There is a few months before the start of the season so I am happy to have him there at this stage. As I mentioned his selection is predicated to him securing that running/rebounding HB role for the Dogs. During the pre season their backline structure will become evident so I can make changes once I see them play
Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Johannisen and Docherty are my 2 Def value picks at the moment. I thought I had a sneaky pick in Johannisen, until Jordan posted this a week or so ago in the Great Pre-Season Info thread. It is nearly impossible to have a sneaky pick that goes undiscussed these days, I guess. 
Hi Rowsus,
I'd love to read your thoughts on Jeremy Howe this season. Looks to be on the rise, and super durable! Currently slotted in D4, but my worst fear is overpaying for a defender who is only 459k. Do you think he will improve this season? Is Lumumba going to be a problem for him?
Cheers mate!
I'd love to read your thoughts on Jeremy Howe this season. Looks to be on the rise, and super durable! Currently slotted in D4, but my worst fear is overpaying for a defender who is only 459k. Do you think he will improve this season? Is Lumumba going to be a problem for him?
Cheers mate!
Cheers Rowsus.
It's interesting reading. The stats certainly point away from picking a breakout the year after if they go 20+ up. The interesting thing I find with Gray is that his 2013 average of about 82ish wasn't a true reflection of him as a fantasy footballer.
He had 4 sub/illness effected games coming off that ACL. Taking those numbers out his average was actually 95. Does a 15 point spike rather than 20ppg one change things a little considering he was tracking that way pre-ACL?
ACLs seem to suck a good two years out of someones scoring potential so we may still see him averaging 105+.
Its also interesting to note that he started the year quietly compared to how he tracked throughout.
Keep up the good work mate its much appreciated.
It's interesting reading. The stats certainly point away from picking a breakout the year after if they go 20+ up. The interesting thing I find with Gray is that his 2013 average of about 82ish wasn't a true reflection of him as a fantasy footballer.
He had 4 sub/illness effected games coming off that ACL. Taking those numbers out his average was actually 95. Does a 15 point spike rather than 20ppg one change things a little considering he was tracking that way pre-ACL?
ACLs seem to suck a good two years out of someones scoring potential so we may still see him averaging 105+.
Its also interesting to note that he started the year quietly compared to how he tracked throughout.
Keep up the good work mate its much appreciated.
$350kish range is a fantasy graveyard in most cases. I usually let those types go and then make them an upgrade target if they get off to a flyer. Especially if you are relying on them being the team's quarterback which is reserved only for certain very good players.
I know you can't generalise these decisions and have to assess each player on his merits but that price range alone gives me shivers unless they are an injury discounted former premium.
I know you can't generalise these decisions and have to assess each player on his merits but that price range alone gives me shivers unless they are an injury discounted former premium.
Johannisen and Docherty are my 2 Def value picks at the moment. I thought I had a sneaky pick in Johannisen, until Jordan posted this a week or so ago in the Great Pre-Season Info thread. It is nearly impossible to have a sneaky pick that goes undiscussed these days, I guess.
Hi Brett,
I think he is a freak. If he hadn't broken his leg, who knows what we'd we be saying about him?
Having said that, he is a mature age recruit, and I believe they establish their SC ESP (expected scoring pattern) a lot quicker than younger players. Hence one of the reasons why I believe Zorko will never be much better than 97-103, but that's besides the point. Barlow took a good season and a half to get over that broken leg, and has shown he is a 108-112 player, I have no reason to believe he won't score in that area again. For someone with his scoring record, it is quite surprising he is nearly always a POD selection.
I think he is a freak. If he hadn't broken his leg, who knows what we'd we be saying about him?
Having said that, he is a mature age recruit, and I believe they establish their SC ESP (expected scoring pattern) a lot quicker than younger players. Hence one of the reasons why I believe Zorko will never be much better than 97-103, but that's besides the point. Barlow took a good season and a half to get over that broken leg, and has shown he is a 108-112 player, I have no reason to believe he won't score in that area again. For someone with his scoring record, it is quite surprising he is nearly always a POD selection.
Danger has a history of starting slowish, and has contract talks and media speculation to deal with. I will be starting without him, even though he does look temptingly underpriced. I have no doubt he can be a 110+ player, but would prefer to see how things are panning out for him before I bring him into my team.
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Hi Rowsus,
I'd love to read your thoughts on Jeremy Howe this season. Looks to be on the rise, and super durable! Currently slotted in D4, but my worst fear is overpaying for a defender who is only 459k. Do you think he will improve this season? Is Lumumba going to be a problem for him?
