Position Rate My Team - SC Now Open

[GrainFedBeef]

Hey guys, thought I'd do a bit of a team analysis on the team that I keep coming back to as I have nothing better to do with my day. Apologies in advance for the length of it as it will be quite detailed. Each player I have selected in my team will be critiqued as to why I have chosen them. I have $5,300 salary leftover, let me know what you think, enjoy the read, and hope I can help some people out with the information. Cheers!

Taylor Adams: 23 years old and has huge scoring potential (averaged 115.8 from last 7 full games of 2015 and had a low score of 88 from full games up until R20 in 2016). The issue with Adams is his durability, however if he can stay fit, he is an absolute lock as a defender as I see him averaging 105 and being top 3.

Hamish Hartlett: 26 years old and entering SC prime age, he has always had the talent, but just needs to add better consistency to his game. Il be watching his pre season closely regarding his position, but if he plays in the midfield in NAB challenge he is huge value for his price. Prior to his poor 2016 season, without including subbed games he has averaged 92, 91, 91, 102, 101 in the previous 5 seasons, therefore if he can get back to his best, he is 20ppg underpriced. Averaged 114 from his last 8 games of 2015 so has the proven ability to score very highly and as a defender that is very valuable scoring.

Curtly Hampton: Out for the majority of 2016 with a foot injury, he played the last couple of months in the SANFL which makes him cheap as chips for 2017. Has potential and has been training with the midfield group at Adelaide. In 2014 at GWS he averaged 79.1 from his 10 full games, including a decent average of 88.9 in his first 7 games (78, 110, 89, 109, 66, 92, 78). At $160k his a lock if named R1.

Gary Ablett: Risky as he is getting older and getting injured more often, however I want one last season to select and farewell the mighty GAJ from my SC team that he has carried for many many years. I think he still has the scoring ability to average 120 and with the departures of Prestia and JOM he will still be needed in the midfield. Like Pendles, I think GAJ will be used forward more often but he has the potential to kick 3 goals a game as a dangerous small forward, and if he collects 25-30 touches a game in addition to this, his scores will definitely reflect well.

Tom Rockliff: Despite again being an injury risk, looking back at his past seasons, his games tally of 19, 20, 22, 21, 18, 16, 17 was not as bad as expected. If he can overcome his injuries, he is one of the best SC scorers in the game and has a huge ceiling. Brisbane forums are saying his looking the fittest they have ever seen him, and with the off-season problems he will be looking to recapture his best footy after he admitted losing his love for the game in 2016. Averaged 125.75 from the last 12 games of 2016 with 50% of those games 130+. Scoring is evident, just needs to stay fit and I'm taking the risk in hope that he does.

Nat Fyfe: Still only 25 years old and despite having most of the year off with injury, his back at training and looking extremely fit. When fit he is an absolute SC scoring machine with season averages of 122 and 124 (135 from his first 12 games of 2015 before the Mitchell knee) prior to last year. Extremely underpriced at an average of 106, heres hoping he gets back to his best and stays injury free in 2017.

Dayne Beams: Has been quite unlucky with injuries at Brisbane and when he gets on the park he delivers. In his past 3 seasons where he has played 15 games or more, his unsubbed averages are 123 in 2012, 118 in 2014, and 121 in 2015 from R3-15 before injury struck. Theres no doubt his an injury risk, but when his priced at an average of 80 and averages around 120 when he plays, he is considerably underpriced and huge value if fit in round 1.

David Swallow: At $280k and priced at an average of 52, he is extremely underpriced and will be a great stepping stone to a premium. With Prestia and JOM gone his reliance through the midfield will be increased, and his in full pre season training and looking fit. Averaged 103 in 2014 so has the scoring ability, just needs to get on the park. I see him averaging 90-95 which makes him 40ppg underpriced, lock if ready for R1.

David Myers: Has to be a lock if named for R1 and looks fit. Priced as a rookie at $133k, this makes him priced at a ridiculous average of 25. He has scoring ability as evident by his 2014 season where he averaged 86 (95 from R16-22). I expect around 75-80 from Myers if he plays which makes him 50ppg underpriced. Lock.

Max Gawn: Had a massive 2016 with a huge average of 125 between R3-21 (which mind you includes a crappy 49 and 63), and with 5 scores above 160+ he also becomes a good captain option. Can't see him going any lower than 110 and his only 24 years old which is young for a ruck man, therefore he has the potential to improve and average 120+ so his locked.


