Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Hey Mike,
I think a lot depends on if Ellis gets selected. If he does you need to dump him this week, if not, the chance is there to keep him until next weeks trades.
I don't particularly like Billings. His score wasn't supported by his stats last week. Dunstan will probably play better in the future, Stevens is still finding form and Armitage has to come back as well. You probably need Billings to average around 80 if you take him, and I'm not confident he can, given the above.
As to choosing between Swan and a Rookie, that comes down to your present need. If you need cash, go the Rookie, if the cash isn't so important, and you need points, go Swan.
The choice between Crouch and Robertson is tough, in general if you are not sure, you should go the cheaper option, if it looks like his JS is ok, and it would seem that Robertsons JS is ok.
Langdon might be closer to cooked than Langford, just based on their B/E's.
Hang onto to Rioli.
Maybe, if Ellis isn't picked, Thomas to Swan/Robertson, depending on need, and Langdon to Cutler.
Good luck
I think a lot depends on if Ellis gets selected. If he does you need to dump him this week, if not, the chance is there to keep him until next weeks trades.
I don't particularly like Billings. His score wasn't supported by his stats last week. Dunstan will probably play better in the future, Stevens is still finding form and Armitage has to come back as well. You probably need Billings to average around 80 if you take him, and I'm not confident he can, given the above.
As to choosing between Swan and a Rookie, that comes down to your present need. If you need cash, go the Rookie, if the cash isn't so important, and you need points, go Swan.
The choice between Crouch and Robertson is tough, in general if you are not sure, you should go the cheaper option, if it looks like his JS is ok, and it would seem that Robertsons JS is ok.
Langdon might be closer to cooked than Langford, just based on their B/E's.
Hang onto to Rioli.
Maybe, if Ellis isn't picked, Thomas to Swan/Robertson, depending on need, and Langdon to Cutler.
Good luck
Actually i might add on to that..
If i got Swan now all my mid premiums would have the round 8 bye and id be looking at 17-18 at best for round 8.
Is it better / still worth getting Swan after his bye even though his price will rise?
Should i get another premium instead of Swan now, even if their price isnt at its lowest? Watson, JPK, Fyfe.
Or would a rookie be better and bank the cash?
Sorry for the hassle!
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I think 2012 answers this question the best.
Swan 18 games @ 126 2nd for averages that season
Pendlebury 18 games @ 125 3rd for averages that season
Beams 21 games @ 123 4th for averages that season
Also throw in 3 Richmond Midfielders that same season:
Deledio, Cotchin and Tuck averaged 117, 116 and 115, and finished 9th, 10th and 11th that season for Midfield averages.
There's no reason this season can't see something similar happen.
Swan 18 games @ 126 2nd for averages that season
Pendlebury 18 games @ 125 3rd for averages that season
Beams 21 games @ 123 4th for averages that season
Also throw in 3 Richmond Midfielders that same season:
Deledio, Cotchin and Tuck averaged 117, 116 and 115, and finished 9th, 10th and 11th that season for Midfield averages.
There's no reason this season can't see something similar happen.
I must admit, when I said "Dunstan will play better in the future", I meant better than he played on Saturday, not better than Billings.. I think it's too early to say who is better, certainly draft position doesn't help decide that. I think it really is asking a lot of Billings to average 80, especially given St Kildas Midfield has some depth, even if they are mostly geriatrics.
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Even so I am not Rowsus, I may be able to add to your question:
According to Rowsus' RAMP excel sheet, Swan will rise about $20k in each of the next two weeks, so you lose about $40k if you bring him in after round 8.
There are a couple of fallen premiums that you may consider.
Griffen is one. According to RAMP he has bottomed out as well. The crucial question is what will he average from here on until the end of the season. But even if you expect that he will only average 105 for the season (which is lower than any of his last 3 seasons), he will still average 110 from here on forward at a cost of $525k
Hodge is another one. According to RAMP he will bottom out around the byes at about $425-$435. Even if he only averages 90 for the season, he will average 95 from here on to the end of the season.
Unless you think that Fyfe and JPK are going to take another step up from last year, they have already scored a lot of their points early in the season.
Watson could be a good option to get, he is probably as cheap as he will get in about 2 weeks.
According to Rowsus' RAMP excel sheet, Swan will rise about $20k in each of the next two weeks, so you lose about $40k if you bring him in after round 8.
There are a couple of fallen premiums that you may consider.
