Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[maken7]

Hi Rowsus
I posted this in the trades thread however I would like to get your valued opinion.

Im a bit undecided on which is the best trades for this week.

FYI - I am just going for head to head, therefore the byes aren't too much of a concern for me.

Do I get rid of Hanley for Swallow/Bartel/Murphy/Hibberd?
And go Aish/JHunt -> Crouch ? (Want to leave Tyson until last and the rest have lower BE's)

Or get Crouch and upgrade Rohan to Fasolo?




My team as follows:

Def
Mitchell, Hanley, Simpson, Enright, McDonald, Langdon (Langford, Georgiou)

Mids
Ablett, Pendles, Cotchin, Beams, Polec, Tyson, Ellis, Dunstan (Aish, JHunt)

Ruck
Sandi, Mumford (Derickx, King)

Fwd
Pavlich, Dusty, Dangerfield, Mitchell, Higgins, Impey, (Rohan, JKH)



Thanks again Rowsus!

 

[Hairy]

jmack5, I've noticed you have posted the same question in 3 different threads on SCS. Please don't do this.

 

[Creeker]

A little advice required from the guru.
Rowsus, I no your view on trading in rookies that are not on the bubble and my obvious trades should be Michie to Crouch and Caddy to Pavlich. (have 85k up my sleeve).
My issue is that I just cannot afford another Round 8 bye player.
Current bye structure 11/9/10.
I'm thinking Michie to Robertson and Caddy to Pavlich.
Wondering if this is clever or stupid !
Fasolo and Lloyd also obvious selections but still share the round 8 bye.

Interested in your thoughts - thanks in advance.

 

[Rowsus]

Thank you so much for the detailed reply. I think you are right in that sometimes we need to milk the rookies a bit early when circumstances arise.

I like the Hunter to Lloyd trade. The only thing that concerns me is having him at F6 but he did have a good NAB performance - I just hope his JS is sound.

Regarding Crouch, despite the fact he has the round 8 bye, do you think it's worth offloading Cuningham to him? I must admit that I have always thought throwing one of the bye rounds was acceptable but I can now see that doing so could really cause your ranking to take a big hit. Perhaps I have just answered my question right there!!

Edit - tried to give you a rep but I have to spread the love first!

Bye structures can have lots of traps, and they are still 4 weeks away. If you are confident you can avoid a donut, without using a trade that appears mostly bad just to avoid that donut, then yes get him. When the byes hit, using a trade "just to avoid a donut" is not usually a great option. You may be saving 60 points, and damaging some future structure if you do it.

 

[Rowsus]

Another quick question! What are your thoughts on Macrae? The kid is a gun and I congratulate those that started with him. For around $110K I could trade Tyson to him. He is still cheap given his output and at worst could be a keeper at M8. Worth the "risk"?

I was with you all the way, until the end. I'm not sure I agree with the "at worst could be a keeper at M8" part. Ay worst he could heavily affected by Griffen getting back to form, and Cooney getting into late 2013 form, and Macrae falls back to 85-90. That's not what you want from M8. 105 is borderline acceptable for a season ending M8. I think time, opposition Coaches, and senior players form will catch up with him eventually. He is averaging 110 now, but I think he will do a great job to finish the season 105, and is more likely to finish lower than that. Being a Bulldogs supporter you have probably watched him closer than me. I think he represents a small slice of value at his current price, but I'm just not 100% convinced he will score at a genuine M8 level from here to the end of the season. I could easily be proven wrong though.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus,

Those were my original thoughts about Clurey and Ambrose- to wait till they can make some money.

But what about the byes?

I'll be stuffed if they're both out all 3 bye weeks. So do u think it is worth trading them to save a few donuts?

I don't think you should do corrective trades now, Rookie to Rookie, with the thought you might be saving a bye donut. You can't be sure if your new Rookie will still be there during the byes either. Even when the byes arrive, doing a trade to avoid a Rookie donut is not advisable. You are using a trade to avoid a 60 point donut, and your trades are worth more than 60 points.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I don't think you should do corrective trades now, Rookie to Rookie, with the thought you might be saving a bye donut. You can't be sure if your new Rookie will still be there during the byes either. Even when the byes arrive, doing a trade to avoid a Rookie donut is not advisable. You are using a trade to avoid a 60 point donut, and your trades are worth more than 60 points.

Hi Rowsus - I am curious to know the basis on which you determine how much a trade is worth in terms of points and $'s? There seems to be a bit of consensus around what they are worth, but I don't understand how this was derived.
Thanks

 

[Liberatore]

Rowsus.....

I have Naitanui and Hanley both in my team

regardless whether Naitanui gets up his BE is 158 having already dropped 80k this year.

should i get rid of both? Jaensch and Jacobs? or Mitchell and Mcintosh

Jaensch gonna be a keeper?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus
I posted this in the trades thread however I would like to get your valued opinion.

Im a bit undecided on which is the best trades for this week.

FYI - I am just going for head to head, therefore the byes aren't too much of a concern for me.

