Position Defender Discussion

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#41
Dawson is starting to get the hype that Witherden had last year.
Both young players with good foot skills. Both finished the seasons strongly averaging 97 over the last 5 games.
Any concern Dawson follows suit and has an average year?
Also is it worth looking at Witherden for this year? Write of last year as a bust, now take Hodges spot as the quarterback and get the score people were expecting last season?
A Witherden:
53 Matches
10 100+
1 100+ when he has less than 27 disposals.
95 Tackles at 1.8 per game
214 contested possessions at 4 per game
328 Marks at 6.2 per game
1104 disposals at 20.8 per game

J Dawson:
25 Matches
6 100+
4 100+ when he has less than 27 disposals.
76 Tackles at 3 per game
143 contested possessions at 5.7 per game
134 marks at 5.4 per game
435 disposals at 17.4 per game


Hard to see Witherden managing a worthwhile avg (90-95+) unless he averages approx 25-27 disposals and 6.5+ Marks due to his poor CPR and tackles thus heavily dependent on his outside game and efficiency.

Whilst Dawson’s all round game should bode well for nudging an avg around 95/95+.
 
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Blue Dragons

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Hawthorn
#42
A Witherden:
53 Matches
10 100+
1 100+ when he has less than 27 disposals.
95 Tackles at 1.8 per game
214 contested possessions at 4 per game
328 Marks at 6.2 per game
1104 disposals at 20.8 per game

J Dawson:
25 Matches
6 100+
4 100+ when he has less than 27 disposals.
76 Tackles at 3 per game
143 contested possessions at 5.7 per game
134 marks at 5.4 per game
435 disposals at 17.4 per game
Hard to see Witherden managing a worthwhile avg (90-95+) unless he averages approx 25-27 disposals and 6.5+ Marks due to his poor CPR and tackles thus heavily dependent on his outside game and efficiency.

Whilst Dawson’s all round game should bode well for nudging an avg around 95/95+.
That's true he does have a more all round game but if you compare Dawsons numbers to Witherdens before the start of last season, Witherden was averaging 5 more points per game and posted 3 more 100+ games.
He still relies more on kicking and marking and not tackles and contested possessions but Jake Lloyd averaged 1.7 tackles and 4.8 CPs and he averaged 108.7. Not saying Witherden is Lloyd by any means, just that different players get their points differently.

I think I am trying to talk myself out of Dawson rather than into Witherden
 
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#43
I'm liking the discussion around Dawson, but I think it's almost in the wrong thread :sneaky:.

Based on last season's average, he's already the 11th highest averaging forward. Of the 10 above him, I really only see Heeney, Martin, Walters and Whitfield as likely to maintain their scoring or improve - the rest are either coming off spike seasons (Ziebell, Greene, perhaps Cameron as well) or appear to have found their range (Lambert and DeGoey) or are getting old (Ablett).

If he improves at all and plays 20+ games he could easily be a top 6 PIT averaging forward even if he only goes 93 or something like that. Add in the DPP flexibility paired with a likely hot rookie (Stephen Hill if fit) and it's starting to look pretty compelling isn't it? I have him at F2.
 

Darkie

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#44
I'm liking the discussion around Dawson, but I think it's almost in the wrong thread :sneaky:.

Based on last season's average, he's already the 11th highest averaging forward. Of the 10 above him, I really only see Heeney, Martin, Walters and Whitfield as likely to maintain their scoring or improve - the rest are either coming off spike seasons (Ziebell, Greene, perhaps Cameron as well) or appear to have found their range (Lambert and DeGoey) or are getting old (Ablett).

If he improves at all and plays 20+ games he could easily be a top 6 PIT averaging forward even if he only goes 93 or something like that. Add in the DPP flexibility paired with a likely hot rookie (Stephen Hill if fit) and it's starting to look pretty compelling isn't it? I have him at F2.
I like your thinking a lot, and this is hard to argue with.

I think the main argument for starting him down back is that there are a number of potential cheap keepers up forward (Smith, Steven, Buddy types).

No reason why you can’t start one of your intended forward keepers in the backline, before switching him forward, though. I’ve considered doing something similar with Smith in the mids.
 
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Essendon
#45
A Witherden:
53 Matches
10 100+
1 100+ when he has less than 27 disposals.
95 Tackles at 1.8 per game
214 contested possessions at 4 per game
328 Marks at 6.2 per game
1104 disposals at 20.8 per game

J Dawson:
25 Matches
6 100+
4 100+ when he has less than 27 disposals.
76 Tackles at 3 per game
143 contested possessions at 5.7 per game
134 marks at 5.4 per game
435 disposals at 17.4 per game


Hard to see Witherden managing a worthwhile avg (90-95+) unless he averages approx 25-27 disposals and 6.5+ Marks due to his poor CPR and tackles thus heavily dependent on his outside game and efficiency.