Griffen is one. According to RAMP he has bottomed out as well. The crucial question is what will he average from here on until the end of the season. But even if you expect that he will only average 105 for the season (which is lower than any of his last 3 seasons), he will still average 110 from here on forward at a cost of $525k
Hodge is another one. According to RAMP he will bottom out around the byes at about $425-$435. Even if he only averages 90 for the season, he will average 95 from here on to the end of the season.
Unless you think that Fyfe and JPK are going to take another step up from last year, they have already scored a lot of their points early in the season.
Watson could be a good option to get, he is probably as cheap as he will get in about 2 weeks.
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Thanks mate appreciate that. Ive been eyeing Griffen off all season and was certain i was going to get him but im just not sure he is 100% over his back injury. I had him last year so id love to get him in but i think it might be too risky.
I spoke to Rowsus preseason about Hodge and was looking at him too but he correctly pointed out that he is likely to miss a couple with injury and / or be vested if the chance arises.
I think Fyfe can maintain this average. JPK maybe..but maybe just because i love him as a player im a bit biased to want him in my team.
Watson will be in my team its just a matter of when. Id be happy to get him now but i see a Caff tag coming up and he has a big b/e too for this week.
I spoke to Rowsus preseason about Hodge and was looking at him too but he correctly pointed out that he is likely to miss a couple with injury and / or be vested if the chance arises.
I think Fyfe can maintain this average. JPK maybe..but maybe just because i love him as a player im a bit biased to want him in my team.
Watson will be in my team its just a matter of when. Id be happy to get him now but i see a Caff tag coming up and he has a big b/e too for this week.
He's certainly scoring well at the moment, and seems to be one of the main beneficiaries of Thompsons game plan. I still have reservations if it is maintainable though. Not many 197cm Defenders keep pumping out 100+ scores. Look at his history:
2009: 90-99 2 scores, 100+ 1 score
2010: 90-99 0 scores, 100+ 3 scores
2011: 90-99 0 scores, 100+ 2 scores
2012: 90-99 2 scores, 100+ 2 scores
2013: 90-99 4 scores, 100+ 3 scores
He already has 4 100+ scores this season, and there in lies the problem. His best season ever is 77.4 last season. Can he post a personal best this season? No doubt. Can he keep posting 90+ or 100+ plus scores regularly this season? I doubt it. The figures above show, that before last season, the most 90+ scores he had posted in one season was 4! Last season he reached 7. Let's assume he reaches say 10 this season, or even 12. The problem is, that won't be enough to give him a higher than mid to low 90's for the season. Taking into account his scores so far, it means you might expect him to average 88-90 for the season from here. That's a little low for D6, then add in the concern that, before last seasons 22 games the most games he has has played in a season is 18, and he becomes a bit hard to put in your team now. One of the many players that fit the "Well done if you got him early, but it seems too late to take him now" description.
2009: 90-99 2 scores, 100+ 1 score
2010: 90-99 0 scores, 100+ 3 scores
2011: 90-99 0 scores, 100+ 2 scores
2012: 90-99 2 scores, 100+ 2 scores
2013: 90-99 4 scores, 100+ 3 scores
He already has 4 100+ scores this season, and there in lies the problem. His best season ever is 77.4 last season. Can he post a personal best this season? No doubt. Can he keep posting 90+ or 100+ plus scores regularly this season? I doubt it. The figures above show, that before last season, the most 90+ scores he had posted in one season was 4! Last season he reached 7. Let's assume he reaches say 10 this season, or even 12. The problem is, that won't be enough to give him a higher than mid to low 90's for the season. Taking into account his scores so far, it means you might expect him to average 88-90 for the season from here. That's a little low for D6, then add in the concern that, before last seasons 22 games the most games he has has played in a season is 18, and he becomes a bit hard to put in your team now. One of the many players that fit the "Well done if you got him early, but it seems too late to take him now" description.
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To be honest, I'm not in the A Walker fan Club. I took him in about round 4 last season, and rode him out to the end of the season, but I'm happy enough to avoid him this season. I have seen nothing to make me think anything other than last season was a spike. Before last season he had had only two 80+ seasons: 2008 - 81, 2011 - 83. Even his 2008 season might have been boosted by the fact he only played 7 games. He's currently averaging 82 this season, I will not at all be surprised if he finishes the season in the 80-85 range. His history would tend to indicate that's where his level is. To trade him in at his $498,200 price tag, you'd want around a 95-100 return. I'm not saying he can't or won't do that, just I'd be personally surprised if he managed it.
