Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I have one more player to pick (until my team changes again) but im not sure which way to go. The ones I am deciding between are:

Adams, Geary, Sheed, Goodes and Young.

Adams and Geary were the only two mid pricers ive had since before the nab games but they all have their pros and cons.

The price doesnt matter as the rest of my team is set so no other upgrades will be made. Also it wont ruin the rookies as which ever way I go the rookie I pick will be on the pine.

Any help you can give on how best to decide would be great.

Thanks!

 

[BomberSam]

Hey Rowsus,

Love your work! I have decided not to start GAJ and have a plan to acquire him cheaper, and have identified alternatives. I need your advice.
So here's the plan... my team:

DEF: Shaw, Newnes, Lumumba, Goodes, Dalgleish, Oxley (McIntosh, Saad)

MID: Pendles, Fyfe, Selwood, Parker, Dangerfield, Griffen, Cripps, Ellis-Yolmen (Heeney, Miller, Steele)

RUCK: Maric, Naitanui (Read)

FWD: Gray, Bartel, Mitchell, Salem, Clark, Lamb (Hogan, Lambert)

Cash left: $167,200

Jack Steele and Tom Mitchell are the key parts to my plan. Titch will be the stepping stone to GAJ, and Steele will be the link between the midfield and the forward line. If he is not selected, there are others, such as Lambert. When (if) GAJ drops in price, I will trade Titch (who has hopefully risen in price significantly) out. I anticipate I will need 80-100k in the kitty to supplement Titch in the trade, leaving me with about 60k now to play with.

Is this plan too optimistic? Do you like it? Or would you recommend I just go with a standard stepping stone midfielder such as Judd, Lachie Neale or Jack Steven, and sacrifice my 6th premium mid?

Thanks so much,
BomberSam.

 

[Bomber18]

Hi Rowsus, love your work.

Just had a thought about Goldstein and Swallow.
Was wondering whether Swallow's return might have had anything to do with Goldstein's scoring boost in the second half of 2014.
Is there any correlation in your opinion? Or is it just more a matter of higher scores in wins v losses?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Another player im considering that i havnt seen in any teams yet is Shaun Burgoyne.
What are your thoughts? with frawley in and gibbo running off half back doing as he pleases dropping in filling holes ext, will this give SB a free run all over the ground?
Think there will be alot of good scores come from a few of the hawk defenders this year.
Also think they are going to be tough to score against this year a back six of
Gibson,Lake,Frawley,Suckling,Birchall,Hodge good luck beating these guys i think also throw in spangher,stratton,schoenmakers,durrea tough tough team to crack and whitex to return to

Thanks BTJ

Hi Btj,
to be honest, Hawthorn players on the whole scare me a little, as Clarkson throws them around here and there, and in this role and that. Fantastic for the teams Premiership aspirations, hair pulling stuff for SC Coaches. We just struggle to find consistency in their players. That being said, the nature of the beast with Defs is inconsistency anyway, so if you were going to take a Hawks player, it makes sense that it is a Def. Gibson or Burgoyne look to be the only ones that have SC relevance (I exclude Hodge, as he gets managed and red vested every season), but even their inconsistency scares me. Burgoyne has had 4 of his last 6 seasons at 85 or lower, and is priced at $506k, Gibson is just is even scarier. 7 of his last 9 seasons have been below 80! He's priced at $497k. If I was going to punt on one of them, it would probably be Burgoyne, due to his higher game count, better recent history, and he has a Midfield history. I'm sure both will post good scores, but I'm not sure they will crack 90 for the season. If I am going to spend $500k on a Def, I want a bit more reliability and consistency. Fortunately, I'm not spending $500k on any Defs, so I don't have to consider either!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Just another few questions and I promise I will leave you alone....

Hey Slammer,
ask as many questions as you like.

1. Have been looking at Leunberger as R2 (Have Lycett also as F4 as cover)
Do you think Leunberger can get back to his best even with Martin? I am just not convinced with Nic Nat. I reckon Lycett may steal some of his points.

