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Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
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100% this.
There is no real shortage of mids from $550k-$650k that will be on the radar next year compared to ruck stocks. At some point, these mids are bound to have a down game that resets their price cycle. We haven't seen a full season of 125+ scoring from LDU yet (let alone 10+ games), and putting him into the players like English, Oliver, Bont, Dunkley might just be a bit of a stretch right now.
Not saying he can't average 120-125 next year but the law of average tells us that if he scores 75 at any point during that time then he comes down 30k and that's all I (personally) care about.
Also agree with everyone that his last 4 games have been ultra impressive and if he does finish the year strong with an interrupted pre-season, will be a tough choice not to pick him.
There is no real shortage of mids from $550k-$650k that will be on the radar next year compared to ruck stocks. At some point, these mids are bound to have a down game that resets their price cycle. We haven't seen a full season of 125+ scoring from LDU yet (let alone 10+ games), and putting him into the players like English, Oliver, Bont, Dunkley might just be a bit of a stretch right now.
Not saying he can't average 120-125 next year but the law of average tells us that if he scores 75 at any point during that time then he comes down 30k and that's all I (personally) care about.
Also agree with everyone that his last 4 games have been ultra impressive and if he does finish the year strong with an interrupted pre-season, will be a tough choice not to pick him.
He's going 130 ppg in the last month potentially not even at full fitness/strength in a losing side and with multiple blokes hanging off him at every stoppage. Yeh he's gonna be $630k which isn't a nice price but there is still upside for someone who has top 3 mid potential. First picked mid next season for me, might be recency bias because I picked him up at $495k this season and he has been immense but the bloke just has a perfectly made SC game.
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Don't disagree entirely with you, but it's still a small sample size for me. All of the indicators are pointing to him having a strong finish and truly breaking out next year, but it's also important to remember his last 4 games have been Geelong, Hawks, Saints and West Coast. These are not exactly the most restrictive opposing mids, but I believe Melbourne this week will be his greatest test out of the remaining games.
I think my point is more so that the average isn't as important to me as the possibility for a down game is, as that is what ultimately leads me to get them at $590k-$600k. Picking someone like a Laird (who could be priced similarly next year) could net or lose me anywhere from 50+ points, but you're likely to make that difference up elsewhere.
I'm also banking on the fact that a player like him cannot average a consistent 125-130 points per game all year (and would put him at Oliver status) which could come back to either work in my favour or bite me badly.
I think my point is more so that the average isn't as important to me as the possibility for a down game is, as that is what ultimately leads me to get them at $590k-$600k. Picking someone like a Laird (who could be priced similarly next year) could net or lose me anywhere from 50+ points, but you're likely to make that difference up elsewhere.
I'm also banking on the fact that a player like him cannot average a consistent 125-130 points per game all year (and would put him at Oliver status) which could come back to either work in my favour or bite me badly.
Andrew brayshaw only 🔒 for me
Early captainabke players also gonna be in my team, which would include Atleast a couple of Dunkley Bont English Oliver
Starting team one thing I’ve gotten lucky with in the past, has helped me only be outside top 10k overall rank for one round out of over 100 in the last 5 years, rnd 1 2021
Might look to going back to my 2 pods strategy next year, but this was the first year I strayed away from it and it seems to have worked decently haha
Early captainabke players also gonna be in my team, which would include Atleast a couple of Dunkley Bont English Oliver
Starting team one thing I’ve gotten lucky with in the past, has helped me only be outside top 10k overall rank for one round out of over 100 in the last 5 years, rnd 1 2021
Might look to going back to my 2 pods strategy next year, but this was the first year I strayed away from it and it seems to have worked decently haha
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I don't think the coaches are going to just let him waste away in the forward line and not touch the ball.
On pure game sense and talent he's almost the best on our list already: when we need something he'll go where the ball is - down back or in midfield. Hopefully pulls his floor up to 70s or 80s to go with the 12 (!) hundreds he's pulled this year.
Doesn't need much of a jump from a 97 rookie average to be a premium forward or back... if he has DPP it will be hard to stay away!
On pure game sense and talent he's almost the best on our list already: when we need something he'll go where the ball is - down back or in midfield. Hopefully pulls his floor up to 70s or 80s to go with the 12 (!) hundreds he's pulled this year.
Doesn't need much of a jump from a 97 rookie average to be a premium forward or back... if he has DPP it will be hard to stay away!
Of the most recent drafts, who do we predict to be the best long-term supercoach options?
*Not best player, best SC option*
2021 was: JHF, Darcy, Callaghan, Daicos, Andrew, Rachele, Ward, Amiss, Gibcus, Erasmus
(Other notable scorers so far: Hobbs (13), Wilmot (16), Johnson (21)
2022 we had: Cadman, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, Mackenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou as the top-10
Bit early perhaps to judge and I didn't follow as closely.
