Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

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#81
We were talking about midfielders though, and English if you started with him this year, was just good luck because he hasn't been durable or high scoring consistently, until this season.
Makes no difference where a player is slotted when it comes to price v durability v scoring history though does it, only difference being the extra options available for similar priced players.

I do agree that I think he'll be too highly priced and carries a somewhat unnecessary risk (y)
 
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Richmond
#82
I think that one of the best uses of all the extra trades is starting a player that you would really like to select, but for their injury risk. There’s a lot more capacity to bear the injury risk than in prior years, and the upside from getting it right is a lot higher than some of the sideways trades that probably crept in for a lot of sides this year.

I reckon that taking the injury risk for a player you think could be an absolute top liner also makes more sense in the ruck, given there are usually fewer good options, and more of a gap if you don’t pick the right one.
100% this.

There is no real shortage of mids from $550k-$650k that will be on the radar next year compared to ruck stocks. At some point, these mids are bound to have a down game that resets their price cycle. We haven't seen a full season of 125+ scoring from LDU yet (let alone 10+ games), and putting him into the players like English, Oliver, Bont, Dunkley might just be a bit of a stretch right now.

Not saying he can't average 120-125 next year but the law of average tells us that if he scores 75 at any point during that time then he comes down 30k and that's all I (personally) care about.

Also agree with everyone that his last 4 games have been ultra impressive and if he does finish the year strong with an interrupted pre-season, will be a tough choice not to pick him.
 
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Carlton
#83
Just don’t see myself going there when you have the likes of Cripps, Steele and Miller who should all end up with a 2023 average of 100-105 and a 2024 price tag of 550-580k.

Even Mills is currently only going at 87.3 if you’re willing to take a punt on him.
I think you can only really go with Mills if Longmire leaves, his role changes every game and in game.
 
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#84
100% this.

There is no real shortage of mids from $550k-$650k that will be on the radar next year compared to ruck stocks. At some point, these mids are bound to have a down game that resets their price cycle. We haven't seen a full season of 125+ scoring from LDU yet (let alone 10+ games), and putting him into the players like English, Oliver, Bont, Dunkley might just be a bit of a stretch right now.

Not saying he can't average 120-125 next year but the law of average tells us that if he scores 75 at any point during that time then he comes down 30k and that's all I (personally) care about.

Also agree with everyone that his last 4 games have been ultra impressive and if he does finish the year strong with an interrupted pre-season, will be a tough choice not to pick him.
He's going 130 ppg in the last month potentially not even at full fitness/strength in a losing side and with multiple blokes hanging off him at every stoppage. Yeh he's gonna be $630k which isn't a nice price but there is still upside for someone who has top 3 mid potential. First picked mid next season for me, might be recency bias because I picked him up at $495k this season and he has been immense but the bloke just has a perfectly made SC game.
 
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#85
He's going 130 ppg in the last month potentially not even at full fitness/strength in a losing side and with multiple blokes hanging off him at every stoppage. Yeh he's gonna be $630k which isn't a nice price but there is still upside for someone who has top 3 mid potential. First picked mid next season for me, might be recency bias because I picked him up at $495k this season and he has been immense but the bloke just has a perfectly made SC game.
Don't disagree entirely with you, but it's still a small sample size for me. All of the indicators are pointing to him having a strong finish and truly breaking out next year, but it's also important to remember his last 4 games have been Geelong, Hawks, Saints and West Coast. These are not exactly the most restrictive opposing mids, but I believe Melbourne this week will be his greatest test out of the remaining games.

I think my point is more so that the average isn't as important to me as the possibility for a down game is, as that is what ultimately leads me to get them at $590k-$600k. Picking someone like a Laird (who could be priced similarly next year) could net or lose me anywhere from 50+ points, but you're likely to make that difference up elsewhere.

I'm also banking on the fact that a player like him cannot average a consistent 125-130 points per game all year (and would put him at Oliver status) which could come back to either work in my favour or bite me badly.
 
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#86
How many people are avoiding starting Oliver next season due to his current hammy issue? Normally one of the first players I pick as a VC or C option but I think I'll give him a miss next season with my starting team with the hope of picking him up during the season.
 
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#88
Andrew brayshaw only 🔒 for me

Early captainabke players also gonna be in my team, which would include Atleast a couple of Dunkley Bont English Oliver

Starting team one thing I’ve gotten lucky with in the past, has helped me only be outside top 10k overall rank for one round out of over 100 in the last 5 years, rnd 1 2021

Might look to going back to my 2 pods strategy next year, but this was the first year I strayed away from it and it seems to have worked decently haha
 
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#89
I can't see myself doing much different, will pick the starting side I want to pick and boost my way out of it if the side isn't right.

Went from Rank 26K after 4 rounds to 346th after 8 playing like that, just can't sit on your hands in modern SC with bulk trades and boosts.
 
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#91
With Hall announcing his retirement after Ziebell announcing his last week, Sheezel is on the radar again
Based on the last quarter of their game against the Eagles last week, he's being wasted in their backline. Basically almost won them the game as a forward in the last quarter when moved there. Not sure you can select him at his price as a fwd that pinch hits through the midfield.
 
