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I'm looking at what went wrong for me this season, and for other teams/content producers. I'm trying to construct an "optimal" realistic starting team. Anyone have any issues with this team from round 1? Any replacements you'd make?
DEF: Ryan, Sheez, Yeo, McGovern, Massimo, Answerth, Burgoyne, Howes
MID: Merrett, Butters, Serong, Rowell, Martin, Kerch, Sanders, Roberts, Sharp, Wehr, Thomas
RCK: Gawn, Xerri, Livingstone.
FWD: Heeney, Flanders, Reid, Wilson, Dempsey, McKay, Buku, Cadman
DEF: Ryan, Sheez, Yeo, McGovern, Massimo, Answerth, Burgoyne, Howes
MID: Merrett, Butters, Serong, Rowell, Martin, Kerch, Sanders, Roberts, Sharp, Wehr, Thomas
RCK: Gawn, Xerri, Livingstone.
FWD: Heeney, Flanders, Reid, Wilson, Dempsey, McKay, Buku, Cadman
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It's about $200k unders. I had Steele instead of Merrett but realised I could go up to the Dons skipper with cash to spare. I'll calc it again this afternoon just to put an exact figure on it as I just ballparked it. I have all the starting prices written down:
Ryan: 611
Sheez: 556
Yeo: 447
Answerth: 176
McGovern: 470
Massimo: 225
Howes: 124
Burgoyne: 180
Serong: 622
Merrett: 650
Rowell: 572
Butters: 636
Kerch: 203
Roberts:157
Wehr: 124
Martin: 493
Sharp: 124
Thomas: 117
Sanders: 203
Xerri: 407
Gawn: 584
Livingstone: 103
Heeney: 484
Flanders: 494
Reid: 203
Wilson: 131
Dempsey: 148
Buku: 124
McKay: 398
Cadman: 128
Ryan: 611
Sheez: 556
Yeo: 447
Answerth: 176
McGovern: 470
Massimo: 225
Howes: 124
Burgoyne: 180
Serong: 622
Merrett: 650
Rowell: 572
Butters: 636
Kerch: 203
Roberts:157
Wehr: 124
Martin: 493
Sharp: 124
Thomas: 117
Sanders: 203
Xerri: 407
Gawn: 584
Livingstone: 103
Heeney: 484
Flanders: 494
Reid: 203
Wilson: 131
Dempsey: 148
Buku: 124
McKay: 398
Cadman: 128
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Was thinking the other week those that started the majority of :-
McGovern , Yeo
Crouch , Martin , Steele
Grundy , Xerri
Heeney , Flanders
Would be extremely well placed
Even Young (12th on aggregate for Defenders has worked
Throw in Fyfe & Jordon , add a more reliable VC & C , then all the rookies
Answerth was F only to start
Burgoyne didn't play Round 1
McGovern , Yeo
Crouch , Martin , Steele
Grundy , Xerri
Heeney , Flanders
Would be extremely well placed
Even Young (12th on aggregate for Defenders has worked
Throw in Fyfe & Jordon , add a more reliable VC & C , then all the rookies
Answerth was F only to start
Burgoyne didn't play Round 1
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Maybe Answerth instead of McKay? (who is the 4th forward on points having said that: 813 points)
Jordon Clark would be ahead of Young, more points at a cheaper price. Maybe McKay down to Answerth and Mass up to Clark. Mass has 513 points, Answerth 447 points, but the Clark + Answerth combo has much more cash gen.
Fyfe and Jordon were fails as picks. I know the "value" people will argue otherwise, and they will argue it until they are blue in the face. Fyfe is the 22nd rated forward with 649 points, and Jordon 27th with 611 points. They took up spots that could have gone to cash generators (Fyfe made about $140k at his peak so he was the best of them, but these types you never know when to release them and tears happen inevitably when they are subbed or throw in a poor score) and also the extra $ spent on them limited people in terms of the premos they could have got. So for example, instead of Ollie Wines people could have got a Rowell or a Serong etc.
If you look at the list of these potential mid pricers whose names were bandied about in the pre-season and in starting teams, the list of failures among them is a very high percentage. This could be just particular to this season, however, but with round zero now a mainstay I think a skew towards guns n rookies is probably better in future seasons.
The real wins in the value section came from the > $450k section. The Martins, Yeos etc. If you got these right and avoided the Wines types you are likely having a great season (no knock on Wines, a "solid" pick like Fyfe, but there's an opportunity cost for putting these players in your team as they soak up $ and a valuable slot, and that's where the fail part comes in for them).
Having said that, as per usual, if you nailed the right premos at the start you'd be crushing it. Nailing the right premos and the right rookies is where its at for season 2024.