Whilst Dawson’s all round game should bode well for nudging an avg around 95/95+.
But surely no Hodge this year will be a positive for Witherden to ave 90 ghis year?
 
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#48
how many defenders over 500k can we start to have great season
Unless Doc comes out swinging, I’ll be very surprised if we see more than 1 or 2 defenders go at 105+. Could potentially be 0 if Lloyd’s back half of last year is anything to go by.

As a result there’s probably notably less points to be had from defence this season so I’ll be looking to start a fairly budget backline personally, but I don’t think there’s anything wrong with starting a couple 500+ If you don’t need the money anywhere else.

I think only Lloyd & Williams of the higher priced guys have the potential to really damage your season so maybe taking one of them to balance the odds is the way to go.
 
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Essendon
#49
View attachment 14191

Expecting a 17.7 point increase because Hodge is not playing seems fraught with danger...
But if you take out his two lowest and highest scores of each season that is his real average, he has been injured early in games. We should use the Olympic Gymnastics judging formulae to get a real performance average.
 
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#50
But if you take out his two lowest and highest scores of each season that is his real average, he has been injured early in games. We should use the Olympic Gymnastics judging formulae to get a real performance average.
The statistical name for the type of process you describe is winsorising (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsorizing ). It is a valid process iff (if and only if) you reason the removed obsevations are outliers. If they are not outliers, then winsorising of data is not legitimate statistically.
 
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#51
Seems 2020 looks be a year to go light in Defense. With growing numbers sharing points with our previous locks Lloyd and Laird types It's hard to be guaranteed premium points week in week out.
I still see both these as Top 6 but are we better grabbing them later ?
 
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#52
Concur with the consensus about Defenders this year... what a seriously bare cupboard. Not sure I can justify any of the top premiums...

J. Llloyd proved he was fallible in the second half of last year. Can't pay $600k with those doubts.
Houli is 32, coming off his first ever 100+ average in 13 seasons. Hard pass.
Hurn, ditto - except it took him 14 years to crack the ton.
Zac Williams is coming off a huge boost, that only eventuated when he played the back half in the mids, due to Ward, Kelly, Coniglio, Whitfield all missing games in the back half. Can't rely on that happening again.
Caleb Daniel is harder to fault, though I have big issues in paying up for a guy who's just beaten his career best average by >20 pts, is five foot nothing and misses games every year
Stewart/Rampe off good years, but feel they're priced at their peak?

Laird probably the first one you can consider, along with Siciliy, and we all know the question marks that come along with that pick...
 
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#53
with Carlton "expected" to be better this year will docherty be as good with less of the ball down their backline ?

or could them being good help him?
 
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#55
another good point but would be good from a s/c p.o.v if he was back to his best seeing there isn't that much in the backline
 
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#57
Concur with the consensus about Defenders this year... what a seriously bare cupboard. Not sure I can justify any of the top premiums...

J. Llloyd proved he was fallible in the second half of last year. Can't pay $600k with those doubts.
Houli is 32, coming off his first ever 100+ average in 13 seasons. Hard pass.
Hurn, ditto - except it took him 14 years to crack the ton.
Zac Williams is coming off a huge boost, that only eventuated when he played the back half in the mids, due to Ward, Kelly, Coniglio, Whitfield all missing games in the back half. Can't rely on that happening again.
Caleb Daniel is harder to fault, though I have big issues in paying up for a guy who's just beaten his career best average by >20 pts, is five foot nothing and misses games every year
Stewart/Rampe off good years, but feel they're priced at their peak?

Laird probably the first one you can consider, along with Siciliy, and we all know the question marks that come along with that pick...
Crisp. Started him last year, see how he goes in preseason, can get the ball.
 
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#58
Crisp. Started him last year, see how he goes in preseason, can get the ball.
I got him in too, he got it a bit, sure, then he butchered it. Got frustrated with him and ditched him, he did have some good games though. If he was more consistent with his efficiency, he'd be a good pick - could still be.
 
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#60
Crisp. Started him last year, see how he goes in preseason, can get the ball.
I had him all year last season and it was at times great, at times incredibly painful.

One match he was on about 3 pts at Qtr time and then moved to the mids and racked it up, ended up going 100+. But most of the time you just watch him get the ball (lots) and then peer perilously through your fingers at the tv, praying his kicks to nowhere land with a team mate.
 
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