Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bridgebuff]

Hi Bridge
I think Lloyd probably has the first 2 covered, then it's a line ball after that,
It might be best to see the selected teams first, as I think they will probably give us a push in the right direction.

There have been question marks raised on his JS, but if he gets a full game this week (fingers crossed), he should at least get picked the week after. Let's see if he get's picked, and where he get's picked first.

Hi Rowan,

Thanks for your opinion. Much appreciated.

The main problem that I see is that Sam Gray is playing the last game of the weekend, while Cutler & Robertson play the 2nd game on Friday.
And Gray gets probably named on the extended bench.

 

[Rowsus]

He's averaging over 105 and still 480k ish... Cheaper than Simpson and hibberd, you can't possibly say boat has sailed

At $469,400 you'd want him to average around 93-95 to trade him in, and I have no confidence he won't "Birchall" it from here, but I can understand some taking the risk on him.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus! You're the man!
I try to rep you each time , but apparently I need to share it around before you can accept it.

I've worked out that I'm definitely trading Ellis to Robertson. Ellis is too much deadweight and a trade I'll have to make anyway - so he's gone. And Robertson has enough JS at the Lions to keep him there for at least a few games.

The second trade is my real conundrum. Not so much who to trade out (I've chose Tyson), but who to trade him to.
I have a very soft backline - 3 rookies. But at the same time, a soft mid - 4 rookies.
Therefore, this second trade is necessitated to be an upgrade. But which line?

I have Jobe Watson in my targets, but according to SC Gold, he has a BE of 158 and will drop $20k in price even if he scores 111. My gut says he loves big occasions like ANZAC day and will pull a ripper of a game with 120+, but the money says hold out for a week.
On the other hand, I would also like Walker/Simpson in my backline which would suit my bye structure immensely. Simpson has a BE of 67, and has fallen $20k in price since the beginning of the season - which indicates a good buy at the current time.

Which would you take as an upgrade this week? Watson or Simpson?

To be honest, I'm not in the A Walker fan Club. I took him in about round 4 last season, and rode him out to the end of the season, but I'm happy enough to avoid him this season. I have seen nothing to make me think anything other than last season was a spike. Before last season he had had only two 80+ seasons: 2008 - 81, 2011 - 83. Even his 2008 season might have been boosted by the fact he only played 7 games. He's currently averaging 82 this season, I will not at all be surprised if he finishes the season in the 80-85 range. His history would tend to indicate that's where his level is. To trade him in at his $498,200 price tag, you'd want around a 95-100 return. I'm not saying he can't or won't do that, just I'd be personally surprised if he managed it.
Simpson has beaten Walker every single season, bar last season. Since 2006 he has missed 3 games (Walker has missed 51 in that time!) and has only had 2 seasons under 93!!! (2007 - 89, 2008 85). In other words, if we line up the 2 players last 8 seasons in order, giving us 16 seasons to look at, Walker has the best season, with his last seasons 106, then all 8 of Simpsons last 8 seasons are better than Walker's 2nd best season. Simpson is priced $30k cheaper than Walker, and I honestly would be happy to back him at $1.50 to play more games, score more points, and average more points than Walker this season. Simpsons last 5 seasons read: 94, 100, 95, 94, 95. Just what we want from a D4.
To me it looks simple, Simpson, but I have been proven wrong before!
Good luck

Watson is struggling for form a little, faces Macaffer and HUGE B/E this weekend, it would seem crazy to take him this week.
If it's out of Watson and Simpson this week, Simpson wins easily!

 

[tracygrims]

hey Rowsus..
who would be your number one round 8 defender upgrade aside from Swallow to trade in over the next few weeks?
eyeing Bartel but he's pretty bad value.. would you consider anyone else?

 

[Rowsus]

hey Rowsus..
who would be your number one round 8 defender upgrade aside from Swallow to trade in over the next few weeks?
eyeing Bartel but he's pretty bad value.. would you consider anyone else?

hey tracygrims,
Bartel should be the best performed of that group, but you are right, he doesn't represent value for money, yet!
Enright still has something to offer, and is at about his right price. SD Thompson is also a chance, if he doesn't get suspended again.
Taylor could be some value, when his price drops just that little bit further in the coming weeks. Houli too might return more points than his price would represent.