I'm far from convinced with NN too. Yes he played 20 games while injured last season, but that doesn't preclude him from being managed this season, to prevent similar problems in the future. I also said I wouldn't take him in my side, unless I could see he was back to his bustling, good work below the knees, best. Obviously we haven't seen much of him, so rather than risk him, I'm going without him. He's well priced, if you believe he can be anything like his 2012 self, but the flip-side of that coin is, he's now played 108 games, in 6 seasons, for one season over 96. He needs to show me more, before I jump on his wagon again.
I'm a bit worried about Leuey, too. He's not good enough up forward to be kicking 2 goals each week, and Martin plays a better around the ground type game than Leuey. That leaves Leuey to "prosper" on his tapwork. He's decent at it, but Martin will take his share of that, too. That leaves me thinking Leuey will make some dollars, but using the $100k Rule for Stepping Stones, he has to average 92 to do that, and I'm just not convinced he can, with Martin in the team. I know he scored 96 in Rnd 23 with Martin in the team, but that was against Geelong, and they were one of the easier teams for Rucks to score against last season.

2. The next question lies with Rocky? I don't see him in many teams and I have chosen to bypass Ablett due to his injury affected pre-season.
I currently have Rocky in my team as I think he can still pump out some big scores. I think he will be more difficult to get via trades even if his drops a little.

I'm actually not sure what the question is here. I'm starting Rocky*, despite the question marks on his price. He's the highest scoring SC player in his first 100 games, of any player to debut 2005 or later (the start of SC) to play 100 games or more. Surely that gives him some cred? At 100 games he has outscored Pendlebury, Selwood, everyone in their first 100 SC games. The Ablett's, Swan's etc don't count, as they debuted before 2005, and we can't guess what they might have scored in their early years. We can't be sure, even if his average falls to 115-120, that he won't still bang out those amazing 150+ Captain scores we want.
*He could become Ablett, I will start one, but not both. Right now it's Rocky.

3. Goodes - Do you still have him in your team? Has proven in the past he can pump out pretty good scores. Is he worth it? My concern is his JS.

Yes, for all the reasons posted at post #3558 on page 178. (After this question was posted.)

4. J.Selwood. Currently don't have in in my team. Can go big with his contested possession footy but do you think the Cats will struggle this season which could affect his output. Reason being I currently have Pendles, Fyfe and Kennedy which I think doesn't help with bye rounds.

No dramas if you don't get to comment..I understand.

Cheers

We can't fit them all in to start with, I guess. I actually think Scott is playing a smart game plan this year. Get more out of your experienced Mids, instead of forcing them out of the Midfield, and filling it with kids. Playing outstanding career Mids like Bartel in their right position might actually pay off, who knew?! I actually don't think Geelong will slide too much at all. The "new" approach to the Midfield, coupled with Clark helping Hawkins will negate any slide, imo.
As to Selwood, his scores in losses last season, in the order they occured, were: 82, 140, 98, 103, 90 - then 151 and 148 in losing finals games. I don't fear taking him, even if Geelong do slide a little.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Im up to the final stages of my team selection, with 11 out of my 15 keepers locked in. I've enough cap to choose from the following options:
Beams/Sloane+a forward rookie
Gray/Bartel+ a midfield rookie
Birchall+Crisps
Which option should I go with?
Also Wines vs Griffen?
thanks

Hey Pro,
with your first part, I'd let the Rookie decide the problem. Choose the Rookie you are most confident in, then choose the Prem. Out of Sloan and Beams, I would take Sloane. I think he will play more games than Beams, and therefore he can average a little less, and still be more effective than Beams. If it comes down to Gray or Bartel, I think they'll be the top 2 Fwds for the season, but Grat trunps Bartel.
I'm not overly keen on either of Birchall or Smith, but if I had to take one, I'd take Smith, because his pre-season was better,
Wines and Griffen I think are similar to Beams and Sloane. I can see Griffen averaging more, but Wines scoring more points for the season.
I hope that helps. Some tough decisions there.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

I have one more player to pick (until my team changes again) but im not sure which way to go. The ones I am deciding between are:

Adams, Geary, Sheed, Goodes and Young.

Adams and Geary were the only two mid pricers ive had since before the nab games but they all have their pros and cons.

