Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus · 12 Mar 2014

Hi Couch Coach,
the best method for determing Keepers right now, is not to assume a player will increase his scoring to a high enough level to become one. Only assume they will be a Keeper if they have scored at a Keeper level in the last 2 seasons. Even then 1 or 2 will be questionable.

Rowsus · 12 Mar 2014

siwel said:

_Slip_ said:

siwel and _Slip_ I will come back to your questions when I have a little more time later tonight.

siwel · 12 Mar 2014

no dramas

Rowsus · 13 Mar 2014

siwel said:

Both players seem to have some high numbers in their last season, that at first glance might be hard to replicate.
Malceski seems to shine every third season, with good years in 2007, 2010 and 2013. His pts/100%TOG are somewhat stable, so it all comes down to his TOG. Last season was the 2nd highest TOG he had recorded. Yes, some of his TOG's are injury affected, but it might be best to assume it might fall back a little this season. His K:H was incredible, and should also be expected to fall back a somewhat, and his Dis/100%TOG was a career high. Once again, I'd expect that to drop a little. So many high, or near career highs so late in his career could point to drop o*** to come. I'd be mildly surprised if he managed 90+ this season.
SDT has some numbers that are just off the chart! His TOG, and SC to DT are just ridiculous! The one thing in his favour, is they have both been that way the last 5 seasons! His improvement last season can be seen in his dramatic improvement in his K:H. If he can maintain those 3 (TOG, K:H and SC to DT), or near maintain them, he should finish in front of Malceski. I would expect he too will fall back a little this season. He scores much better when North win, than when they lose, nearly a 27% difference! North have an easier draw this season, and should post a few more wins.
Based on what we see here, I'll mark Malceski at 88-89/game, and SDT at 92-93/game.

Rowsus · 13 Mar 2014

_Slip_ said:

The reply to this depends greatly on how I think each player will score for the season. Looking at the potential Keepers, the ones I think will have dropped the most in price after round 11 is played are:

Defenders
Bartel - drops $107k to $465k - then averages 102 in the last 11 games
Hodge - drops $84k to $438k - then averages 96 in the last 11 games
Thompson SD - drops $82k to $447k - then averages 95 in the last 11 games
McVeigh - drops $81k to $491k - then averages 97 in the last 11 games
Walker A - drops $80k to $492k - then averages 96 in the last 11 games

Midfielders
Johnson S - drops $97k to $488k - then averages 116 in the last 11 games
Selwood J - drops $85k to $549k - then averages 115 in the last 11 games
Pendlebury - drops $72k to $619k - then averages 126 in the last 11 games
Barlow - drops $68k to $528k - then averages 114 in the last 11 games
Rockliff - drops $66k to $530k - then averages 110 in the last 11 games

Rucks
Goldstein - drops $82k to $530k - then averages 113 in the last 11 games
Minson - drops $40k to $577k - then averages 108 in the last 11 games
Cox - drops $35k to $544k - then averages 104 in the last 11 games
Leuenberger - drops $20k to $504k - then averages 104 in the last 11 games
McEvoy - drops $15k to $489k - then averages 101 in the last 11 games

Forwards
Petrie - drops $96k to $459k - then averages 99 in the last 11 games
Harvey - drops $78k to $483k - then averages 102 in the last 11 games
Cloke - drops $63k to $450k - then averages 99 in the last 11 games
Riewoldt N - drops $63k to $504k - then averages 96 in the last 11 games
Westhoff - drops $56k to $475k - then averages 94 in the last 11 games

Some of them represent better value than others, but they are the 20 players I think will drop the most in price after round 11.

siwel · 13 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

Both players seem to have some high numbers in their last season, that at first glance might be hard to replicate.
Malceski seems to shine every third season, with good years in 2007, 2010 and 2013. His pts/100%TOG are somewhat stable, so it all comes down to his TOG. Last season was the 2nd highest TOG he had recorded. Yes, some of his TOG's are injury affected, but it might be best to assume it might fall back a little this season. His K:H was incredible, and should also be expected to fall back a somewhat, and his Dis/100%TOG was a career high. Once again, I'd expect that to drop a little. So many high, or near career highs so late in his career could point to drop o*** to come. I'd be mildly surprised if he managed 90+ this season.
SDT has some numbers that are just off the chart! His TOG, and SC to DT are just ridiculous! The one thing in his favour, is they have both been that way the last 5 seasons! His improvement last season can be seen in his dramatic improvement in his K:H. If he can maintain those 3 (TOG, K:H and SC to DT), or near maintain them, he should finish in front of Malceski. I would expect he too will fall back a little this season. He scores much better when North win, than when they lose, nearly a 27% difference! North have an easier draw this season, and should post a few more wins.
Based on what we see here, I'll mark Malceski at 88-89/game, and SDT at 92-93/game.

thanks again, as always very comprehensive and in depth, I did make the change to ST last night and will be sticking with that

dyii · 13 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

Based on this Rowsus, would you recommend starting Minson, then upgrading someone else like Sandi to Goldstein after his bye (or around that time)?

freowho · 13 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

This is a great piece of information Rowsus.

