Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Juzzo]

Hi Row,
Haven't asked you many questions lately, but I'm really struggling this week to decide on trades. Only 8 trades before this week starts.
After some thought my thinking is:
Salem to Lids (expensive I know, Harvey might be better option next week)
CEY to Parker (sloane option too)
Hogan to Lambert (to mids via Martin)


This will set up link in mids with Lambert and complete my forward line. I then have 5 trades to get in one more mid prem and to fix my defence as best I can.

Thoughts appreciated.
Team linked.

Cheers mate.

 

[jaca]

Thanks, Rohan. Plenty to ponder today!

 

[Deeman1]

Hi Demman1,
great being a Melbourne supporter, and having and watching Gawn play last week!
What about option 4. Lumumba to Smith? Smith's b/E is lower than Hibberds, and given you've still got some upgrades, and half upgrades to make, a value purchase at D6 might be justified. Keeping Lever a little longer, to try and squeeze another price rise out of him could be useful, too!

Thanks for your advice and time Rowsus.

I reckon for now, I might just sit on the 3rd Trade and see how things turn out.

Pending selection, I should have 19-20 available this week, so probably not a whole lot to be gained by the 3rd trade.

I had considered Lumumba - Smith, but Smith's price is not going upward in a hurray, so will be available at a bargin price for some time yet.

And yes, as a long suffering Dees supporter, it was great to finally have a bit to smile about last week, both from the point of having Gawn in my team and finally having a great result at KP, which ash been the site of many maulings in the past...

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I reckon Sloaney can average as much as Dangerfield from here out (or within 5 ppg anyway). So I'm thinking a straight swap this week looks the go as Danger IMO has topped out and Rory is mintly priced. Frees up 150k.

Leaves me with 258k and the only line really needing strengthening is the backline with: Houli, Gibson, Simpson, McGovern, Saad, B Smith

I'll have 7 trades left with Lever (234k) left to cull.

My plan is to cull him in a week or two after a couple more games of footy, fingers crossed, then use a couple of trades over the next handful of weeks to "top up" the backs. Hopefully B Smith has risen enough in price (to be nearly 400k) to upgrade he & Saad or McGovern.

Thoughts?

Hi Santoz,
I like it. You have an over-valued asset, Dangerfield ($653,000, B/E 153 valued to return 129.8), that is extremely unlikely to match his vtr, and will start to drop in value, and you want to swap it to an under-valued asset, Sloane ($483,500, B/E 77 valued to return 96.1), that we can be very confident will outstrip his vtr, and will start to rise in value. It frees up $169,500 in readily usable funds, and should have little to no effect on your returns (your SC weekly score).
A perfect use of the Dimma/Cloke move. I'm all for it, but only because you have the trades to do it, and enough to complete your team with a few to spare.
Nice work, Santoz.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus;

Just wondering about your thoughts on Jobe Watson, and whether he's worth bringing in.

Hey Eagling,
there are two ways to look at Watson. He's a 115/game player, that every season (bar one), reduces his average to the 106-111 area with injury affected scores.
You can say he's had his injury affected scores for the season, and should start producing something in the 115/game area, or you can say he's over 30 now, and his body just doesn't bounce back from the battering it's been getting over so many seasons.
I think the latter, and even though he will probably outstrip his price ($468,200 B/E 102 vtr 93), I doubt he can do much better than fill a cheap M8 role. If you take him, I'd expect something in the PIT70 mid/low 100's, not in the 110 area.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

I'm looking towards next week and thinking of trading out Grundy. Witts being in the side seems to affect his scoring, and he was never a permanent option anyway. So after trades this week I will have enough to get Blicavs (just affordable), NicNat or Jacobs. I would love Blicavs but is he over priced now? Jacobs is quite good value and would leave me a bit of change.

Cheers!