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#92
Based on the last quarter of their game against the Eagles last week, he's being wasted in their backline. Basically almost won them the game as a forward in the last quarter when moved there. Not sure you can select him at his price as a fwd that pinch hits through the midfield.
I don't think the coaches are going to just let him waste away in the forward line and not touch the ball.

On pure game sense and talent he's almost the best on our list already: when we need something he'll go where the ball is - down back or in midfield. Hopefully pulls his floor up to 70s or 80s to go with the 12 (!) hundreds he's pulled this year.

Doesn't need much of a jump from a 97 rookie average to be a premium forward or back... if he has DPP it will be hard to stay away! :p
 
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#93
Of the most recent drafts, who do we predict to be the best long-term supercoach options?
*Not best player, best SC option*

2021 was: JHF, Darcy, Callaghan, Daicos, Andrew, Rachele, Ward, Amiss, Gibcus, Erasmus
(Other notable scorers so far: Hobbs (13), Wilmot (16), Johnson (21)
2022 we had: Cadman, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, Mackenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou as the top-10
Bit early perhaps to judge and I didn't follow as closely.

Daicos of course, but Hobbs, Erasmus, Sheezel, Ward, Macdonald (pick26 2021) etc all had prolific (125+) junior years (NAB League etc)
JHF not so much, but he did monster the semi-final(?) with 160+ sc


Anyone able to offer any insights or thoughts?
 

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#94
Of the most recent drafts, who do we predict to be the best long-term supercoach options?
*Not best player, best SC option*

2021 was: JHF, Darcy, Callaghan, Daicos, Andrew, Rachele, Ward, Amiss, Gibcus, Erasmus
(Other notable scorers so far: Hobbs (13), Wilmot (16), Johnson (21)
2022 we had: Cadman, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, Mackenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou as the top-10
Bit early perhaps to judge and I didn't follow as closely.

Daicos of course, but Hobbs, Erasmus, Sheezel, Ward, Macdonald (pick26 2021) etc all had prolific (125+) junior years (NAB League etc)
JHF not so much, but he did monster the semi-final(?) with 160+ sc


Anyone able to offer any insights or thoughts?
A few disparate thoughts - hopefully there is something helpful in there!

In our keeper league I’ve had picks 1 and 11, and then 3, 7 and 10 across those two years, and I’ve taken Daicos, Johnson, and then Tsatas, Mackenzie and Barnett. That probably gives a fair indication of who I rate(d) highest, obviously subject to being available at those picks (eg I couldn’t get Daicos and JHF, it was one or the other). I was happy with the value on a number of those selections (ie I would have taken them higher if I had to).

I’m not sure a huge amount has changed. There are probably a few guys who were picked a little later who have improved their appeal since being drafted, but I’m not sure there will be too many fails amongst the high draft picks based on what we’ve seen so far. Guys like Johnson, Hollands, Fletcher, De Koning, Roberts and Holmes have probably improved their standing. Clearly Nick Martin and Jai Newcombe have rocketed up the list if you include the MSD guys.

I feel like Tsatas has been a bit under the radar (perhaps until this week) relative to his fantasy potential, he was huge last year despite an interrupted season.

Talls obviously can take a bit longer, albeit a few of them have got good game time early and some even secured spots in the best 22. They also have positional scarcity in fantasy.

The Humphrey types can also be quite handy if they maintain forward status.

Fahey has been getting a heap of ball in the VFL and done okay with limited minutes at AFL level. I haven’t heard anyone mention his kick from an SC perspective yet, but it is elite, so he should have a lot of upside if he continues to accumulate and can showcase his kicking ability alongside it. He didn’t go that high in the draft as an academy pick, but could be flying a bit under the radar too.
 
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#96
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#98
I'm dying of curiosity... why Andy Brayshaw?
From how I see it he started the year with some niggles that held him back, has averaged 116 since getting past them around round 8, will priced around 108 average
3 consecutive years over 105 average and entering the beginning of prime years with around 120 games under the belt and apart from the broken jaw no long term injury history
Reeks of an Uber premo breakout, but there will be a few underpriced mid premos (touk, steele, mills, Walsh) so can’t say he’s a lock myself
 
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From how I see it he started the year with some niggles that held him back, has averaged 116 since getting past them around round 8, will priced around 108 average
3 consecutive years over 105 average and entering the beginning of prime years with around 120 games under the belt and apart from the broken jaw no long term injury history
Reeks of an Uber premo breakout, but there will be a few underpriced mid premos (touk, steele, mills, Walsh) so can’t say he’s a lock myself
Pretty much what ginty said above, 116 since he said he “wasn’t injured”

This also been the first season I did not start him since he’s been in the comp, so happy to have him back in the starting squad

Just a gun, one of my favs to watch
Cheers guys, I also didn’t notice how amazingly consistent he's been in this time, despite having him in my team. Only one score below 100 since round 8.
 
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