Rowsus, would you have numbers at hand on how the magic number has changed throughout the year over the last few seasons, please?
I understand that it starts at its peak, declines fairly quickly over the first eight rounds or so, then declines more slowly thereafter, but would be interested in the numbers if you they are readily accessible for you (even if it was, say just round 1, 9 and the final round). Thanks again.
I understand that it starts at its peak, declines fairly quickly over the first eight rounds or so, then declines more slowly thereafter, but would be interested in the numbers if you they are readily accessible for you (even if it was, say just round 1, 9 and the final round). Thanks again.
I can tell you the general pattern is that it drops around 6% going into Rnd 3, for the first price changes, and from there the variations can fluctuate. It is totally dependant on how many Rookies play, so the data in GC's and GWS' first few season skew the data a little, as there were more Rookies playing more consistently.
Last year it made some really unpredictable fluctuations, which had me questioning whether they have altered the system some what. Here is how the first rounds looked last season:
5394, 5394, 5014, 5003, 4941, 4980, 5064(!), 4994, 5065(!), 5044, 5001
Those red numbers look wrong to me, and I concede I may have made some error in calculation. It is not unknown for the MN to have a few up weeks, but I've never known to go up so much, then follow an up, down, up pattern that is so pronounced. In other seasons, when it has risen, it is a minimal amount, around 10-15 points. For the most part, when trying to buil a model for it, I found if you drop it around 5-7% in Rnd 3, then around 1% in round 4, then slowly reduce the reductions down to about 0.2%. This doesn't factor in the 4 or 5 weeks when it rises slightly, but gives a workable approximate. That assumes they haven't overhauled the method they use, which after last seasons numbers, is quite possible.
Sorry I couldn't be more exact for you.