Harley Bennell: If he overcomes his calf injury and is ready for R1 I think he presents huge value as his scoring ability is to a premium standard. In his previous 4 seasons he has averaged 97, 96, 96 and 102 so he can score, and the fact he is priced at 72 he is quite underpriced for what he is capable of.

Your record is fantastic DMCC110. Think you will realise in time you have so many injury prone players that the odds will be against you. We have seen the odd year where injury players pay off, however, some of these have repeat history. All it takes is one in round 3 when others are jumping on the right one or two bolsters, that you can be left behind.

Suggest you force rank these players on potential risk/return and cut back the list. Most times an injury returned player is $100k undervalued. Often you can jump on this player in round 3 and if you get that one and skip the rest you are still fine (as they often get re injured).

Think Fyfe looks attractive vs Ablett/Rocky. A very fit Rocky in preseason a maybe. Will Ablett cost you that much. Remember deflating Magic Number will o***et some of their outperformance if you do miss them. This has little impact on a Myers so he looks a lock if selected round 1.

Adams has had a minimum of 5 different injuries in recent times, where do you draw the line?

Back a Fyfe (leg issue should be fixed) whose big body protects his shoulder more so than an Ablett.

Beams watching carefully as he can be a premium which is needed to justify selection. However, was it tendonitis? If everyone has him and he looks strong preseason then will likely pick him, any question marks and I will pick a Swallow. Jaeger still on restricted duties, what does this suggest?

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Here's what I got when I asked HS about the checker and why this year I didn't get access:

Dear M*,

Thank you for your email.

The access to Supercoach GOLD would have been lost when a cancellation of your Digital subscription to the Herald Sun was made. Supercoach GOLD is included in your subscription to the digital. This was cancelled on the 21/10/2016 and no payments had been made to keep your GOLD subscription.

Please don't hesitate to contact Customer Support on 1300 696 397 for further assistance.

Kind Regards,

Brooke
News Corp Australia, Customer Support Team

This happened to anyone else?

* I think I was pretty zealous in my ending the digital subscription actually. Really miffed me that you have to phone them and go through a process rather than just click a button. oops ;-)

 

[Darkie]

Hi, appreciate any feedback on my team which I have tried to consolidate with value picks (injury discounts) reckon Martin in Def will be a rewarding POD and apparently Ben Long going very well in preseason training

Def
Rance, Alex $535,600
Howe, Jeremy $500,500
Martin, Jack (FWD) $404,200
Murphy, Robert $392,300
Thurlow, Jackson $267,600
McGrath, Andrew (MID) $211,800
Keeffe, Lachlan $165,900
Stewart, Tom $117,300
Mids:
Dangerfield, Patrick $716,900
Kennedy, Josh P. $617,100
Fyfe, Nat $573,500
Beams, Dayne $432,500
O'Meara, Jaeger $318,900
Swallow, David $280,200
McCluggage, Hugh (FWD) $202,800
Foote, Jordan $182,800
Myers, David $133,700
Barrett, Jake $127,900
Freeman, Nathan $123,900
Rucks:
Goldstein, Todd $588,400
Sandilands, Aaron $308,200
Giles, Jonathan $280,600
Fwds:
Dahlhaus, Luke (MID) $520,700
Lynch, Tom J. $507,200
Heeney, Isaac $433,400
Ryder, Patrick (RUC) $418,100
McCarthy, Cam $203,600
Bowes, Jack (MID) $171,300
Pickett, Jarrod (MID) $123,900
Long, Ben (DEF) $117,300

Hi Wayne,

The main thing I'd say about this side is that I think you have comfortably too many midpriced players.

If you can reduce the number of players priced between, say $220,000-500,000, I think your side would be much stronger for it. As an indicator, you have 10 names in that bracket, and I have 4 - and I'm still wondering whether I have too many!

If a player doesn't have a record of scoring at premium level, and isn't going to outscore their price by around 30-40+ per game (which is a tough ask), then they typically won't be a good keeper, and they probably won't be a good cash cow either.

You probably want to maximize the number of players that are in one of those two categories - your good keepers are what it's all about in the end, and the good cash cows are what help fund extra keepers as they mature.

Good luck!

 

[IDIG]

Here's what I got when I asked HS about the checker and why this year I didn't get access:

Dear M*,

Thank you for your email.

The access to Supercoach GOLD would have been lost when a cancellation of your Digital subscription to the Herald Sun was made. Supercoach GOLD is included in your subscription to the digital. This was cancelled on the 21/10/2016 and no payments had been made to keep your GOLD subscription.