Cheers mate!
I'd love to read your thoughts on Jeremy Howe this season. Looks to be on the rise, and super durable! Currently slotted in D4, but my worst fear is overpaying for a defender who is only 459k. Do you think he will improve this season? Is Lumumba going to be a problem for him?
Cheers mate!
he's an interesting one. I can't see Lumumba having much affect on him, as they are different types of players, probably earmarked for completely different roles. Howe averaged 93.4 after round 6 last season, and there's no reason he can't maintain something in that level again in 2015. I'd be surprised if he can push up to 100, but he could be a good POD D5/6.
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Hi Rowsus - I would actually be interested to know your thought re Lumumbas prospects for this year. I think there is a reasonable change that he will spend a bit of time through the midfield to help bolster the Dee's Mids. Do you think this is likely and if so, do you think he could push up towards a 90 average? Thanks.
Always happy to answer interesting questions, sven_inc.
You won't be pleased with what I have to tell you here.
We know from post #2839, that there have been 23 ocassions where a player has done all 3 of:
Jumped their average from one season to the next by 20+/game
Had their new average reach 110+
Played a subsequent season.
Swan and Ablett managed to increase their average in the subsequent season, 7 players dropped by between 2.6 and 9.9 per season, and the other 14 dropped by between 10.4 and 48.5. 21 out of 23 players dropped their average in the subsequent season, and the average for all 23 players was -14.6/game.
If we look at the players that raised their average by between 15 and 20, and reached 110+, there are another 15 players to look at. Two of those 15 achieved it in 2014, Fyfe and Ward. That leaves us 13 players to add to the analysis.
Ablett, who achieved a 20+ jump in 2007 to 114.2, then jumped 15+ to 132.2 in 2008 then went +7.9 in 2009.
The other 12 fell by between 0.05 and 42.1,
The average of all 13 players is a reassuring (to this statistician!) -14.8!
Clumping the 2 sets of players together, we get:
36 players have jumped their season average, from one year to the next, by 15+/game, and recorded an average of 110+/game.
On three occassions the player has recorded an increase in average the following season: Ablett twice, Swan once.
The other 33 players have all dropped in average the next season by between 0.05 and 58.5/game.
The average of all 36 players is -14.69
The average of the 33 players that dropped in average is -16.91
There is no doubt statistical patterns like this will be broken, as more seasons are recorded, but a 33 out 36 drop, by an average of 17/game is pretty hard to confidently predict against!
You won't be pleased with what I have to tell you here.
We know from post #2839, that there have been 23 ocassions where a player has done all 3 of:
Jumped their average from one season to the next by 20+/game
Had their new average reach 110+
Played a subsequent season.
Swan and Ablett managed to increase their average in the subsequent season, 7 players dropped by between 2.6 and 9.9 per season, and the other 14 dropped by between 10.4 and 48.5. 21 out of 23 players dropped their average in the subsequent season, and the average for all 23 players was -14.6/game.
If we look at the players that raised their average by between 15 and 20, and reached 110+, there are another 15 players to look at. Two of those 15 achieved it in 2014, Fyfe and Ward. That leaves us 13 players to add to the analysis.
Ablett, who achieved a 20+ jump in 2007 to 114.2, then jumped 15+ to 132.2 in 2008 then went +7.9 in 2009.
The other 12 fell by between 0.05 and 42.1,
The average of all 13 players is a reassuring (to this statistician!
) -14.8!Clumping the 2 sets of players together, we get:
36 players have jumped their season average, from one year to the next, by 15+/game, and recorded an average of 110+/game.
On three occassions the player has recorded an increase in average the following season: Ablett twice, Swan once.
The other 33 players have all dropped in average the next season by between 0.05 and 58.5/game.
The average of all 36 players is -14.69
The average of the 33 players that dropped in average is -16.91
There is no doubt statistical patterns like this will be broken, as more seasons are recorded, but a 33 out 36 drop, by an average of 17/game is pretty hard to confidently predict against!
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It's a very good point. The percentage of players in the $325-$375k range that go on to be keepers is very low. Well under 10%, and probably closer to 1%. Even removing older players, and players with established ESP's (expected scoring pattern) doesn't raise the quantity to a percentage we could be confident with.
