Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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G'day Rowsus - family, health and even work must come first. Its a personal comment, but I may well speak for others here when I say the time and effort you put into answering questions and prompting other ideas is absolutely outstanding and highly appreciated. Even a short break will only serve to underscore how much we rely on (i.e., no pressure amigo).
Hi Stephen,
it's not a Black or White type question. It has an element of Mike's question in it (hence the included quote), in that you need to look at what you could do with the extra cash, if you downgraded Caddy to a Rookie. Let's say that Rookie cost $164k, and it gave you $250k to use in upgrading elsewhere. The general rule of thumb, is around $5,000/point. That means you can make about 50 points worth of upgrades. A Prem mid to a Super Prem etc. Even if we assume you only managed 40 points worth of upgrades, it means the Rookie that replaced Caddy (on the field, not in your team!) only needs to average 60+ for you to be in front, both dollar-wise and point-wise!!!
Having said that, it is quite possible for Caddy to be considered a successful selection if he achieves 100/game. It's a little bit like Moloney from 2013. He cost $362,400 in Rnd 1. He peaked in price after Rnd 7 at $481,100, and yes he was averaging 100 to that point. There were not too many that jumped off him at that stage, thinking they had found a bargain. Most of those that did, can probably claim him to be a successful pick, the circumstances described above not withstanding. Anyone that held him beyond that point probably lost any advantage gained. It is very hard to trade out a player that is scoring just below Keeper level. There are always bigger problems to fix, or better upgrades to make. If you can overcome that hurdle, then Caddy can be a good pick, not withstanding the first section above. He also becomes a good pick if averages 100 and you aren't able to improve your team in other areas with the $250k, but that seems doubtful. The last way in which he could be considered a good pick, is if you can carry him through to be M9. The problem is, it is nearly impossible to carry a $400k+ plus player through to be just coverage. Not many Coaches have been able to trade well enough, or generate enough cash to achieve this.
In summary, yes he can be considered a good pick if he averages 100, the first clause notwithstanding, but it will take some exceptional management by you to make it happen. It is much easier to manage a Rookie, than a Midpriced player that scores just below Keeper level.
it's not a Black or White type question. It has an element of Mike's question in it (hence the included quote), in that you need to look at what you could do with the extra cash, if you downgraded Caddy to a Rookie. Let's say that Rookie cost $164k, and it gave you $250k to use in upgrading elsewhere. The general rule of thumb, is around $5,000/point. That means you can make about 50 points worth of upgrades. A Prem mid to a Super Prem etc. Even if we assume you only managed 40 points worth of upgrades, it means the Rookie that replaced Caddy (on the field, not in your team!) only needs to average 60+ for you to be in front, both dollar-wise and point-wise!!!
Having said that, it is quite possible for Caddy to be considered a successful selection if he achieves 100/game. It's a little bit like Moloney from 2013. He cost $362,400 in Rnd 1. He peaked in price after Rnd 7 at $481,100, and yes he was averaging 100 to that point. There were not too many that jumped off him at that stage, thinking they had found a bargain. Most of those that did, can probably claim him to be a successful pick, the circumstances described above not withstanding. Anyone that held him beyond that point probably lost any advantage gained. It is very hard to trade out a player that is scoring just below Keeper level. There are always bigger problems to fix, or better upgrades to make. If you can overcome that hurdle, then Caddy can be a good pick, not withstanding the first section above. He also becomes a good pick if averages 100 and you aren't able to improve your team in other areas with the $250k, but that seems doubtful. The last way in which he could be considered a good pick, is if you can carry him through to be M9. The problem is, it is nearly impossible to carry a $400k+ plus player through to be just coverage. Not many Coaches have been able to trade well enough, or generate enough cash to achieve this.
In summary, yes he can be considered a good pick if he averages 100, the first clause notwithstanding, but it will take some exceptional management by you to make it happen. It is much easier to manage a Rookie, than a Midpriced player that scores just below Keeper level.
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G'day Rowsus,
I see your back into it up to your head once again. Great work once again and I appreciate your time and effort that you put into it.
My first question for the season is have you considered not starting Ablett?
Yes he is a gun and yes in the past he has shown us to be a proven reliable captain and scorer.
I currently have him in my team but I am still tempted to take him out and use the cash elsewhere.
He is getting on in age and coming back from a shoulder dislocation. His shoulder will be targeted and the chances of it popping out again is fairly high. Not too mention there is talk he will spend more time in fwd line.
Many players have never fully recovered from dislocations. (I am speaking from experience myself in dislocating shoulders - ha ha)
Just thought I would throw it out there. I have Rocky in my team aswell who is an adequate capt. choice replacement as he showed us last year.
Cheers Sam
I see your back into it up to your head once again. Great work once again and I appreciate your time and effort that you put into it.
My first question for the season is have you considered not starting Ablett?
Yes he is a gun and yes in the past he has shown us to be a proven reliable captain and scorer.
I currently have him in my team but I am still tempted to take him out and use the cash elsewhere.
He is getting on in age and coming back from a shoulder dislocation. His shoulder will be targeted and the chances of it popping out again is fairly high. Not too mention there is talk he will spend more time in fwd line.
Many players have never fully recovered from dislocations. (I am speaking from experience myself in dislocating shoulders - ha ha)
Just thought I would throw it out there. I have Rocky in my team aswell who is an adequate capt. choice replacement as he showed us last year.