Do I get rid of Hanley for Swallow/Bartel/Murphy/Hibberd?
And go Aish/JHunt -> Crouch ? (Want to leave Tyson until last and the rest have lower BE's)

Or get Crouch and upgrade Rohan to Fasolo?

Thanks again Rowsus!

You've got a couple of tough line ball decisions there.
I think I'd probably not trust Hanley, and go to Hibberd. Even if Hanley comes back in a timely manner, there must be some question marks over him going into the rest of the season anyway.
I'm not convinced Fasolo is a good pick, and as their potentially plenty of bubble boys next week, I'd replace Fasolo with Lloyd in your equation. Hunt is providing you with good service, but you still need to generate cash to improve your team. It's a tough call, and no one can be confident they know the right answer from here, but I will just favour Hunt ---> Crouch.
Good luck

 

[_Slip_]

Hi Rowsus

Real quick question ... do you think Matthew Jaensch is this years Grant Birchall?

Cheers

_Slip_

 

[The Saltshaker]

Hey mate,

Quick question, better to down caddy to fasolo or upgrade to chappy - not sure if the extra trade is worth it? Or get as much early cash as possible? Would probs work out to $200k+ for the extra trade. Im in both camps any analysis would be great

 

[Rowsus]

A little advice required from the guru.
Rowsus, I no your view on trading in rookies that are not on the bubble and my obvious trades should be Michie to Crouch and Caddy to Pavlich. (have 85k up my sleeve).
My issue is that I just cannot afford another Round 8 bye player.
Current bye structure 11/9/10.
I'm thinking Michie to Robertson and Caddy to Pavlich.
Wondering if this is clever or stupid !
Fasolo and Lloyd also obvious selections but still share the round 8 bye.

Interested in your thoughts - thanks in advance.

Crouch isn't a must have, or not on what he has produced so far anyway. Definitely some Coaches would be best to forget him, and keep their round 8 bye structure safe. While Robertson is a risk, sometimes risks need to be taken. Given your structure, and the potential for more bubble boys next week, I don't think it is the worst set of trades you could do.
Good luck

 

[Liberatore]

Hi Rowsus

Real quick question ... do you think Matthew Jaensch is this years Grant Birchall?

Cheers

_Slip_

are we suppose to just ignore his 4 100+ games?

 

[The Saltshaker]

Crouch isn't a must have, or not on what he has produced so far anyway. Definitely some Coaches would be best to forget him, and keep their round 8 bye structure safe. While Robertson is a risk, sometimes risks need to be taken. Given your structure, and the potential for more bubble boys next week, I don't think it is the worst set of trades you could do.
Good luck

Really i thought he has been good. Scored well vs TOG in nab, 18d in 1/2 of footy. 23d last week (14hb though) but plenty of looseball gets, felt he was robbed a bit sc wise. Avg 32d in TAC cup and crows draw getting easier for a few. Playing on ball (rover)

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus - I am curious to know the basis on which you determine how much a trade is worth in terms of points and $'s? There seems to be a bit of consensus around what they are worth, but I don't understand how this was derived.
Thanks

Hi RB,
each circumstance needs to be weighed up on it's own merits. A trade that makes $80k mightn't look fantastic in isolation, but if it facilitates getting a Super Premium into your team earlier, it's ok. The value is of a trade in general is just arrived at by experience. A one up one down standard upgrade in round 8 might increase your weekly score by between 25 to 40 points/week. Let's assume 30 points/week, over 15 weeks gives you a 450 point improvement on your season, by using 2 trades, or 225/trade. It's generally put at around 200/trade at this stage of the season is what you are looking for. The best Rookies can make $300-350k, but that is few and far between, as you get down to the 5th and 6th best producing Rookies for each position, that can fall to $150-$180k. You want around $200k in general, but sometimes have to accept less.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

^^ Ok, I see. Thanks for that

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Real quick question ... do you think Matthew Jaensch is this years Grant Birchall?

Cheers

_Slip_

Hi _Slip_
I'm still not convinced he's the "real deal" and won't drop off as the season goes on.
Certainly his price puts him in the higher risk catagory now, and I won't be getting him. He's on the growing list of players that might prove me wrong this season.

 

[dyii]

Hey Rowsus, quick question about Tom Mitchell. Never seen him play but was wondering if its his role that's limiting his scoring, the weather, or his form? I'll most likely trade him out to Parker this week and seeing as they play similar roles (I think) has made me reconsider to Chappy maybe.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey mate,

Quick question, better to down caddy to fasolo or upgrade to chappy - not sure if the extra trade is worth it? Or get as much early cash as possible? Would probs work out to $200k+ for the extra trade. Im in both camps any analysis would be great

Hey Salty,
I'm not in the Fasolo camp, and think you'd be better to go to Lloyd a week early than get Fasolo. If you can upgrade Caddy, even better. As to Chappy, you need to decide how many games you'll think he will miss. If it is 3 or 4 he's "gettable", if it's more he's regrettable.

 

[Rowsus]

are we suppose to just ignore his 4 100+ games?

Nope, we don't ignore it, it is part of the "information at hand". We just don't assume it will continue.