Position Forwards Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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@Connoisseur
Hi mate , not sure if you do requests on "players stat analysis" but if you do and have one for Zac Bailey (Brisbane) be very interested in seeing it.
Cheers
Hi mate , not sure if you do requests on "players stat analysis" but if you do and have one for Zac Bailey (Brisbane) be very interested in seeing it.
Cheers
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Have stats on def 90+, mid 100+, ruck 95+ and fwd 90+ from 2018 but will happily do player requests.
Z Bailey:
Wins Avg: 53.5 from 2
Losses Avg: 50.3 from 10
Pre Bye Avg: 46.22 from 9
Post Bye Avg: 64.67 from 3
Disposals: 13.5
SC avg when disposals equals/exceed 14: 61.43 from 7
SC avg when disposals below 14: 36 from 5
Contested Possessions: 4.42
SC avg when contested possessions equals/exceed 5: 59.8 from 5
SC avg when contested possessions below 5: 44.43 from 7
Tackles: 2.33
SC avg when tackles equals/exceed 3: 48.83 from 6
SC avg when tackles below 3: 52.83 from 6
Time On Ground%: 79.33%
SC avg when time on ground equals/exceed 80%: 43.67 from 6
SC avg when time on ground below 80%: 58 from 6
Contested Possession Rate: 32.32%
Disposal Efficiency: 74.69%
Z Bailey:
Wins Avg: 53.5 from 2
Losses Avg: 50.3 from 10
Pre Bye Avg: 46.22 from 9
Post Bye Avg: 64.67 from 3
Disposals: 13.5
SC avg when disposals equals/exceed 14: 61.43 from 7
SC avg when disposals below 14: 36 from 5
Contested Possessions: 4.42
SC avg when contested possessions equals/exceed 5: 59.8 from 5
SC avg when contested possessions below 5: 44.43 from 7
Tackles: 2.33
SC avg when tackles equals/exceed 3: 48.83 from 6
SC avg when tackles below 3: 52.83 from 6
Time On Ground%: 79.33%
SC avg when time on ground equals/exceed 80%: 43.67 from 6
SC avg when time on ground below 80%: 58 from 6
Contested Possession Rate: 32.32%
Disposal Efficiency: 74.69%
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That's fine. Regarding the 2 forwards here some stats on them.
D Moore:
Across his career he has averaged 77.24 SC points when he records 10 or more disposals and 5 or more marks in a game and across the past 2 seasons he has recorded a 80.92 avg when both the aforementioned stats occurred.
59% TOG in 2018 and when his TOG equalled or exceeded 59% he averaged 69 from 4 (low of 34 and a high of 91) and averaged 80.67 from 3 when TOG equalled or exceeded 80%.
From prospectus: "Moore spent 86% game time as a forward in his first 3 seasons, but that changed last year, spending 64% of his time in defence. In his final 3 matches he played purely as a defender and the signs are there that he could be a valuable interceptor. In his 2 full games not affected by injury, he had 18 intercept possessions, 9 intercept marks and 20 spoils- all elite numbers".
J Daniher:
2018 Wins Avg: 75.5 from 2
2017 Wins Avg: 90 from 12 (4/12 below 80, 8/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
2018 Losses Avg: 49.4 from 5
2017 Losses Avg: 81.2 from 10 (6/10 below 80, 8/10 below 100)
SC avg between 2017-2018 when he kicks multiple goals (2+): 89.6 from 20
SC avg between 2017-2018 when he kicks less than 2 goals: 55.33 from 9
D Moore:
Across his career he has averaged 77.24 SC points when he records 10 or more disposals and 5 or more marks in a game and across the past 2 seasons he has recorded a 80.92 avg when both the aforementioned stats occurred.
59% TOG in 2018 and when his TOG equalled or exceeded 59% he averaged 69 from 4 (low of 34 and a high of 91) and averaged 80.67 from 3 when TOG equalled or exceeded 80%.
