early on Comben and Georgiades and trading Coffield over Howes with the intention to turn Carroll into Dawson/LDU next round.
View attachment 71119

Disappointed for passing on Lohmann. Can triple downgrade for the GC duo and Comben but prefer not to go early on all and involves sitting on $300k for Carroll/Thomas to Dawson next round. Instead can grab N Martin over Comben.

Out: Coffield, Lyons and Jordon
In: Clohesy, Graham and Martin


Means running five deep down back from RD7 onwards but could allow D’Ambrosio and Williams to be traded in RD7 to grab Dawson and a rookie to push Roberts down back.

 

[Darkie]

Baker?

A fair bit of mid time just opened up at Richmond.

 

[neeld]

I have opted for:

In: T.Brown, English, & Comben
Out: D'Ambrosio, Grundy, & Fisher

Stewart, Daicos, Sheezel, Williams, T.Brown, Howes; Reid, Coffield

Laird, Butters, Serong, Miller, Steele, Roberts, McKercher, Sanders; Wilson, Carroll, Clark

English, Gawn; Livingstone

Jackson, Flanders, Powell, H Reid, Comben, Darcy; Cadman, Campbell

Trades remaining: 32/3

$102,400 ITB

Discuss.

 

[Stormzy]

Was going to go Jackson to either Marshall/Meek but with Darcy not playing I might be holding. Is it worth trading still because of Jackson's high BE and Darcy eventually coming back or do I hold and hope for Darcy to be delayed again

 

[Santoz]

Baker?

A fair bit of mid time just opened up at Richmond.

Shai?

 

[neeld]

Shai?

run out of forwards as well. he's the only bloke capable of kicking a bag