Please don't hesitate to contact Customer Support on 1300 696 397 for further assistance.

Kind Regards,

Brooke
News Corp Australia, Customer Support Team

This happened to anyone else?

* I think I was pretty zealous in my ending the digital subscription actually. Really miffed me that you have to phone them and go through a process rather than just click a button. oops ;-)

Definitely happened to me last year. Seems odd that we spend a heck of a lot more money than gold only subscribers but lose the ability to access once cancelled.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Hi Wayne,

The main thing I'd say about this side is that I think you have comfortably too many midpriced players.

If you can reduce the number of players priced between, say $220,000-500,000, I think your side would be much stronger for it. As an indicator, you have 10 names in that bracket, and I have 4 - and I'm still wondering whether I have too many!

If a player doesn't have a record of scoring at premium level, and isn't going to outscore their price by around per game (which is a tough ask), then they typically won't be a good keeper, and they probably won't be a good cash cow either.

You probably want to maximize the number of players that are in one of those two categories - your good keepers are what it's all about in the end, and the good cash cows are what help fund extra keepers as they mature.

Good luck!

Oops - I have 9 of them. Could be a long year again for me.

 

[jarrad_]

Oops - I have 9 of them. Could be a long year again for me.

only 3 for me sandilands,caddy and heeney 5 if howe and pittard count being just over and under 500k

 

[Darkie]

Hi Wayne,

The main thing I'd say about this side is that I think you have comfortably too many midpriced players.

If you can reduce the number of players priced between, say $220,000-500,000, I think your side would be much stronger for it. As an indicator, you have 10 names in that bracket, and I have 4 - and I'm still wondering whether I have too many!

If a player doesn't have a record of scoring at premium level, and isn't going to outscore their price by around 30-40+ per game (which is a tough ask), then they typically won't be a good keeper, and they probably won't be a good cash cow either.

You probably want to maximize the number of players that are in one of those two categories - your good keepers are what it's all about in the end, and the good cash cows are what help fund extra keepers as they mature.

Good luck!

Oops - I have 9 of them. Could be a long year again for me.

only 3 for me sandilands,caddy and heeney 5 if howe and pittard count being just over and under 500k

For what it's worth, my four are Sandilands, Beams, Ryder and Heeney. I also have Howe.

- Sandilands is a lock in my view. He's a proven premium at a very cheap price, and just frees up so much cash.

- Beams is the same. They're obviously both elevated injury risks, but they're cheap keepers rather than speculative mid-pricers.

- Ryder could be similar, but the average required of a top forward is up in the air this year, and Ryder may or may not exceed it whatever it is. I'm not 100% sure of picking him even if he's fit, although I think I will. He obviously gives ruck cover as well, which is a bonus.

- Heeney is probably the obvious breakout contender as I see it, in a fairly thin forward pool. His bye round is probably my main reservation on him, given he shares it with Dahl and Macrae.

If I thought there was a flock of good forward rookies, I'd probably be just fine cutting Ryder and/or Heeney out. I'm certainly wedded to them, unlike Sandi and Beams, who were my first players picked, along with Fyfe.

So "mid-priced" picks can obviously play a role, it's just that I think you need to have a good reason for each of them (given their success rate is historically low), and a clear view of how they fit into your side.

I came across an old comment from Court earlier today, that I thought was a good reminder. It was along the lines of: "people forget that every (genuine) mid-pricer needs upgrading".

That means that in a lot of cases they'll be taking you further away from your goal of completing a strong side, rather than getting you closer to it.

 

[Prochard]

For what it's worth, my four are Sandilands, Beams, Ryder and Heeney. I also have Howe.

- Sandilands is a lock in my view. He's a proven premium at a very cheap price, and just frees up so much cash.

- Beams is the same. They're obviously both elevated injury risks, but they're cheap keepers rather than speculative mid-pricers.

- Ryder could be similar, but the average required of a top forward is up in the air this year, and Ryder may or may not exceed it whatever it is. I'm not 100% sure of picking him even if he's fit, although I think I will. He obviously gives ruck cover as well, which is a bonus.

- Heeney is probably the obvious breakout contender as I see it, in a fairly thin forward pool. His bye round is probably my main reservation on him, given he shares it with Dahl and Macrae.

If I thought there was a flock of good forward rookies, I'd probably be just fine cutting Ryder and/or Heeney out. I'm certainly wedded to them, unlike Sandi and Beams, who were my first players picked, along with Fyfe.