Blicavs ($567,400 B/E 53 vtr 112.8)
Will continue to rise in price with last weeks 153 to cycle through. Only has two easy games to come (GWS Rnd 17, StK 21) and three tough games (Nth 15, Syd 19, Haw 20). He's a great pick for League oriented Coaches, having StK in the Prelim, and Coll in the GF. He's unlikely to outstrip his vtr, as he only has 5 scores higher than 113 so far, and his vtr will rise in the next 2 weeks, which is when you are looking at getting him. He falls into the luxury catagory right now, and should only be considered by Coaches that have both trades enough, and cash raising options enough, to finish their team in a timely, and uncompromised way. The exception to this would be the like-for-like trade on an LTI Ruck, like Mumford last week.
NicNat ($553,200, B/E 37, vtr 110.0)
Last 4 scores: Geel 152, Nth 79, Ess 147, Rich 146. Before this hot streak he only had three scores above 83 in his first 8 games. Rnd 1 WBull 92, Rnd 2 Carl 103, Rnd 8 StK 103. Has one easy game (Stk 23) and a horror stretch from Rnd 17 with Syd, (GC), Haw, Fre. His 6 best scores, with one exception, have come against teams/Rucks he can dominate: Geel (only Blicavs that day, we saw with Gawn what that does!), Ess, WBull, Carl, StK with last weeks Richmond score being the exception. I do have a problem with that score though, as I wrote earlier in the week. NicNats SC:AF after quarter time was 35:86, when the better Rucks average 1.1:1, even if we give him a 1.2:1 after quarter time, his score falls to 102 last week, instead of the 146.
Given his draw, and the fact that his price, and vtr will continue to rise, he too falls into the luxury trade area. I'm not convinved he's back, even though he has averaged 131 in his last 4 games. I can't see him averaging 110 from here to the end of the season.
Jacobs ($519,000, B/E 97, vtr 103.2)
Has the toughest draw of all the better Rucks. Has Port 16, Syd 18, Rich 19 and none of the easiest teams (StK, Carl, GWS). He does get Geel in Rnd 14, which looks like becoming an easy opposition, if it is just Blicavs/Walker. He probably represents better value than the other two, but may not outscore them.
It's a really tough decision. The ruck is an area I usually suggest you don't skimp on what you'll pay, as it is a very important area, with only 2 starters, and it's easy to give up points if you get it wrong. But at this time of the year, it can be tough to overpay for anyone. If you can complete your team, without making compromised selections, or waiting too long, I'd go Blicavs, if you can't, I'd go Jacobs.

Hey Rowsus. To add some more background to my question above, I thought I'd share this week's trade plans:

Out - McIntosh, McKenzie, Tarrant
In - Edwards, Sloane, Steele

Leaves 8 trades and just over $132K.

Finishes my midfield with Rocky waiting on the pine. Eventually Cripps will become a forward via Steele to provide mid/fwd cover. Once the likes of Boston, Hamling etc fatten a bit more I will trade Boston to a defender. Saad will stay as cover between mid/def.

Looks like a good plan!
Good luck

 

[Johnsy44]

Hey mate whats a better option
im getting Bryne in fwd this week.
should i trade Lever - Edwards this week and get Gov next so i have a dpp between gov and bryne
or
get docherty this week and no dpp?

 

[Bobbie]

Thanks for the above advice Rowsus. If only I had picked Blicavs back in round one instead of McEvoy......!!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Just wanted your insight on B Goddard v D Swan as to who would be the better pick and also how they would finish off the year?
I need to pick 1 of them to finish off my FWD line which consist of;
Gray, Martin, Dahlhaus, Bennell, Tmitchell, FWD PREM, (Krak, H Goddard)

Thank you in advance and if theres any other scers out there willing to share there insights.

Hi teatai,
sorry for the late response. I'd go Goddard over Swan, just. Swan has been massively under-scored in some games this season, and if that continues, you'd be better with Goddard.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for the above advice Rowsus. If only I had picked Blicavs back in round one instead of McEvoy......!!

I did my best to avoid the ".... like I told you to in Rnd 1" bit!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Just wondering the rough increase/decrease in price of Brodie Smith for a couple of scores this week, maybe 40, 80, 120

Cheers, Goodie

Hi GG,

B Smith $317,300 B/E 54
Scores 40 - $311,100
Scores 50 - $315,500
Scores 60 - $319,900
Scores 80 - $328,700
Scores 100 - $337,500
Scores 120 - $346,300

Hi Rowsus, what do you think of Brodie Smith?
We all know he is cheap for a reason but is there a strong reasoning for bringing him in as a D6/D7 player?
His price is very cheap for his potential output.
Thanks mate!

