In some years I can see some advantage in "parking" a Rookie, like was done last year with Terlich, though that was confidently only one game to wait. We can't be sure when M Crouch will appear. Don't forget the dramas with Couch in 2012. He took ages, and everyone "assumed" he would play early. Unless there is a known reason, like there was with Terlich last season, I prefer the "bird in the hand" approach. Wait for tomorrow nights teams, and see if the rumours about Honeychurch being close are true.
Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Do you have a rule/formula how to decide if it is better to go for value vs scoring ability.
What I mean by value is that a rookie will nearly always increase more in price than even an underpriced midpricer (eg Suckling), however the midpricer will often score higher each round. So how much current profit can you give away to have the bigger gains in the future.
You say that Suckling needs to score around 90 points/week to be worth it. In that case he would increase about $150k in value.
On the other hand a rookie that only costs $120k would increase about $180k with an average of 60.
I am currently contemplating downgrading Suckling to Georgiou, however I don't see a good way to spend the saved $210k immediately.
Unless I upgrade Higgins to M Wright, Rioli, or Zorko in the forward line. Rioli is obviously not playing in round 1 (I could wait until Sunday I upgrade Rohan to Rioli), Wright could have a break-out year but I am not really convinced, while Zorko is probably going to end up in the top 10 forwards imo. The only problem then is that I have put already 5 players into my forward line that are potential keepers (Dangerfield, D Martin, Franklin, Pavlich, Zorko). Is that too much?
What I mean by value is that a rookie will nearly always increase more in price than even an underpriced midpricer (eg Suckling), however the midpricer will often score higher each round. So how much current profit can you give away to have the bigger gains in the future.
You say that Suckling needs to score around 90 points/week to be worth it. In that case he would increase about $150k in value.
On the other hand a rookie that only costs $120k would increase about $180k with an average of 60.
I am currently contemplating downgrading Suckling to Georgiou, however I don't see a good way to spend the saved $210k immediately.
Unless I upgrade Higgins to M Wright, Rioli, or Zorko in the forward line. Rioli is obviously not playing in round 1 (I could wait until Sunday I upgrade Rohan to Rioli), Wright could have a break-out year but I am not really convinced, while Zorko is probably going to end up in the top 10 forwards imo. The only problem then is that I have put already 5 players into my forward line that are potential keepers (Dangerfield, D Martin, Franklin, Pavlich, Zorko). Is that too much?
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Hopefully this gives a clearer picture of how much money your rookie will make - pick the price, then the average you think and then follow it until you get a price increase you like.
*I have taken into account pricing coefficient reduction over the season, starting at 5400 and reducing by 50 per week from week 3.
*I have taken into account pricing coefficient reduction over the season, starting at 5400 and reducing by 50 per week from week 3.
Have you taken into account that the adjustment to the formula is bigger in week 3 because of the bubble effect.
I also remember a post by Rowsus where he talks about the % changes of the magic number each week.
I believe he said 7-8% in week 3 and about 3% each week thereafter
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I took it into account in a linear way (magic number = 5400-50*(#Rd-2)) so the numbers I've given are probably too big by between 0-10%. Note also that if a rookie misses a game here or there, the number becomes even less accurate.. And of course, this is assuming a constant 3-round average - lol.
Added a few more tables for 250k, 300k, 350k and 400k just for comparison of Higgins, Sandilands, Daisy, Caddy, Wright and Suckling type players..
Added a few more tables for 250k, 300k, 350k and 400k just for comparison of Higgins, Sandilands, Daisy, Caddy, Wright and Suckling type players..
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Considering your comment on Brodie Martin, what about Xavier Ellis. He seems to be in everybody's team and everybody is expecting big reliable scores. Looking at his figures, he has played a total of 86 games, has been around since 2007, is 26 years old and his highest average was 79.8 in 8 games in 2011 and his career average is 68.3. What am I missing and don't you have a rule about this?