Hi Courtesans,
I think a R/F link, or a commitment to trade at the first sign of trouble is nearly a must. At the moment I'm leaning to Ryder. TBC would need to show me something really positive in the NAB for me to jump on to him. His injury history, and poor SC record make him a poor choice right now. If NicNat blows a gasket in the pre-season, it will be Lycett. I don't see it as a temorary pick, and would prefer to take someone I'm happy to keep through the season, as it is more likely carnage to Rucks will happen later in the season, than earlier. Those taking TBC hoping for a price rise and upgrade may do ok, but who do they upgrade to to maintain Ruck cover?
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I think a R/F link, or a commitment to trade at the first sign of trouble is nearly a must. At the moment I'm leaning to Ryder. TBC would need to show me something really positive in the NAB for me to jump on to him. His injury history, and poor SC record make him a poor choice right now. If NicNat blows a gasket in the pre-season, it will be Lycett. I don't see it as a temorary pick, and would prefer to take someone I'm happy to keep through the season, as it is more likely carnage to Rucks will happen later in the season, than earlier. Those taking TBC hoping for a price rise and upgrade may do ok, but who do they upgrade to to maintain Ruck cover?
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Hi RB,
my gut feel is, that Lumumba is Lumumba. Melbourne have some ok Mids, and some young Mids they want to develop. I really think Lumumba will play a similar role at Melbourne, that he played at Collingwood, and will only get the occassional run through the Midfield. No one honestly believes he is a Mid that was just denied opportunity at Collingwood, so I can't see Melbourne trying to turn him into one. He had his opportunities at Collingwood to be a SC relevant Def. He certainly had the run, and rebounded enough, but just didn't accumulate the points. I can't see him suddenly becoming a different player at Melbourne. Maybe mid to high 80's like 2013.
my gut feel is, that Lumumba is Lumumba. Melbourne have some ok Mids, and some young Mids they want to develop. I really think Lumumba will play a similar role at Melbourne, that he played at Collingwood, and will only get the occassional run through the Midfield. No one honestly believes he is a Mid that was just denied opportunity at Collingwood, so I can't see Melbourne trying to turn him into one. He had his opportunities at Collingwood to be a SC relevant Def. He certainly had the run, and rebounded enough, but just didn't accumulate the points. I can't see him suddenly becoming a different player at Melbourne. Maybe mid to high 80's like 2013.
g'day Rowsus
thanks for more statistic based sense. I am intrigued by your comment "At this stage I will be having all 3 of Newnes, Docherty and JJ, but not Harwood. I had Broady in my team right up until the lockout last season, then axed him, and wouldn't touch Yarran or Atley if you paid me." The last bit I get, but I am puzzled by the no Harwood? Budget constraints perhaps but that is a wild guess. Or balance for the byes - although I think that is more a concern with midfielders? I would be intrigued to know your reasoning - if you would be so kind.
thanks for more statistic based sense. I am intrigued by your comment "At this stage I will be having all 3 of Newnes, Docherty and JJ, but not Harwood. I had Broady in my team right up until the lockout last season, then axed him, and wouldn't touch Yarran or Atley if you paid me." The last bit I get, but I am puzzled by the no Harwood? Budget constraints perhaps but that is a wild guess. Or balance for the byes - although I think that is more a concern with midfielders? I would be intrigued to know your reasoning - if you would be so kind.
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Word from my sources (they are solid) are that he will play HBF and on the wing. They will also try to utilise his run and carry by bringing him up the ground for stoppages with the aim of him being a release player off the back of the pack (as they will with Toumpus, Salem and Watts).
As a pies man, I've seen Harry run into trouble more times than not, and I can't see him scoring much more in a side that will most likely lose more games than the pies did in 2014. Could get some cheap disposals though while Melbourne continue the game plan transition that they are going through.
As a pies man, I've seen Harry run into trouble more times than not, and I can't see him scoring much more in a side that will most likely lose more games than the pies did in 2014. Could get some cheap disposals though while Melbourne continue the game plan transition that they are going through.
I think that comes with a caveat this year, in that there's a shortage of reliable DEF premiums. In previous years, when we've had the likes of the bankable Goddard, Deledio, Hodge, Malceski, Mitchell, Gibbs etc, there's been no need to divert from the Guns and Rookies strategy. This year, with many of the Def premiums losing their defender status, and the top echelon of the remaining defenders likely to drop in price due to age/position/team factors, the mid-priced player, particularly in the 325-400k range has become more prevalent. So while historically those awkwardly priced players have little utility, I think this year more than any other, they are crucial selections.
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