Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[TeeButOne]

Rowsus,

As much as I'd like to get Crouch in this week, I don't really have any options to trade out for him. It would have likely been either Matt Thomas or Dom Tyson, but Thomas has already played, and I can't justify getting rid of Tyson (even though he'll slow in increase for a couple of weeks). Added to that Crouch has the R8 BYE.

Thoughts?

 

[Krieks]

I had a crazy idea this morning but thought I better run it past the guru before getting too serious about it. I currently have Tom Mitchell, Lloyd and Taylor in my forward line.. Was happy this week to just start Lloyd and take a more measured approach to Mitchell rather than panic trade him to anyone. Anyway, my idea is to wait 1 more week then downgrade him to Cloke. If price changes happen as projected this trade would make me just over 100k, and give me a potential keeper if Cloke can sort his stuff out.

As I see it the pro's are:
- Money
- Super cheap player who usually scores well (this is assuming his start to the year will have correction)

Cons:
- Doesn't make as much as a true downgrade
- Could leave me with a spud who needs another trade to correct if he doesn't start returning towards his mean.

Would love your thoughts
Thanks!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus

My first trade is sorted. Mummy to Jacobs.

My dilemma is which premium fwd to trade in for Caddy/T Mitchell. Pavlich? Rough? Chappy? Can't afford NRoo or boomer.

My concern with Pav is will his scores be impacted by the return of fyfe?

Hi expl0it,
I don't think Pav is negatively affected by Fyfe at all. My order would be Pav, Roughie, Chappy, and Chappy is only last due to the prospect of more missed games.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

As much as I'd like to get Crouch in this week, I don't really have any options to trade out for him. It would have likely been either Matt Thomas or Dom Tyson, but Thomas has already played, and I can't justify getting rid of Tyson (even though he'll slow in increase for a couple of weeks). Added to that Crouch has the R8 BYE.

Thoughts?

TBO
don't sweat it, Crouch is far from a must have. Many will miss him due to his round 8 bye.

 

[Rowsus]

I had a crazy idea this morning but thought I better run it past the guru before getting too serious about it. I currently have Tom Mitchell, Lloyd and Taylor in my forward line.. Was happy this week to just start Lloyd and take a more measured approach to Mitchell rather than panic trade him to anyone. Anyway, my idea is to wait 1 more week then downgrade him to Cloke. If price changes happen as projected this trade would make me just over 100k, and give me a potential keeper if Cloke can sort his stuff out.

As I see it the pro's are:
- Money
- Super cheap player who usually scores well (this is assuming his start to the year will have correction)

Cons:
- Doesn't make as much as a true downgrade
- Could leave me with a spud who needs another trade to correct if he doesn't start returning towards his mean.

Would love your thoughts
Thanks!

Definitely fits the high risk, high reward catagory. Maybe you could throw Petrie into the equation instead of Cloke? Much better history than Cloke, though I do think both will turn a corner ......... sooner or later!

 

[TeeButOne]

TBO
don't sweat it, Crouch is far from a must have. Many will miss him due to his round 8 bye.

Rowsus,

Cheers, and that's the way I'll be going anyway. Plus I'm still getting my kicks from trading in Fasolo (132 on debut ... yeah baby)!!!

 

[lakb24]

Hi Rowsus
Interested to see your opinion on the following
I seem to have not enough trades to do what i want this week and nor do i know what it is that i want

I can do 2 downgrades
Higgins/Impey to Lloyd and one of Langdon to Cutler or Ellis to Robertson
or an
Upgrade Downgrade
Any of the following downgrades followed by either Ellis/Tyson to Watson/Fyfe/Griffen or Langdon to Hibberd/Jaensch

Im not sure which of the following combination of players id like to trade in and out
The original plan was to stockpile money until round 9 then trade Tyson and Dunstan out for Selwood and Pendles

But im not sure maybe i need to upgrade this week as Langdon and the mid rookies are really hurting
Any advice?
Thanks!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus
Interested to see your opinion on the following
I seem to have not enough trades to do what i want this week and nor do i know what it is that i want

I can do 2 downgrades
Higgins/Impey to Lloyd and one of Langdon to Cutler or Ellis to Robertson
or an
Upgrade Downgrade
Any of the following downgrades followed by either Ellis/Tyson to Watson/Fyfe/Griffen or Langdon to Hibberd/Jaensch

Im not sure which of the following combination of players id like to trade in and out
The original plan was to stockpile money until round 9 then trade Tyson and Dunstan out for Selwood and Pendles

But im not sure maybe i need to upgrade this week as Langdon and the mid rookies are really hurting
Any advice?
Thanks!

Hi lakb24,
you would appear to have bigger concerns to deal with than Higgins (B/E 38) and Impey (B/E 16).
Ellis B/E 100, (hope he doesn't get selected this week, so you can fix him the week after) Dunstan B/E 86, Tyson B/E 97.
If Ellis isn't picked, you should be dealing with Tyson and Dunston, as there is a good chance they will both lose money. Higgins and Impey should at least make a little money.
Double downgrade, or one up one down, there's an argument for either action.
Griffen's price should start to rise a little now, so he should be a good upgrade target this week.

 

[bloke]

Hey Rowsus,
Where do you stand on trades next week? Would one upgrade one downgrade be better than 2 downgrades?

I've pretty much narrowed it down to 2 options.

1. Ellis>Griffen
Tyson>Robertson

2. Langdon>Cutler (Ellis should miss next week)
Tyson>Robertson

I think I read option 1 will actually bank some cash and I think this is the last chance to grab Griffen cheap, but I'll have to grab Cutler for a higher price the next week. Either way I'll have done 2 upgraded and 2 downgrades over the next 2 weeks

 

[quickie]

Hi Rowsus or Impromptu (if you are there).

