Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Essendon
Hey Rowsus, how are you doing?
I was tossing up between 2 trade options and I was wondering whether you could weigh in, please?

1: Trade out Vandenberg & Lonie, move McKenzie to the mids, move T. Mitch forward and bring in Rockliff and Lever. Would leave me with $44,300.
2: Trade out Vandenberg and Hogan, move McKenzie to the mids, move T. Mitch forward and bring in Parker and Lever. Leaves me with $34,300.

I had planned to get Rocky this week but he hasn't yet posted one of those typical 'Rockliff' scores and Parker seems under-priced at 516K. I am especially intrigued by Parker considering he averaged 120 odd over the last 13 rounds last year and looks a million bucks at the minute. Perhaps I will be able to trade in Rockliff for Cripps later on?

Cheers in advance!
 
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Hi Rowan,

I am one of the non Robbie Gray owmers and feel I am missing out badly.

His three week average is 137.

My question is in several parts.

Is Robbie must have and if yes is he must have NOW given his three week average and his previous best full year average is 111.

Should he be expected to revert in which case the boat has left and a different path forward needs to be looked at?

So as a non Gray owner is he must have, if he is is he must have NOW?

Thanks in advance.

Coin for this is not an issue, 142 in chest VDB and Oxley or Salem out and Lever in.
 
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North Melb.
Hi Rowan,

I am one of the non Robbie Gray owmers and feel I am missing out badly.

His three week average is 137.

My question is in several parts.

Is Robbie must have and if yes is he must have NOW given his three week average and his previous best full year average is 111.

Should he be expected to revert in which case the boat has left and a different path forward needs to be looked at?

So as a non Gray owner is he must have, if he is is he must have NOW?

Thanks in advance.

Coin for this is not an issue, 142 in chest VDB and Oxley or Salem out and Lever in.
My opinion.

Yes, he is a must have at some point, barring injury.
Not necessarily a must have NOW at 600k, but maybe during or after the byes if he has a bad game or two in the lead up.
He is currently averaging 120 with an injury affected 73.

I think the biggest question you should ask is, what do you think he will average for the rest of the season?

100-107 - Wait for his price to drop to around 500k.
107-115 - Either get him now or wait until he has a bad game and hope he can drop to 550k or less at the byes.
115+ - Go back in time and get him last week!!

Rowsus will definitely have a better analysis and information for you, above is just my opinion.
 
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Carlton
My opinion.

Yes, he is a must have at some point, barring injury.
Not necessarily a must have NOW at 600k, but maybe during or after the byes if he has a bad game or two in the lead up.
He is currently averaging 120 with an injury affected 73.

I think the biggest question you should ask is, what do you think he will average for the rest of the season?

100-107 - Wait for his price to drop to around 500k.
107-115 - Either get him now or wait until he has a bad game and hope he can drop to 550k or less at the byes.
115+ - Go back in time and get him last week!!

Rowsus will definitely have a better analysis and information for you, above is just my opinion.
Thanks for the reply Anfa, I think not less than 105 for the rest of the year, ceiling, not sure maybe 115 ish
 
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Hi row
Thanks for your advice last week I traded Sloane out for jpk as I have a tough run of matches in the league for the next 4 weeks and most people that had Sloane in the league traded Sloane. If I didn't trade Sloane last week I would have been down a player. So thanks for the advice. I have a new question I would like to trade in rocky I would like to trade him in this week for mr griffen. Griffen has been nothing but poor in thr last 7 weeks. He has a be of 127 and it's highly unlikely he will get that. I know it's sideways trading do you think it's a good idea to trade griffen for rocky. I was considering one of my Rookies but they are not ripped. Do you think I should wait another week and trade rocky to a rookie. I was considering making another trade lever to mcintosh? Do you think i should wait for another defender and save a trade. Mcintosh has a round 11 bye that works for me. Lever bye is not good but I don't want to lose money on mcintosh. As always i appreciate your thoughts and enjoy reading your responses to everyone's questions.
 
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Gidday Rowsus,

Need some help please. I have 20 trades left and $19800 in the bank. Pretty happy with my team (excl defence like many others) however I have Sloane sitting on my bench. I originally planned to keep him there and was going to do a dg/ug of Vberg/Lonie to Lever/Rocky this week and stop trading until byes. However I'm a few grand short and also I'm not sure about the Lever option. So I'm wondering what's the best move. I'm also very conscious of bye rounds now and need to prepare for round 12 as I'm short a few players.

So here are my potential options:
1. Vberg/Clark to Lever/Rocky (hold Lonie)
2. Sloane/Vberg to Rocky/Lever or De Goey and bank $200k odd
Or left field
3. Sloane/Cripps to Rocky/Parker leaving $1500 in the bank and potential bye trouble but two guns in at their cheapest price.