So "mid-priced" picks can obviously play a role, it's just that I think you need to have a good reason for each of them (given their success rate is historically low), and a clear view of how they fit into your side.

I came across an old comment from Court earlier today, that I thought was a good reminder. It was along the lines of: "people forget that every (genuine) mid-pricer needs upgrading".

That means that in a lot of cases they'll be taking you further away from your goal of completing a strong side, rather than getting you closer to it.

For what it's worth, my four are Sandilands, Beams, Ryder and Heeney. I also have Howe.

- Sandilands is a lock in my view. He's a proven premium at a very cheap price, and just frees up so much cash.

- Beams is the same. They're obviously both elevated injury risks, but they're cheap keepers rather than speculative mid-pricers.

- Ryder could be similar, but the average required of a top forward is up in the air this year, and Ryder may or may not exceed it whatever it is. I'm not 100% sure of picking him even if he's fit, although I think I will. He obviously gives ruck cover as well, which is a bonus.

- Heeney is probably the obvious breakout contender as I see it, in a fairly thin forward pool. His bye round is probably my main reservation on him, given he shares it with Dahl and Macrae.

If I thought there was a flock of good forward rookies, I'd probably be just fine cutting Ryder and/or Heeney out. I'm certainly wedded to them, unlike Sandi and Beams, who were my first players picked, along with Fyfe.

So "mid-priced" picks can obviously play a role, it's just that I think you need to have a good reason for each of them (given their success rate is historically low), and a clear view of how they fit into your side.

I came across an old comment from Court earlier today, that I thought was a good reminder. It was along the lines of: "people forget that every (genuine) mid-pricer needs upgrading".

That means that in a lot of cases they'll be taking you further away from your goal of completing a strong side, rather than getting you closer to it.

Interesting how much you rate Howe as an option, I can see where you're coming from. I think Ramsay is a clear best 22 player who will play a shutdown role on medium-small defenders along with Maynard. Don't think Scharenberg will be ready to play HB, and there probably isn't a spot available in the forward line with Elliot/Fasolo/Mayne/WHE/Blair/Broomhead/Aish contending for the same spot.

So Howe will probably play a similar role as last year, playing on a medium sized forward allowing him to drift off and also intercept forward entries. Where the improvement comes from is probably more consistency in Howe's role throughout the season. Still a no from me tho.

Re Heeney, I currently have him in my team as the last selected forward. Although I do see obvious reasons why Heeney could breakout next year, I'm having strong doubts on its likelihood. By the sound of it, it seems like both Parker and Hannebury will be available round 1, so essentially the only void available is the half-tagging/half-offensive midfield role left by T Mitchell. Looking at the Sydney forward line, with Tippett in the rucks, Papley injured and Franklin playing up the ground, it really doesn't look rather thin and I can easily picture a scenario where Heeney moves to the forward line and resume his role from last year. If I'm Sydney's coach I might be more inclined to move Mills mid and leave Heeney forward as the backline is quite set. Also not very sold on Heeney's consistency and supercoach ability, his home and away season was consistently ordinary, he had shown no glimpse of midfield capability and all his tons were from kicking multiple goals. It appears that we are purely selecting him on the basis of his finals run, which really does seem like an incredibly small sample. I'd rather have a breakout candidate who is inconsistent but has multiple 110+ scores in the season before selecting him for a breakout year, as it is easier to increase average by improving consistency than doing so by becoming a much better player.

I'm not finding it easy to select forward rookies at the moment, especially the 170k+ ones, don't think they're worth selecting an alternative basement priced midfield or defense rookie. However if another option does present itself, Heeney is gone.

 

[Darkie]

Interesting how much you rate Howe as an option, I can see where you're coming from. I think Ramsay is a clear best 22 player who will play a shutdown role on medium-small defenders along with Maynard. Don't think Scharenberg will be ready to play HB, and there probably isn't a spot available in the forward line with Elliot/Fasolo/Mayne/WHE/Blair/Broomhead/Aish contending for the same spot.

So Howe will probably play a similar role as last year, playing on a medium sized forward allowing him to drift off and also intercept forward entries. Where the improvement comes from is probably more consistency in Howe's role throughout the season. Still a no from me tho.

