Strategy 2023: Round 15 Trades

[Chumpion]

Tracs 3 lowest scores this season is 95,97,97. The rest 100+. Pretty good for hot and cold

Always comes down to where you draw your line - of all his 13 scores to date, he has 7 scores of 110 or lower (97, 97, 103, 110, 104, 103, 95), and 3 monster scores (167, 148, 159). plus a couple of nice middle scores (119, 122). For a $650k spend I'd say that's the definition of hot and cold. you are more likely to get a <110 score than a >120 score.

Everyone has their own definitions, but 7 scores between 95 and 110 for what is meant to be an uber premium is pretty cold for mine.

 

[Chumpion]

The way I see it mate I'll get a Humphrey 70 by holding and Trac very likely to be kept to 90-100 in woeful conditions with a Blicavs/MOC hanging off him all night, Clarry makes back that small margin over Trac from next week onwards for mine, often you find once match fit games missed like this can actually help the player, Clarry hasnt been getting smashed in every contest for a while now most of the core should be pretty fresh just gotta build that fitness base back up again and he has 10 days between games now to get himself right.

If Trac would get me to 18 It would a no brainer but just isn't the scenario I am faced with.

Yeah completely agree - sound reasoning, hope it pays off for you!

 

[PC]

Always comes down to where you draw your line - of all his 13 scores to date, he has 7 scores of 110 or lower (97, 97, 103, 110, 104, 103, 95), and 3 monster scores (167, 148, 159). plus a couple of nice middle scores (119, 122). For a $650k spend I'd say that's the definition of hot and cold. you are more likely to get a <110 score than a >120 score.

Everyone has their own definitions, but 7 scores between 95 and 110 for what is meant to be an uber premium is pretty cold for mine.

Who are the uber prems this year by your definition @Chumpion?

 

[Jandrews]

Has anyone else noticed the SC Gold Optimiser tool is making impossible switches?
I have Sheezel in FWD with no DEF/FWD Swing player located in the backline. Upon clicling Optimise it is putting Sheezel into DEF and making way for this by moving Day from DEF to MID and Roberts from MID to FWD.

This is a pretty big flaw as you can gain some big advantages if it optimises in your favour.

 

[NDD]

Looking at a couple of scenarios:

Option 1:

Briggs to Brayshaw
Ford to Maric
Sheezal to Yeo

Leaves me with $175K to trade Cogs to Clarry next week or following week. Down to 4 trades after that.

Option 2:

Briggs to Trac
Foord to Maric
Sheezal to Ridley

Next week or two would need to downgrade Cincotta to a rookie to upgrade to Clarry.

Option 3:

Keep Briggs as R3 for his cash gen

Ford to Maric
Cogs to Brayshaw
Cincotta to Yeo / moves Day to M8

Any thoughts, as it feels like my season hangs on the line with these trades.

Sheezal is a keeper I wouldn't do that trade neither are much better and he will get games

 

[Wheedus]

I could never bring myself to choose Trac at the expense of Oliver.

Even with the extra week.

Just been burnt by him too many times.

This^

@Shaunpro1 I'd be sitting tight and getting Clarry. He's actually a POD and a much better one. Obviously a lot will trade him (back) in over the next rounds but with Trac in 30% of the Top1% and Clarry in only 13%, Clarry is probably gonna give you that upside. Not sure about the teams ahead of you and how many have Trac but the beauty of being so highly ranked is you can check out each team individually and work out where you can gain some ground. My gut on this one says stick to your plans and play the patient game

 

[jaca]

Has anyone else noticed the SC Gold Optimiser tool is making impossible switches?
I have Sheezel in FWD with no DEF/FWD Swing player located in the backline. Upon clicling Optimise it is putting Sheezel into DEF and making way for this by moving Day from DEF to MID and Roberts from MID to FWD.

This is a pretty big flaw as you can gain some big advantages if it optimises in your favour.

You can do it via trading too.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

Looking at a few of scenario's. This will leave me with just 2 trades left

Steele & Ford > Trac & Robertson - $20k left

Steele & Ford > N Martin & Robertson - 144k left

Steele & Ford > DC & Keays - 11k left

 

[jaca]

So I think i'll need to do a second trade this week to bank more cash to allow TT and Clarry in next week. Looks like I'll go Cincotta to Dewar to give me the extra flexibility around who my boost can be next week.

 

[xanderdom]

Looking at a few of scenario's. This will leave me with just 2 trades left

Steele & Ford > Trac & Robertson - $20k left

Steele & Ford > N Martin & Robertson - 144k left

Steele & Ford > DC & Keays - 11k left

I'm just counting down to 5:30 AEST for team sheet announcements. If Parish is returning this week, how does his presence affect Nic Martin on field. I won't be able to do a deep dive into stats and heat maps until later on today, but it's something to consider before going down that route - which I'm sure most of you already know.

