Strategy 2023: Round 11 Trades

[frosty1]

The counter argument is that he's a talented kid whose progression from 100 AVG to >105 AVG is a natural progression with or without Touk in the team. One who scored >125 four of the last 8 rounds last year even with Touk in the team, and these last couple of weeks were just his "floor" performances.

A lot depends on why you brought him in, and what you were trying to achieve, but if you brought him in for bye coverage then casting him aside before that's been provided is being reactive to short term fluctuations in scoring. If you brought him in to make cash, then he's at peak cash and it's time to go.

It's a different scenario for everyone. Sometimes the consensus decision (in this case preserving money by trading) is the right one. But other times it makes sense to go the other way. Only you can make that call for your team.

(Note; I don't own him, so have no real opinion.)

 

[inwhiterooms]

I can turn Oliver, JVR and Cincotta into Neale, Daicos and Baldwin, with $700 left. I'm taking that as a sign.

Nick Daicos? Love those moves if so.

 

[Miss_Brightside]

The counter argument is that he's a talented kid whose progression from 100 AVG to >105 AVG is a natural progression with or without Touk in the team. One who scored >125 four of the last 8 rounds last year even with Touk in the team, and these last couple of weeks were just his "floor" performances.

A lot depends on why you brought him in, and what you were trying to achieve, but if you brought him in for bye coverage then casting him aside before that's been provided is being reactive to short term fluctuations in scoring. If you brought him in to make cash, then he's at peak cash and it's time to go.

It's a different scenario for everyone. Sometimes the consensus decision (in this case preserving money by trading) is the right one. But other times it makes sense to go the other way. Only you can make that call for your team.

(Note; I don't own him, so have no real opinion.)

@frosty1, thank you for your advice. I really appreciate it.💛 I have a lot to weigh up. 😀

 

[Peter56]

No one is mentioning Darcy Moore $541K def 3R avg of 124 and 5R Ave of 114? Passes the eye test.

 

[MightyTiges]

Really peeved at not bringing in Humphrey this week (R10). Had him in all week, but when W.Phillips was named, kept him and cancelled the trade, probably still should of traded Cincotta to Humphrey instead.

With this weeks trades, thinking of going Oliver to Merrett or Macrae and then maybe S.Ryan or W.Phillips to Humphrey, yeah it feels abit wrong getting Humphrey now that his price went up another 70k odd, but his output and role just look too good, and with a b-e of -54, his price will skyrocket, dpp mid/fwd is good too. Thoughts?

 

[frosty1]

No one is mentioning Darcy Moore $541K def 3R avg of 124 and 5R Ave of 114? Passes the eye test.

Feels like he's at the top end of his price window based on his history, but if he can sustain it then he'd be a great POD.

(This had me looking at other FSs who were seen as guaranteed rolled gold guns coming into the league. If you'd brought Joe Daniher 7 weeks ago for 330k, coming off a 27, you have ridden a 103 average and 160k cash grab across that period, even with a low of 68. If my sums in my head are right that's more points than Luke Ryan in the same period, when Ryan had been averaging 130 to that point! This game does my head in sometimes)

 

[TJeagles]

Is it worth burning a trade on Cowan +$30k > Weddle? Struggling to find any cash gen on my team. Weddle gives me an extra live body and potentially makes $100k

 

[Montyjnr]

Really peeved at not bringing in Humphrey this week (R10). Had him in all week, but when W.Phillips was named, kept him and cancelled the trade, probably still should of traded Cincotta to Humphrey instead.

With this weeks trades, thinking of going Oliver to Merrett or Macrae and then maybe S.Ryan or W.Phillips to Humphrey, yeah it feels abit wrong getting Humphrey now that his price went up another 70k odd, but his output and role just look too good, and with a b-e of -54, his price will skyrocket, dpp mid/fwd is good too. Thoughts?

He's probably only worth it if you think he can continue to average 85+ in his new role.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Anyone considering holding Oliver with a bulk of his missed games during the byes? If there was ever a time to hold a premium that Long it would be now. With 14 trades left I'm getting the feeling trading Oliver out means he won't be back in my team until 2024.

 

[NT.Thunder]

The counter argument is that he's a talented kid whose progression from 100 AVG to >105 AVG is a natural progression with or without Touk in the team. One who scored >125 four of the last 8 rounds last year even with Touk in the team, and these last couple of weeks were just his "floor" performances.

A lot depends on why you brought him in, and what you were trying to achieve, but if you brought him in for bye coverage then casting him aside before that's been provided is being reactive to short term fluctuations in scoring. If you brought him in to make cash, then he's at peak cash and it's time to go.

It's a different scenario for everyone. Sometimes the consensus decision (in this case preserving money by trading) is the right one. But other times it makes sense to go the other way. Only you can make that call for your team.

(Note; I don't own him, so have no real opinion.)

Yeah I agree. People, me included, need to revisit their earlier narrative on why you traded him in a few weeks back because I'd be surprised if making a quick buck was more popular than likely season keeper or even just bye coverage.

 

[OnTopBar]

Anyone considering holding Oliver with a bulk of his missed games during the byes? If there was ever a time to hold a premium that Long it would be now. With 14 trades left I'm getting the feeling trading Oliver out means he won't be back in my team until 2024.

I thought the same 2 years ago when I held Jelly through the byes and was taught the lesson that you still have 1 less premo than everyone else.

