Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Morning Rowan,

Just a nice easy one for you this Wednesday (hump day) morning: what are your thoughts on Aaron "The Man Mountain" Sandilands? Value or too risky?

Morning t.t6,
he's in my team at R2, and unless he gets some sort of niggle before Round 1, I can't see him coming out. I will be sitting Giles/Witts at R3 as a psuedo Cash Cow/cover, just in case I need cover. All things being equal, Sandi might get to about $525k before the inevitable problem strikes, but he'll hopefully be an easy fix by then.

 

[t.thomas6]

Morning t.t6,
he's in my team at R2, and unless he gets some sort of niggle before Round 1, I can't see him coming out. I will be sitting Giles/Witts at R3 as a psuedo Cash Cow/cover, just in case I need cover. All things being equal, Sandi might get to about $525k before the inevitable problem strikes, but he'll hopefully be an easy fix by then.

Thanks Rowan I currently have him as my R2 as well and feel even more sound now that Clarke has a bit of a niggle. Now to decide on cover...

 

[jarrad_]

thanks for the reply in regards to hickey


due to the lack of good forwards(in my opinion anyway) i really like christian petracca as an option do you agree?

could he potentially average 98 like martin did in his 2nd year?

 

[Rowsus]

The sun is shining and Rowsus is back at his desk. The long dark (10-week) Supercoach winter is over.

I'd like to see a table for Eddie Betts, please. Like the look of those 10 ADE matches leading up to their bye (6 at home and I'd predict them to win 9 out of the 10) and thought Betts might be the way to go if looking for a shark move.

If you have a Crows player in mind who you think would better suit the purpose, I'd be all ears to that too.

Many thanks and great to have this thread back for my breakfast reading. Much better (and less depressing) than the newspaper.

The problen I see, is that Betts only had 2 areas that averaged enough to make him an ok pick. When playing bottom 6 teams, and when winning at home. He averages around 100 in that situation. If it was 115-120 it might worth risking him to get an early burst, but it looks like even if they win 9 of their 10, he might be averaging 100 at best, so won't have made much cash, and will leave you with a trade/hold dilemma, as he's very unlikely to average 100 for the season. I'm also concerned he can go long periods of mediocre scoring:
Rnds 1 - 4 Ave 113, 3 x 100+ scores
Rnds 5 - 18 Ave 77, 1 x 100+ score
Rnds 19 - 23 Ave 97, 2 x 100+ scores

 

[Dan45]

Dan45 and I largely agree, except I am more bullish about the Bont improving his 90 average in losses, and his 97 average in wins over 3 goals.

Yeah, I'm confident he'll improve those too. How many close wins do you see the dogs having though, and can his improvement in other categories make up for that? 7 home and away wins by 15 or less is quite a lot- here are the other top 8 teams just for comparison:

Adelaide had 3
Giants had 2
Geelong had 2
Hawthorn had 6 (3 of which were in rounds 2, 3 and 4)
North had 4
Sydney had 4
West Coast had 4

Say we have 5 close wins (still ahead of the pack), 10 larger wins and 7 losses. Without factoring improvement, that gives him an average of (137.3 x 5 + 10 x 97 + 7 x 90)/22 = 104. I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to improve the 137.3, given he was already the match-winner in all of those games. To jump to 110 for the season, he'd have to improve his averages in larger wins and losses by around 8 each. That's a pretty sizeable jump, but it's achievable. To jump to 115, he'd have to improve those averages by around 14 each, which would be pretty huge. All of this is occurring with 5 close wins though, which is still quite a lot. Say the dogs have one less close win, or he doesn't manage to be the match-winner in one of them- that drops his season average by around another 1.5 points.

 

[Rowsus]

The sun is shining and Rowsus is back at his desk. The long dark (10-week) Supercoach winter is over.

I'd like to see a table for Eddie Betts, please. Like the look of those 10 ADE matches leading up to their bye (6 at home and I'd predict them to win 9 out of the 10) and thought Betts might be the way to go if looking for a shark move.

If you have a Crows player in mind who you think would better suit the purpose, I'd be all ears to that too.