The price doesnt matter as the rest of my team is set so no other upgrades will be made. Also it wont ruin the rookies as which ever way I go the rookie I pick will be on the pine.

Any help you can give on how best to decide would be great.

Thanks!

Hey Mike,
even though the Rookie you choose will be seated on your pine, it is probably best to get that selection done first, in an attempt to save a potential corrective trade. Once you have decided on the Rookie, it narrows your choices down a bit. If you really can't decide on the Rookie, and you want this choice to narrow your Rookie pick down, I guess that's a different story. It's a wide price range you are shopping in. $378k to $214k, and it force me to say, take Sheed, as it gives you $160k for use elsewhere.
I hope that helps.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Love your work! I have decided not to start GAJ and have a plan to acquire him cheaper, and have identified alternatives. I need your advice.
So here's the plan... my team:

DEF: Shaw, Newnes, Lumumba, Goodes, Dalgleish, Oxley (McIntosh, Saad)

MID: Pendles, Fyfe, Selwood, Parker, Dangerfield, Griffen, Cripps, Ellis-Yolmen (Heeney, Miller, Steele)

RUCK: Maric, Naitanui (Read)

FWD: Gray, Bartel, Mitchell, Salem, Clark, Lamb (Hogan, Lambert)

Cash left: $167,200

Jack Steele and Tom Mitchell are the key parts to my plan. Titch will be the stepping stone to GAJ, and Steele will be the link between the midfield and the forward line. If he is not selected, there are others, such as Lambert. When (if) GAJ drops in price, I will trade Titch (who has hopefully risen in price significantly) out. I anticipate I will need 80-100k in the kitty to supplement Titch in the trade, leaving me with about 60k now to play with.

Is this plan too optimistic? Do you like it? Or would you recommend I just go with a standard stepping stone midfielder such as Judd, Lachie Neale or Jack Steven, and sacrifice my 6th premium mid?

Thanks so much,
BomberSam.

Hey BS,
sorry to be blunt, but way WAY WAY too optimistic!

Let's look at it from both sides. Firstly from the Mitchell side.
You say you expect him to increase significantly in price, and he is currently $405,600. Let's assume you think $100k is a significant improvement. Why are you trading out a Fwd that is averaging 100/game?! It will take him to about Rnd 9 to reach $485k, if he averages 100/game. The last $15k will be a slow crawl. Obviously that can change if he busts out a big score, and he can get there quicker, but keep in mind, if he is still averaging 100, there will be an accompanying lower score somewhere, too. That low score can rob your profit quickly, too. Unless you think you have a good reason, that he will average significantly less in the second half of the season, than the first, it is a crazy trade to trade him out.

Let's look at the other side of the coin. You say you want to get Ablett for Mitchell plus $100k. Ablett needs to average 120 to fall to $600k by Round 12. So even if you are still set on sacrificing a 100/game Fwd and $100k to get Ablett, you need to hope Ablett is "disappointing", and wait for Round 13 to get him. If you think Mitchell will "only" average 95, and make about $70k by your trade, then Ablett needs to drop to $575k. He needs to be averaging as low as 115 to get there for your Round 13 trade.

So your optimism is misguided, in that, either Mitchell becomes too good to trade out, Ablett performs too poorly, or you just can't achieve your plan. If however you believe Mitchell will go ballistic early, reach a ridiculous price he can't possibly continue to hold, and trading him out is the equivalent of the Dimma Cloke/SJ trade, then more power to you. If you do believe that, I'd love to read your reasoning!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, love your work.

Just had a thought about Goldstein and Swallow.
Was wondering whether Swallow's return might have had anything to do with Goldstein's scoring boost in the second half of 2014.
Is there any correlation in your opinion? Or is it just more a matter of higher scores in wins v losses?

Hi B18, thanks for that.
I can't really see how Swallow could be the difference between Goldy averaging 86 in his first 10 games, and 126 in his last 11. I wouldn't think there was anything more than coincidence.
In those first 10 games he averaged 85 in wins, and 88 in losses, so I wouldn't read too much into that, either.

 

[Juzzo]

Waddup Row,

I would like to know your thoughts on these defenders - Bugg, Broadbent and M Johnson.

