Position Ruck Discussion

[NT.Thunder]

Trades and cash generation is a moot point, because you still have to do that elsewhere. Steven may be a keeper while NN needs to get upgraded vs Gawn keeper and forward rookie upgraded.

I'd say it's more likely than not that at least one of them drops to 120 at some point. Well done to them maintaining their average but it's gotta be bloody difficult to do it again for the whole season.

Gawn was averaging 118.6 at round 8 in 2019. Cripps or another mid premo can do that so the C loop can be filled by someone else. Iff Gawn repeats that and NN can stay on the park and average 100 in that time then it shouldn't be too difficult to upgrade him. In this scenario you don't lose points from the captaincy loop, and the cost to upgrade is far less than 240k.

Trades and cash generation are the most important part of the game. The thing with trades is that you have plenty more options in lines other than the rucks for a fallen premium. You already have said that it's likely you'll need to upgrade NN to Gawn. IMO Gawn is more likely to hold his average then NN is to stay on the park, in fact I wouldn't be suprised to see NN not even make round 1. If he does line up round 1 who is your cover for NN in case he does miss, you already compromise a forward position if you choose a R/F cover and rookies won't help much this season either. If you don't have cash to get NN to Gawn then you need to take a 0 or trade to someone else that starts a vicous Ruck trade circle. Believe me, I've been there and it's a sure way to drop in rankings or burn trades.

You also say that Steven may be a keeper. Steven may not even be best 22 for Geelong.

Anyway, that's the good thing about this game, we all see it differently which makes it interesting.

 

[freowho]

Trades and cash generation is a moot point, because you still have to do that elsewhere. Steven may be a keeper while NN needs to get upgraded vs Gawn keeper and forward rookie upgraded.

I'd say it's more likely than not that at least one of them drops to 120 at some point. Well done to them maintaining their average but it's gotta be bloody difficult to do it again for the whole season.

Gawn was averaging 118.6 at round 8 in 2019. Cripps or another mid premo can do that so the C loop can be filled by someone else. Iff Gawn repeats that and NN can stay on the park and average 100 in that time then it shouldn't be too difficult to upgrade him. In this scenario you don't lose points from the captaincy loop, and the cost to upgrade is far less than 240k.

On any other line you have a reasonable argument but it is so hard to cover the rucks if they go sour. If Gawn is 20ppg ahead of NicNat then Gawn is still a win and if Gawn is averaging 120 he is likely to be around $600k and that's still a difficult upgrade.
Your bog standard upgrade has you using 2 trades to go from a cash cow averaging 60 to a premium averaging 105. 45 point improvement.
NicNat to Gawn has you using 2 trades to go from 100 to 120. 20 point improvement.
If you think it's 100 (NicNat) vs 110 (Gawn) then it 's probably a better argument.

 

[Agent 47]

Gawn being 20ppg ahead of NN is only a win if the leftover 240k doesn't result in a greater than 20 point improvement elsewhere in the team. Who do you have at F6? Rankine? King? Not convinced they'll average more than 50.

Could probably upgrade NN and an almost premo like Roberton with just one rookie downgrade and 3 trades since NN would be just 100k less. You save a trade or you upgrade early.

I wouldn't write off Ceglar as decent ruck cover if Big Boy is going to continue to play down back. His numbers without McEvoy in the team or playing defence are actually good enough for a starting forward position. Could start him as cover for Grawndy even.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Gawn being 20ppg ahead of NN is only a win if the leftover 240k doesn't result in a greater than 20 point improvement elsewhere in the team. Who do you have at F6? Rankine? King? Not convinced they'll average more than 50.

Could probably upgrade NN and an almost premo like Roberton with just one rookie downgrade and 3 trades since NN would be just 100k less. You save a trade or you upgrade early.

I wouldn't write off Ceglar as decent ruck cover if Big Boy is going to continue to play down back. His numbers without McEvoy in the team or playing defence are actually good enough for a starting forward position. Could start him as cover for Grawndy even.

Probably a comment that'll bite me on the was, but Ceglar will never see the inside of my SC team.

 

[Spots]

Gawn being 20ppg ahead of NN is only a win if the leftover 240k doesn't result in a greater than 20 point improvement elsewhere in the team. Who do you have at F6? Rankine? King? Not convinced they'll average more than 50.

Could probably upgrade NN and an almost premo like Roberton with just one rookie downgrade and 3 trades since NN would be just 100k less. You save a trade or you upgrade early.

I wouldn't write off Ceglar as decent ruck cover if Big Boy is going to continue to play down back. His numbers without McEvoy in the team or playing defence are actually good enough for a starting forward position. Could start him as cover for Grawndy even.

