Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Originally Posted by Grant
I had a dream overnight that Joel Selwood scored 55 and 52 in the first two matches of the season. I was whinging to somebody about picking him and checked his score for the third match of the season (surely I should have traded him out) and he was the 3rd ranked player in the 3rd quarter.

a) This is disturbing and a clear indication I think about Supercoach too much.
b) I don't believe Selwood scoring so poorly twice in a row is possible, although I have had other sporting related dreams become true. I once had a dream that I was in the mounting yard discussing my surprise at a long shot winning the Emirates Stakes, although no horses name was mentioned. It was in 2007 and Tears I Cry won at $61 (I backed another long shot in reality so it was quite irritating).

Response by Ricky Bobby:
Sometimes your subconscious brain can assemble various bits of information from different sources and present it in a logical format as a dream. It can also manifest as a hunch or educated guess. These can sometimes be quite accurate and so I think it is always worthwhile to think about whether there is any sound reasoning or facts behind the dream or hunch.

For this reason I thought I would have a quick look at SC Gold to see if it was projecting low scores for Selwood in the first few rounds. As it turns out, the projections look quite good so I guess this wasn't the source. It did get me to thinking however about the accuracy of the SC Gold weekly projections and whether they are any good or not. I seem to remember Rowsus a while ago making some comment about them not being very good but I can't remember exactly what he said. I would be interested to know whether anyone uses the SC Gold weekly projections and whether they have found them to be reliable or not. If you don't use SC Gold, then what do you use?

I may also copy this post to the Questions for Rowsus thread as I'm sure he will have some thoughts on this matter.
The SC Gold predictions seem to be better now, than a few years ago. They definitely have changed their system. They had a few good "wins", in that they spotted Beams' breakout season, having him scoring at around 120+ from the start of the season. Not many did that. There really is no reliable prediction system as such. RAMP and SC Gold when compared head to head on a week by week basis actually are pretty evenly matched, as to which is more accurate.
 

Rowsus

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How does the Official AFL Ratings consider Shane Edwards an elite mid-fwd and Dustin Martin only above average? I looked at their stats but can't figure out how it was possible.

Martin is definitely elite, while I consider Edwards only average.
Think I read somewhere that Martin had the most clanger kicks in 2014. Don't think either should be rated elite
Rowsus,

I was wondering if you (or anyone for that matter) had collated some stats around total average team Supercoach points across the 2014 season (i.e.: Hawthorn averaged 1,800 per game, St Kilda averaged 1,500 per game, etc.).

I would like to be able to use this data to analyse how easy / hard a team's draw is this year against what their opponents scored in Supercoach points (and not necessarily on ladder position).
TBO,
someone did post it last year I think, and I think it was Drew. I don't have those figures, it would take about 80-90 minutes to put them together, and right now I'm not sure I have the time. Sorry.
 
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rowsus,

i was wondering if you (or anyone for that matter) had collated some stats around total average team supercoach points across the 2014 season (i.e.: Hawthorn averaged 1,800 per game, st kilda averaged 1,500 per game, etc.).

I would like to be able to use this data to analyse how easy / hard a team's draw is this year against what their opponents scored in supercoach points (and not necessarily on ladder position).
ade 1670.454545
bri 1547.636364
car 1630.181818
col 1607.727273
ess 1696.5
fre 1704.818182
gcs 1598.681818
gee 1718.409091
gws 1611.545455
haw 1740.5
mel 1580.545455
nm 1681.272727
por 1719.909091
ric 1688.909091
stk 1527
syd 1726.863636
wb 1603.727273
wce 1644.954545
 
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Is it just me or do those values correlate almost perfectly with ladder position? If that's the case then it doesn't tell us much we didn't already know! Can anyone see any exceptions? Wce and essendon seem relatively high if anything?
 
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Is it just me or do those values correlate almost perfectly with ladder position? If that's the case then it doesn't tell us much we didn't already know! Can anyone see any exceptions? Wce and essendon seem relatively high if anything?
I'm kinda surprised by how high GWS is. They haven't really got a standout confirmed gun sc player (maybe Mummy or Ward).
Equally surprised by how low Gold Coast is. Gaz, Omeara, Prestia, Swallow were all pretty good scorers.