From prospectus: "Moore spent 86% game time as a forward in his first 3 seasons, but that changed last year, spending 64% of his time in defence. In his final 3 matches he played purely as a defender and the signs are there that he could be a valuable interceptor. In his 2 full games not affected by injury, he had 18 intercept possessions, 9 intercept marks and 20 spoils- all elite numbers".
J Daniher:
2018 Wins Avg: 75.5 from 2
2017 Wins Avg: 90 from 12 (4/12 below 80, 8/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
2018 Losses Avg: 49.4 from 5
2017 Losses Avg: 81.2 from 10 (6/10 below 80, 8/10 below 100)
SC avg between 2017-2018 when he kicks multiple goals (2+): 89.6 from 20
SC avg between 2017-2018 when he kicks less than 2 goals: 55.33 from 9
Depending on how many and where the rookies fall Round 1 I "might" have room for one of those players in my team , bias would probably lead me picking Moore , IF he has got his body and mindset right the potential could be anything.
Has all the physical attributes , now just needs to put it altogether for his and Collingwood's sake.
Has all the physical attributes , now just needs to put it altogether for his and Collingwood's sake.
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Hadn't considered D Moore til around a fortnight ago when I did a bit of researching but he is my D4 in my current iteration due to his DPP as it could allow my F3 (J Kennedy) or F4 (T Greene) to be traded for a defender if one of them suffers an injury,etc early in the season. If there are sufficient rookies in the Def and Fwd line then I won't bother selecting him.
I am currently thinking of running all of Burgess , Moore & Rozee just need to workout where best to position them to utilise their DPP.
Pre-season I was very keen on Whitfield , Andrews & Williams , with talk Andrews playing forward not sure of him now , very reluctant to pay $ 570,000.00 for another defender so Witherden is my next cab off the rank OR look at Roberton/Hanley/Moore combo at D3-D4.
So many question marks on forwards (think there is 20 available that averaged 90+ without taking into account Gresham , Worpel , JJK , Greene , Daniher etc etc.
Certainly see the appeal in JJK and Greene if they are fit , do they average more than all the F/M's though or are you viewing them as stepping stones ?
Rookies are obviously all conjecture at the moment so anyone's guess.
F: Setterfield , Cavarra , Parker , Corbett all seem to be the popular names.
D: Burgess , Hore , McKay , Wilkie not sure on Rozee and Collins at there starting price , certainly got spoiled last year with DoeFinMur
Pre-season I was very keen on Whitfield , Andrews & Williams , with talk Andrews playing forward not sure of him now , very reluctant to pay $ 570,000.00 for another defender so Witherden is my next cab off the rank OR look at Roberton/Hanley/Moore combo at D3-D4.
So many question marks on forwards (think there is 20 available that averaged 90+ without taking into account Gresham , Worpel , JJK , Greene , Daniher etc etc.
Certainly see the appeal in JJK and Greene if they are fit , do they average more than all the F/M's though or are you viewing them as stepping stones ?
Rookies are obviously all conjecture at the moment so anyone's guess.
F: Setterfield , Cavarra , Parker , Corbett all seem to be the popular names.
D: Burgess , Hore , McKay , Wilkie not sure on Rozee and Collins at there starting price , certainly got spoiled last year with DoeFinMur
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JJK, Greene and Moore will all be stepping stones and Worpel/Daniher/Roberton/Hanley are all in consideration as alternatives. If I decide to deter from this path then one of L Ryan, R Gray or D Mundy and a rookie will come in for JJK and Greene allowing Moore to be traded for D Roberton/J Daniher etc.
Sounds like a plan and you have it all sorted
I am sure one of Roberton/Hanley/Daniher/Bailey/Moore will end up in my final side.
I love Robbie Gray but just took him out for Mundy , with Dixon out for the first 4 weeks and no Wingard think they will need him closer to goals , even though he is the best midfielder.
speaking of stepping stones and mid-price the articles in NRL you sent offer up so many , that could be the "fun" way to go over there.