Many thanks and great to have this thread back for my breakfast reading. Much better (and less depressing) than the newspaper.

Was it only 10 weeks?

It felt like so much longer.

Rnd 23 finished on the 28th August.
So it's been just over 15 weeks since we saw a SC score, but just over 10 weeks since the GF.

 

[Rowsus]

thanks for the reply in regards to hickey


due to the lack of good forwards(in my opinion anyway) i really like christian petracca as an option do you agree?

could he potentially average 98 like martin did in his 2nd year?

I don't think he'll have the tank to achieve that in 2017, but may be 2018. Potentially 2017? Yes. Likely? No.

 

[Rowsus]

Yeah, I'm confident he'll improve those too. How many close wins do you see the dogs having though, and can his improvement in other categories make up for that? 7 home and away wins by 15 or less is quite a lot- here are the other top 8 teams just for comparison:

Adelaide had 3
Giants had 2
Geelong had 2
Hawthorn had 6 (3 of which were in rounds 2, 3 and 4)
North had 4
Sydney had 4
West Coast had 4

Say we have 5 close wins (still ahead of the pack), 10 larger wins and 7 losses. Without factoring improvement, that gives him an average of (137.3 x 5 + 10 x 97 + 7 x 90)/22 = 104. I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to improve the 137.3, given he was already the match-winner in all of those games. To jump to 110 for the season, he'd have to improve his averages in larger wins and losses by around 8 each. That's a pretty sizeable jump, but it's achievable. To jump to 115, he'd have to improve those averages by around 14 each, which would be pretty huge. All of this is occurring with 5 close wins though, which is still quite a lot. Say the dogs have one less close win, or he doesn't manage to be the match-winner in one of them- that drops his season average by around another 1.5 points.

I like the way you look at, and analyse things, D45. Very similar to myself!
Don't forget in 2015 Freo finished top with 17 wins, 7 of which were under 14 points, and 8 of them under 21!

 

[stephen]

The problen I see, is that Betts only had 2 areas that averaged enough to make him an ok pick. When playing bottom 6 teams, and when winning at home. He averages around 100 in that situation. If it was 115-120 it might worth risking him to get an early burst, but it looks like even if they win 9 of their 10, he might be averaging 100 at best, so won't have made much cash, and will leave you with a trade/hold dilemma, as he's very unlikely to average 100 for the season. I'm also concerned he can go long periods of mediocre scoring:
Rnds 1 - 4 Ave 113, 3 x 100+ scores
Rnds 5 - 18 Ave 77, 1 x 100+ score
Rnds 19 - 23 Ave 97, 2 x 100+ scores

Thanks Rowsus. Yes, that 100 ave in home wins is not quite enough to make up for the risk, is it. Knew it was a longshot, but December is the time for these things.

Would it be pushing my luck to see a table for Rory Sloane? Same thinking about their draw. Wondering if the advantage of that draw will have a significant enough positive affect on him to make him a viable starting pick.

On a related note, I've been playing around with Freowho's spreadsheet and trying to use the draw analysis to fiddle with predictions of how a player will go in the first 10 rounds. Do you have any thoughts on how much positive/negative draws affect midfielders, forwards, defenders, etc?

Ie if a team is predicted to score 100 points above their seasonal average, do you think its fair to say a relevant forward will get 10% of that and a midfielder 5%? Obviously being that specific is a bit silly but was wondering if you'd noticed a trend that midfielders generally do a certain amount better in wins and forwards generally do a certain amount better again. Or do you think it's too player-specific and there's not much point attaching a pattern to it?

The sun is shining and Rowsus is back at his desk. The long dark (10-week) Supercoach winter is over.

Was it only 10 weeks?

It felt like so much longer.

Rnd 23 finished on the 28th August.
So it's been just over 15 weeks since we saw a SC score, but just over 10 weeks since the GF.

Embarrassingly enough I chewed over that very fact in deciding whether to write 10 or 15 and decided that the finals were SC-relevant enough to count.

 

[Darkie]

Rnd 23 finished on the 28th August.
So it's been just over 15 weeks since we saw a SC score, but just over 10 weeks since the GF.