Maybe looking at individual players isn't a good representation
 
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Sorry for double post but wasn't sure if the table would work! Nothing really to take from it, aside from GWS who have been batting above their average in regards to SC-scoring. I wonder if this trend will continue or if it was perhaps a one-year wonder? Most teams however are within a place or two of their correlating ladder position, which isn't overly surprising.

Is it a case perhaps of the GWS kids wanting to keep possession to try to control the outcome of the game better, resulting in fatter scores for their players?
 
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tom mitchell????

apologies if you have already done him but if you havnt i would be very interested to see a projection for him

was a lock for me but his dt to sc ratio is offputing for me anyway and have come across a p.o.d who is more sc orientated which is what i prefer
 
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Can I grab your thoughts/insights on two fwd mid pricers
Claye Beams 286k and Sharrod Wellingham 375k


- Clay Beams DOMINATED last week's intra-club match, winning best afield honours in a new role off half back. Pearce Hanley's three-month layoff due to a hip injury will see Beams play a rebounding role in 2015.

- Sharrod Wellingham is fit, firing and set to show what he's capable of in 2015, according to West Coast midfield coach Brady Rawlings. Wellingham is in the final year of a lucrative three-year contract. His first two seasons at West Coast have been little short of disastrous. In 2013, he managed just 10 games due to severe ankle injuries, one of which was self-inflicted in a bizarre accident on a trampoline during the pre-season. In his second season at West Coast, under a different coach, Wellingham was dropped on three separate occasions due to poor form. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in late July while playing in the WAFL. Wellingham worked hard on his conditioning prior to Christmas, and Rawlings told AFL.com.au that the 26-year-old is ready to be a key component in the Eagles midfield in 2015. "This pre-season we've been able to train him a bit more as a midfielder since the Christmas break and he's coming along well," Rawlings said. "We all know his talent. He's quite fit at the moment. He's strong, he's clean inside the contest and uses the ball really well. "In possession, we know what he's capable of. It's just finding that balance with the other side of his game as well. "He's got a good attitude, and we're all looking forward to him playing games and showing us what he can do."
 
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Hi Rowsus.

Interested on your thoughts about Curtly Hampton as mid priced defender (you can pick yourself up off the floor now) . Was ave 90 by rd 6 last year including 2 tons but then it went pear shaped and he got injured etc etc. This will be his 4th season but did not really find his niche until switched into defence mid 2013 season. Price is ugly for the risk but I think he has upside.
 

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Hey Row,

If you were to pick a $250-$270k player, what would he need to average or how much cash would he need to generate to make to justify it as a good selection over a rookie who is $100-$150k cheaper?

Thanks
 

Rowsus

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tom mitchell????

apologies if you have already done him but if you havnt i would be very interested to see a projection for him

was a lock for me but his dt to sc ratio is offputing for me anyway and have come across a p.o.d who is more sc orientated which is what i prefer
Unless he consistently throws up good numbers in the NAB, I won't even consider him. High numbers in the NEAFL are nothing to get excited about. I'm not too concerned about his SC to DT, but more about his K to H ratio. He's a Watch, but probably not for me.
There's not enough data to a table on him properly. Unless he shows he's stepped up in the pecking order, he's just too big of a risk.
 

Rowsus

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Can I grab your thoughts/insights on two fwd mid pricers
Claye Beams 286k and Sharrod Wellingham 375k


- Clay Beams DOMINATED last week's intra-club match, winning best afield honours in a new role off half back. Pearce Hanley's three-month layoff due to a hip injury will see Beams play a rebounding role in 2015.

