Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Connoisseur · 19 Jun 2019

Hi Rowsus,

Greatly appreciate your thoughts on whether I should trade Goldy for Gawn or keep Goldy for the remainder of the season.

Both options will allow me to grab 1 of S Menegola/D Mundy to replace C Burgess at F7 providing cover on multiple lines via a downgrade to a mid/fwd loop later on. Keeping Goldy could allow Hore to be upgraded to Hurn or even a D7 brought in to replace G Logue/etc (J Sicily/T Stewart/etc) whereas grabbing Gawn will likely mean I have to hold Hore.

Juzzo · 19 Jun 2019

Hi Row,
It's that awkward time of the year for me again, low on trades and maybe struggling to finish my team.

Defs with Hore at D6 for now, but Whitfield would be nice to finish off, probably can't get him.
Mids are missing Fyfe and Jelly and need to find a M8 to finish off.
Rucks ok, no cover.
Forwards missing Telly and Dunkley.

With poor rookies and donuts for cover it's looking a bit ordinary.
Am thinking hold this week and maybe Balta to Logue next week if Logue goes alright and selected.
How I upgrade the last mid possie is what I am struggling with. No or little cash gen coming up.
Would you suggest compromising to fill or find a way in a couple of weeks to get Jelly or Fyfe, or for that matter upgrade my forward line?
Only interested in ranking and I'm ranked approx 12k.

Would appreciate your thoughts.
Thanks mate.

Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 7.15.28 PM.png

Courtesans · 19 Jun 2019

THCLT said:

@Herbie66

Before Rowan gets to your team, I figured I would chime in to dissect it as well. There's ALWAYS a reason why we allow our team to fall into such a hole midway through a season, we've all done it before myself included. What's important now is for you to acknowledge those reasons (I'm confident that you know them) and apply those learning to make you a better SC coach for next year and beyond.

Most teams are without one of Grundy or Gawn, however, you find yourself without either at Round 14. I feel that it will cause to much of a compromise to your completed team and trade left, IF you were to target just one of them, Grundy being the most likely due to his impending price drop.

I've come up with the following proposal to try and get you to a completed team, as best as practical allowing for adequate bench coverage and trades left to finish off the season. In summary, trades will involve the following:

OUTs: Walsh, Setterfield, Burgess, Answerth, Duursma
INs: Brayshaw, Sidebottom, McEvoy, Logue, Clarke

View attachment 9589

Alternatively, if you really want GRUNDY, then you could hold off the McEvoy trade and wait for Grundy to drop in price to narrow the current gap. My projection has Grundy price at $594,200 with a BE of 130 at the start of Round 17 with him scoring 110 over his next 3 games. You still need to find a downgrade somewhere in order to attain Grundy at Rd17 which means another trade, but this is less critical then as we're only 6 rounds away from the end of the season.

Hope this helps...and please REFRAIN from starting 'futuristic' threads in the future as it's not helpful for anyone.

Gez Thanh....

Rowsus · 19 Jun 2019

Eagling said:

Hi Eagling,
I'd certainly have him listed in the "high risk" catagory, but I suppose if he could pull off last seasons last 8-9 game heroics, he'd be an inspired pick. I just don't like the chances of it happening though. Part of the reason being, we have virtually no Forward line structure this season. That makes those kicks inside 50 less likely to end up being goal assists, or in scoring chains, which diminishes their over all value. They're less likely to end on a Melbourne chest, and more likely to go to a (losing) contest.

2018 averages
Rnds 4-14 : 25.7 disps, 9.9 CP's, Fant 94.1, SC 86.9
Rnds 16-23 : 27.9 disps, 15.3 CP's, Fant 117.5, SC 108.9
His disposals went up a little, his CP's went up a lot! His DT:SC improved a little.
2019 averages
Rnds 1-12 : 25.0 disps, 10.7 CP's, Fant 89.6, SC 94.8

$423,000 - B/E 45 - He represents value, but I would suggest he's only for those short of trades, and desperate for a risky value POD to finish their Midfield. Knowing your usual approach to SC, you don't normally fit this description, so I'd pass if I was you.