 

[tracygrims]

yep.. pretty bare as far as r8 defenders are concerned..
I wish I could upgrade elsewhere first, but in the search for points it seems having Langdon, Cutler or Langford on the field is a pretty big hole in anyones side since they average only something like 50-60 points compared to a typical M8 who is good for 80 odd..
the only other option is to keep Langdon in the team and upgrade Langford to an underpriced r9 or r10 defender such as Adcock. Although this also ruins my bye tradibg strategy..

 

[kakarot]

Hey Rowsus,

Who do you think is the better option to bring in as a premium round 9 bye defender out of H Shaw and A Walker?

Shaw is currently priced at $482,300 with a BE of 59, and Walker is priced at $521,600 with a BE of 127 so let's say for arguments sake that by the time I'm ready to trade either in, they'll both be hovering about the 500k mark.

It's not really possible to latch Shaw's scoring history at Collingwood to his new tenure at GWS, but we know he likes to get the ball and run with the ball, kicking it long to contests or accurately to team mates, much like the new role as of last year for Walker. Shaw's games at GWS so far are a 62 (in a high stoppage game against St Kilda), 85, 99 and 110. So 3 of his 4 games so far at GWS are good defender scores, leading us to believe he may be able to attain the high 90 to just on 100 average he usually scores. He seems to be a 18-19 game/year player, and he's already missed one. What would you really want for him in terms of output from this point to be considered a viable trade, if he was to miss 2 more games?

Walker started the year way overpriced for mine, and his price is starting to become more in line with what I would want to pay for him and there is still some more decline to come, unless he bangs out a 130 against West Coast. I've read your thoughts on Walker in response to Dimmawit, and I think that 80-85 is a bit low for what he will produce this year. Given he's missed one game through suspension, I'm going to say he doesn't miss any more H&A games. I really think how he played against the Bulldogs is what we can expect to see for the rest of the season, plenty of dash and lots of meterage with his kicks. CD gave him a 101 and most of his kicks sailed over his teammates heads - if he were to connect a little more then the argument could be made that he could maintain a 95+ average from here.

I think it's a pretty line ball call, what do you reckon?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Who do you think is the better option to bring in as a premium round 9 bye defender out of H Shaw and A Walker?

Shaw is currently priced at $482,300 with a BE of 59, and Walker is priced at $521,600 with a BE of 127 so let's say for arguments sake that by the time I'm ready to trade either in, they'll both be hovering about the 500k mark.

It's not really possible to latch Shaw's scoring history at Collingwood to his new tenure at GWS, but we know he likes to get the ball and run with the ball, kicking it long to contests or accurately to team mates, much like the new role as of last year for Walker. Shaw's games at GWS so far are a 62 (in a high stoppage game against St Kilda), 85, 99 and 110. So 3 of his 4 games so far at GWS are good defender scores, leading us to believe he may be able to attain the high 90 to just on 100 average he usually scores. He seems to be a 18-19 game/year player, and he's already missed one. What would you really want for him in terms of output from this point to be considered a viable trade, if he was to miss 2 more games?

Walker started the year way overpriced for mine, and his price is starting to become more in line with what I would want to pay for him and there is still some more decline to come, unless he bangs out a 130 against West Coast. I've read your thoughts on Walker in response to Dimmawit, and I think that 80-85 is a bit low for what he will produce this year. Given he's missed one game through suspension, I'm going to say he doesn't miss any more H&A games. I really think how he played against the Bulldogs is what we can expect to see for the rest of the season, plenty of dash and lots of meterage with his kicks. CD gave him a 101 and most of his kicks sailed over his teammates heads - if he were to connect a little more then the argument could be made that he could maintain a 95+ average from here.

I think it's a pretty line ball call, what do you reckon?

I'm not sure I share your confidence in Walker not missing anymore games this season. His game count the last 5 seasons has been: 21, 15, 22, 15, 5. Not quite confidence inspiring! He could well prove me wrong, and play every game from here to round 23, and average 95+ for the season, but I won't back him in to do it. I'd much rather have H Shaw in my team this season. He's looked ok the last couple of games!

Walkers price is $498,200, not $521,600, which means he's even better value if you like him!