Jordon Clark would be ahead of Young, more points at a cheaper price. Maybe McKay down to Answerth and Mass up to Clark. Mass has 513 points, Answerth 447 points, but the Clark + Answerth combo has much more cash gen.
Fyfe and Jordon were fails as picks. I know the "value" people will argue otherwise, and they will argue it until they are blue in the face. Fyfe is the 22nd rated forward with 649 points, and Jordon 27th with 611 points. They took up spots that could have gone to cash generators (Fyfe made about $140k at his peak so he was the best of them, but these types you never know when to release them and tears happen inevitably when they are subbed or throw in a poor score) and also the extra $ spent on them limited people in terms of the premos they could have got. So for example, instead of Ollie Wines people could have got a Rowell or a Serong etc.
If you look at the list of these potential mid pricers whose names were bandied about in the pre-season and in starting teams, the list of failures among them is a very high percentage. This could be just particular to this season, however, but with round zero now a mainstay I think a skew towards guns n rookies is probably better in future seasons.
The real wins in the value section came from the > $450k section. The Martins, Yeos etc. If you got these right and avoided the Wines types you are likely having a great season (no knock on Wines, a "solid" pick like Fyfe, but there's an opportunity cost for putting these players in your team as they soak up $ and a valuable slot, and that's where the fail part comes in for them).
Having said that, as per usual, if you nailed the right premos at the start you'd be crushing it. Nailing the right premos and the right rookies is where its at for season 2024.
Certainly a interesting exercise.
Can't recall anyone mentioning Clark at all preseason hence why I mentioned Young.
Without Answerth & Burgoyne (didn't play Round 1) in defence it becomes difficult given how popular Coffield , Gibcus & Reid were as starting picks to find that perfect starting structure
Ryan over Daicos , Yeo , McGovern , D'Ambrosio , Williams (although if Fyfe & Jordon are considered failed picks then I guess he is as well) + all the cheap rookies the majority of which got injured.
Hindsight would probably suggest a Houston or Sheezel in there and pushing Williams to D6 possibly (who knows)
Mids certainly look 2-3 premiums , Steele + that Crouch/Martin price range + 6 rookies was the way to go.
Personally looking back at the rucks starting Xerri proved to be a massive advantage.
From memory we had a stack of Round 1 F eligible rookies to fit in alongside Flanders , Heeney , Jackson (with Darcy missing)
Interesting looking at @jel's tables each week seeing the players with the biggest price rises to date.
Think I counted 14 rookie priced players that have played 8 games that have made $ 100k + so far.
Answerth , Reid & M Rioli all with 7 games played Round 1 as well
Fyfe is extremely interesting , was averaging 90 before the starting sub game on the weekend.
Granted he is currently 22nd on aggregate , still only 75 points behind Hogan who is currently 10th , true though those that started him need to know the right time to move him on.
Can't recall anyone mentioning Clark at all preseason hence why I mentioned Young.
Without Answerth & Burgoyne (didn't play Round 1) in defence it becomes difficult given how popular Coffield , Gibcus & Reid were as starting picks to find that perfect starting structure
Ryan over Daicos , Yeo , McGovern , D'Ambrosio , Williams (although if Fyfe & Jordon are considered failed picks then I guess he is as well) + all the cheap rookies the majority of which got injured.
Hindsight would probably suggest a Houston or Sheezel in there and pushing Williams to D6 possibly (who knows)
Mids certainly look 2-3 premiums , Steele + that Crouch/Martin price range + 6 rookies was the way to go.
Personally looking back at the rucks starting Xerri proved to be a massive advantage.
From memory we had a stack of Round 1 F eligible rookies to fit in alongside Flanders , Heeney , Jackson (with Darcy missing)
Interesting looking at @jel's tables each week seeing the players with the biggest price rises to date.
Think I counted 14 rookie priced players that have played 8 games that have made $ 100k + so far.
Answerth , Reid & M Rioli all with 7 games played Round 1 as well
Fyfe is extremely interesting , was averaging 90 before the starting sub game on the weekend.
Granted he is currently 22nd on aggregate , still only 75 points behind Hogan who is currently 10th , true though those that started him need to know the right time to move him on.
Rookies making $ 100k + that played Round 1
Uwland (6 games so far) , Howes
Roberts , Sharp , Wehr , Sanders (6) , McKercher
.
Reid (7) , Wilson , Cadman , Answerth (7) , Dempsey , Thomas , Lohmann , Khamis , Berry , Windsor , M Rioli (7) , Campbell
2 in defence (bench) + McGovern , Yeo + ? ? ? ?