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

Rumbler said:

Hey Rumbs,
I'm well, and I hope you are too.
The plan might come down to your season aim. Ranking or League?
If it's Ranking you need to get on the front foot a bit, if it's League, it depends on how you are placed (just outside 8/in the 8/hoping for top 4 etc).
From a pure perspective point of view the upgrades you need are: Defs 2.25, Mids 2.25 Fwds 2 x 0.25
The whole number upgrades are obviously the priorities.
The immediate tools at your disposal are:
Rozee $388,000 B/E 106
Duursma $383,800 B/E 72
Walsh $439,100 B/E 70
Setterfield $265,600 B/E 29

Defense: Lloyd, Whitfield, Laird, Hore, Rozee, Duursma (Answerth, Gardner)
Mids: Neale, Cripps, Merrett, Macrae, Martin, Fyfe, Walsh, O.Baker, (D.Clarke, Hately, Stocker)
Rucks: Grundy, Gawn (O'Brien)
Fwds: Danger, Telly, Dunkley, Boak, Billings, J.Cameron (R.Young, Setterfield)

The good thing is, you are not under any bye pressure this week, so your trades don't need to be forced. 12 Solid Keepers, 2 Ok Keepers, and 6 Rookies isn't a bad line up for the Round.

Defs: Stewart $496,800 B/E 102 - Ryan $524,300 B/E 129 - Sicily $488,600 B/E 96

While each have potential problems, I think Stewart might be the safer option. Ryan has a big B/E and a potential spanner in Logue, though it has only been one game. Sicily got fiddled into the Fwd line last week, it affected his score, and we can't know how often that will happen.

Mids: Oliver $539,300 B/E 85 - Sloane $511,000 B/E 76 - Gaff $564,600 B/E 108 - Kelly J $650,800 B/E 152

Sloane is value, but risky, as is Oliver. Oliver has averaged 116 in his last 5, WITH a 53 in there! Gaff is a solid 108 type player, with a pretty useful Draw coming up, and Kelly's last 7 have been 107-154 (ave 130+!). Kelly could be Royalty, but is really expensive. Still, if one of those 4 was to beat the other 3 by 10-15 from here, it would be Kelly!

As I said, it comes down to your season goal. There's not a lot of downgrade option, unfortunately. If you can find a Rookie you don't hate, and turn Rozee/Answerth into Stewart/Rookie, that'd be where I'd be heading this week. Maybe, possibly, if you can find one a F/D to play?

Eagling · 20 Jun 2019

Rowsus said:

Thanks Rowsus.

My usual approach has gotten me to a 30k ranking, so it might be something that I should do as I usually wouldn't, but I'm going to listen to your wisdom on Melbourne and avoid him.

The big question on my mind will be whether I want to target the players pushing $600k like Dunkley, Jelly and Grundy, or focus on Sloane/Boak/Treloar/Matt Crouch types.

It is means deciding on whether or not I want to upgrade some more disappointing picks lower in the pecking at the cost of more trades.

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

dyii said:

Hi dyii,
a lot depends on whether your goal is Ranking or League. If you are playing for League glory you need to keep more trades to later in the season, where as a Ranking goal means potentially taking risks, and coasting from a bit further out.
If you are playing League, you probably want 4 coming into the finals, but balancing against that, you can't save trades for the finals, and miss the the finals. You are better to use them if it gets you there. That's the first hurdle. If you are playing for Ranking, you can potentially "coast" 4 weeks out, if your cover is good enough. Cover is the key to a Rankings approach, and how many trades you need up your sleeve. Good cover might only need 2 trades for the last 6 weeks, poor cover might need 4 in that time.
If you are going for Ranking, it still might be best to hold of doing those 2 upgrades, and having 1-2 trades left. I'd be tempted to put them back maybe 2 weeks, just in case things go pear shaped more than we hoped or planned for.
I agree with @MC's Mix, that I'd probably hold off on those upgrades, if the perceived improvement is only 10/Round. The trades might prove much more valuable if multiple injuries hit in the coming weeks. Also, you've ridden Rocky this far, with limited trades. Unless he's causing you a donut this week, i'd be tempted to ride him a bit further!

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

Herbie66 said:

Hi Herbie,
WELL ............

First let me say, the answer that @THCLT has given you is above and beyond! I know it is much appreciated by myself, the time and effort he has put into it, as I'm sure it is appreciated by you too!
The biggest problem, with trying to right the trainwreck, and maybe sneaking into the top 50k is the lack of top end stock:
Def: Laird is your top Ranked Def, but is sitting at 8th in the Def list. He's 12, 14 & 18 behind the top 3 Defs, of which you obviously have none.
Mids: You have Cripps 4th, then your next best Mid, on the Mid only table, is Taranto at 16th.
Rucks: Your 2 Rucks are giving up a combined 50/Round to Gawn/Grundy
Fwds: Your best/strongest line, where you have 2nd, 4th, 6th, & 15th.
You can generally hope to make some ground with a POD approach, but you are just giving up too much in having only 3 of the top 14 players. That's too many players that need to fall over, for you to make any significant ground. It also means your Captain selections have been problematical each week, and will continue to be. Combined you are giving up 300-400 pts/round by having virtually no top end stock. I'm 100% behind different and POD approaches, but you need to balance it out with some "safe" picks too.
From here I'd suggest you may as well continue with your POD approach, as aside from 1 maybe 2, you probably can't get enough top end stock to make considerable ground from here. A "I picked him to do better than most people thought" approach might provide you with some entertainment, if you find the right player/s. I know a couple of times, when my season has been cooked, I've found a little hollow pleasure in finding unsuspecting POD's. Outside of that, I'd look very closely at THCLT's plan, and hope around 6-8 of the top end players fall over!
Good luck, and i hope you find some fun in your team, for the remainder of the season.