 

[Prochard]

Why are Simpsons scores so poor against wce?

 

[expl0it]

hey tracygrims,
Bartel should be the best performed of that group, but you are right, he doesn't represent value for money, yet!
Enright still has something to offer, and is at about his right price. SD Thompson is also a chance, if he doesn't get suspended again.
Taylor could be some value, when his price drops just that little bit further in the coming weeks. Houli too might return more points than his price would represent.

Thoughts on Hibberd? About same price at season start. Quite consistent too

 

[Daicos1977]

Hi Rowsus, do you know what Jobe Watson's price will be after R6 if he's Caffeinated and gets 90-100? (lets say 95)

 

[johno686]

Gday Rowsus, What do you think of Hodge? Has dropped 70k. Was thinking he can ave 95 and miss 2 more games. Should i be thinking of getting him in or go someone like Adcock?

 

[kakarot]

Walkers price is $498,200, not $521,600, which means he's even better value if you like him!

Cheers for the response! Haha complete oversight with the price there, I typed in some random numbers then forgot to check what it actually was!

 

[blue dreamer]

I got one for ya Rowsus. Andrew Walker or Kade Simpson this week. Ignoring BEs

Just a point that may help your decision.

And I note that you are clearly a superior supercoacher than me.

It will depend on selection this week i think, Walker played a more defensive man on man role last week with Jamieson out of the back line where Simpson played his usual rule.

For this week (not necessarily the season) watch the selections.

If Jamieson doesn't come up simpson easily for mine (again for this week only not necessarily the season).

 

[Rowsus]

Why are Simpsons scores so poor against wce?

It's really only his last 3 that are poor.
His career average against them is 95, with a high of 150, all of which is pretty much in order with his career.

 

[Rowsus]

Thoughts on Hibberd? About same price at season start. Quite consistent too

The first picked Def in my team, and very happy with his consistency. Slightly over-priced on what he should produce from here, but worth getting at some stage. Should be a top 6-8 Def for the season, and from here to round 23.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, do you know what Jobe Watson's price will be after R6 if he's Caffeinated and gets 90-100? (lets say 95)

Hi Daicos1977,
Watson is priced at $530,700, and if he scores 95 this week his price will drop to $503,000 (+/-$300). His new B/E would be approximately 136.

 

[Rowsus]

Gday Rowsus, What do you think of Hodge? Has dropped 70k. Was thinking he can ave 95 and miss 2 more games. Should i be thinking of getting him in or go someone like Adcock?

G'day johno
I like a man with realistic expectations. It's the only way to avoid disappointment!
My own thoughts are, he will miss 2.5 games from here (red vest) and will average around 91-92 for the season.
Let's Work with both figures.
To miss 2 games from here, and average 95 for the season, he will PIT65 1,622 points from here, which is 95.4/round, which at the moment will cost you $4,712/weekly point.
To miss 2.5 games from here, and average 92 for the season, he will PIT65 1,565 points from here, which is 92.1/round, which at the moment will cost you $4,884/weekly point.
Let's assume Adcock misses 1 game, and averages 89 for the season, he will PIT65 1,564 points from here, which is 88.2/round, which will cost you $4,791/weekly point.
As you can see, there isn't much in it! Under your Hodge scenario, you are just better off getting Hodge, under my Hodge scenario, I am just better off getting Adcock....... unless you think I've under-estimated Adcock, then you too would be better off with Adcock.
Pretty much a line ball decision, and I generally think in line ball decisions like this, you are better off with the player less likely to miss games and cause you problems. So Adcock, just.
Good luck

 

[Mr_Arrogance]

Hi Daicos1977,
Watson is priced at $530,700, and if he scores 95 this week his price will drop to $503,000 (+/-$300). His new B/E would be approximately 136.

I'm thinking you might mean if he scores 95 his new price will be 530k as he is currently at 551k?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

Ellis, M Thomas and Kelly all out this week for me. Was thinking Thomas and Ellis for Murphy/Swan and Robertson/Lloyd but does this change things?

As it stands i have 22 trades left with $250k. To have a full team i need 2 defender upgrades, 5 midfield upgrades and 1.5 forward upgrade (pending how Fas goes)

Any thoughts would be great!