Re Heeney, I currently have him in my team as the last selected forward. Although I do see obvious reasons why Heeney could breakout next year, I'm having strong doubts on its likelihood. By the sound of it, it seems like both Parker and Hannebury will be available round 1, so essentially the only void available is the half-tagging/half-offensive midfield role left by T Mitchell. Looking at the Sydney forward line, with Tippett in the rucks, Papley injured and Franklin playing up the ground, it really doesn't look rather thin and I can easily picture a scenario where Heeney moves to the forward line and resume his role from last year. If I'm Sydney's coach I might be more inclined to move Mills mid and leave Heeney forward as the backline is quite set. Also not very sold on Heeney's consistency and supercoach ability, his home and away season was consistently ordinary, he had shown no glimpse of midfield capability and all his tons were from kicking multiple goals. It appears that we are purely selecting him on the basis of his finals run, which really does seem like an incredibly small sample. I'd rather have a breakout candidate who is inconsistent but has multiple 110+ scores in the season before selecting him for a breakout year, as it is easier to increase average by improving consistency than doing so by becoming a much better player.

I'm not finding it easy to select forward rookies at the moment, especially the 170k+ ones, don't think they're worth selecting an alternative basement priced midfield or defense rookie. However if another option does present itself, Heeney is gone.

Thanks Pro - I appreciate your thoughts in Howe in particular. I picked him late last year without having watched a lot of our games, so the colour on setup is very handy. As I've said before, my strength is much more likely to be in the numbers/strategy side of SC than my in-depth knowledge of team's structures etc. The main things I like about Howe are his durability (three games missed since debuting in 2011, could have been one if he hadn't played cricket/frisbee last preseason), and the fact that if he plays the same role as mid-late 2016 he should average c. 100 but is priced at only. I don't think I've found another underpriced def premo, but I could happily make a switch if a better candidate popped up.

It's a good point re Mitchell's role not being a full-time offensive mid spot, although I guess he averaged 104 even in a mixed role (albeit he's clearly more established than Heeney). I'd be more bullish on Heeney if Parker was out altogether although Parker is also good up forward and I reckon they might ease him into the year/rest him up forward more, which should help increase the mid minutes available.

My understanding is that Heeney was a superstar mid as a junior, which gives me some comfort. In the 2014 U18s, he averaged 131 SC, and amongst mids was 4th for disposals (above average for contested, elite for uncontested), the second best kick of mids averaging 20+, and fourth for clearances. I gather he was the best mid in his draft year.

My thinking on Heeney is fairly similar to yours overall. He's probably a risk/reward type pick, with the main risk being that you need to sideways him, rather than downside in his average per se. I take some comfort from his performances as a mid at lower levels and in the finals, but we are essentially backing him to play more mid, and to score accordingly. He averaged 16.6 touches and 82 SC across the year, but 113 SC (with a min of 84) when he got 20+ touches, which I think should be a much more common occurrence if he plays mid. By way of reference, Mitchell got to 20 in all but two games last season (albeit he is a ball magnet, so a fairly generous comparison in a sense). JPK got to that level every game, and Parker managed it in all but three. I certainly don't expect Heeney to average around 113, but a number of attractive ingredients for a keeper level average are there at this stage.

I understand that this year's forward rookies could run pretty deep, with some high-priced options available there rather than just in the mids. I am normally skeptical about the higher-priced names because their breakevens are significantly higher, but I'm building my side in the basis I'll pick a few dearer options and will reassess as we get more clarity on the rookies, which for me never really happens until the NAB Cup.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Year of the Rooster 1st Draft:

D: Taylor Adams, JJ, HH, Jack Martin, A McGrath, M Scharenberg, Curtly Hampton, Zach Guthrie.
M: Danger (may change to more value oriented pick), Tommy Rockliff, Fyfe, Heppell, beams, Omeara, Swallow, Myers, Powell-Pepper, Jake Barrett, B Jarman.
R: Big Max, Big SAndi, Strnadica
F: Dahihaus, Ryder, Bennell, Heeny, McCarthy, McCluggage, A Black, Declan Kelity

Only 12 played last season...

 

[Eagling]

This is the first iteration of my team for 2017. Have at it, lads and lasses.

 

[Torress]

This is the first iteration of my team for 2017. Have at it, lads and lasses.

Mate appears you have the rookies that look promising at this stage. Luke Ryan could warrant selection at D6 (I know they are only in order of price)

Its funny, the forward prems look thin, we are spoilt for choice in our backline regarding premiums, but I also think think/feel this is where the better rooks will be once again so I like the structure straight up mate with 3 back premos and 3* forward premos (I don't like bennell pick FWIW)

Rance will be a little less popular to start with as last year, we really do have options down back - vince, adams, hodge, montagna, even james Kelly if you feel bold are all Defensive options for us this season! More supercoaches will start the doc too - what a season! Basically what this means is someone like a Rance will be a little less popular than last season, based purely on the fact there are more options. Haven't seen many pick Rance as a starter - I've picked him up last two seasons at around 450k so he will forever be an upgrade target for mine - impossible to 'pick' his hot patch but just feel his a better upgrade target.