I am sure one of Roberton/Hanley/Daniher/Bailey/Moore will end up in my final side.
I love Robbie Gray but just took him out for Mundy , with Dixon out for the first 4 weeks and no Wingard think they will need him closer to goals , even though he is the best midfielder.
speaking of stepping stones and mid-price the articles in NRL you sent offer up so many , that could be the "fun" way to go over there.
Similar route to me at the moment. Currently looking at one of JJK and Greene, combined with Daniher and Moore. Unless a Worpel, Gresham, Billings type look really good in the preseason. TLynch I've heard won't play JLT so it'll be hard to justify picking him.
JJK, Daniher types possibly are frowned upon due to injury interrupted preseasons but as stepping stones they allow for a bit more indecision as opposed to locking in a proper forward premium (ie: a Gray, Mundy, Dunkley, McLean, Menegola type) and a rookie. If the mid pricers look shaky and there's a gun fwd rookie (ie: someone like Parker or Drew look startable), I'll probably need to just lock in a proper fwd premo. Likely Gray at this stage, but knee soreness doesn't sound good at his price. Question marks also on Gray's mid time.
JJK and Daniher I don't mind as it takes a fwd rookie off field and both offer a bit more flexibility to trade out at some point in the season (either as success stories or as failures).
JJK, Daniher types possibly are frowned upon due to injury interrupted preseasons but as stepping stones they allow for a bit more indecision as opposed to locking in a proper forward premium (ie: a Gray, Mundy, Dunkley, McLean, Menegola type) and a rookie. If the mid pricers look shaky and there's a gun fwd rookie (ie: someone like Parker or Drew look startable), I'll probably need to just lock in a proper fwd premo. Likely Gray at this stage, but knee soreness doesn't sound good at his price. Question marks also on Gray's mid time.
JJK and Daniher I don't mind as it takes a fwd rookie off field and both offer a bit more flexibility to trade out at some point in the season (either as success stories or as failures).
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Hear, hear.
Below is what I mentioned regarding JJK on Page 17
"Discounted due to an injury affected 2018 season which was his lowest avg since 2012 and only the 2nd time in the past 6 seasons he has dipped below a 90 avg. Averaged 10.18 disposals and 4 marks a game which is his 2nd lowest average in both categories since 2008 and the only other time he has dipped below 11 disposals and 5 marks a game was in 2012.
Averaged 94.51 from 61 of a possible 66 matches between 2015-2017 with 39/61 below 100 and 11/61 120+. Was a pre bye specialist in that period averaging 100.37 from 35 pre bye with 21/35 below and 8/35 120+ in comparison to an 86.62 post bye avg from 26 games with 18/26 below 100 and 3/26 120+. All 3 of those seasons he recorded an avg of 95+ pre bye and below 90 post bye. Also his scoring is very dependent on the team's performance as he averaged 104.45 from 42 wins (21/42 below 100, 11/42 120+) in comparison to 73.33 from 18 losses (17/18 below 100, 0/18 120+). All 3 of the seasons between 2015-2017 he recorded a 100+ avg in wins with a 105 avg in the last 2 seasons whereas all 3 seasons he recorded an average below 80 in losses. Also averaged 102.91 from 33 at Domain Stadium (17/33 below 100, 9/33 120+) which was a 18 point differential as he averaged 84.61 from 28 interstate matches (22/28 below 100, 2/28 120+).
4 of his first 7 matches are at Optus Stadium in 2019 (GWS, Freo, Port, GC) and 4 of his first 11 are against 2018 top 8 teams (GWS, Coll, Geel, Melb).
Kennedy didn't play RD1 in 2018 but in his 2 previous Round 1 matches he has scored 174 (RD1 2017) and 180 (RD1 2016)."