I could be wrong here (please correct me if so) but holding a premo on the bench over the byes is really no different than holding him during the regular season, about the only advantage I could see is that if the bench coverage you have for him throws a poor score then that drops off. The other disadvantage is that, for example, if everyone else is fielding 19 players and you're fielding 18 then you have to take the poorest score whilst everyone else drops it off, 19 v 20, 20 v 21 and so on.

 

[freowho]

Apart from a handful of players it's hard to see who the premo's are this year.
I don't have English but can't justify trading him for Darcy or Marshall with his injury history.
Need a couple of defenders and a few mids but it feels like pin the tail on the donkey.
I was tossing up between Stewart and Zerrett last week. Guess which one I picked. 😠
Zerrett's probably still a decent pick this week. And maybe go early on Ford.

 

[frosty1]

I thought the same 2 years ago when I held Jelly through the byes and was taught the lesson that you still have 1 less premo than everyone else.

I could be wrong here (please correct me if so) but holding a premo on the bench over the byes is really no different than holding him during the regular season, about the only advantage I could see is that if the bench coverage you have for him throws a poor score then that drops off. The other disadvantage is that, for example, if everyone else is fielding 19 players and you're fielding 18 then you have to take the poorest score whilst everyone else drops it off, 19 v 20, 20 v 21 and so on.

It kind of depends on your team shape too

He could still conceivably be back for the Rd15 bye round after the Melb Rd14 bye. I assume everyone will be running pretty high numbers of "premos" and faux premos in Rd13. So depending on your structure you might only lose (say) 40 points that week over what you had planned (eg 85 from your M8 vs 125 that you had planned from Oliver.As far as I can tell few are running Geelong premo mids, and only a subset have Rowell/Anderson.

So that brings you to Rd12, where teams are possibly heavy on Brayshaw, Steele, Neale etc. In that case it probably hurts and it might cost you 100 points vs plan.

Rd11 it's definitely costing you vs plan, but we'd all hold a 1 week I think.

In my team it will hurt a lot this week, but I'm not heavy for Rd 12 midd (as a strategy, which saw me miss Brayshaw 3 weeks ago ).

I reckon I hold. But it's going to mean scouring for some cheap bench/on field depth this week with my cash reserves, and might end up ruining my team when I turn around at Rd 17 and wonder why Hugh Greenwood, Nat Fyfe and Matthew Kennedy are in my team.....

 

[Chumpion]

Oliver could end up one serious POD for the back end of the season.. if most trade him out I'm not sure how many will have the cash/trades to get him into the team once he's back!

 

[Maccas marvels]

Just thinking, will Petracca score better or worse without Oliver by his side? 🤔

No real data to help us with that question, Oliver only missed one game in past 6 seasons…
i Think it can only help his mid minutes ( might impact his dpp status that many were hoping for)…
still $650 k or thereabouts, I’m looking else where for scoring value if I need to trade Oliver…

 

[Chumpion]

Yeah I agree. People, me included, need to revisit their earlier narrative on why you traded him in a few weeks back because I'd be surprised if making a quick buck was more popular than likely season keeper or even just bye coverage.

I doubt anyone had the cash as the #1 reason, but given his BE and scoring I don't think anyone had him losing cash either.. it was probably a case of:
1. He scores ok, around 100-110.. not quite keeper but holds his price till his bye and then can be flipped to someone coming off the round 12 by with some change to be made.
2. He keeps scoring amazing, gets to $700k and then can either be flipped for good cash gen or held till Touk is back and can be assessed then.

Probably is, neither of those things happened!

 

[Maccas marvels]

We all know what Yoda says about attachment - it’s the shadow of greed. Gotta butcher them all eventually. There are no rookie keepers.

Will Brodie says hi from last year…..

 

[Maccas marvels]

Oliver could end up one serious POD for the back end of the season.. if most trade him out I'm not sure how many will have the cash/trades to get him into the team once he's back!

I’ve got a couple of plans just in case….if I trade him out this week…
with Ashcroft making crazy cash past 2 weeks I could look at Ashcroft to Oliver by round 15 which would be amazing….might need to add $100k to his price ….

 

[OnTopBar]

It kind of depends on your team shape too

He could still conceivably be back for the Rd15 bye round after the Melb Rd14 bye. I assume everyone will be running pretty high numbers of "premos" and faux premos in Rd13. So depending on your structure you might only lose (say) 40 points that week over what you had planned (eg 85 from your M8 vs 125 that you had planned from Oliver.As far as I can tell few are running Geelong premo mids, and only a subset have Rowell/Anderson.

So that brings you to Rd12, where teams are possibly heavy on Brayshaw, Steele, Neale etc. In that case it probably hurts and it might cost you 100 points vs plan.

Rd11 it's definitely costing you vs plan, but we'd all hold a 1 week I think.

In my team it will hurt a lot this week, but I'm not heavy for Rd 12 midd (as a strategy, which saw me miss Brayshaw 3 weeks ago ).

I reckon I hold. But it's going to mean scouring for some cheap bench/on field depth this week with my cash reserves, and might end up ruining my team when I turn around at Rd 17 and wonder why Hugh Greenwood, Nat Fyfe and Matthew Kennedy are in my team.....

There's so many permutations and combinations at play here.

Bye structure
Targets with high BE's
Potential DPP's
Rookies scoring well, making them hard to trade out
Bench rookies that aren't scoring or playing
The potential to release 130k of Oliver's cash (related to the previous point)
The need to upgrade
Running out of trades.

The knack will be trying to navigate through all of that and come out smelling like roses, as opposed to the way I've been going and smelling like piece of

 

[OnTopBar]

Will Brodie says high from last year…..

Not to mention a certain Mr Daicos