Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

Joined
1 Feb 2015
Messages
177
Likes
55
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hey guys I think I already know the answer to this one but need reassurance.

Option 1: Walsh + Moore
Option 2: Low cost rookie on field + Greene
 

Connoisseur

Leadership Group
Joined
3 Jul 2017
Messages
38,963
Likes
126,629
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Coniglio, Scrimshaw, Bewley
Vs
Oliver, Duursma, Gibbons

M2, D6, M11 for spots.


I guess mainly:

Coniglio V Neale V Oliver
Very hard to split Oliver and Neale but I'd have both in-front of Coniglio.

C Oliver:

Wins: 115.19 from 26 (6/26 below 100, 9/26 120+)
2017: 114.08 from 12
2018: 116.14 from 14
Losses: 110 from 18 (5/18 below 100, 6/18 120+)
2017: 108.3 from 10
2018: 112.13 from 8

2018:
Disposals: 29.77
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 124.67 from 12 (low of 98 and a high of 154, 1/12 below 100, 8/12 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 30: 102.7 from 10 (low of 59 and a high of 143, 5/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
Contested Possessions: 16.41
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 17: 127.67 from 9 (low of 101 and a high of 154, 7/9 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 17: 105.69 from 13 (low of 59 and a high of 147, 6/13 below 100, 5/13 120+)
Tackles: 6.86
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 7: 127.6 from 10 (low of 89 and a high of 154, 2/10 below 100, 8/10 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 7: 103.92 from 12 (low of 59 and a high of 136, 4/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)
Time on Ground%: 82.91%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 83%: 118.31 from 13 (low of 89 and a high of 154, 2/13 below 100, 7/13 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 83%: 109.44 from 9 (low of 59 and a high of 146, 4/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)

L Neale:
Pre Bye: 111.8 from 50 (14/50 below 100, 20/50 120+)
2015: 111.18 from 11
2016: 113.29 from 14
2017: 114.58 from 12
2018: 108.15 from 13

Post Bye: 106.3 from 37 (13/37 below 100, 8/37 120+)
2015: 97.45 from 11
2016: 111.5 from 8
2017: 101.56 from 9
2018: 117.22 from 9

Disposals: 30.32
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 31: 124.18 from 11 (low of 99 and a high of 159, 1/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 31: 99.55 from 11 (low of 74 and a high of 132, 5/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
Contested Possessions: 15.05
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 16: 123.1 from 10 (low of 99 and a high of 151, 1/11 below 100, 6/11 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 16: 102.5 from 12 (low of 74 and a high of 159, 5/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Tackles: 4.23
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 5: 113.63 from 8 (low of 74 and a high of 151, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 5: 110.86 from 14 (low of 77 and a high of 159, 4/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)
Time on Ground%: 80.18%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 81%: 114.75 from 12 (low of 74 and a high of 159, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 81%: 108.4 from 10 (low of 77 and a high of 134, 3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

Possibly be leaning towards C Oliver due to the larger upside but I think both should be safe 110+ selections.
 
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
2,790
Likes
2,985
AFL Club
Adelaide
Option 2 more keepers. But 85+90+100=275 and 60+115+95=270. Classic conundrum that is pretty similar to all including my own. I think the statistically sound and safe option is B. But so tempting to go 1 for the extra starting nonrookie (but there is no real benefit of an extra starting non rookie if the other option has a similar output which in this case is likely). Your saving yourself a trade though. Hmm, ironically I'll now ask my own equivalent 3 midpricers Vs 2 premos and a rookie question hoping for the godsend answer haha
I think you are underselling option 1 by about 10ppg across the board although your point is still valid.

One less starting rookie can mean one less chance to avoid the dreaded on field rookie 40
 
Joined
23 May 2013
Messages
11,437
Likes
20,872
AFL Club
Sydney
Scrimshaw and Hatley vs. Collins and Bewley/A.N.Other similar priced rookie.

D5 and M8.
 

Ben's Beasts

Leadership Group
Joined
6 Jan 2013
Messages
19,074
Likes
80,340
AFL Club
Melbourne
Macrae & Brayshaw
vs
Fyfe & Neale

thinking option 2 is the obvious?
Fyfe & Neale for mine.

I'm quite confident that Fyfe and Neale will average 110+ and while I'm also confident that Macrae will, I'm less confident that Brayshaw will.

Plus, I feel Macrae is overpriced so it's easily Fyfe and Neale for me.
 
Top