I couldn’t agree more with what you are saying... finally some commonsense. Of course you can trade to upgrade to one of Gawn and Grundy just as you can any other premium.

the problem though is the level of certainty that NN can stay on the park.. with only one spot for cover it’s a fair penalty when/if he misses a game or two
EDIT: the same applies to Gawndy of course but the last two years they have been faultless

 

[Zim^zuM]

But this is exactly what everyone said last year and then both Gawn and Grundy backed it up.
Now with an extra year of premium scoring we are questioning again whether they can both back it up.
It’s not Just 20 points, Its potentially 20ppg plus any additional C/VC bonus and I’d probably guess last season I would’ve used Grundy or Gawn for close to 90% of captains scores. Then it’s the trades and cash generation needed if they do indeed maintain a 130 average and then it’s cover needed when NN misses games.
I just feel this exact same argument comes up every preseason.
What if? Could’ve? Should’ve? It’s still a game of probability for me, very simple, make decisions based on what we know and not what we hope.
Just me though. It’s easier for me to justify and accept this decision even if it doesn’t work then to go the other way and it fail.

This.

Avearges can be a misleading amd crap stat to look at in some cases. One random low score, random high scores can give you misleading info. Last preseason we had the same convos and concerns. Only difference is now we have the benifit of 2019.

So with that, you cant just base their captains worth at what you think they will average. How many times we got to vc one or the other at 150+. Cry that we didnt and get the 150+ with the other anyways. All it takes is a few of those and you well and truly blow steven vs rookie (for the few weeks you play the rookie before trading) out of the water.

Last season getting them cheaper after the bye didnt exist. Getting them at a discount didnt really apply all season. Easier to work your squad around having them from round 1, then bringing them in later.

Loose change is also a hard one to figure out. Its likely change left over, or needing funds for one player can affect 3,4 selections in your team.

Out of interest what was last years winners ruck set up?

 

[Zim^zuM]

Gawn being 20ppg ahead of NN is only a win if the leftover 240k doesn't result in a greater than 20 point improvement elsewhere in the team. Who do you have at F6? Rankine? King? Not convinced they'll average more than 50.

Could probably upgrade NN and an almost premo like Roberton with just one rookie downgrade and 3 trades since NN would be just 100k less. You save a trade or you upgrade early.

I wouldn't write off Ceglar as decent ruck cover if Big Boy is going to continue to play down back. His numbers without McEvoy in the team or playing defence are actually good enough for a starting forward position. Could start him as cover for Grawndy even.

But how long are you playing King, Rankine? 5,6 weeks?

The way i see it is if you pick someone else as a R2 be prepared to keep them all season. If you think you want to trade them in at some stage then start them. You need to stuff around way too much to trade them in. You likely need 150-200k to get them in. That trade could be used to trade a rookie to a decent final 22 player (probably a 50-60 point win for that week) if you already have both rucks.

 

[Spots]

I hadn't really considered him until now. They are some big numbers he put up in games where he got 30+ hitouts

If only Lycett was still R/F, he’d be the perfect cover for my NicNat selection!

 

[TigerTime]

If only Lycett was still R/F, he’d be the perfect cover for my NicNat selection!

Sure would. At the moment that's my main concern with NicNat. Could go with Naismith at R3 as he is apparently tracking well for Rd 1. But that's half the money saved from Gawn gone if we head down that path, and he's injury prone and not a strong scorer anyway. It's looking like the safety of Gawndy for me.

 

[Beg2Differ]

Generally look for value in the rucks however this year I am more inclined than ever to spend big on the set and forget Grawndy. Having said that Sammy J might be hard to resist if he shows any form in the preseason; $350k could make a big difference elsewhere.

 

[Bomber18]

I think it has to be Gawn/Grundy in the rucks unless a real cash cow ruck emerges (ie Naismith/Jacobs) who can generate at least 120k odd.

NN is too expensive to be a cash cow at 457k so I’m not a fan of him as a starter. I guess the only way I see NN working is if he goes at 110 avg odd early season and then you can trade him to Gawn if they become a similar price or if NN gets injured/gets rested. It seems WCE always limit NN’s TOG given his injury history so I doubt he gets to a 110 avg this season

 

[baz_machine]

Last Year
Grundy - Interrupted pre season
Gawn - Melbourne traded for Preuss
Both coming off historical good numbers that HAD NEVER BEEN REPEATED

So I selected Goldstien and Lewis Pierce....

This year, unless they are injured, there is no way I'm not selecting them. Collingwood don't have a backup (Cox never will be), still have a great midfield and Melbourne can't be that bad again. I see very little downside risk in either of them and I see plenty of downside risk in literally every other option.

 

[Impromptu]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1223132086132826113

 

[OnTopBar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1223132086132826113

I really hope the big fella is ok, enjoy watching him play.

 

[Santoz]

Bigfooty going berserk over possible Gawn knee injury.

 

[Lost In The Sky]

Hope it’s not serious. One of my favourite non-Eagles players to watch.

 

[Lost In The Sky]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1223140771823411202

 

[Santoz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1223140771823411202

Haha, what would he know?

PCL & season it is then unfortunately.

 

[PC]

I got this itch that Gawn will drop for some reason this year...nothing to back it up and he is in my team atm.

My itch is back again...

 

[Bermi]

UPDATE: Max suffers 'moderate' knee strain, still hopeful of R1
Triple All-Australian Max Gawn will miss up to five weeks of pre-season training

https://www.afl.com.au/news/368650/update-max-suffers-moderate-knee-strain-still-hopeful-of-r1