Thanks Rowsus. Yes, that 100 ave in home wins is not quite enough to make up for the risk, is it. Knew it was a longshot, but December is the time for these things.

Would it be pushing my luck to see a table for Rory Sloane? Same thinking about their draw. Wondering if the advantage of that draw will have a significant enough positive affect on him to make him a viable starting pick.

On a related note, I've been playing around with Freowho's spreadsheet and trying to use the draw analysis to fiddle with predictions on how a player will go in the first 10 rounds. Do you have any thoughts on how much positive/negative draws affect midfielders, forwards, defenders, etc?

Ie if a team is predicted to score 100 points above their seasonal average, do you think its fair to say a relevant forward will get 10% of that and a midfielder 5%? Obviously being that specific is a bit silly but was wondering if you'd noticed a trend that midfielders generally do a certain amount better in wins and forwards generally do a certain amount better again. Or do you think it's too player-specific and there's not much point attaching a pattern to it?







Embarrassingly enough I chewed over that very fact in deciding whether to write 10 or 15 and decided that the finals were SC-relevant enough to count.

My comment was more relating to the fact that it's good to be back

 

[t.thomas6]

Morning t.t6,
he's in my team at R2, and unless he gets some sort of niggle before Round 1, I can't see him coming out. I will be sitting Giles/Witts at R3 as a psuedo Cash Cow/cover, just in case I need cover. All things being equal, Sandi might get to about $525k before the inevitable problem strikes, but he'll hopefully be an easy fix by then.

Thanks Rowan I currently have him as my R2 as well and feel even more sound now that Clarke has a bit of a niggle. Now to decide on cover...

Morning Rowan - I have another question for you this fine morning.

What are your thoughts on potential structures (say in the traditional K-M-R format) for 2017 and why?

 

[Darkie]

Hi Rowsus,

A question for you regarding value: is there a specific amount by which you're willing to overpay for a player (relative to your own expectations) who you expect to be one of the top scorers on his line?

Thanks,

Darkie

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

Trying to work out my player averages for the year so have a couple quick ones..

What is a good PIT average to use for defenders, mids and forwards?

Also to work out what a player is priced at, is the number approx 5450?

Thanks

While im asking questions..i was looking at Motlops numbers. He has hovered around the 100 pts/tog for the last 4 years. Do you know of any players who had similar numbers and then jumped to say 115 pts/tog?

He is obviously so inconsistent game to game but his ceiling is as high as any forward. Dont think ill take the risk on him but just wanted to know if there were any players with similar data.

Thanks again

 

[jarrad_]

whats your opinion on tom mitchell becoming rockliff like at hawthorn?

is a huge accumulator like rockliff

teams wont tag him like they dont tag rockliff

doesnt have much competition to steal points away anymore

or do you think he will struggle potentially and more than likely being hawthorns best midfielder

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus. Yes, that 100 ave in home wins is not quite enough to make up for the risk, is it. Knew it was a longshot, but December is the time for these things.

Would it be pushing my luck to see a table for Rory Sloane? Same thinking about their draw. Wondering if the advantage of that draw will have a significant enough positive affect on him to make him a viable starting pick.

While he might benefit from Adelaide's early draw, you have to look at his season prospect as a whole.
I'm concerned on two fronts. While his low TOG% (78%) might imply the opportunity to increase, unless he does increase it to the low 80's, he's probably mired under 110 in SC.
Secondly, his record interstate last year was terrible!!! 10 games at 96, and only four 100+ scores interstate, which weren't very big (103, 106, 114, 114). I had him last season, but I traded him in. On the info we have there, I won't be starting with Sloane.

On a related note, I've been playing around with Freowho's spreadsheet and trying to use the draw analysis to fiddle with predictions of how a player will go in the first 10 rounds. Do you have any thoughts on how much positive/negative draws affect midfielders, forwards, defenders, etc?

Ie if a team is predicted to score 100 points above their seasonal average, do you think its fair to say a relevant forward will get 10% of that and a midfielder 5%? Obviously being that specific is a bit silly but was wondering if you'd noticed a trend that midfielders generally do a certain amount better in wins and forwards generally do a certain amount better again. Or do you think it's too player-specific and there's not much point attaching a pattern to it?

