Discussion General Discussion

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778967732404588748

 

[Baglimit]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/horse-...s/news-story/8290e386712cc32cf8851482d984cb9c

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1780288034732118090

View: https://twitter.com/TheFigen_/status/1780288034732118090

 

[Matt]

I tried searching on here & the AFL website, but where can I find players heat maps on the AFL website?

 

[Shannon]

I tried searching on here & the AFL website, but where can I find players heat maps on the AFL website?

Not sure the AFL website has that feature, DFS Australia certainly does.

Here is the link to Sam Walsh's heat map from last week for example :-

https://dfsaustralia.com/heat-map/?...null&playerName=Sam Walsh&season=2024&round=5

 

[Connoisseur]

I tried searching on here & the AFL website, but where can I find players heat maps on the AFL website?

Not sure the AFL website has that feature, DFS Australia certainly does.

Here is the link to Sam Walsh's heat map from last week for example :-

https://dfsaustralia.com/heat-map/?map=https://s.afl.com.au/heatmaps/2024/match-124250504-1006094.png&playerId=null&playerName=Sam Walsh&season=2024&round=5

Heat maps and centre bounce attendances (for each match) seem to be limited to their (AFL) app.

 

[Matt]

Not sure the AFL website has that feature, DFS Australia certainly does.

Here is the link to Sam Walsh's heat map from last week for example :-

https://dfsaustralia.com/heat-map/?map=https://s.afl.com.au/heatmaps/2024/match-124250504-1006094.png&playerId=null&playerName=Sam Walsh&season=2024&round=5

Thanks Shannon, that's a great website with the amount of data they have!!

 

[Matt]

Heat maps and centre bounce attendances (for each match) seem to be limited to their (AFL) app.

Perfect thanks Connoisseur, it's certainly easy to find on the app

 

[Rowsus]

Many, many years ago, maybe 30 years now, I read an analysis by a Melbourne Uni Math Professor. He was postulating that in most AFL seasons you could greatly reduce the field of genuine Premiership contenders after Round 6 in any given season. I can't remember the exact criteria he used, so I will make up my own!

Not many teams come from outside the 8 in one season, to win the flag the next. Richmond finished 13th in 2016, and won the flag in 2017. Not many other examples springing to mind, but I'm sure there are others.
So let's start with the teams that made the finals in 2023. The information below is taken from season 2012 to 2023.



11 of the past 12 Premiers had lost no more than 2 games by Round 6. The other lost 3.
10 of the past 12 Premiers had a percentage over 110% at Round 6.
When not separating teams using %, but just wins, 10 of the last 12 Premiers were =6th or higher after Round 6.
When using that same ladder not separated by %, 11 of the last 12 Premiers had recorded at least one win against a top 8 team by Round 6.
9 of the last 12 Premiers had a 50% or better record against those same top 8 teams by the end of Round 6.

Using those 5 criteria, this years Premier should be one of: Port, Melbourne, Carlton or Sydney.

It will be interesting how it stacks up this season.

 

[Bonaparte]

Dees missed finals in 2020 but won it in 2021.

 

[Darkie]

Many, many years ago, maybe 30 years now, I read an analysis by a Melbourne Uni Math Professor. He was postulating that in most AFL seasons you could greatly reduce the field of genuine Premiership contenders after Round 6 in any given season. I can't remember the exact criteria he used, so I will make up my own!

Not many teams come from outside the 8 in one season, to win the flag the next. Richmond finished 13th in 2016, and won the flag in 2017. Not many other examples springing to mind, but I'm sure there are others.
So let's start with the teams that made the finals in 2023. The information below is taken from season 2012 to 2023.

View attachment 71912

11 of the past 12 Premiers had lost no more than 2 games by Round 6. The other lost 3.
10 of the past 12 Premiers had a percentage over 110% at Round 6.
When not separating teams using %, but just wins, 10 of the last 12 Premiers were =6th or higher after Round 6.
When using that same ladder not separated by %, 11 of the last 12 Premiers had recorded at least one win against a top 8 team by Round 6.
9 of the last 12 Premiers had a 50% or better record against those same top 8 teams by the end of Round 6.

Using those 5 criteria, this years Premier should be one of: Port, Melbourne, Carlton or Sydney.

It will be interesting how it stacks up this season.

Very interesting!

Is the second last column the numerator for the last column?

 

[Rowsus]

Very interesting!

Is the second last column the numerator for the last column?

Yeah. They're a bit repetitive those 2. Could probably drop the 2nd last column.

 

[Darkie]

Yeah. They're a bit repetitive those 2. Could probably drop the 2nd last column.

All good, I think they’re both meaningful, especially with small samples.

Collingwood’s implied game count did look a bit unusual though - maybe a minor linking issue?

 

[Rowsus]

All good, I think they’re both meaningful, especially with small samples.

Collingwood’s implied game count did look a bit unusual though - maybe a minor linking issue?

Thanks. Fixed now.

 

[Couch Coach]

Question: Whats the idea premium structure for the mid-season byes?



I'm currently targeting a 6/4/6/6 premium structure.
Should I target any more than the current 4 No. Round 13 premiums?

 

[freowho]

Question: Whats the idea premium structure for the mid-season byes?

View attachment 72051

I'm currently targeting a 6/4/6/6 premium structure.
Should I target any more than the current 4 No. Round 13 premiums?

40 trades will allow more slingshots so it doesn't hurt to be rnd 14 and 15 heavy. I'm only looking at 1 or 2 from rnd 12 and 13 heading into the byes and then moving into those players during the byes.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1782905817718763561

 

[Philzsay]

Many, many years ago, maybe 30 years now, I read an analysis by a Melbourne Uni Math Professor. He was postulating that in most AFL seasons you could greatly reduce the field of genuine Premiership contenders after Round 6 in any given season. I can't remember the exact criteria he used, so I will make up my own!

Not many teams come from outside the 8 in one season, to win the flag the next. Richmond finished 13th in 2016, and won the flag in 2017. Not many other examples springing to mind, but I'm sure there are others.
So let's start with the teams that made the finals in 2023. The information below is taken from season 2012 to 2023.

View attachment 71957

11 of the past 12 Premiers had lost no more than 2 games by Round 6. The other lost 3.
10 of the past 12 Premiers had a percentage over 110% at Round 6.
When not separating teams using %, but just wins, 10 of the last 12 Premiers were =6th or higher after Round 6.
When using that same ladder not separated by %, 11 of the last 12 Premiers had recorded at least one win against a top 8 team by Round 6.
9 of the last 12 Premiers had a 50% or better record against those same top 8 teams by the end of Round 6.

Using those 5 criteria, this years Premier should be one of: Port, Melbourne, Carlton or Sydney.

It will be interesting how it stacks up this season.

So, are you saying the Bombers won't win the Flag this year????

Booooo!!!

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784557087168880684

 

[NT.Thunder]

Is it just me or did the SC SGUI change overnight?