Position Defender Discussion

[Merv Neagle]

As requested by @Merv Neagle
A Witherden:
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Career disposals avg: 18.86
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 19: 92.35 from 34 (10/34 below 80, 24/34 below 100, 3/34 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 19: 54.29 from 17 (16/17 below 80, 17/17 below 100)

Only 1 100 scored in 2019 which was the 10th for his career and the 1st time that it occurred with less than 27 disposals.

Thanks very much, Happy new year!

 

[Connoisseur]

@Connoisseur thanks for the offer! How about potential break out crow Wayne Milera? Shoulder issues last year hampered what was meant to be his break out year in 2019. He has been played all over the place and my hunch is he won't get enough of it unless he is playing off the HBF where people will use him and he is also quite a nice intercept/contested mark. If he looks like his will be settled off the HBF all year then I am interested.

W Milera:





Career disposals avg: 16.93
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 17: 84.5 from 30 (11/30 below 80, 23/30 below 100)
SC avg when disposals below 17: 53.03 from 30 (28/30 below 80, 30/30 below 100)

 

[Blaze]

W Milera:
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Career disposals avg: 16.93
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 17: 84.5 from 30 (11/30 below 80, 23/30 below 100)
SC avg when disposals below 17: 53.03 from 30 (28/30 below 80, 30/30 below 100)

Thanks! It is worth nothing that up until his shoulder injury Wayne had scores of 82, 105, 109, 86 followed by an AC injury in R5 and then being played in lots of different roles when he came back in the side around 5 weeks later. I can definitely see a 90 average for Wayne in 2020 with a good preseason but he is awkwardly priced. Likely too risky to be worthwhile but he would be a kind of fun POD

 

[Connoisseur]

T Doedee:




2018 Pre Bye Avg: 81.85 from 13 (5/13 below 80, 10/13 below 100, 0/13 120+)
2018 Post Bye Avg: 82.86 from 7 (4/7 below 80, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

Career Wins Avg: 85 from 11 (4/11 below 80, 7/11 below 100, 0/11 120+)
Career Losses Avg: 76.5 from 10 (6/10 below 80, 8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

Career Disposals Avg: 17.57
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 18: 95.91 from 11 (3/11 below 80, 5/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 18: 64.5 from 10 (7/10 below 80, 10/10 below 100)

Career Marks Avg: 5.43
SC avg when marks equal/exceed 6: 90.3 from 10 (3/10 below 80, 6/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
SC avg when marks below 6: 72.45 from 11 (7/11 below 80, 9/11 below 100)

2 games below 50% TOG (RD18 2018 (24) and RD1 2019 (56))
Career SC avg inclusive of those matches: 80.95 from 21 (10/21 below 80, 15/21 below 100, 1/21 120+)
Career SC avg exclusive of those matches: 85.26 from 19 (8/21 below 80, 13/21 below 100, 1/21 120+)

 

[Connoisseur]

S Hill:






2013 to 2016 involved all 4 seasons over an 85 avg for a combined avg of 92.20 from 76 matches.

 

[Connoisseur]

D Houston:





2019 Wins Avg: 91.64 from 11 (2/11 below 80, 8/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2019 Losses Avg: 86.7 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
2019 Pre Bye Avg: 89.82 from 11 (2/11 below 80, 10/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2019 Post Bye Avg: 88.7 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 6/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

Career Disposals Avg: 18.27
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 19: 92.85 from 26 (6/26 below 100, 19/26 below 100, 2/26 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 19: 70.91 from 33 (22/33 below 80, 32/33 below 100)

Career Marks Avg: 5.12
SC avg when marks equal/exceed 6: 89.87 from 23 (7/23 below 80, 17/23 below 100, 2/23 120+)
SC avg when marks below 6: from 74.64 from 36 (21/36 below 80, 34/36 below 100)

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

^ Hmmm, only needs 19 touches to go at 92-93. Big watch for that midfield role time in the preseason games me thinks.

 

[Connoisseur]

^ Hmmm, only needs 19 touches to go at 92-93. Big watch for that midfield role time in the preseason games me thinks.

With a high disposal efficiency, increased contested possessions and tackles attributed to a move to the midfield, it should bode well to maintaining an average in the low to mid 90’s.

 

[Manikato1]

With a high disposal efficiency, increased contested possessions and tackles attributed to a move to the midfield, it should bode well to maintaining an average in the low to mid 90’s.