Thanks pal.

 

[Kafka]

Hi Rowsus,

Thank you for the detailed and succinct response!

I may still risk Jong, as he think he may surprise, but still 50/50 on him.

I think many on here, including myself, are enjoying playing the game "who is in Rowsus's team'. It's like another game within the supercoach game.
You have let some hints go and my intrigue now is with your backline as i feel you have statistically figured out 2 or 3 options that will be very different to who everyone else has. I'm guessing you have 3 players between the 400-500 range, 1 player in the 300 to 400 range and 2 players in the 200-300 range starting on the ground with 2 rookie subs. I think we all have by now realised that this is the line that will be the most important in this years comp as it is the line that has so few obvious choices and many many ways to get it wrong, especially with reknowned injury prone and players to go missing performing well in the NAB cup.
For those mid pricers that seem to have a good upside I'm looking at Bewick (in a better team and without hanley will most likely get more of the ball), Kolodjashnij (due to his primary role being wing, but can go lock-down sometimes which worries me) and a couple from Richmond including Morris (who will be playing forward), and Vlastuin, who will be playing through the mids and had the second year hangover but should bounce back this year.
Your thoughts would be appreciated!
Thanks again for your great work.
Mark

 

[BomberSam]

Hey BS,
sorry to be blunt, but way WAY WAY too optimistic!

Let's look at it from both sides. Firstly from the Mitchell side.
You say you expect him to increase significantly in price, and he is currently $405,600. Let's assume you think $100k is a significant improvement. Why are you trading out a Fwd that is averaging 100/game?! It will take him to about Rnd 9 to reach $485k, if he averages 100/game. The last $15k will be a slow crawl. Obviously that can change if he busts out a big score, and he can get there quicker, but keep in mind, if he is still averaging 100, there will be an accompanying lower score somewhere, too. That low score can rob your profit quickly, too. Unless you think you have a good reason, that he will average significantly less in the second half of the season, than the first, it is a crazy trade to trade him out.

Let's look at the other side of the coin. You say you want to get Ablett for Mitchell plus $100k. Ablett needs to average 120 to fall to $600k by Round 12. So even if you are still set on sacrificing a 100/game Fwd and $100k to get Ablett, you need to hope Ablett is "disappointing", and wait for Round 13 to get him. If you think Mitchell will "only" average 95, and make about $70k by your trade, then Ablett needs to drop to $575k. He needs to be averaging as low as 115 to get there for your Round 13 trade.

So your optimism is misguided, in that, either Mitchell becomes too good to trade out, Ablett performs too poorly, or you just can't achieve your plan. If however you believe Mitchell will go ballistic early, reach a ridiculous price he can't possibly continue to hold, and trading him out is the equivalent of the Dimma Cloke/SJ trade, then more power to you. If you do believe that, I'd love to read your reasoning!

Gosh, shows how little understanding I have about the pricing system. Thanks so much for your response Rowsus! It all makes so much sense now. I will probably start a Judd, Lachie Neale or Jack Steven type now as my stepping stone to Ablett. I don't believe any of them will be keepers by the end of the season, but I do think they will score solidly and rise in price. Probably the quickest, safest (and least optimistic) way to the great man. In your opinion, which one should I choose? Or is there someone else in that 450-500k (and thereabouts) price bracket that you think would be a better pick? Perhaps Andrew Swallow is an option?

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Hey Slammer,
ask as many questions as you like.

We can't fit them all in to start with, I guess. I actually think Scott is playing a smart game plan this year. Get more out of your experienced Mids, instead of forcing them out of the Midfield, and filling it with kids. Playing outstanding career Mids like Bartel in their right position might actually pay off, who knew?! I actually don't think Geelong will slide too much at all. The "new" approach to the Midfield, coupled with Clark helping Hawkins will negate any slide, imo.
As to Selwood, his scores in losses last season, in the order they occured, were: 82, 140, 98, 103, 90 - then 151 and 148 in losing finals games. I don't fear taking him, even if Geelong do slide a little.

AFL prospectus said Selwood averaged 92 from a hard tag last year. Do you see this being an issue especially with issues with Stevie J's durability? As good as Bartel is I can't see him taking a tag. Would love to hear your thoughts.