So confused mate, any help would be appreciated! Or hoping you might see another option?
Thanks in advance!

Edit: Hey Row, thinking about just going Sloane to Rocky and keeping rookies for now.
 
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Bob Loblaw

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Rowsus you absolute dead set legend.
A pondering a particular tactical approach to supercoach I don't think is discussed a whole lot (I think many do it subconsciously) and I think makes sense.

I'm going with the plan of picking value players early on before focusing my final trades to pick the top players that I don't have. The advantages are three fold:
1.) More Data: More obviously by picking the top players at the end you have added confidence that they will continue to perform because of more knowledge and games watched throughout the year. One might say you are loosing points by bringing them in late which brings me to the second point.
2.) Points for Cash: By picking value keepers early that say may be 2-3 players or 2-5 points outside the top 6-8 you are getting the same amount or a tad less points for a much cheaper player. Meaning in turn you use left over funds to invest in another value player.
Eg.) The Goddard Vs Mitchell conundrum
Say Titch 405k averages 100 and Goddard 535k averages 106.
You can uses that 120k to find extra 6 points on ground easily. Such an approach later in the year is less beneficial as a fully upgraded team will yield less opportunities to utilise the 120k to advantage.
3.) Safety Mechanism: If by R14 (just after the bye) injury has decimated your team and little trades remain one would feel more comfortable relying upon as little rookies as possible. Also the "value" of these premiums nets you extra points. Also with player resting as it is now a few extra trades could cover a donut net you 100 points and overcome any points loss prior.

Of course I don't mean take ridiculous risks with midpricers. This only works for value keepers.
I have picked Zeiball (390k), Mitchell (405k) and intend to pick Rocky (450k) this week and B Smith, and Selwood in the relatively near future. Leaving players such as Mcdonald who is a "must have" to later as the final touch to my team.

Of course by doing so you run the risk of stocking too heavily on slightly below par players and have to waste trades to bring in the cream. As always, pre planning to ensure the proper balance is crucial.

That being said the winner last year had pretty much the top 6 forwards, defenders, top 2 rucks and top 8 midfielders. However I'm sure he picked up at least a few of them at good value.

Please confirm this isn't complete kaboodle
 
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MrMurdoch

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Hey Rowsus

Is Lever a must have rookie? Was originally planning on going Brayshaw -> Rocky and Lonie -> Lever, but then I realised I could go Sloane (who I was likely to trade next week) -> Rocky and Cripps -> to Stevie J. Do you think this would be a better move? Mitch Duncan out for 10-12 weeks can only mean good things for Stevie. I think a lot of it relies on Lonie not playing this week, which hopefully he doesn't. The 2nd option also leaves me with 100k for future upgrades, as opposed to the first option leaving me with <10k.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

In regards to Sloane, I think the worst case/most likely scenario is that he comes back after the bye, meaning he misses/has missed 5 weeks in total. However, I didn't have trades to get him out for this week, and for next week my planned trades are VDB>Glenn, Hogan>Rockliff. While I am going for overall, after next week he'll only be out for three weeks (2 weeks + bye), and with CEY coming back I have some more solid scoring mid rookies on the field (having to field 3 of Glenn, Krak, CEY, Anderson, Miller, with the luxury of the loophole). In this case, do you think its worth keeping him?

Cheers mate :)
Hey dyii,
if you can hold him without making too many/too big of a compromise to your scoring and trading, then it's no problem. Those Coaches right at the pointy end probably can't afford that amount of money on the bench for that long, but if your goal is looking more top 5,000 than top 500, then it's not a problem. Keep in mind, even if he is bacj in Round 12, it is likely he will take 2 or 3 games to get back to his "old self", and if he throws up one or two more sub 100 scores, that's pretty much expected, too. Could be another reason to consider trading him.
 
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Carlton
Hey Rowsus hows it going? Just wondering which mid prems you think would be the best with round 11 bye. already have rocky, Thinking S.Mitchell, Beams, Bont or Dahl?
Thanks
 
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Hi Rowsus

Have to make a big decision this week... and it is in regards to which line I have to work on.

So my backline is so bare at the moment... and I was wondering if I should bring in Yeo for N.Brown. I have $432k (after doing a mandatory Vandenberg to Lever trade) and want to save some money next week to bring in Rock and Buddy or Selwood.

So I'm wondering what your opinion was in terms of going for a risky pick like Yeo, or going for someone like Heater Shaw (which I would have to use Saad to trade for).