Great job on the tables, tracygrims. Very useful. As we all (should) know, tables like these are just an approximate guide to price movements. One large, or exceptionally low score can skew the changes for 3 weeks. The tables are good for planning ahead, and thinking "Where will Impey be at price-wise if he scores 60 in the next 5 games?".
Just a side note on your MN regression. Your regression has it falling to around 4400. what I have found is, that in round 3 it will drop between 300 and 370, but after that time only drops on average about 12 to 15 per week, and actually rises in some weeks! The final MN is usually between 4700 and 4800.
edit - just saw your note above about doing it in a linear fashion.
Just a side note on your MN regression. Your regression has it falling to around 4400. what I have found is, that in round 3 it will drop between 300 and 370, but after that time only drops on average about 12 to 15 per week, and actually rises in some weeks! The final MN is usually between 4700 and 4800.
edit - just saw your note above about doing it in a linear fashion.
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Yeah, its not exact, but considering the MN changes from year to year mainly depending on how many underpriced players (ie. rookies) are playing, we may see some different behaviour this year anyway considering the high price of rookies and lack of them! Plus the tables only stretch to round 10 so in that week it is at 5000 which would be reasonably accurate?
It all breaks if your rookie begins playing at round 2 anyway!
It all breaks if your rookie begins playing at round 2 anyway!
There are a number of important differences between B Martin and X Ellis.
Martins longest game streak ever is 5, his 2nd longest is 4.
Ellis' longest streak is 23, more games than Martin has played! His longest is 20, also more games than Martin has played!
Martin has struggled to get into a team that was also struggling at times.
Ellis has played in strong Hawthorn teams. He has played 6 finals, including 2 GF's, one GF where he had 28 possessions. Martin has only ever had 3 games with more than 20 possessions, and certainly never in a GF. Ellis has 33 games with 20+ possessions.
Ellis finds himself at a new Club, with a new coach. To me, that equates to most of the players are back to square one in the "pecking order". Martin is at the same Club, under the same coach. Ellis will likely get a slightly different role at WC, than he was getting at Hawthorn
Ellis' coach has publicly stated that he believes a fit Ellis is in their best 22. No such support for Martin from Sando.
Ellis costs $159k, will likely score around 75-80/game. Martin costs $175k and will score about 65-70/game (just my guesses).
Both are huge injury risks. Both break "The Rules", but Martin breaks more of them, and by bigger margins.
Martins longest game streak ever is 5, his 2nd longest is 4.
Ellis' longest streak is 23, more games than Martin has played! His longest is 20, also more games than Martin has played!
Martin has struggled to get into a team that was also struggling at times.
Ellis has played in strong Hawthorn teams. He has played 6 finals, including 2 GF's, one GF where he had 28 possessions. Martin has only ever had 3 games with more than 20 possessions, and certainly never in a GF. Ellis has 33 games with 20+ possessions.
Ellis finds himself at a new Club, with a new coach. To me, that equates to most of the players are back to square one in the "pecking order". Martin is at the same Club, under the same coach. Ellis will likely get a slightly different role at WC, than he was getting at Hawthorn
Ellis' coach has publicly stated that he believes a fit Ellis is in their best 22. No such support for Martin from Sando.
Ellis costs $159k, will likely score around 75-80/game. Martin costs $175k and will score about 65-70/game (just my guesses).
Both are huge injury risks. Both break "The Rules", but Martin breaks more of them, and by bigger margins.
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Yeah cheers mate, i went that way myself - if hmac went down/rested id be screwed
Ive definitely got myself into a "situation" with my structure, i wanted to try something different this year due to price of rookie mids and no prems jumping out in defence, but now not convinced ive gone the right way at all
Ive definitely got myself into a "situation" with my structure, i wanted to try something different this year due to price of rookie mids and no prems jumping out in defence, but now not convinced ive gone the right way at all
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Thanks for clearing that up. Had a good chuckle at 'both break "The Rules", but Martin breaks more of them, and by bigger margins.