 

[bianchije]

on topic rowsus- who do you see dropping more value in the opening rounds; selwood or gray?

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
ask as many questions as you like.



I'm far from convinced with NN too. Yes he played 20 games while injured last season, but that doesn't preclude him from being managed this season, to prevent similar problems in the future. I also said I wouldn't take him in my side, unless I could see he was back to his bustling, good work below the knees, best. Obviously we haven't seen much of him, so rather than risk him, I'm going without him. He's well priced, if you believe he can be anything like his 2012 self, but the flip-side of that coin is, he's now played 108 games, in 6 seasons, for one season over 96. He needs to show me more, before I jump on his wagon again.
I'm a bit worried about Leuey, too. He's not good enough up forward to be kicking 2 goals each week, and Martin plays a better around the ground type game than Leuey. That leaves Leuey to "prosper" on his tapwork. He's decent at it, but Martin will take his share of that, too. That leaves me thinking Leuey will make some dollars, but using the $100k Rule for Stepping Stones, he has to average 92 to do that, and I'm just not convinced he can, with Martin in the team. I know he scored 96 in Rnd 23 with Martin in the team, but that was against Geelong, and they were one of the easier teams for Rucks to score against last season.



I'm actually not sure what the question is here. I'm starting Rocky*, despite the question marks on his price. He's the highest scoring SC player in his first 100 games, of any player to debut 2005 or later (the start of SC) to play 100 games or more. Surely that gives him some cred? At 100 games he has outscored Pendlebury, Selwood, everyone in their first 100 SC games. The Ablett's, Swan's etc don't count, as they debuted before 2005, and we can't guess what they might have scored in their early years. We can't be sure, even if his average falls to 115-120, that he won't still bang out those amazing 150+ Captain scores we want.
*He could become Ablett, I will start one, but not both. Right now it's Rocky.



Yes, for all the reasons posted at post #3558 on page 178. (After this question was posted.)



We can't fit them all in to start with, I guess. I actually think Scott is playing a smart game plan this year. Get more out of your experienced Mids, instead of forcing them out of the Midfield, and filling it with kids. Playing outstanding career Mids like Bartel in their right position might actually pay off, who knew?! I actually don't think Geelong will slide too much at all. The "new" approach to the Midfield, coupled with Clark helping Hawkins will negate any slide, imo.
As to Selwood, his scores in losses last season, in the order they occured, were: 82, 140, 98, 103, 90 - then 151 and 148 in losing finals games. I don't fear taking him, even if Geelong do slide a little.

Thanks mate
I guess in regards to Leunberger, I am just looking for that cheaper R2 to free up some cash. Might just play Lycett as my R2 with no back up.

 

[_Slip_]

Hi Rowsus

I promise this will be my last question pre-season

I am playing two set and forget ruckman (x fingers) and a F/R at R3 (currently my choice is Read), but after analyzing the first 10 rounds (please see below) I am seriously considering Frampton as rounds 6-8 with Read give me no loophole!!!

I think I am better off targeting a genuine ruckman upgrade midseason at R3 as a backup and ignoring the R/F combo, as only Lycett and potentially Bellchambers or Lycett jump out at me as options at R3.

Whats your thoughts?

 

[Rowsus]

Waddup Row,

I would like to know your thoughts on these defenders - Bugg, Broadbent and M Johnson.

Thanks pal.

'sup Juzzo,
Bugg was identified about a month before the NAB Cup, when Cameron was asked "Who should we keep an eye out for as big improvers this year?". That made me watch him closely in the NAB, and in 2 of the 3 games he was playing H/B-Wing, and in the other he played his more traditional Def role. I equate him to KK, but he's that bit cheaper, and has the advantage of being in the system a bit longer. That's why he is sitting at D5 in my team right now!
Broady was in my team right up until the death last season, then dropped out. I can see him potentially being around, or just outside the top 8-10 Defs this season. No certainty to achieve that, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did.
MJ is sitting in my team at D2. Lyon loves him, he reads the play well, takes plenty of intercept marks, which are SC Gold!

Happy to help, buddy.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Thank you for the detailed and succinct response!