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

THCLT said:

If it was within my powers to grant it for someone, it would be my pleasure to do it for you, my friend. However, the SC gods and the AFL are having a great laugh at as all this season.

Is it too much to ask? No. Is it too much to expect? Probably!

That aside, I'd just like to mention, that this past week has slipped by, when historically, it will be one of those weeks, when looked back upon, people will wonder:

"Did all those things happen in 1 week???!!!!"

AFL goes into full "gang-busters" mode, and ejects people for some pretty lame/tame barracking.
The AFL actually apologised for something!
Stratton gets 2 weeks for pinching/stomping
Stephenson gets 10 weeks for punting.
Jeff Kennett has a melt down with some very poorly worded/chosen comments.
Vardy's Brayshaw taunt to Gaff would have received far greater press, if it involved a Vic team.

There's 4-6 weeks at least of controversy, squeezed into a 5 day period.

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

Connoisseur said:

Hi Connoisseur,
I guess the simplest approach is the numbers:
Hore ---> Hurn currently costs $181,400
Goldy ---> Gawn currently costs $181,400

The 2nd part of the equation. Assuming all players involved play out the season, how many points are the upgrades worth?
This of course is very subjective. WC have an easy-ish Draw coming up, does this adversely affect Hurn?
Well, let's have a look! Here are WC's results, sorted by margin:

Hurn's 3 lowest scores this season, have come in WC's 3 biggest wins, and his 5 lowest scores (ave 97.8) have come in the games where WC win by 3 goals or more! I'd say that makes Hurn's/WC's Draw mighty important!
So, while it's a small sample size, there is a definite trend in Hurn's scoring this season:
WC win 18+: 5/97.8
WC win 1-17: 3/137.3
WC lose (42-): 3/116
It appears he needs/want close games or losses to maximise his scoring. If WC get on a run, Hurn might go through a sub 100 period.
WC's Draw (Home in bold): Ess, Haw, Fre, Coll, Melb, Nth, Carl, Ade, Rich, Haw

That being the case, I'd be backing Gawn to outscore Goldy, by more than Hurn outscores Hore.

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

Juzzo said:

Hi Juzz,
firstly, Jelly over Fyfe. Fyfe averages missing 3 games/season after Rnd 11/12, so he is high risk to trade in now.
Telly over Dunk, for consistency. And no Ruck cover? To be honest, most will be in that camp, once ROB maxes out.
I think your biggest points to be gained, is at M8. Your biggest problem is, you potentially very quickly have no bench cover.
You could even contemplate getting Telly for M8, and later in the season, if injuries and trades permit, upgrade say Cameron to Jelly.
Aside from that, Answerth to a M/F F/D to hopefully play, Balta to Logue, and you have some cash to play with, or to await Jelly next week.

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

Courtesans said:

He's a marvel when he's in form like that, isn't he?!

Rowsus · 20 Jun 2019

Eagling said:

I think I'd be getting at least 1 of Grundy or Jelly. Their Captain value alone makes them worth the price!

Eagling · 20 Jun 2019

Rowsus said:

I was looking at the possibility of upgrading Goldy to Grundy. Right now there's about a 25 PPG AVG between them, so if Grundy falls a little bit it might not be a bad option to grab him.

That flipside is using another trade, which might mean having Brodie Smith as my D5/D6 with Hore- but say Brodie Smith goes at 75 from here, Goldy pushes up to 105 and Grundy falls to 120, I'd still need to find a defender that will finish the season going 90+, and Grundy has the C potential as you say.

Captains are harder to come by this year. Having Grundy or Jelly will diversify my options because I don't have GWS or Collingwood C options.

Herbie66 · 20 Jun 2019

Rowsus said:

Hi Rowsus

Thanks for taking the time to provide such a detailed and honest assessment of my team , seeing it written like that only highlights the poor season I have had and I accept full responsibility for the decisions I have made , hopefully I can learn from it and get better at it.

Yes very thankful for @THCLT and his ideas and suggestions and will be putting those into action over the next 2 weeks.

Just hoping to stay competitive over the remaining of the season but realistic to know while people are punching out 2400-2500+ I need to be content with my 2200 , thankfully the Ashes are getting closer to take my mind of things.