Hi MMM,
I think he's a great value pick, for Coaches like myself that will struggle to fill their 22, but I don't think he'll be a top 6 Def from Rnds 13 - 23. If you can slot him into D7 as cover, without stalling finishing your team, that's a great use for him, for teams up the pointy end, that have a good few trades left.

 

[Zagbag]

NicNat ($553,200, B/E 37, vtr 110.0)
Before this hot streak he only had three scores above 83 in his first 8 games.

Whenever I say a statistic in the form "Player only averages X in his last Y games" I think the poster should also have to post what their average is in the last Y+1 games....

Similar story here, NicNat may have only had three scores above 83 in his first 8 games, but he also managed five scores over 82 in that same eight games.....

Not having a go at you Rowsus, I just enjoy the different ways to manipulate stats....

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, to keep Selwood - that is the question? if i move him this week i can get Titch in to finish my forwards (other trades will be Tarrant/Lumumba to S Edwards/ Houli). leaves me 6 trades with Oxley at D6 and Cripps at M8 - ouch! Or, hold him and next week trade Cripps to Gawn at F6, open up Fwd/Ruck link, and eventually upgrade Oxley to Rocky/Gaz, 4 trades for LTI's. Not happy with my trades left but like you fate has played a part. i'd have links everywhere and rookies on the bench covering, incl Krak. please help!

Hi ****,
as much as it pains me, I think you need to hold him, and probably go the Gawn route. There's more pain in backing against a champion, who comes back and proves you wrong, than backing the Champion in, and being disappointed. Mitchell probably outscores Gawn, but Gawn gives you extra dollars, and that Ruck coverage. Keep in mind, that Ruck coverage is only as good as your F7, so you do need to find a reliable F7.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row,
Haven't asked you many questions lately, but I'm really struggling this week to decide on trades. Only 8 trades before this week starts.
After some thought my thinking is:
Salem to Lids (expensive I know, Harvey might be better option next week)
CEY to Parker (sloane option too)
Hogan to Lambert (to mids via Martin)


This will set up link in mids with Lambert and complete my forward line. I then have 5 trades to get in one more mid prem and to fix my defence as best I can.

Thoughts appreciated.
Team linked.

Cheers mate.

Hi Juzzo,
I don't think you can afford to be trading in Deledio. Goddard and Harvey are probably comparable in score from here, and cost a lot less. You need to stretch your dollars as far as you can, as you need quite a few upgrades yet, and not many trades left. Similarly with Parker, though he's priced less than Deledio. You might need to compromise, and try and find one or two value selections, to get more points for your dollars.
At Deledio's price you want to get 11 games @ 115.5 from him. I can't see him doing either of those two things! Goddard works out to 11 games @ 105.2 and Harvey to 10 games @ 96.4. I know which of the 3 is least likely to give you value for money!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey mate whats a better option
im getting Bryne in fwd this week.
should i trade Lever - Edwards this week and get Gov next so i have a dpp between gov and bryne
or
get docherty this week and no dpp?

If you're getting Byrne then I'd get Gov/Higgins, then at least Byrne has some use, otherwise he is potentially just dead wood.

 

[Rowsus]

Whenever I say a statistic in the form "Player only averages X in his last Y games" I think the poster should also have to post what their average is in the last Y+1 games....

Similar story here, NicNat may have only had three scores above 83 in his first 8 games, but he also managed five scores over 82 in that same eight games.....

Not having a go at you Rowsus, I just enjoy the different ways to manipulate stats....

I understand what you are saying, and I know you're not having a go at me, but I think you are looking at it the wrong way, in this particular case.
Nobody would be too interested that any player, that you are really hoping might be 100+ player, has had 5 scores of 82 or higher in an 8 game period. That really doesn't tell them much, or paint a picture. That might mean that they've had 5 scores of between 82 and 88, and that's no good to anybody. We're not looking for a 100+ player to have scores that can best be described as "82 and higher" They might be interested in the fact that, that same player, has only had 3 scores higher than 83 in that same 8 game period. That tells people something. If you are interested in this supposed 100+ per game player, and you know he's only got past 83 three times in an 8 game period, that rings alarm bells. Less than 50% of his scores would be considered good/useful in that period. Telling people he got past 82 5 times in an 8 game period will only lead to the inevitable question "Ok, how much past 82 were those scores?". In this case, it isn't by much! The answer would be, he passed 82 by 1, 1, 10, 21, 21. The three scores above 83 in an 8 game period tells people what they need to know, and to demonstrate it further, I listed the three scores, so people could see, they weren't monsters, even very good scores.