Yeo was brought to my attention on the "trades" thread and has made me really think about him. Initially I was planning on doing either a "Lonie to Franklin or Lonie to Rockliff" trade this week and have enough money to bring in the other player (rock or buddy) and selwood next week. But my backline is so bare at the moment it worries me.

Bringing in Buddy would complete my forward line for now, but mean I have to play 3 midfield rookies still... bringing in Rock would mean I can play 2 mid rookies and Tarrant. Bringing in Yeo would sure up the backline but would mean I wouldn't be able to get either Buddy or Selwood next week and they would have to wait.

If Saad plays, I may play him and not bring in Yeo, but if he doesn't... what do you think my best option is?
 

Sloth

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rowsus or anyone with a bit more iq than myself

touk miller $361900 b/e 34

can u please advise what his approx $$ value will be if he scores a 60, 80 or a 100 this week.

cheers in advance
 

MrMurdoch

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rowsus or anyone with a bit more iq than myself

touk miller $361900 b/e 34

can u please advise what his approx $$ value will be if he scores a 60, 80 or a 100 this week.

cheers in advance
60 373k
80 382k
100 391k
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus, how are you doing?
I was tossing up between 2 trade options and I was wondering whether you could weigh in, please?

1: Trade out Vandenberg & Lonie, move McKenzie to the mids, move T. Mitch forward and bring in Rockliff and Lever. Would leave me with $44,300.
2: Trade out Vandenberg and Hogan, move McKenzie to the mids, move T. Mitch forward and bring in Parker and Lever. Leaves me with $34,300.

I had planned to get Rocky this week but he hasn't yet posted one of those typical 'Rockliff' scores and Parker seems under-priced at 516K. I am especially intrigued by Parker considering he averaged 120 odd over the last 13 rounds last year and looks a million bucks at the minute. Perhaps I will be able to trade in Rockliff for Cripps later on?

Cheers in advance!
Hey 30BoR, I'm doing ok thanks, and I hope you are too. :)
I think selection this week might make this decision a bit easier, as I expect Lonie to be rested, so we don't lose anything by delaying his departure until next week.
My only query in targetting Parker, is that in the last season and a bit, he has averaged just over 100 when he plays with JPK and Hannebery, and 120 in the 9 games when one of those 2 is missing. He's a really good player, and will stand alone soon, but unless there is an unjury to one of the other 2, it's hard to see him going 110+ this season.
 

Rowsus

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Who to tip between Swans vs Hawks? I am very inspired to tip the Swans with their midfield depth.
Hawthorn hold a 15/5 record over Sydney at the MCG, and have won 8 of the last 9 games played there against Sydney since Round 15 2008. Hawthorn's average winning margin in those 8 wins is 30 points. Sydney's only win against Hawthorn at the MCG since 2008 was the 2012 GF, which they won by 10 points.
Hawthorn for mine, though I rate them around a 65% chance, Sydney 34% and the Draw 1%.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowan,

I am one of the non Robbie Gray owmers and feel I am missing out badly.

His three week average is 137.

My question is in several parts.

Is Robbie must have and if yes is he must have NOW given his three week average and his previous best full year average is 111.

Should he be expected to revert in which case the boat has left and a different path forward needs to be looked at?

So as a non Gray owner is he must have, if he is is he must have NOW?

Thanks in advance.

Coin for this is not an issue, 142 in chest VDB and Oxley or Salem out and Lever in.
My opinion.

Yes, he is a must have at some point, barring injury.
Not necessarily a must have NOW at 600k, but maybe during or after the byes if he has a bad game or two in the lead up.
He is currently averaging 120 with an injury affected 73.

I think the biggest question you should ask is, what do you think he will average for the rest of the season?

100-107 - Wait for his price to drop to around 500k.
107-115 - Either get him now or wait until he has a bad game and hope he can drop to 550k or less at the byes.
115+ - Go back in time and get him last week!!

Rowsus will definitely have a better analysis and information for you, above is just my opinion.
Thanks for the reply Anfa, I think not less than 105 for the rest of the year, ceiling, not sure maybe 115 ish
Hey bd,
I think anfa summed it up pretty well.
I agree, he's a must have. In general, I don't think it's advisable to pay top dollar for trade ins. That's for the pre-season selections. The only exceptions I would make, is the very top shelf of each line. Gray meets that exception. He should be F1 from everything we've seen so far, and if you wait for him to drop to $550k or lower, you might possibly never have him. Having said that, you have got this far without him, and $600k is a lot pay for any player, particularly a non-Mid. I think you either get him now, or you nearly have to wait until after his bye, as being a Rnd 13 bye player, he can't/shouldn't be traded in during the byes.
 
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