Thank you once again and good luck to yourself for the rest of the season.

Appreciated

Cheers

Connoisseur · 20 Jun 2019

Rowsus said:

Hi Connoisseur,
I guess the simplest approach is the numbers:
Hore ---> Hurn currently costs $181,400
Goldy ---> Gawn currently costs $181,400

The 2nd part of the equation. Assuming all players involved play out the season, how many points are the upgrades worth?
This of course is very subjective. WC have an easy-ish Draw coming up, does this adversely affect Hurn?
Well, let's have a look! Here are WC's results, sorted by margin:
View attachment 9649

Hurn's 3 lowest scores this season, have come in WC's 3 biggest wins, and his 5 lowest scores (ave 97.8) have come in the games where WC win by 3 goals or more! I'd say that makes Hurn's/WC's Draw mighty important!
So, while it's a small sample size, there is a definite trend in hurn's scoring this season:
WC win 18+: 5/97.8
WC win 1-17: 3/137.3
WC lose (42-): 3/116
It appears he needs/want close games or losses to maximise his scoring. If WC get on a run, Hurn might go through a sub 100 period.
WC's Draw (Home in bold): Ess, Haw, Fre, Coll, Melb, Nth, Carl, Ade, Rich, Haw

That being the case, I'd be backing Gawn to outscore Goldy, by more than Hurn outscores Hore.

Thanks @Rowsus. Hurn would have likely been brought in between Rd15-17 so the differential with the Gawn selection would likely be a lot higher. Thanks for your advice and I'll likely grab Gawn this round but the likely Westhoff omission further complicates matters for this and future rounds.

Fiasco · 20 Jun 2019

Hi Row, I hope you’re well mate. Would love your keen insight in to my predicament.

I’m only playing for leagues this year so still have 16 trades left but my rookie selections have been abysmal and I’m left with not much cash to upgrade my team. Just wondering what you think my best course of action is from here?

Def: Laird, Williams, Sicily, B.Smith, Hore Duursma - Gardner, Burgess

Mids- Cripps, Fyfe, Merrett, Bont, Treloar, Oliver, Coniglio, Answerth - Baker, Rowbottom, Scott

Ruck- Grundy, Gawn, Sweet

Fwd - Dunkley, Kelly, Danger, Boak, Heeney, Balta - Setterfield, Young

I’m at a bit of a loss at which way to go moving forward, only got $13,00 in the bank . Thanks mate.

7/11 · 20 Jun 2019

Herbie66 said:

BBL SC planning just around the corner too. I’ll be working in earnest once we find out confirmed squads and draw. Got a few names of cheapies that may be part of squads in the upcoming season. One is an 18yo leg spinner that might hopefully be a part of the thunder setup either this year or next.

Crabby Skills · 20 Jun 2019

Rowsus said:

Hi Connoisseur,
I guess the simplest approach is the numbers:
Hore ---> Hurn currently costs $181,400
Goldy ---> Gawn currently costs $181,400

The 2nd part of the equation. Assuming all players involved play out the season, how many points are the upgrades worth?
This of course is very subjective. WC have an easy-ish Draw coming up, does this adversely affect Hurn?
Well, let's have a look! Here are WC's results, sorted by margin:
View attachment 9649

Hurn's 3 lowest scores this season, have come in WC's 3 biggest wins, and his 5 lowest scores (ave 97.8) have come in the games where WC win by 3 goals or more! I'd say that makes Hurn's/WC's Draw mighty important!
So, while it's a small sample size, there is a definite trend in hurn's scoring this season:
WC win 18+: 5/97.8
WC win 1-17: 3/137.3
WC lose (42-): 3/116
It appears he needs/want close games or losses to maximise his scoring. If WC get on a run, Hurn might go through a sub 100 period.
WC's Draw (Home in bold): Ess, Haw, Fre, Coll, Melb, Nth, Carl, Ade, Rich, Haw

That being the case, I'd be backing Gawn to outscore Goldy, by more than Hurn outscores Hore.

It's work like this that keeps me coming back to this thread.

Herbie66 · 20 Jun 2019

7/11 said:

Yes I remember you posting at the end of the season that you would like to be more involved with planning and helping and stuff , well done.

I know England will be in.South Africa for most of the Big Bash , we go to India for 3 one dayers in January and pretty sure the BPL is over lapping again , so be interesting to see what OS players committ , really need a DreRuss or someone like that.

Faf will be at the Scorchers , Rashid & Nabi are back again , no Bravo ?

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Connoisseur

Leadership Group

Juzzo

Courtesans

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Eagling

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Eagling

Herbie66

Connoisseur

Leadership Group

Fiasco

7/11

Crabby Skills

Herbie66