He has a tendency to start well and will likely be an avenue to a S Menegola, R Gray,etc before the byes as there should be less than 100,000 differential and best case scenario is that he could be held for longer or as an F7 for the season. Daniher and Greene will be very hard to split but I think I'm assured of at least taking 1 in as I'd kick myself if I didn't select neither due to their potential and discount.
Below is what I mentioned regarding JJK on Page 17
"Discounted due to an injury affected 2018 season which was his lowest avg since 2012 and only the 2nd time in the past 6 seasons he has dipped below a 90 avg. Averaged 10.18 disposals and 4 marks a game which is his 2nd lowest average in both categories since 2008 and the only other time he has dipped below 11 disposals and 5 marks a game was in 2012.
Averaged 94.51 from 61 of a possible 66 matches between 2015-2017 with 39/61 below 100 and 11/61 120+. Was a pre bye specialist in that period averaging 100.37 from 35 pre bye with 21/35 below and 8/35 120+ in comparison to an 86.62 post bye avg from 26 games with 18/26 below 100 and 3/26 120+. All 3 of those seasons he recorded an avg of 95+ pre bye and below 90 post bye. Also his scoring is very dependent on the team's performance as he averaged 104.45 from 42 wins (21/42 below 100, 11/42 120+) in comparison to 73.33 from 18 losses (17/18 below 100, 0/18 120+). All 3 of the seasons between 2015-2017 he recorded a 100+ avg in wins with a 105 avg in the last 2 seasons whereas all 3 seasons he recorded an average below 80 in losses. Also averaged 102.91 from 33 at Domain Stadium (17/33 below 100, 9/33 120+) which was a 18 point differential as he averaged 84.61 from 28 interstate matches (22/28 below 100, 2/28 120+).
4 of his first 7 matches are at Optus Stadium in 2019 (GWS, Freo, Port, GC) and 4 of his first 11 are against 2018 top 8 teams (GWS, Coll, Geel, Melb).
Kennedy didn't play RD1 in 2018 but in his 2 previous Round 1 matches he has scored 174 (RD1 2017) and 180 (RD1 2016)."
He has a tendency to start well and will likely be an avenue to a S Menegola, R Gray,etc before the byes as there should be less than 100,000 differential and best case scenario is that he could be held for longer or as an F7 for the season. Daniher and Greene will be very hard to split but I think I'm assured of at least taking 1 in as I'd kick myself if I didn't select neither due to their potential and discount.
Excellent summary - thanks for re-posting, I've missed some gems posted on the forum in the last few days due to work. Strongly considering JJK so good to have some statistical support as to why it isn't that crazy of an idea. I do like that he has the lions first up - not sure if the lions are as weak as they were in the last two years, but it's a game you'd still expect WCE to win!
Nice stats on Daniher! Those 2017 stats look very consistent which is good, not that big a difference between wins / losses. Although then again, if you compare with JJK who has a 105 / 70 W/L split, perhaps Daniher doesn't have that big of a ceiling on him.
The plus is that Daniher is much cheaper, so anything around an 80-85 avg would be a win from him.
Again, I'm glad to see I'm not the only person to still be considering Daniher despite the interrupted preseason.
The plus is that Daniher is much cheaper, so anything around an 80-85 avg would be a win from him.
Again, I'm glad to see I'm not the only person to still be considering Daniher despite the interrupted preseason.
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Only got as far as compiling stats for potential RD1 captains/projections but J Kennedy has a great record against the Lions.
Avg VS Bris since 2015: 118.5 from 4 (low of 88 and a high of 180, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Last 3 VS Bris: 121.67 from 3 (low of 88 and a high of 180, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
The 180 against them was in RD1 2016 but was at Domain Stadium.
Avg VS Bris since 2015: 118.5 from 4 (low of 88 and a high of 180, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Last 3 VS Bris: 121.67 from 3 (low of 88 and a high of 180, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
The 180 against them was in RD1 2016 but was at Domain Stadium.