Cheers Sam
G'day Slammer,
I have definitely considered not starting Ablett. If he shows any signs of vulnerability during the NAB he may just find himself out of my team, too. There is no doubt teams will test that shoulder out, and as you said, some people never get back to anywhere near 100% with shoulder injuries.
I think the best option is to plan to start him, and if there is cause, then dump him. Building a team without him, then trying to rearrange everything to get him is a much harder approach to Round 1.
I have definitely considered not starting Ablett. If he shows any signs of vulnerability during the NAB he may just find himself out of my team, too. There is no doubt teams will test that shoulder out, and as you said, some people never get back to anywhere near 100% with shoulder injuries.
I think the best option is to plan to start him, and if there is cause, then dump him. Building a team without him, then trying to rearrange everything to get him is a much harder approach to Round 1.
I'm still mentally scarred by not starting Ablett last year (Rowsus from memory I believe you were in the same boat?) to even consider not going with him this year. The guy is just a gun and by trying to be to clever last year I paid the price. I now believe there is just too much to lose by not starting him and it was just a nightmare trying to get him into my team!
Just wandering on your thoughts on Sandilands as a pinch hitter before the byes. Likely to be a huge POD at full price. We know he can pump out some massive scores and he seems to start seasons better than the run home. At 580k, even if he has an "average" early run i would still think he will be around 500k, which should make bringing in another premium ruck no problem.
Anyway, what are your thoughts? Cheers.
Anyway, what are your thoughts? Cheers.
Rowsus, would you have numbers at hand on how the magic number has changed throughout the year over the last few seasons, please?
I understand that it starts at its peak, declines fairly quickly over the first eight rounds or so, then declines more slowly thereafter, but would be interested in the numbers if you they are readily accessible for you (even if it was, say just round 1, 9 and the final round). Thanks again.
I understand that it starts at its peak, declines fairly quickly over the first eight rounds or so, then declines more slowly thereafter, but would be interested in the numbers if you they are readily accessible for you (even if it was, say just round 1, 9 and the final round). Thanks again.
Westhoff is an interesting player. In the past he played back, or forward, many times in the one game. When he went back, he was taking many intercept marks, which is great for SC scores. Watching him play, it was like he "snuck" back there many times, and the opposition didn't man him up too often. Ryder really changes this dynamic. I can't see Ryder, Schulz and Westhoff sharing the Fwd line too often, and Westhoff is the one with the versatility, so he may play even more up the ground than previous seasons. The problem is, he won't be sneaking up there too much anymore, so will likely be manned up more. For this reason, I won't be starting him. Just an interesting aside, some people like Westhoff because they think he picks up a few "bonus points" by getting a few Hitouts each game. He actually had less Hitouts than Ollie Wines last season!
Dunn's biggest problem is that he asked to fill so many different roles in a season. He can be a rebounding Def, or a extra KPP Def, or even a run with player. He's sort of Melbourne's Mr Fixit. Only one of those roles is SC friendly, and I'm not sure he gets to play that role often enough, to ever push into the 90+ area for a season.
Dunn's biggest problem is that he asked to fill so many different roles in a season. He can be a rebounding Def, or a extra KPP Def, or even a run with player. He's sort of Melbourne's Mr Fixit. Only one of those roles is SC friendly, and I'm not sure he gets to play that role often enough, to ever push into the 90+ area for a season.
Yes, I broke my number 1 rule in selection last season (pick your 2 Captains first, price is no object!), and paid dearly for it. It all occured in the most dangerous period of the season. The last 15 minutes before the first Lockout! This year I am playing it safe, and having my wife handcuff me away from my computer in that last 15 minutes!
Hi Rowsus
I would appreciate your thoughts on Jamie Macmillan DEF for $270k from the Kangas.
He was out injured for the majority of last year but Chris Scott brought him back for the finals (which says to me he rates him).
2012 and 2013 played every game and averaged 63 and 73.
Considering the lack of rookie options in defence this year I'm hoping he will be a great cheaper option as I believe he is in the Kangas best 22.
Thoughts please?
I would appreciate your thoughts on Jamie Macmillan DEF for $270k from the Kangas.
He was out injured for the majority of last year but Chris Scott brought him back for the finals (which says to me he rates him).
2012 and 2013 played every game and averaged 63 and 73.
Considering the lack of rookie options in defence this year I'm hoping he will be a great cheaper option as I believe he is in the Kangas best 22.
Thoughts please?
I know he's getting older, had had injury problems, and supposedly suffers under the new Ruck rules, but I'm just not sure why he isn't appearing in more teams. It's partly what I just mentioned, and I think partly people thinking he is priced so much higher than last season.
Looking at THCLT's great thread Having troubles deciding on which PREMIUMS to start in your SC team, we can see that Sandi definitely drops off, score-wise, in the 2nd half of the season. The only problem I see with your plan is timing. When do you trade him out? I would only consider trading him out if you already have cover. There'd be few Things worse, than Trading Sandi out one week, and having your new Prem Ruck go missing the next week!
Looking at THCLT's great thread Having troubles deciding on which PREMIUMS to start in your SC team, we can see that Sandi definitely drops off, score-wise, in the 2nd half of the season. The only problem I see with your plan is timing. When do you trade him out? I would only consider trading him out if you already have cover. There'd be few Things worse, than Trading Sandi out one week, and having your new Prem Ruck go missing the next week!
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