 

[teatai]

Hi teatai,
sorry for the late response. I'd go Goddard over Swan, just. Swan has been massively under-scored in some games this season, and if that continues, you'd be better with Goddard.

It's alright youre a busy man I understand, I backed myself into getting Goddard last minute and just hope he can beat Swan.
Appreciated your work, cheers!

 

[Eagling]

Hey Rowsus; this is my team with $142, 800 in the bank and 15 trades/3 trades left this week. I'm looking to cull McIntosh, Ellis-Yolmen and Tarrant; but beyond that I have little idea of what to do. If you've got the spare time, it would be great to know what you would do in my situation.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus; this is my team with $142, 800 in the bank and 15 trades/3 trades left this week. I'm looking to cull McIntosh, Ellis-Yolmen and Tarrant; but beyond that I have little idea of what to do. If you've got the spare time, it would be great to know what you would do in my situation.

Hey Eagling,
First of all let me say, well done on building such a formidable line up having only used 15 trades!!!
You have as many as 19 or 20 players that could be considered Keepers/Starters, so we really are looking at building better coverage, Building some DPP links, and upgrading some of the "lower" starters.

Tradeable Rookies
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]Price[/td]
[td]B/E[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Ellis-Yolman[/td]
[td]$368,300[/td]
[td]100[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]McIntosh[/td]
[td]$309,100[/td]
[td]91[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Tarrant[/td]
[td]$290,200[/td]
[td]76[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Saad[/td]
[td]$389,300[/td]
[td]66[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Krakouer[/td]
[td]$268,500[/td]
[td]54[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Cripps[/td]
[td]$464,600[/td]
[td]42[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]McKenzie[/td]
[td]$207,800[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

I think you are in the quite enviable position, that you can afford to overpay for players, just because you think they will be the best scorers. Not too much mind you, but you can. With that in mind, I think you can only make one upgrade this week, but can build a bank for more upgrades next week. You could make two, if you took a "lesser" player, but I think I'd wait a week for a better player.
I'd be looking at:

Tarrant to McLean/Lambert/Byrne - Obviously Byrne would leave you with a donut this week, assuming McKenzie doesn't make the cut. He's still worth considering getting in at some stage. While you have the Higgins/McGovern DPP swing-set, it is important to note, they only provide cover for each other. If you add Byrne to the equation, you can cover more than just the players in the swing-set. Given the strength of your Fwd line, Byrne might be better suited sitting at D8, and coming in when Hamling or A Pearce go out. You should definitely consider a link that will provide more coverage than just Higgins and Mcgov covering each other. Lambert is the bigger risk, as far JS goes, but also, on paper, offers the greatest potential reward, as well as being the cheapest. Even if he has the Green vest, it is worth strongly considering him over McLean.

Given the state of your Defs, I don't think you need another Rookie down there with a low game count. That being the case, I would downgrade CEY to a Rookie

CEY to Kavanagh/Lambert/Steele - As with Byrne, Steele has the donut downside attached, but potentially might be the best of the 3 going further into the season. Realistically it is probably Lambert or Kavanagh.

That leaves McIntosh to the Def of your choice. Looking at your team, it looks like you are a careful shopper, play a bit on the conservative side, and don't like to overpay. That to me says get Houli. I myself, would probably get Hodge. Yes, he will miss games, and get managed, but you have the depth and quality of bench to cover it, or you will have late in the season, when it is likely to happen.

I would say, if it was my team, I would be going:
Tarrant/CEY/McIntosh to Lambert/Kavanagh/Hodge.
I could fully understand if you went to McLean/Lambert/Houli though.

That would leave you around $300k to go shopping next week, and to upgrade Oxley to Heppell/Hannebery by restoring your DPP D/M link.
Which ever way you jump, I hope it works out for you.