Simpson has beaten Walker every single season, bar last season. Since 2006 he has missed 3 games (Walker has missed 51 in that time!) and has only had 2 seasons under 93!!! (2007 - 89, 2008 85). In other words, if we line up the 2 players last 8 seasons in order, giving us 16 seasons to look at, Walker has the best season, with his last seasons 106, then all 8 of Simpsons last 8 seasons are better than Walker's 2nd best season. Simpson is priced $30k cheaper than Walker, and I honestly would be happy to back him at $1.50 to play more games, score more points, and average more points than Walker this season. Simpsons last 5 seasons read: 94, 100, 95, 94, 95. Just what we want from a D4.
To me it looks simple, Simpson, but I have been proven wrong before!
Good luck
Edit - one last piece of persuasion for those not yet convinced. Here is their head to head records, where they played in the same games together for the last 5 seasons:
[table="width: 580, class: grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]Games[/td]
[td]Simpson[/td]
[td]Draw[/td]
[td]Walker[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]12[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Total[/td]
[td]77[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
So Simpson has outscored Walker in 49 of the 77 games they have played together in the last 5 seasons! (and leads him 3 to 1 this season, to make it 52 out of 81 the last 5.05 seasons!)
Simpson has beaten Walker every single season, bar last season. Since 2006 he has missed 3 games (Walker has missed 51 in that time!) and has only had 2 seasons under 93!!! (2007 - 89, 2008 85). In other words, if we line up the 2 players last 8 seasons in order, giving us 16 seasons to look at, Walker has the best season, with his last seasons 106, then all 8 of Simpsons last 8 seasons are better than Walker's 2nd best season. Simpson is priced $30k cheaper than Walker, and I honestly would be happy to back him at $1.50 to play more games, score more points, and average more points than Walker this season. Simpsons last 5 seasons read: 94, 100, 95, 94, 95. Just what we want from a D4.
To me it looks simple, Simpson, but I have been proven wrong before!
Good luck
Edit - one last piece of persuasion for those not yet convinced. Here is their head to head records, where they played in the same games together for the last 5 seasons:
[table="width: 580, class: grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]Games[/td]
[td]Simpson[/td]
[td]Draw[/td]
[td]Walker[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]12[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Total[/td]
[td]77[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
So Simpson has outscored Walker in 49 of the 77 games they have played together in the last 5 seasons! (and leads him 3 to 1 this season, to make it 52 out of 81 the last 5.05 seasons!)
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Thanks Rowsus! You're the man!
I try to rep you each time, but apparently I need to share it around before you can accept it.
I've worked out that I'm definitely trading Ellis to Robertson. Ellis is too much deadweight and a trade I'll have to make anyway - so he's gone. And Robertson has enough JS at the Lions to keep him there for at least a few games.
The second trade is my real conundrum. Not so much who to trade out (I've chose Tyson), but who to trade him to.
I have a very soft backline - 3 rookies. But at the same time, a soft mid - 4 rookies.
Therefore, this second trade is necessitated to be an upgrade. But which line?
I have Jobe Watson in my targets, but according to SC Gold, he has a BE of 158 and will drop $20k in price even if he scores 111. My gut says he loves big occasions like ANZAC day and will pull a ripper of a game with 120+, but the money says hold out for a week.
On the other hand, I would also like Walker/Simpson in my backline which would suit my bye structure immensely. Simpson has a BE of 67, and has fallen $20k in price since the beginning of the season - which indicates a good buy at the current time.
Which would you take as an upgrade this week? Watson or Simpson?
I try to rep you each time
, but apparently I need to share it around before you can accept it. I've worked out that I'm definitely trading Ellis to Robertson. Ellis is too much deadweight and a trade I'll have to make anyway - so he's gone. And Robertson has enough JS at the Lions to keep him there for at least a few games.
The second trade is my real conundrum. Not so much who to trade out (I've chose Tyson), but who to trade him to.
I have a very soft backline - 3 rookies. But at the same time, a soft mid - 4 rookies.
Therefore, this second trade is necessitated to be an upgrade. But which line?
I have Jobe Watson in my targets, but according to SC Gold, he has a BE of 158 and will drop $20k in price even if he scores 111. My gut says he loves big occasions like ANZAC day and will pull a ripper of a game with 120+, but the money says hold out for a week.
On the other hand, I would also like Walker/Simpson in my backline which would suit my bye structure immensely. Simpson has a BE of 67, and has fallen $20k in price since the beginning of the season - which indicates a good buy at the current time.
Which would you take as an upgrade this week? Watson or Simpson?
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