What are your thoughts if you are currently a Macrae owner Since Rnd 1? Currently, I am thinking of holding him until the byes, and then reassessing what to do, seeing he keeps racking up 25+ disposals a game with ease.

If you expect him to average similar to Fyfe in his 2nd year (~105-108 SC), is it even worth upgrading him?

I plan on getting Griffen this week, so my team is going to be full of Bulldog players .

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Where do you stand on trades next week? Would one upgrade one downgrade be better than 2 downgrades?

I've pretty much narrowed it down to 2 options.

1. Ellis>Griffen
Tyson>Robertson

2. Langdon>Cutler (Ellis should miss next week)
Tyson>Robertson

I think I read option 1 will actually bank some cash and I think this is the last chance to grab Griffen cheap, but I'll have to grab Cutler for a higher price the next week. Either way I'll have done 2 upgraded and 2 downgrades over the next 2 weeks

Just off the top of my head, the equation looks something like this.

Which is the greater/lesser amount?

(Griffen's next week score - 98) x $440

or

((Cutler's next week score + 37) - (Langdon's next week score - 44)) x $440

=> (Cutler's score - Langdon's score + 81) x $440

The first equation is the extra Griffen will cost you, if you wait a week to get him.
The second equation is the amount you will make on doing Langdon to Cutler this week, instead of waiting a week.

It would seem very likely you will make more money on Langdon to Cutler, than Griffens price will go up by waiting for him.
Therefore, if money is a factor, wait on Griffen, if points are more important, get Griffen this week.

 

[bloke]

Just off the top of my head, the equation looks something like this.

Which is the greater/lesser amount?

(Griffen's next week score - 98) x $440

or

((Cutler's next week score + 37) - (Langdon's next week score - 44)) x $440

=> (Cutler's score - Langdon's score + 81) x $440

The first equation is the extra Griffen will cost you, if you wait a week to get him.
The second equation is the amount you will make on doing Langdon to Cutler this week, instead of waiting a week.

It would seem very likely you will make more money on Langdon to Cutler, than Griffens price will go up by waiting for him.
Therefore, if money is a factor, wait on Griffen, if points are more important, get Griffen this week.

Thanks Rowsus. Great analysis and it definitely has me thinking. I think the points are probably more important for me at the moment because I seem to have started pretty poorly. Have a bit of cash already, so I might grab Griffen while he's cheapest and grab Mundy/Watson/Goddard the week after.

 

[Juzzo]

Hi Rowsus,

Is it time I down or upgrade Dunn, I think I got that one wrong thinking he might be a keeper.
Would like to get Griff this week, but not sure if I should be downgrading rookies ie. Langdon, Dunston, Aish, McDonald etc to get in Cutler, Robertson etc.

Advice really appreciated.

Thanks

PS. I hope my Dahlhaus pick will hold up for the rest of the year, great game yesterday in losing side.

 

[KLo30]

Hi Rowsus or Impromptu (if you are there).

What are your thoughts if you are currently a Macrae owner Since Rnd 1? Currently, I am thinking of holding him until the byes, and then reassessing what to do, seeing he keeps racking up 25+ disposals a game with ease.

If you expect him to average similar to Fyfe in his 2nd year (~105-108 SC), is it even worth upgrading him?

I plan on getting Griffen this week, so my team is going to be full of Bulldog players .

Firstly, well done on your initial selection. Macrae is averaging 109+ SC, and as you say the ball finds him, so he would be the last player you'd be looking at to upgrade. Rookies to premiums until all 22 on-field positions are covered, then assess Macrae's position in your side.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Is it time I down or upgrade Dunn, I think I got that one wrong thinking he might be a keeper.
Would like to get Griff this week, but not sure if I should be downgrading rookies ie. Langdon, Dunston, Aish, McDonald etc to get in Cutler, Robertson etc.

Advice really appreciated.

Thanks

PS. I hope my Dahlhaus pick will hold up for the rest of the year, great game yesterday in losing side.

I think you need to ride Dunn out for the moment. With Ellis, Dunstan, Tyson and to a lesser extent Langdon in your team, you have more pressing Things to use your trades on than Dunn.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus or Impromptu (if you are there).

What are your thoughts if you are currently a Macrae owner Since Rnd 1? Currently, I am thinking of holding him until the byes, and then reassessing what to do, seeing he keeps racking up 25+ disposals a game with ease.

If you expect him to average similar to Fyfe in his 2nd year (~105-108 SC), is it even worth upgrading him?

I plan on getting Griffen this week, so my team is going to be full of Bulldog players .

While he's scoring so well you keep him, and upgrade him last, or keep him to loophole at M8/9.

 

[Juzzo]

I think you need to ride Dunn out for the moment. With Ellis, Dunstan, Tyson and to a lesser extent Langdon in your team, you have more pressing Things to use your trades on than Dunn.

I traded Ellis and Tyson last week. So I assume I should concentrate on Dunstan and Langdon this week?

 

[DeliciousJedi]

Rowsus, do you know of any rookies last year (<$200k) or before who had "second wind" in their price fluctuations?

 

[Rowsus]

I traded Ellis and Tyson last week. So I assume I should concentrate on Dunstan and Langdon this week?

That would seem a better course of action than trading Dunn.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, do you know of any rookies last year (<$200k) or before who had "second wind" in their price fluctuations?

Every season there are 3 or 4 that do it to some extent. The thing is, it only takes one good score to re-ignite them, or to get that second wind. That good score takes 3 weeks to cycle through their pricing, so they get another growth spurt.