- Sharrod Wellingham is fit, firing and set to show what he's capable of in 2015, according to West Coast midfield coach Brady Rawlings. Wellingham is in the final year of a lucrative three-year contract. His first two seasons at West Coast have been little short of disastrous. In 2013, he managed just 10 games due to severe ankle injuries, one of which was self-inflicted in a bizarre accident on a trampoline during the pre-season. In his second season at West Coast, under a different coach, Wellingham was dropped on three separate occasions due to poor form. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in late July while playing in the WAFL. Wellingham worked hard on his conditioning prior to Christmas, and Rawlings told AFL.com.au that the 26-year-old is ready to be a key component in the Eagles midfield in 2015. "This pre-season we've been able to train him a bit more as a midfielder since the Christmas break and he's coming along well," Rawlings said. "We all know his talent. He's quite fit at the moment. He's strong, he's clean inside the contest and uses the ball really well. "In possession, we know what he's capable of. It's just finding that balance with the other side of his game as well. "He's got a good attitude, and we're all looking forward to him playing games and showing us what he can do."
C Beams could be interesting with Hanley out, if you are prepared to risk injury again. We need to see something really positive in the NAB though.
Wellingham I just can't have. Won't reach Keeper status, and won't rise enough in price.
 

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Hi Rowsus.

Interested on your thoughts about Curtly Hampton as mid priced defender (you can pick yourself up off the floor now) . Was ave 90 by rd 6 last year including 2 tons but then it went pear shaped and he got injured etc etc. This will be his 4th season but did not really find his niche until switched into defence mid 2013 season. Price is ugly for the risk but I think he has upside.

Hi Manikato1,
no need to pick myself up off the floor. I had a real good think about him a few days ago, but decided that if you are going to take a risk in that Price range, there are probably better options. Having said that, I can understand why some might take the risk on him.
 

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Hey Row,

If you were to pick a $250-$270k player, what would he need to average or how much cash would he need to generate to make to justify it as a good selection over a rookie who is $100-$150k cheaper?

Thanks
Hey Mike,
the first thing to consider with this is, you shouldn't just be comparing Mr $270k with Mr $150k.
Who was the last "value pick" you made, Premium or Midpriced, when you picked the $270k player? Can you convert him into a safer pick with the $150k player? These things also need to be factored in.
Let's ignore that for now though.
A cheap Rookie goes in with the hope of making just over $200k, but more realistically something around $175k is the average. To do that, they need to average around 65, or hit a decent (80 to 90) score 2 out of 3 weeks, then average around 60-ish.
The $270k player can depend on what line he is picked on, as to what you need to make him a good pick. But let's generalise again. You'd probably be happy to trade him in at just over $400k. To achieve this, he needs to average low to mid 80's, or hit 100 type scores in 2 out of 3 weeks, and average 80 in the others.
 
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Rowsus - Andrew Swallow to get the most points for the Roos this season at $4.00 - is it as easy money as I think it is?
 

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Hey Mike,
the first thing to consider with this is, you shouldn't just be comparing Mr $270k with Mr $150k.
Who was the last "value pick" you made, Premium or Midpriced, when you picked the $270k player? Can you convert him into a safer pick with the $150k player? These things also need to be factored in.
Let's ignore that for now though.
A cheap Rookie goes in with the hope of making just over $200k, but more realistically something around $175k is the average. To do that, they need to average around 65, or hit a decent (80 to 90) score 2 out of 3 weeks, then average around 60-ish.
The $270k player can depend on what line he is picked on, as to what you need to make him a good pick. But let's generalise again. You'd probably be happy to trade him in at just over $400k. To achieve this, he needs to average low to mid 80's, or hit 100 type scores in 2 out of 3 weeks, and average 80 in the others.
Thanks Row,

As it stands now, the extra $150k would have most likely been used to upgrade Waters to a Docherty type as I am currently happy with the other players. Although as you said, I could probably upgrade to a safer selection somewhere else but I am happy to take a risk.

The points seem achievable..just have to follow the pre season to make sure the game time will be there!

Thanks again
 

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Rowsus - Andrew Swallow to get the most points for the Roos this season at $4.00 - is it as easy money as I think it is?
No, it's not. I assume it is total points, so while he may deserve to be in the first 2 or 3 picks, and could very well win it, I only consider it a small over, rather than easy money.
 
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