Even apart from the injury risk, I just don't feel that Ellis is good value if he only pumps out 75-80. However considering your above points of new team, new coach, different role plus being in the mid twenties and in the 50-100 game bracket, this could be his breakout year.
After taking all this into account, I have decided to look for value elsewhere and brought Jelwood into my team after downgrading some mid pricers as well
Even apart from the injury risk, I just don't feel that Ellis is good value if he only pumps out 75-80. However considering your above points of new team, new coach, different role plus being in the mid twenties and in the 50-100 game bracket, this could be his breakout year.
After taking all this into account, I have decided to look for value elsewhere and brought Jelwood into my team after downgrading some mid pricers as well
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Have you seen the earlier post about Cox and Naitanui. Because looking at the figures I don't think that Cox will be able to maintain last years average unless Naitanui goes down again. There is an 18 point difference between the games that Cox rucks by himself to the games where they ruck as a tandem, which in my opinion masks the fact that Cox' output is waning.
And good luck with Daisy. It was only one week and the guy certainly has talent and he is back with his beloved coach. Fitness (including being injury free) is the only issue.
And good luck with Daisy. It was only one week and the guy certainly has talent and he is back with his beloved coach. Fitness (including being injury free) is the only issue.
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When I was at footy Sunday night I read this quote of you on my phone in a break in play.
I then posted in thread after quarter time or something.
You elaborated more later on during the night.
I was not one of those guys.
I actually went to the Carlton v Crows practice game and actually took a lot of notice that Ellard looked in good touch.
Never considered him for SC though. I knew he can score quite well and underrated but I would have guessed his price was higher than what it is after I checked yesterday. As you noted, he had a LTI last year so off the radar for some time but never had a guaranteed spot in team but with Judd out early rounds I figured he'd be part of midfield rotations. He has a bit more offense to his game than the other tertiary midfielders like Curnow and Cachia in our side. Probably in the side right now because Armfield is out.
Grant and other regular posting Carlton followers here were talking up Cripps playing but I did not see enough in practice game to make me think he would get a gig round 1 ahead of likes of Ellard.
Now that I seen he was around $220 K this season I can see why you might have had a go with him.
I'm sure I never would have actually put him in my team if I looked into it. However, if I had looked up his price, if the choice between Jack Martin, Tyson and Ellard, the middle man Tyson was pretty much always in my team. Think he has better js.
Martin I flirted with having but like most, got put off in the end by the big price for such a small player new to seniors.
Having said that, now we know you did flirt with Ellard in your team for a while I can see how it must have tortured you Sunday night when he got 120 for 1st game of season.
Problem is for him, many types like him in our club so he'll always be having job security issues. 3 weeks down the track he may not even be in team or starting sub etc. That is why probably better you did not go for him in the end. Stats wise though I can see why you were tempted.
he he.. Most of us can relate at one stage in SC.
I remember last season I had a brief period I was really happy with my squad about a week or so before 1st game started. Stevie J was a lock, then I heard he had surgery. I also had Ablett in at start in that version of team. However, after Stevei J had to come out, I tinkered and tinkered a couple of times and eventually made a mess of it by not finding any single player to bring in for Stevie J so in the end I just took a punt with Jack Watts...lol
I also tinkered in midfield from Ablett to Pendles to Dangerfield and finally settled on cheaper Shuey. Complete disaster all round. To top off the Stevie J butterfly effect, when Jack Watts had to go, soon after, I went to Rioli so went from Stevie J to Watts to Rioli.. The cost in value, scores and trades is so bad to think about All gone down the drain so quickly that my season was virtually cooked after a couple of rounds.
24 hours ago, I came to the lovely space where I feel my SC team is actually how I like it even though a few players stuffed up with scores on weekend, I still like the look of my squad overall. I now, just need to avoid tinkering...lol..
I must admit though, Jacobs out of my ruck for Hamish McIntosh is looking tempting...lol..
Any merit in it ?