5 in mids + a DPP + 2-3 premiums , Steele , N Martin
? + Xerri /Livingstone
Flanders , Heeney , Jackson + 5 rookie
Probably need more than 14 starting rookies though realistically to fit into the salary cap
Get that defensive structure and R1 right from the start and winner winner chicken dinner
Uwland (6 games so far) , Howes
Roberts , Sharp , Wehr , Sanders (6) , McKercher
.
Reid (7) , Wilson , Cadman , Answerth (7) , Dempsey , Thomas , Lohmann , Khamis , Berry , Windsor , M Rioli (7) , Campbell
2 in defence (bench) + McGovern , Yeo + ? ? ? ?
5 in mids + a DPP + 2-3 premiums , Steele , N Martin
? + Xerri /Livingstone
Flanders , Heeney , Jackson + 5 rookie
Probably need more than 14 starting rookies though realistically to fit into the salary cap
Get that defensive structure and R1 right from the start and winner winner chicken dinner
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With Fyfe we all knew that he was going to get vested. Like you can't argue "he would have averaged 90 if only he didn't get the vest" because it was always going to happen. 80 is a great average considering he's played every game and also has the injury cloud over him. Owners should be really happy with how it turned out as this is an upper tier outcome even if, IMO, starting him wasn't an optimal play.
I avoided him and Yeo because of the injury/vest thing. Yeo I was never going to start because of his extensive injury history. Having said that I didn't really understand why some content producers were really into Yeo as a starter but McGovern was like completely a non-pick. Up until Yeo got to play against the Richmond VFL midfield McGovern was a better pick, similar downside issues to Yeo but probably a better role with a bit lower injury risk.
The Yeo thing probably tells me I need to be a little more liberal with my selection criteria next year. Yeo has turned out to be a fantastic selection, as has McGovern. Having said that if either player has an injury 3 weeks into the year those picks would not have been good, but in a field of tens of thousands of entrants and one first prize sometimes you have to risk it for the biscuit.
I avoided him and Yeo because of the injury/vest thing. Yeo I was never going to start because of his extensive injury history. Having said that I didn't really understand why some content producers were really into Yeo as a starter but McGovern was like completely a non-pick. Up until Yeo got to play against the Richmond VFL midfield McGovern was a better pick, similar downside issues to Yeo but probably a better role with a bit lower injury risk.
The Yeo thing probably tells me I need to be a little more liberal with my selection criteria next year. Yeo has turned out to be a fantastic selection, as has McGovern. Having said that if either player has an injury 3 weeks into the year those picks would not have been good, but in a field of tens of thousands of entrants and one first prize sometimes you have to risk it for the biscuit.
I think it's interesting to see where the best picks come from and learn from that. But we don't have hindsight. Players like Wines, Crouch, Holmes, Fyfe, Bonner etc might not be the best picks in hindsight but they outscore their price and give us a chance to view the landscape. They are also easy to pivot from, up or down. Rather than trying to nail 12 "keepers" it's much easier to nail 6 or 7 reducing the loss from an underperforming high priced player. 40 trades and the bye rounds make these value picks a great strategy.
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Those picks were "successes" if you look at it from a value lense: however there were a slew of other midprice selections that weren't: Short, Amon, Zac Williams, Bramble, Billings, Harmes, Dow, Lyons, Budarick and more. Collectively with the Crouch types its really hard to tell which one of these were going to pop and which ones were going to flop. If you compare it to the rookies though many more rookies were successes, even middling ones like Seth Campbell who don't have as high a bar to reach in their scoring due to their rock-bottom price. As I said, you start a number of these mid pricers you will likely miss out on a great rookie or can't pay up for a Serong type.
A value based approach can't tell you before hand which ones are going to be winners. Hence we had online entities claiming Stewart was "value" at ~ $630k in the preseason, or that Naicos was underpriced at $650k. End of the day we just don't know. There's also a bit of a tendency from people espousing this approach as soon as a player looks a good pick he becomes "value", so for example as soon as the rookie Harley Reid turned the corner he got taken into the value fold as "one of ours". Further, there's a lack of consistency with the approach as many who follow it also started the highest priced mid and defender in Bont and Naicos.
A value based approach can't tell you before hand which ones are going to be winners. Hence we had online entities claiming Stewart was "value" at ~ $630k in the preseason, or that Naicos was underpriced at $650k. End of the day we just don't know. There's also a bit of a tendency from people espousing this approach as soon as a player looks a good pick he becomes "value", so for example as soon as the rookie Harley Reid turned the corner he got taken into the value fold as "one of ours". Further, there's a lack of consistency with the approach as many who follow it also started the highest priced mid and defender in Bont and Naicos.
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