I may still risk Jong, as he think he may surprise, but still 50/50 on him.

I think many on here, including myself, are enjoying playing the game "who is in Rowsus's team'. It's like another game within the supercoach game.
You have let some hints go and my intrigue now is with your backline as i feel you have statistically figured out 2 or 3 options that will be very different to who everyone else has. I'm guessing you have 3 players between the 400-500 range, 1 player in the 300 to 400 range and 2 players in the 200-300 range starting on the ground with 2 rookie subs. I think we all have by now realised that this is the line that will be the most important in this years comp as it is the line that has so few obvious choices and many many ways to get it wrong, especially with reknowned injury prone and players to go missing performing well in the NAB cup.
For those mid pricers that seem to have a good upside I'm looking at Bewick (in a better team and without hanley will most likely get more of the ball), Kolodjashnij (due to his primary role being wing, but can go lock-down sometimes which worries me) and a couple from Richmond including Morris (who will be playing forward), and Vlastuin, who will be playing through the mids and had the second year hangover but should bounce back this year.
Your thoughts would be appreciated!
Thanks again for your great work.
Mark

Hi Kafka,
happy to help.
Well, I've just given away Bugg as my D5, so I guess that reveals my "hardest to find" Def. I have 4 in the $400-$500k bracket including MJ at D2, then Bugg and Goodes at D5/6, and 2 Rookies on the bench.
Bewick probably doesn't benefit too much from Hanley being out, as 3 or 4 have come in, that will keep Bewick playing a more negating role, than a SC friendly creative role. Most think Rich will fill the type of running off the HBF role that Hanley did so well.
KK was in my team before Bugg lived up to Cameron's word that we should keep an eye on him. Their roles look nearly identical, Wing some games, H/B Def in others. Bugg has the advantage of a couple of extra pre-seasons under his belt, and a cheaper price.
Morris is 185cm, but when he is in the Fwd line it is more like the small Fwd role he plays, and when he is down back he is playing a negating role. Neither role tickles my fancy as far as SC goes Vlastuin is interesting. He may need an injury to a team mate to get some positive on-ball time, but that's not beyond the realms of possibility. He's a chance to lift in his 3rd season, and I'd much rather risk him, than Morris.

 

[Rowsus]

Gosh, shows how little understanding I have about the pricing system. Thanks so much for your response Rowsus! It all makes so much sense now. I will probably start a Judd, Lachie Neale or Jack Steven type now as my stepping stone to Ablett. I don't believe any of them will be keepers by the end of the season, but I do think they will score solidly and rise in price. Probably the quickest, safest (and least optimistic) way to the great man. In your opinion, which one should I choose? Or is there someone else in that 450-500k (and thereabouts) price bracket that you think would be a better pick? Perhaps Andrew Swallow is an option?

The pricing can be tricky to wrap your head around, until you get used to it. I like Swallow as chance to fill a cheap M8, but he's probably not the one I'd pick for the role you want to use him for. I would use Steven. He's got a great early draw, and when you are taking a risk like this, the cheaper the player you use, as long as you aren't sacrificing quality too much, the better. Judd looks like he is running better than ever, but that can quickly change, plus he still might get nursed now and then, just to get him through the season. Steven has a much better draw than Neale, that's why if I was looking for a sacrificial lamb for Gaz, it would probably be him.

 

[Rowsus]

AFL prospectus said Selwood averaged 92 from a hard tag last year. Do you see this being an issue especially with issues with Stevie J's durability? As good as Bartel is I can't see him taking a tag. Would love to hear your thoughts.

I've never seen a prospectus, but some of the numbers quoted in it concern me. Are they talking SC scores, or are they talking some sort of rating system? When they released the figures about how the changes in Ruck scoring would affect last years Rucks numbers, the numbers they quoted didn't resemble SC scores at all! Either way, I'm not too concerned about it. He's been around a long time now, and he's had plenty of tags over the years, and still averages 115+ consistently.

on topic rowsus- who do you see dropping more value in the opening rounds; selwood or gray?

I'm hoping they both go up in price!
But seriously, I would suggest it is more likely Selwood would drop more than Gray.