I see a lot of coaches have Dunstan in their team. I must admit he is not in mine. Could I be making a mistake leaving him out ?
I then posted in thread after quarter time or something.
You elaborated more later on during the night.
I was not one of those guys.
I actually went to the Carlton v Crows practice game and actually took a lot of notice that Ellard looked in good touch.
Never considered him for SC though. I knew he can score quite well and underrated but I would have guessed his price was higher than what it is after I checked yesterday. As you noted, he had a LTI last year so off the radar for some time but never had a guaranteed spot in team but with Judd out early rounds I figured he'd be part of midfield rotations. He has a bit more offense to his game than the other tertiary midfielders like Curnow and Cachia in our side. Probably in the side right now because Armfield is out.
Grant and other regular posting Carlton followers here were talking up Cripps playing but I did not see enough in practice game to make me think he would get a gig round 1 ahead of likes of Ellard.
Now that I seen he was around $220 K this season I can see why you might have had a go with him.
I'm sure I never would have actually put him in my team if I looked into it. However, if I had looked up his price, if the choice between Jack Martin, Tyson and Ellard, the middle man Tyson was pretty much always in my team. Think he has better js.
Martin I flirted with having but like most, got put off in the end by the big price for such a small player new to seniors.
Having said that, now we know you did flirt with Ellard in your team for a while I can see how it must have tortured you Sunday night when he got 120 for 1st game of season.
Problem is for him, many types like him in our club so he'll always be having job security issues. 3 weeks down the track he may not even be in team or starting sub etc. That is why probably better you did not go for him in the end. Stats wise though I can see why you were tempted.
he he.. Most of us can relate at one stage in SC.
I remember last season I had a brief period I was really happy with my squad about a week or so before 1st game started. Stevie J was a lock, then I heard he had surgery. I also had Ablett in at start in that version of team. However, after Stevei J had to come out, I tinkered and tinkered a couple of times and eventually made a mess of it by not finding any single player to bring in for Stevie J so in the end I just took a punt with Jack Watts...lol
I also tinkered in midfield from Ablett to Pendles to Dangerfield and finally settled on cheaper Shuey. Complete disaster all round. To top off the Stevie J butterfly effect, when Jack Watts had to go, soon after, I went to Rioli so went from Stevie J to Watts to Rioli.. The cost in value, scores and trades is so bad to think about All gone down the drain so quickly that my season was virtually cooked after a couple of rounds.
24 hours ago, I came to the lovely space where I feel my SC team is actually how I like it even though a few players stuffed up with scores on weekend, I still like the look of my squad overall. I now, just need to avoid tinkering...lol..
I must admit though, Jacobs out of my ruck for Hamish McIntosh is looking tempting...lol..
Any merit in it ?
I see a lot of coaches have Dunstan in their team. I must admit he is not in mine. Could I be making a mistake leaving him out ?
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I'm not a big fan of HMac, particularly if you have Sandi. I can't see Simpson being out of the team that long, he's too good to not play. I'm not feeling safe about HMac's role security, let alone injury history. If he stays on the park, he makes money, no doubt. but if/when he starts missing games it becomes a question of "why did I do it?". I think there was room for one risk Ruck this year, and Sandi's record said it should be him, taking both could pay off, but it seems like a bit of a longshot.
I see Dunstan having good JS. He's fitter and rated in front of Billings. Steven is out, Lenny is getting old, Saints are rebuilding, it all spells good news for Dunstan. I'm not sure he will be a must have, but I think he will be useful. I don't count Joey being out as a huge bonus. He'll be back next week, and round 1 is the least consequential on prices, as far as playing Rookies are concerned .
I see Dunstan having good JS. He's fitter and rated in front of Billings. Steven is out, Lenny is getting old, Saints are rebuilding, it all spells good news for Dunstan. I'm not sure he will be a must have, but I think he will be useful. I don't count Joey being out as a huge bonus. He'll be back next week, and round 1 is the least consequential on prices, as far as playing Rookies are concerned .
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