Opinion 2025: Player X v Player Y
- Thread starter Ben's Beasts
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It’s hard to split them…
Serong, Brayshaw, LDU, Dawson
Serong & Brayshaw would be the two clear standouts for me. They both have a good bye and should be spending the majority of time on ball. Splitting them really comes down to personal preference to some degree. Serong finished the year slowly, while Brayshaw dominated the back end of the season. (I just like watching/supporting Serong more than Brayshaw)
LDU is always going to average well but will inevitably have some monster scores, along with some really subpar scores throughout the season. Considering he also has the round 12 bye, I’m hoping he’s priced well and can be one of my final upgrades in the midfield post bye.
Dawson is well priced and has a good bye but there’s just too much uncertainty for me around where he’ll play and how he’ll score.
Serong, Brayshaw, LDU, Dawson
Serong & Brayshaw would be the two clear standouts for me. They both have a good bye and should be spending the majority of time on ball. Splitting them really comes down to personal preference to some degree. Serong finished the year slowly, while Brayshaw dominated the back end of the season. (I just like watching/supporting Serong more than Brayshaw)
LDU is always going to average well but will inevitably have some monster scores, along with some really subpar scores throughout the season. Considering he also has the round 12 bye, I’m hoping he’s priced well and can be one of my final upgrades in the midfield post bye.
Dawson is well priced and has a good bye but there’s just too much uncertainty for me around where he’ll play and how he’ll score.
It seems Dawson will be playing much more mid, laird going back to defence. I think Adelaide will do much better this year and there is no reason Dawson can't push to a 110ave which makes him a decent option due to his bye. My only issue is Matt Crouch imo his a one trick pony and shouldn't be in the team taking mid rotation from younger players with a lot of potential and Dawson.
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I’m not super up to date with Adelaide’s preseason reports but would agree that Laird looks likely to go down back.
That still leaves: Crouch, Rankine, Soligo, Peatling, Draper & Dawson who would all be expecting bulk minutes on ball.
Then there’s Berry, who I assume won’t be best 23 but also Rachele and even Michalanney who will also rotate on ball throughout games.
Just seems like the Adelaide midfield is too much of an unknown for me to consider Dawson currently!
That still leaves: Crouch, Rankine, Soligo, Peatling, Draper & Dawson who would all be expecting bulk minutes on ball.
Then there’s Berry, who I assume won’t be best 23 but also Rachele and even Michalanney who will also rotate on ball throughout games.
Just seems like the Adelaide midfield is too much of an unknown for me to consider Dawson currently!
If you are purely looking at the first 6 rounds, Peatling and Cerra should more than comfortably outscore Bont plus a rookie.
Main reason MP heavy teams start well and trail off a tad is the fact that they have less rookies on field, but therefore much less cash gen which bites them during upgrades when they’re steered into poorer value plays (not always a bad thing mind you!).
If we extended things to say, the mid season byes, then I’d probably shift more towards Bont plus rookie (depending on the rookie of course). Bont should be at least top 3-4 in the mids and a rookie that can make you $150k is pretty valuable. Cerra I think can score amazingly but you can’t predict when the injuries will hit, you just know they will. Think he misses too many games to be worth the risk - especially as the injury could come early and blow up his price. Peatling I see as a stepping stone type who should be close to gone at the byes if not before. Some keeper potential there but I think he averages under what you’d want to keep so he should be traded during the upgrade cadence where it suits.
Main reason MP heavy teams start well and trail off a tad is the fact that they have less rookies on field, but therefore much less cash gen which bites them during upgrades when they’re steered into poorer value plays (not always a bad thing mind you!).
If we extended things to say, the mid season byes, then I’d probably shift more towards Bont plus rookie (depending on the rookie of course). Bont should be at least top 3-4 in the mids and a rookie that can make you $150k is pretty valuable. Cerra I think can score amazingly but you can’t predict when the injuries will hit, you just know they will. Think he misses too many games to be worth the risk - especially as the injury could come early and blow up his price. Peatling I see as a stepping stone type who should be close to gone at the byes if not before. Some keeper potential there but I think he averages under what you’d want to keep so he should be traded during the upgrade cadence where it suits.
That's my take too, Cerra and Peatling should comfortably outscore Bont and a rookie over those first 6 rounds, but that's only answering half of my question and probably the most important bit.
Which combo makes more cash over the first 6 rounds?
Because of Cerra's injury risk he's a planned trade out after round 6, I know things can go awry and other stuff get's in the way, but that's my aim. He'll be upgraded to Daicos, Bont, Sheezel or Flanders, maybe to someone else who provides value, but he's definitely a short term play. If he can score at 110 (given his draw he might) then that should see him at around $580k, it won't be hard to find $50k-$80k to upgrade him to one of those mentioned earlier. The difficult thing will be trading him if he's pulling those good scores.
.Peatling is, as you say, a stepping stone and I'm under no illusions about him being a keeper, he'll ideally be traded before his bye to someone that's had theirs
Is it unrealistic to assume that initial 6 game average for Cerra, likewise, is an assumption of a 95 average unrealistic for Peatling, assuming his role eventuates? If the answer is no (it's not unrealistic), or thereabouts, then there's $250k-$300k to be made on those two.