Not sure that anyone buying a ticket on the Houston train is interested in a low to mid 90's ave. The period that people are basing there decision on is when he went into the mids from rd 19. Numbers before that which were modest apart from the odd big game only distort his ave down. Houston ticket holders are happy with that because they are hoping he plays mid a majority of the time and reproduces the 105 ave he had in those last 5 games. Low to mid 90's ave only puts you on the fringe of top 10 defenders and IMO for his asking price vs risk that is not where you want to be. The issue is if he plays mids consistently. If he gets moved down back during the season to plug a hole then Houston we have a problem(sorry could not help myself with that one).

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Not sure that anyone buying a ticket on the Houston train is interested in a low to mid 90's ave. The period that people are basing there decision on is when he went into the mids from rd 19. Numbers before that which were modest apart from the odd big game only distort his ave down. Houston ticket holders are happy with that because they are hoping he plays mid a majority of the time and reproduces the 105 ave he had in those last 5 games. Low to mid 90's ave only puts you on the fringe of top 10 defenders and IMO for his asking price vs risk that is not where you want to be. The issue is if he plays mids consistently. If he gets moved down back during the season to plug a hole then Houston we have a problem(sorry could not help myself with that one).

I think Connoroisseur is just playing it on the safe side by predicting his floor as a mid

Much like Dawson, owners would be hoping for more but feeling secure with what seems like a nice solid floor.

 

[Connoisseur]

I think Connoroisseur is just playing it on the safe side by predicting his floor as a mid

Much like Dawson, owners would be hoping for more but feeling secure with what seems like a nice solid floor.

Correct.

 

[All is Wells]

^ Hmmm, only needs 19 touches to go at 92-93. Big watch for that midfield role time in the preseason games me thinks.

That's the benchmark. I'd say it'd be around 23-24 to achieve that 93 avg which is still fairly promising

 

[benderiffic]

Anyone else finding this the toughest line? Really can't see a lot of value outside of Doc and Roberton and they come with question marks

 

[Darkie]

Anyone else finding this the toughest line? Really can't see a lot of value outside of Doc and Roberton and they come with question marks

I think that Sicily, Doedee and Hill are probably the other main value options. Personally I have Sicily and Hill, and am considering Doedee more after it was pointed out that he averaged more like 85 in his debut year if you take out a low TOG game in round 18 (24 SC from 43%).

 

[Santoz]

Anyone else finding this the toughest line? Really can't see a lot of value outside of Doc and Roberton and they come with question marks

I have Sicily, Doc & Milera in my side as I feel they all represent value. I thought Milera would breakout last season so will roll with him again. Caleb Daniel is my highest priced defender and may improve but I don't really expect him to.

 

[BigRuss]

Anyone else finding this the toughest line? Really can't see a lot of value outside of Doc and Roberton and they come with question marks

Bit of value in that dangerous 450-500 bracket this year I think in the Crisp/Houston/Dawson types. Outside of that I don’t see a great deal personally.

If we all come to the consensus that Doc is a gift then it’s really only a matter of picking 2 blokes that you think will be around the 95 mark as I think Lloyd is one you can fairly confidently wait on for a drop.

I like Sicily as there’s definite upside and I’ll likely take a flutter on Houston or Dawson though I’m super surprised so many are so keen on Dawson this early in the year.

 

[PC]

Bit of value in that dangerous 450-500 bracket this year I think in the Crisp/Houston/Dawson types. Outside of that I don’t see a great deal personally.

If we all come to the consensus that Doc is a gift then it’s really only a matter of picking 2 blokes that you think will be around the 95 mark as I think Lloyd is one you can fairly confidently wait on for a drop.

I like Sicily as there’s definite upside and I’ll likely take a flutter on Houston or Dawson though I’m super surprised so many are so keen on Dawson this early in the year.

No Doc in my side at the moment. Replaced him with Houston.

Everyone is on the Dawson train because of your recommendation BR!! (I know I am...)

 

[BigRuss]

No Doc in my side at the moment. Replaced him with Houston.

Everyone is on the Dawson train because of your recommendation BR!! (I know I am...)

I’ll stand by it, reckon he has genuine A grade potential but he’s by no means a banker. The D/F pairing with Hill makes him just that little bit more enticing though.

I still think he’s a midfielder but we’ll have to wait and see how the pre season plays out.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Dawson is starting to get the hype that Witherden had last year.
Both young players with good foot skills. Both finished the seasons strongly averaging 97 over the last 5 games.
Any concern Dawson follows suit and has an average year?
Also is it worth looking at Witherden for this year? Write of last year as a bust, now take Hodges spot as the quarterback and get the score people were expecting last season?

 

[Seymour Skinner]

I'm not really liking the Dawson pick.
I'm hoping he goes well enough to make Lloyd's price drop, but not well enough to make me regret not picking him lol.