Unfortunately there's no rule on that. Different players, different clubs all work out differently. Sorry I couldn't spot a trend for you.

 

[Rowsus]

Morning Rowan - I have another question for you this fine morning.

What are your thoughts on potential structures (say in the traditional K-M-R format) for 2017 and why?

Morning t.t6,
unfortunately I'm going to have to give you a boring answer here.
The Rookies should determine your structure. It's more important to get the right Rookies, as they will determine how well, and how quickly, you can fill your team. Also, and obviously, the more you get right early, the less corrective trades needed. While I have an idea of a structure I'm working towards, it could suddenly flip right over, depending on Rookie performances and subsequent selection.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

A question for you regarding value: is there a specific amount by which you're willing to overpay for a player (relative to your own expectations) who you expect to be one of the top scorers on his line?

Thanks,

Darkie

Hi Darkie, it's not an easy question to give you a set percentage or dollar amount. A lot depends on the player, and how much you think he will outperform the players just below him.
Shaw in 2016 is a good example. Many had him as a near good thing to finish 6 to 10/game in front of the eventual D2, and were therefore happy to pay a premium for him. I wasn't, as I was happy to say IF he finished D1, it might be 2 or 3/game in front of D2, and I was nearly prepared, at the theoretical odds I imagined from everyone's confidence in Shaw, willing to bet he might not be D1 at the end of the season.
The other thing that muddies the water is the prospect of using the player as a Captain option. It is nearly impossible to put a dollar amount on the utility of a players Captaincy prospects.
We expect a player that performs at around last years average to drop around 7% in price by around Round 6 or 7. If you "overpay" for a player you need to be pretty certain that the downside is small.
Your two Captain selections aside, I don't think you should overpay for any player. The possible exception being, when you've picked your starting line up, with your 12-14 Keepers, and you have a little cash left over, you might consider bumping one of your Keepers up to a player you believe is a safer option, even though you think you are overpaying by 5-10%.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Trying to work out my player averages for the year so have a couple quick ones..

What is a good PIT average to use for defenders, mids and forwards?

Also to work out what a player is priced at, is the number approx 5450?

Thanks

While im asking questions..i was looking at Motlops numbers. He has hovered around the 100 pts/tog for the last 4 years. Do you know of any players who had similar numbers and then jumped to say 115 pts/tog?

He is obviously so inconsistent game to game but his ceiling is as high as any forward. Dont think ill take the risk on him but just wanted to know if there were any players with similar data.

Thanks again

Hey Mike,
I'd say you are looking at around 90-92 for Defs, for Mids around 105-107, and Fwds around 92-94

This your the MN appears to be around 5442, so your 5450 looks close enough.

Players that fit the description you are seeking are mainly Mids. You could look at:
Boak, Curnow, Davis, Douglas, Duncan, Ebert, Foley, Gaff, Gray R, Lobbe, Roughead, Ryder, Sidebottom, Thomas and Waters

 

[Rowsus]

whats your opinion on tom mitchell becoming rockliff like at hawthorn?

is a huge accumulator like rockliff

teams wont tag him like they dont tag rockliff

doesnt have much competition to steal points away anymore

or do you think he will struggle potentially and more than likely being hawthorns best midfielder

I'm not 100% sure he won't be tagged at times.
I'm a bit concerned that he may end up more like S Mitchell, than Rocky.
In 2016 S Mitchell had (including finals):
30 disposals for 95 SC, 31 disposals for 90 SC, 31 disposals for 87 SC.
T Mitchell might become a great accumulator, like S Mitchell was/is, but that's no promise of high SC scores, just ask L Neale!
Hawthorn Mids in the more recent years have struggled to be SC relevant. I think this is more game plan related, than ability related. T Mitchell will need to adapt to Hawthorn's game plan, and that probably means he might only be on the edge of SC relevancy.

 

[Juzzo]

Howdy mate.

I have a dilema.
I am keen on too many mid price defenders.
I have 5 who I am keen on, but that seems way too risky.
Which of these would you give a crack?

Cutler
Howe
Lloyd
Martin
Hammer

Thanks Row.