Danger/Pendles/Fyfe/Beams - this will be popular combo and for good reason! All will deliver.

Dusty- tigs have already said dusty going forward more, they lost tyrone vickery, that might not sound like anything but he will be somewhat of a target in their F50 in my eyes - he is one of the best if not the best one on one players in the game. They will often try and exploit a miss match in my view and put dusty alone in forward 50. Just feel that with the new mids tigers adopted - human meatball and wrecking machine caddy he won't be in a position to get those easy touches as often. Absolute gun of a player, hoping like hell he ends up at Essendon after next season. I don't see him taking the next step for fantasy output - durable as they come though and shouldn't go backwards, i'd be more keen on cotch to bounce back next year with the support he will now have like when he had dan Jackson doing all the grunt stuff when he scored highly.
Bont - just can't argue with this one, besides the fact he just won't be that unique unfortunately. but if you look at the trajectory of his scoring year on year with the best of the best his numbers really stack up nicely. And what a player to watch cheer on too. As if he won't win a brownlow one year.

I would look at Rance, dusty and bennell, but premiums are very opinionated at this stage!

Each to their own in the ruck - appears ppl are going for a ruck combo involving - Gawn, Goldie, Grundy, Sandi and maybe big Stef Martin and Ryder.

I would have to pick atleast one of Goldie/Gawn - I feel these guys will both back up and be 1&2 for the ruck. Grundy could breakout again but i'd rather go proven and not stuff about here.

There you go bud, I've written a mini essay without actually saying much here!

 

[Darkie]

This is the first iteration of my team for 2017. Have at it, lads and lasses.

Looks pretty good to me Eagling. Your structure looks fairly balanced - maybe a touch heavy in the mids, but maybe not - and your injury risks don't look excessive to me.

My main comment would be that I see you have a fair bit of cash left over, and a few premiums that could be somewhat better, and certain yo safer, in my view. Personally, I'd use that cash to upgrade one or more of Adams (not reliable), Martin (not proven at elite mid level, may play more forward as Torress explained), Grundy (not yet a top ruck) or Bennell (very unreliable, albeit a high scorer). Grundy to Goldy and Dusty to JPK/Rocky (depending on injury risk appetite) would probably be the two things I'd look at first, and they actually wouldn't cost you much cash.

I think you're looking pretty good though, and you've got a nice stash to allow you to tinker. Good luck.

 

[Darkie]

Year of the Rooster 1st Draft:

D: Taylor Adams, JJ, HH, Jack Martin, A McGrath, M Scharenberg, Curtly Hampton, Zach Guthrie.
M: Danger (may change to more value oriented pick), Tommy Rockliff, Fyfe, Heppell, beams, Omeara, Swallow, Myers, Powell-Pepper, Jake Barrett, B Jarman.
R: Big Max, Big SAndi, Strnadica
F: Dahihaus, Ryder, Bennell, Heeny, McCarthy, McCluggage, A Black, Declan Kelity

Only 12 played last season...

Interesting side Beijing.

I think your final comment might be the most important one. You've obviously gone for a high number of discounted picks, which is good for value, but probably increases your injury risks significantly. You've obviously seen my comments above re midpriced players as well - essentially I apply a high hurdle on each.

With that in mind, a few additional thoughts:

- Your backline looks risky to me. Over the last three years your D1-D4 have averaged the following number of matches at AFL level: 15, 15, 19 and 15. I'd look to get a Rance or maybe Howe in there to make this a bit more solid.

- More generally, if you plan on taking a number of discounted injury risks into the season, I'd look at making your other premiums really durable, reliable picks. Guys like JPK and Pendles would be good choices.

- I am also avoiding Danger, for what that's worth.

- Your mids look a bit stacked to me, running your first rookie at M8. If the mid rookies end up being appealing, I'd look to cut one or more of your non-rookie mids. Personally I'd probably get rid of one of Swallow or JOM either way (I'd keep Swallow given his price). I'm not sure I love Heppell either - maybe Danger and Hep to Pendles and JPK would kill a few birds?

- I don't mind your rucks and forwards, so long as your injury risks aren't too high overall. If I had to trim the injury risks from those lines, I'd keep Sandi and trim Bennell.