Daicos of course, but Hobbs, Erasmus, Sheezel, Ward, Macdonald (pick26 2021) etc all had prolific (125+) junior years (NAB League etc)
JHF not so much, but he did monster the semi-final(?) with 160+ sc
Anyone able to offer any insights or thoughts?
*Not best player, best SC option*
2021 was: JHF, Darcy, Callaghan, Daicos, Andrew, Rachele, Ward, Amiss, Gibcus, Erasmus
(Other notable scorers so far: Hobbs (13), Wilmot (16), Johnson (21)
2022 we had: Cadman, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, Mackenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou as the top-10
Bit early perhaps to judge and I didn't follow as closely.
Daicos of course, but Hobbs, Erasmus, Sheezel, Ward, Macdonald (pick26 2021) etc all had prolific (125+) junior years (NAB League etc)
JHF not so much, but he did monster the semi-final(?) with 160+ sc
Anyone able to offer any insights or thoughts?
A few disparate thoughts - hopefully there is something helpful in there!
In our keeper league I’ve had picks 1 and 11, and then 3, 7 and 10 across those two years, and I’ve taken Daicos, Johnson, and then Tsatas, Mackenzie and Barnett. That probably gives a fair indication of who I rate(d) highest, obviously subject to being available at those picks (eg I couldn’t get Daicos and JHF, it was one or the other). I was happy with the value on a number of those selections (ie I would have taken them higher if I had to).
I’m not sure a huge amount has changed. There are probably a few guys who were picked a little later who have improved their appeal since being drafted, but I’m not sure there will be too many fails amongst the high draft picks based on what we’ve seen so far. Guys like Johnson, Hollands, Fletcher, De Koning, Roberts and Holmes have probably improved their standing. Clearly Nick Martin and Jai Newcombe have rocketed up the list if you include the MSD guys.
I feel like Tsatas has been a bit under the radar (perhaps until this week) relative to his fantasy potential, he was huge last year despite an interrupted season.
Talls obviously can take a bit longer, albeit a few of them have got good game time early and some even secured spots in the best 22. They also have positional scarcity in fantasy.
The Humphrey types can also be quite handy if they maintain forward status.
Fahey has been getting a heap of ball in the VFL and done okay with limited minutes at AFL level. I haven’t heard anyone mention his kick from an SC perspective yet, but it is elite, so he should have a lot of upside if he continues to accumulate and can showcase his kicking ability alongside it. He didn’t go that high in the draft as an academy pick, but could be flying a bit under the radar too.
In our keeper league I’ve had picks 1 and 11, and then 3, 7 and 10 across those two years, and I’ve taken Daicos, Johnson, and then Tsatas, Mackenzie and Barnett. That probably gives a fair indication of who I rate(d) highest, obviously subject to being available at those picks (eg I couldn’t get Daicos and JHF, it was one or the other). I was happy with the value on a number of those selections (ie I would have taken them higher if I had to).
I’m not sure a huge amount has changed. There are probably a few guys who were picked a little later who have improved their appeal since being drafted, but I’m not sure there will be too many fails amongst the high draft picks based on what we’ve seen so far. Guys like Johnson, Hollands, Fletcher, De Koning, Roberts and Holmes have probably improved their standing. Clearly Nick Martin and Jai Newcombe have rocketed up the list if you include the MSD guys.
I feel like Tsatas has been a bit under the radar (perhaps until this week) relative to his fantasy potential, he was huge last year despite an interrupted season.
Talls obviously can take a bit longer, albeit a few of them have got good game time early and some even secured spots in the best 22. They also have positional scarcity in fantasy.
The Humphrey types can also be quite handy if they maintain forward status.
Fahey has been getting a heap of ball in the VFL and done okay with limited minutes at AFL level. I haven’t heard anyone mention his kick from an SC perspective yet, but it is elite, so he should have a lot of upside if he continues to accumulate and can showcase his kicking ability alongside it. He didn’t go that high in the draft as an academy pick, but could be flying a bit under the radar too.
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174 today shows what he is capable of.
40 touches, 12 marks, 1 clanger. Plus this:
View: https://twitter.com/HawthornFC/status/1690587457593749505
40 touches, 12 marks, 1 clanger. Plus this:
View: https://twitter.com/HawthornFC/status/1690587457593749505
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From how I see it he started the year with some niggles that held him back, has averaged 116 since getting past them around round 8, will priced around 108 average
3 consecutive years over 105 average and entering the beginning of prime years with around 120 games under the belt and apart from the broken jaw no long term injury history
Reeks of an Uber premo breakout, but there will be a few underpriced mid premos (touk, steele, mills, Walsh) so can’t say he’s a lock myself
3 consecutive years over 105 average and entering the beginning of prime years with around 120 games under the belt and apart from the broken jaw no long term injury history
Reeks of an Uber premo breakout, but there will be a few underpriced mid premos (touk, steele, mills, Walsh) so can’t say he’s a lock myself