It is interesting to see 4 Kangaroos on this list. I think assuming a massive improvement from North Melbourne players can be a bit of a catch this year. Even though they finished 10th there percentage was 119.5. There win loss was poor but statistically, which is what supercoach is all about, they had a decent year. Unless an individual has a change of job there is no reason to believe massive improvement. Where as West Coast, Footscray and Melbourne had terrible percentages last year and it is reasonable to expect some of their players to have better years staistically even if they don't win a lot more games, especially Melbourne.

Rowsus · 13 Mar 2014

dyii said:

Based on this, it looks like a very sound tactic to adopt. The future will tell if it is!

_Slip_ · 13 Mar 2014

Thx Rowsus great research. Now my brain is thinking overtime lol.

IDIG · 13 Mar 2014

_Slip_ said:

Just what you need as the teams are named hahah

jmack5 · 13 Mar 2014

Rowsus, do you think Douglas' injury will increase Wright's time in the midfield and scoring output?

Rowsus · 13 Mar 2014

jmack5 said:

Only a little, if any. I'm still not convinced he won't get the "run with" role most weeks.

freowho · 13 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

I agree. Nobody tags in the NAB cup so the taggers score well. I was watching Crowley in the NAB cup and he would stand someone at the stoppage but then go and chase the ball. So uncrowley like.

Babylove · 13 Mar 2014

Hi Rowsus,

I'm sure you've been asked this before but what are your thoughts on the three Sydney Forwards, Franklin, Mitchell & Parker. All have strong reasons to pick them, but carry an element of risk. Mitchell & Parker seem to have more upside than Franklin, and being midfielder forwards rather than KPF, should provide more consistency, but Franklin is the proven performer, though has questions about the new team, ground and possible quad injury. Would love to hear your opinion on them.

Goodie's Guns · 13 Mar 2014

Babylove said:

Hi Rowsus,

I'm sure you've been asked this before but what are your thoughts on the three Sydney Forwards, Franklin, Mitchell & Parker. All have strong reasons to pick them, but carry an element of risk. Mitchell & Parker seem to have more upside than Franklin, and being midfielder forwards rather than KPF, should provide more consistency, but Franklin is the proven performer, though has questions about the new team, ground and possible quad injury. Would love to hear your opinion on them.

Great question mate, can't wait to see the answer.

Aneil915 · 13 Mar 2014

Babylove said:

Hi Rowsus,

I'm sure you've been asked this before but what are your thoughts on the three Sydney Forwards, Franklin, Mitchell & Parker. All have strong reasons to pick them, but carry an element of risk. Mitchell & Parker seem to have more upside than Franklin, and being midfielder forwards rather than KPF, should provide more consistency, but Franklin is the proven performer, though has questions about the new team, ground and possible quad injury. Would love to hear your opinion on them.

If I could add to this, do you think we could or should have 2 of these players in our team?

tracygrims · 13 Mar 2014

Hey Rowsus,

With Dunstan likely starting for my team as M8 and Cunningham as M10, do you think its exessive to have a rookie like Viv Michie on the bench as M9?
I'm juggling M9 between Crouch (117k and vest candidate), Michie (172k), Aish (187k) and Roberston (117k) at the moment.

To everyone else, who have you got as M9,M10?

The extra cash could be used to say upgrade a Cox to a Minson, or a Franklin to a Martin for example..

Bob Loblaw · 13 Mar 2014

Rowsus,

I always include too many midpricers and I am asking myself "Will they be a keeper."

Can I get your oppinions on the following players if you see them as keepers, possible or not:

S Hurn - Probable
J Grimes - If he stays fit! Big if.
D Swallow - my opinion, no
M Suckling - ditto
D Beams - probable
M Murphy - likely
L Shuey - borderline
D Thomas - no
M Lobbe - possible
A Sandilands - If he stays fir
T Hickey - no
T Cloke - possibly
JJ Kennedy - unlikely
L Parker - possibly
T Mitchell - possibly
D Zorko - more likely than the last 2, but no confidence
J Caddy - possibly
M Wright - possibly

Any other questionable players I've forgotten.

Thanks in advance.

What about Pavlich do you reckon he will average 95+?
Weighing up between him and T Mitchell at the moment.
Heard Pav had an injury free preseason, but was un impressive in the NAB but why should he be, they were smashed. I think reiwoldt had no NAB last year and did great.

Rowsus · 13 Mar 2014

Babylove said:

Goodie's Guns said:

Aneil915 said:

I have just tonight taken Buddy out, and put Mitchell in.
I think it is quite conceivable 2 of the 3 will be top 10 Forwards for the season, so having 2 of them is ok.
I'm really having trouble splitting the 3, and I am obviously leaning to Mitchell first...... right now.
He has upside, as does Parker, but he seems to have some X factor, where Parker is more of a workhorse type, though I think Parker will kick more goals.
Buddy could come out and smash GWS, and if he does, no regrets. If he keeps smashing teams however......

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

siwel

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

siwel

dyii

freowho

Rowsus

Statistician

_Slip_

IDIG

Leadership Group

jmack5

Rowsus

Statistician

freowho

Babylove

Goodie's Guns

Leadership Group

Aneil915

tracygrims

250 Games Club

Bob Loblaw

150 Games Club

Rowsus

Statistician