Good luck.

 

[Eagling]

Mate appears you have the rookies that look promising at this stage. Luke Ryan could warrant selection at D6 (I know they are only in order of price)

Its funny, the forward prems look thin, we are spoilt for choice in our backline regarding premiums, but I also think think/feel this is where the better rooks will be once again so I like the structure straight up mate with 3 back premos and 3* forward premos (I don't like bennell pick FWIW)

Rance will be a little less popular to start with as last year, we really do have options down back - vince, adams, hodge, montagna, even james Kelly if you feel bold are all Defensive options for us this season! More supercoaches will start the doc too - what a season! Basically what this means is someone like a Rance will be a little less popular than last season, based purely on the fact there are more options. Haven't seen many pick Rance as a starter - I've picked him up last two seasons at around 450k so he will forever be an upgrade target for mine - impossible to 'pick' his hot patch but just feel his a better upgrade target.

Danger/Pendles/Fyfe/Beams - this will be popular combo and for good reason! All will deliver.

Dusty- tigs have already said dusty going forward more, they lost tyrone vickery, that might not sound like anything but he will be somewhat of a target in their F50 in my eyes - he is one of the best if not the best one on one players in the game. They will often try and exploit a miss match in my view and put dusty alone in forward 50. Just feel that with the new mids tigers adopted - human meatball and wrecking machine caddy he won't be in a position to get those easy touches as often. Absolute gun of a player, hoping like hell he ends up at Essendon after next season. I don't see him taking the next step for fantasy output - durable as they come though and shouldn't go backwards, i'd be more keen on cotch to bounce back next year with the support he will now have like when he had dan Jackson doing all the grunt stuff when he scored highly.
Bont - just can't argue with this one, besides the fact he just won't be that unique unfortunately. but if you look at the trajectory of his scoring year on year with the best of the best his numbers really stack up nicely. And what a player to watch cheer on too. As if he won't win a brownlow one year.

I would look at Rance, dusty and bennell, but premiums are very opinionated at this stage!

Each to their own in the ruck - appears ppl are going for a ruck combo involving - Gawn, Goldie, Grundy, Sandi and maybe big Stef Martin and Ryder.

I would have to pick atleast one of Goldie/Gawn - I feel these guys will both back up and be 1&2 for the ruck. Grundy could breakout again but i'd rather go proven and not stuff about here.

There you go bud, I've written a mini essay without actually saying much here!

Looks pretty good to me Eagling. Your structure looks fairly balanced - maybe a touch heavy in the mids, but maybe not - and your injury risks don't look excessive to me.

My main comment would be that I see you have a fair bit of cash left over, and a few premiums that could be somewhat better, and certain yo safer, in my view. Personally, I'd use that cash to upgrade one or more of Adams (not reliable), Martin (not proven at elite mid level, may play more forward as Torress explained), Grundy (not yet a top ruck) or Bennell (very unreliable, albeit a high scorer). Grundy to Goldy and Dusty to JPK/Rocky (depending on injury risk appetite) would probably be the two things I'd look at first, and they actually wouldn't cost you much cash.

I think you're looking pretty good though, and you've got a nice stash to allow you to tinker. Good luck.

Interestingly, Rance and Bennell are two premiums that were last picked, and essentially there as placeholders. I'm certainly willing to switch them out - and with $300k, I've got plenty of flexibility to do so.

I went set and forget in the rucks last year - Goldy and Martin. That didn't work out, so I'm going to take a gamble on starting with Sandi with the plan to be upgrading him midseason. Also, Grundy, who I'm hoping breaks out this year, might not be as popular as Gawnstein this year, so I'll get somewhat of a POD.

I am aware of the possibility that Dusty goes forward more, and I don't think that has to be a bad thing. He has the ability to score goals which I believe will o***et any loss of possessions. Also, he's pretty durable and approaching elite scoring levels.

I am tempted by Rocky and all the cheaper options in the mids, but this year I'm trying to go a bit safer with some of my picks. Having said that, JPK is a good option, and will probably be a big POD.

Last season I made big errors with my structure. I started lots of unproven midpricers to allow me to get pseudo-premiums as well as dirt cheap rookies and I left myself with no cash in reserve. This time I'm trying to make sure I have plenty of room to maneuver prior to Round 1.

 

[Prochard]

Interestingly, Rance and Bennell are two premiums that were last picked, and essentially there as placeholders. I'm certainly willing to switch them out - and with $300k, I've got plenty of flexibility to do so.