 

[Nothing]

Looking at a few of scenario's. This will leave me with just 2 trades left

Steele & Ford > Trac & Robertson - $20k left

Steele & Ford > N Martin & Robertson - 144k left

Steele & Ford > DC & Keays - 11k left

Is Steele out? If he's not I think you have to keep with him rather thatn leaving only 2 trades.
If he's out, then I look the flexibility of DC and Keays (assuming you don't have Briggs as ruck cover).

 

[Shaunpro1]

Do you have any concern over Serong's "lingering" injury concerns? Left training early last week and JL has mentioned he's dealing with a leg/ankle problem but his form doesn't seem to indicate it. If it wasn't for poor efficiency and clangers last week, he was on track for 150.

I'm also trying to think about the points lost vs points gained. Petracca did 120 after the bye last year and Oliver did 132. Every chance that Clarry's fitness takes a few games to build up, or he comes out flying and it ends in tears. Conversely, same thing with Petracca if I fade him.

I'm just really hoping Johnson plays at this point so I can avoid the headache and finish my team next round.

I just think Serong had a couple stinkers by foot really, Darcy being a better tap ruck and giving him more space to dispose of the footy efficiently I think helps aswell. Ankle can't be too bad if you're still transition running and getting it 30 plus times every week.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

Is Steele out? If he's not I think you have to keep with him rather thatn leaving only 2 trades.
If he's out, then I look the flexibility of DC and Keays (assuming you don't have Briggs as ruck cover).

No, no news on Steele that I know of. Just can't handle another week of his lacklustre scoring.

If I was to choose an alternative of Steele, it would have to be out of Cogs, or Sheezel, for which I would lean to Cogs because I need that D6.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

I'm just counting down to 5:30 AEST for team sheet announcements. If Parish is returning this week, how does his presence affect Nic Martin on field. I won't be able to do a deep dive into stats and heat maps until later on today, but it's something to consider before going down that route - which I'm sure most of you already know.

Great point, and there is Shiel and Setterfield to come back as well.

 

[HimothyTaranto]

I just think Serong had a couple stinkers by foot really, Darcy being a better tap ruck and giving him more space to dispose of the footy efficiently I think helps aswell. Ankle can't be too bad if you're still transition running and getting it 30 plus times every week.

Thanks Shaun. Good luck on your run home!

 

[PC]

Oliver is only a POD you want if he comes back. Hurts week on week if he doesn't.

 

[Shaunpro1]

This^

@Shaunpro1 I'd be sitting tight and getting Clarry. He's actually a POD and a much better one. Obviously a lot will trade him (back) in over the next rounds but with Trac in 30% of the Top1% and Clarry in only 13%, Clarry is probably gonna give you that upside. Not sure about the teams ahead of you and how many have Trac but the beauty of being so highly ranked is you can check out each team individually and work out where you can gain some ground. My gut on this one says stick to your plans and play the patient game

Its not so much avenues to gain ground its avenues to not lose ground just think fading Clayton Oliver for the year when he can dunk on an easy run home is pretty dumb ultimately.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Oliver is only a POD you want if he comes back. Hurts week on week if he doesn't.

He doesn't play next week thats where it would hurt me points wise and I'd just upgrade to another premo (Probably Libba), not in a bye round when I have 19 anyway.

Very team dependent how you play this though

 

[Manikato1]

I feel like I only have a few options here, which is bring in Petracca who is overpriced at $650k or Serong at $584k but either way I would be fading Oliver for the rest of the year (which just feels wrong and mentally don't think I can root against him for 9 rounds).

Depending on your cash position and trades perhaps look at it this way.

What are the chances that one of your eight premo mids will get injured between say rounds 16 and 20? That is five rounds. Good chance that will happen although extent of injury is an unknown variable (ie just look how Oliver has dealt holders a ****e card)

If cash allows trade Oliver in at that point. And you will have had the advantage of seeing him play a game or two to blow the cobwebs out. If he smashes it then you know he is back in business. If he is a bit rusty then you get the advantage of a price drop. Clearly if you have 2 trades left and $500 cash then it is a no goer. If your have $200k and 6 trades left then maybe it could work.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Getting Yeo then flicking Mitchell to Himmelberg and upgrading Humphrey to a premo mid and finishing with 2 trades next week does tempt me, but think I should probably stick with just getting Ridley or Ryan alot safer.