 

[Eagling]

Hey Eagling,
First of all let me say, well done on building such a formidable line up having only used 15 trades!!!
You have as many as 19 or 20 players that could be considered Keepers/Starters, so we really are looking at building better coverage, Building some DPP links, and upgrading some of the "lower" starters.

Tradeable Rookies
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]Price[/td]
[td]B/E[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Ellis-Yolman[/td]
[td]$368,300[/td]
[td]100[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]McIntosh[/td]
[td]$309,100[/td]
[td]91[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Tarrant[/td]
[td]$290,200[/td]
[td]76[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Saad[/td]
[td]$389,300[/td]
[td]66[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Krakouer[/td]
[td]$268,500[/td]
[td]54[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Cripps[/td]
[td]$464,600[/td]
[td]42[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]McKenzie[/td]
[td]$207,800[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

I think you are in the quit enviable position, that you can afford to overpay for players, just because you think they will be the best scorers. Not too much mind you, but you can. With that in mind, I think you can only make one upgrafe this week, but can build a bank for more upgrades next week. You could make two, if you took a "lesser" player, but I think I'd wait a week for a better player.
I'd be looking at:

Tarrant to McLean/Lambert/Byrne - Obviously Byrne would leave you with a donut this week, assuming McKenzie doesn't make the cut. He's still worth considering getting in at some stage. While you have the Higgins/McGovern DPP swing-set, it is important to note, they only provide cover for each other. If you add Byrne to the equation, you can cover more than just the players in the swing-set. Given the strength of your Fwd line, Byrne might be better suited sitting at D8, and coming in when Hamling or A Pearce go out. You should definitely consider a link that will provide more coverage than just Higgins and Mcgov covering each other. Lambert is the bigger risk, as far JS goes, but also, on paper, offers the greatest potential reward, as well as being the cheapest. Even if he has the Green vest, it is worth strongly considering him over McLean.

Given the state of your Defs, I don't think you need another Rookie down there with a low game count. That being the case, I would downgrade CEY to a Rookie

CEY to Kavanagh/Lambert/Steele - As with Byrne, Steele has the donut downside attached, but potentially might be the best of the 3 going further into the season. Realistically it is probably Lambert or Kavanagh.

That leaves McIntosh to the Def of your choice. Looking at your team, it looks like you are a careful shopper, play a bit on the conservative side, and don't like to overpay. That to me says get Houli. I myself, would probably get Hodge. Yes, he will miss games, and get managed, but you have the depth and quality of bench to cover it, or you will have late in the season, when it is likely to happen.

I would say, if it was my team, I would be going:
Tarrant/CEY/McIntosh to Lambert/Kavanagh/Hodge.
I could fully understand if you went to McLean/Lambert/Houli though.

That would leave you around $300k to go shopping next week, and to upgrade Oxley to Heppell/Hannebery by restoring your DPP D/M link.
Which ever way you jump, I hope it works out for you.

Thanks for the advice, Rowsus.

I started off with GAJ and Rockliff, then traded in Sloane and Smith at peak price (for those two) as well as holding Wines, so although I've got a decent amount of trades left, I'm sitting at 4-7 in my main league, because last year I went through a lot of trades, and although I started swiftly, my trades ran dry and I ended up losing in the Semi-Final.

I've tried to hold as many trades as possible, so I've sometimes missed out on potential bargains (Priddis, although I got TMitch instead, and Dangerfield). I was wary of Hodge because of his price and risk of missing games, but if you endorse him I might very well grab him.

As an aside, it's interesting to note, that while a lot of people who own Selwood and Kennedy have been looking to trade them out, I've been closely watching them with the idea to trade them in over the past few weeks.

I like the idea of going with a Mid 9/10/11 of Cripps/Saad/Steele. If I went on gut instinct, I'd get GAJ in as soon as he was named, but pragmatism means that I would wait a couple of games. I also reckon Cripps will be handy enough cover to warrant keeping him.

I reckon I need Hodge's potential monster scores to have a chance in my league. I went Edwards over Deledio (short term burn at least) last week because I was apprehensive of the extra price, and the resting/injury concern.