I went set and forget in the rucks last year - Goldy and Martin. That didn't work out, so I'm going to take a gamble on starting with Sandi with the plan to be upgrading him midseason. Also, Grundy, who I'm hoping breaks out this year, might not be as popular as Gawnstein this year, so I'll get somewhat of a POD.

I am aware of the possibility that Dusty goes forward more, and I don't think that has to be a bad thing. He has the ability to score goals which I believe will o***et any loss of possessions. Also, he's pretty durable and approaching elite scoring levels.

I am tempted by Rocky and all the cheaper options in the mids, but this year I'm trying to go a bit safer with some of my picks. Having said that, JPK is a good option, and will probably be a big POD.

Last season I made big errors with my structure. I started lots of unproven midpricers to allow me to get pseudo-premiums as well as dirt cheap rookies and I left myself with no cash in reserve. This time I'm trying to make sure I have plenty of room to maneuver prior to Round 1.

I don't think Martin has had much progress in his scoring ability over the years. His gradual rise in average is a result of increased fitness and more midfield minutes, so playing more forward can only hurt him. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Torress]

Ok Eagling,

I will throw my current lineup.. absolutely in experimental mode atm (no danger!)

D - Laird, Adams, JJ, hodge, rooks - ryan, newman, ?, ?

M - Sloane, Fyfe, Tictch, Cotch, Jobe Watson, Murphy, Beams, Swallow - myers, powell pepper, freeman

R - Gawn, Sandi, Strnadica

F - Dahlhaus, Heeney, ryder, pickett, turner, black, tim smith, bowes

66k remaining

plan of attack is to premium up the forward and backlines first. Hopefully the mids/sandi can score enough until I can bring in some of the big boys - and i'd be prepared to swap out a jobe/swallow/murphy to do so if timing/cash was right.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Interesting side Beijing.

I think your final comment might be the most important one. You've obviously gone for a high number of discounted picks, which is good for value, but probably increases your injury risks significantly. You've obviously seen my comments above re midpriced players as well - essentially I apply a high hurdle on each.

With that in mind, a few additional thoughts:

- Your backline looks risky to me. Over the last three years your D1-D4 have averaged the following number of matches at AFL level: 15, 15, 19 and 15. I'd look to get a Rance or maybe Howe in there to make this a bit more solid.

- More generally, if you plan on taking a number of discounted injury risks into the season, I'd look at making your other premiums really durable, reliable picks. Guys like JPK and Pendles would be good choices.

- I am also avoiding Danger, for what that's worth.

- Your mids look a bit stacked to me, running your first rookie at M8. If the mid rookies end up being appealing, I'd look to cut one or more of your non-rookie mids. Personally I'd probably get rid of one of Swallow or JOM either way (I'd keep Swallow given his price). I'm not sure I love Heppell either - maybe Danger and Hep to Pendles and JPK would kill a few birds?

- I don't mind your rucks and forwards, so long as your injury risks aren't too high overall. If I had to trim the injury risks from those lines, I'd keep Sandi and trim Bennell.

Good luck.

Hmmm. You're right on every count... but I'm pretty sure this one will gve me the most fun. Depends on Rookies and health too. Possible JOM is expunged for a rookie and I'm dying for an excuse to get Mitchell Swans...er I mean Hawkes in too so Hep might get rubbed out.

But mostly worried about Ryder* - feels like I almost get trapped with a Fwruck each year... I can only remember him not being useless for a string of about 6 or so games a loooooong time ago.

* just checked his stats... some good stuff there actually. I probably had him in 2015.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Think I'll take a stab at it before the New Year:

DEF: Montagna, Rance, Adams, Laird, Scharenberg, Berry (Newman, Ryan)
MID: Danger, Pendles, JPK, Treloar, Fyfe, Beams, McGrath, Myers (Barrett, Pickett, Graham)
RUCK: Goldy, Sandi (Witts)
FWS: Dahl, Macrae, McCarthy, McCluggage, Balic, S. Bolton (D. Cameron, Eddy)

Not sure about rookies yet.
Starting combo for the DEF could change with the pre-season games. Adams most likely to drop out with his injury history.
Like having Sandi to complement Goldy, means I can spend more across the squad especially with my mids.
Prefer to start 5 (what I feel to be "genuine") premiums in the midfield plus Beams who I feel to be the best of the discounted players.
Not many discounted players as I feel some of them are injury prone and awkwardly priced.

 

[yakka]

first crack not sure on initial structures but sure this team will likely change..