Which combo makes more cash over the first 6 rounds?
Because of Cerra's injury risk he's a planned trade out after round 6, I know things can go awry and other stuff get's in the way, but that's my aim. He'll be upgraded to Daicos, Bont, Sheezel or Flanders, maybe to someone else who provides value, but he's definitely a short term play. If he can score at 110 (given his draw he might) then that should see him at around $580k, it won't be hard to find $50k-$80k to upgrade him to one of those mentioned earlier. The difficult thing will be trading him if he's pulling those good scores.
.Peatling is, as you say, a stepping stone and I'm under no illusions about him being a keeper, he'll ideally be traded before his bye to someone that's had theirs
Is it unrealistic to assume that initial 6 game average for Cerra, likewise, is an assumption of a 95 average unrealistic for Peatling, assuming his role eventuates? If the answer is no (it's not unrealistic), or thereabouts, then there's $250k-$300k to be made on those two.
Also going with the 2nd 3, reckon Clark and NWM will have good years and improve further, not so sure about Peatling until his role is known but he has some talent.
Whitfield turning 31 this year helps me make the decision.
Players can and do drop away sharply when they reach their certain age...as we've seen many times in years gone by.
Whitfield turning 31 this year helps me make the decision.
Players can and do drop away sharply when they reach their certain age...as we've seen many times in years gone by.
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I think it's wrong to be upgrading a Cerra type in R6 to gain little points when you should be upgrading to get rookies off. It's even worse to be burning boosts to do the higher priced MP "upgrade".
If you don't think a player holds you through, then you should probably be avoiding them to begin with.
If you don't think a player holds you through, then you should probably be avoiding them to begin with.
I think Under the Dome is spot on the money here - with the value plays you should usually approach them as being last upgraded unless something happens that drastically changes that (injury, horrendous form, risk of huge cash loss from a low score, etc). If targeting a 6 week cash gen boost, it needs to be someone cheaper that can string some spike scores. Problem is those types are generally cheaper for a reason! Maybe a KPF with a favourable draw is a chance but it’s very risky.
The other thing to factor in is the cost of the trade, and the cost of locking in a planned trade.
Bont + Rookie is 1 keeper and 1 trade to move on the rookie (plus presumable another trade elsewhere to get 1 premium). The Cerra + Peatling option is 2 trades, plus at least one more to get the cash for the desired upgrades. So one extra trade for 6 weeks for better scoring which might not even be that valuable with so many best 18 rounds.
I personally hate locking in a trade that far ahead of time. What happens if you have 2 injuries in round 6, do you stick to your plan of trading Peatling or Cerra? Same for other under performing guys or issues. If there is a standout value pick going into round 7 do pass on Bont to get them, of pay up for a trade when everyone else is saving money on the cheaper option. So much can happen over 6 rounds and I reckon more often that not, your plans will need to change. If you have to hold either a few weeks past your intended week, do they throw some poor scores and lose some of that cash? If you stick to your guns do you undo your points gain by not fixing other more glaring issues? It’s too volatile a period of the season to be so sure ahead of time which 2 of your 31 players you’ll be trading.
Last thought - I personally think if there is a player you are absolutely sure you want to trade in, then I’d start them. Keep your options to get the value guys or the ones who’ve stepped up and broken out (or have had favourable role/draw changes due to factors). If you don’t start them you’re not only down vs everyone who started them, but you’re also potentially down on a good trade in option because you are getting in the guy you didn’t start instead of the best option for that week.
The other thing to factor in is the cost of the trade, and the cost of locking in a planned trade.
Bont + Rookie is 1 keeper and 1 trade to move on the rookie (plus presumable another trade elsewhere to get 1 premium). The Cerra + Peatling option is 2 trades, plus at least one more to get the cash for the desired upgrades. So one extra trade for 6 weeks for better scoring which might not even be that valuable with so many best 18 rounds.
I personally hate locking in a trade that far ahead of time. What happens if you have 2 injuries in round 6, do you stick to your plan of trading Peatling or Cerra? Same for other under performing guys or issues. If there is a standout value pick going into round 7 do pass on Bont to get them, of pay up for a trade when everyone else is saving money on the cheaper option. So much can happen over 6 rounds and I reckon more often that not, your plans will need to change. If you have to hold either a few weeks past your intended week, do they throw some poor scores and lose some of that cash? If you stick to your guns do you undo your points gain by not fixing other more glaring issues? It’s too volatile a period of the season to be so sure ahead of time which 2 of your 31 players you’ll be trading.
Last thought - I personally think if there is a player you are absolutely sure you want to trade in, then I’d start them. Keep your options to get the value guys or the ones who’ve stepped up and broken out (or have had favourable role/draw changes due to factors). If you don’t start them you’re not only down vs everyone who started them, but you’re also potentially down on a good trade in option because you are getting in the guy you didn’t start instead of the best option for that week.