Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
- Start date
I’ll give some thoughts based on my 2023, and what I’m thinking for 2024 based on that.
- My overall rank in 2023 was 2,745. That was lower than my regular goal of top 1,000, but I don’t hit that goal in most years (details in signature), so I would characterize it as a reasonable outcome overall.
- I generally take a GnR approach for the most part, with 2-3 key value (midpriced?) picks. I find that this works relatively well with lowish risk (and saves time, which has been helpful for me in the last few years).
- For me the key change to the game in 2023 was the extra trades and boosts we had at our disposal (/trades that we had in prior seasons, but were no longer likely to need for pandemic-related reasons in 2023 … which is much the same thing from my perspective).
- My view was that this would have several effects, and that adapting strategy accordingly would be important.
- More trades would reduce the risk of donuts, improve finished teams, possibly reduce the cash generation required from a trade to make it worthwhile, allow more injury risk to be taken, and allow more midpriced selections to be taken.
- Boosts would allow restructures to occur more readily, allow more cash cows to be grabbed on the bubble, reduce the need for one-down/one-up trades, reduce the importance of upgrade cadence (meaning that sideways injury trades during upgrade season were less damaging, because their effects don’t necessarily compound), allow more slingshots, and make it easier to navigate the byes.
- Basically all of those changes suggest that taking somewhat more risk (albeit still calculated risk) is viable, and potentially quite a logical response.
- For me this suggested taking slightly more injury risk in starting picks, trading cash cows a fraction earlier than normal, using trades earlier in the season than normal, and probably using boosts early on (to maximize the benefit gained).
- The main caveat is that I expected finished teams to be better than in previous years, so ensuring that I had the best scorers after upgrades was key. This also constrained the appropriate amount of midpricer, and perhaps injury, risk somewhat.
- I essentially finished the season with a trade in hand. I recall that there were relatively few injuries late in the season - certainly in my side, and I think overall - but I wasn’t able to extract full value from that last trade. To me that suggests that I was a little too conservative (albeit one collision or twist could have changed this outcome at the margin) and could probably take a bit more risk than I did. Even if I had copped a late donut due to an injury, that may not have been disastrous (or even a bad thing net-net) if I had generated additional points from an earlier upgrade or the like.
- The rule changes in 2024 seem to represent a further step in a similar direction. 40 trades is 10 more than we had - and still managed to complete our teams with - not so many years ago, and the structure of the game is otherwise pretty similar. That’s 10 more cash cows, or 10 more sideways injury trades, or 10 more slingshots, or some combination of the above. It’s a massive change in my view.
- Given all of this, I plan to take a further step in a similar direction to what I did last year, in dialing up my risk/aggressiveness further, in a calculated way.
- I do think that completed teams will be very strong this year (especially at the pointy end), so I am keen to start the players that I feel are a very high chance to be top scorers on their line, especially if they are not overpriced. For me this includes names like Daicos and Stewart. This squares those positions away and gives more flexibility to jump on fallen premiums and/or breakouts during the season.
- I’m inclined to take a bit more midprice and injury risk than normal - the downside risk is reduced, and accessing some of this upside may be important to keep up with the very best sides. I need to figure out how to balance this, and whether I increase the number of cheap midpricers (say 200-300k), or increase the price point at which I’m prepared to take a non-keeper value pick (eg a 375k or 425k stepping stone). I suspect it may be both, but largely the latter given these names have been somewhat “off limits”.
- The other thing I want to think through further is the byes. My current thinking is that there may be an opportunity in not reacting to them too significantly (particularly with extra trades and best 18 scoring in place), and using the extra trades to help navigate them … but it is an important change versus last season, and so warrants further thought before settling on a strategy.
- My overall rank in 2023 was 2,745. That was lower than my regular goal of top 1,000, but I don’t hit that goal in most years (details in signature), so I would characterize it as a reasonable outcome overall.
- I generally take a GnR approach for the most part, with 2-3 key value (midpriced?) picks. I find that this works relatively well with lowish risk (and saves time, which has been helpful for me in the last few years).
- For me the key change to the game in 2023 was the extra trades and boosts we had at our disposal (/trades that we had in prior seasons, but were no longer likely to need for pandemic-related reasons in 2023 … which is much the same thing from my perspective).
- My view was that this would have several effects, and that adapting strategy accordingly would be important.
- More trades would reduce the risk of donuts, improve finished teams, possibly reduce the cash generation required from a trade to make it worthwhile, allow more injury risk to be taken, and allow more midpriced selections to be taken.
- Boosts would allow restructures to occur more readily, allow more cash cows to be grabbed on the bubble, reduce the need for one-down/one-up trades, reduce the importance of upgrade cadence (meaning that sideways injury trades during upgrade season were less damaging, because their effects don’t necessarily compound), allow more slingshots, and make it easier to navigate the byes.
- Basically all of those changes suggest that taking somewhat more risk (albeit still calculated risk) is viable, and potentially quite a logical response.
- For me this suggested taking slightly more injury risk in starting picks, trading cash cows a fraction earlier than normal, using trades earlier in the season than normal, and probably using boosts early on (to maximize the benefit gained).
- The main caveat is that I expected finished teams to be better than in previous years, so ensuring that I had the best scorers after upgrades was key. This also constrained the appropriate amount of midpricer, and perhaps injury, risk somewhat.
- I essentially finished the season with a trade in hand. I recall that there were relatively few injuries late in the season - certainly in my side, and I think overall - but I wasn’t able to extract full value from that last trade. To me that suggests that I was a little too conservative (albeit one collision or twist could have changed this outcome at the margin) and could probably take a bit more risk than I did. Even if I had copped a late donut due to an injury, that may not have been disastrous (or even a bad thing net-net) if I had generated additional points from an earlier upgrade or the like.
- The rule changes in 2024 seem to represent a further step in a similar direction. 40 trades is 10 more than we had - and still managed to complete our teams with - not so many years ago, and the structure of the game is otherwise pretty similar. That’s 10 more cash cows, or 10 more sideways injury trades, or 10 more slingshots, or some combination of the above. It’s a massive change in my view.
- Given all of this, I plan to take a further step in a similar direction to what I did last year, in dialing up my risk/aggressiveness further, in a calculated way.
- I do think that completed teams will be very strong this year (especially at the pointy end), so I am keen to start the players that I feel are a very high chance to be top scorers on their line, especially if they are not overpriced. For me this includes names like Daicos and Stewart. This squares those positions away and gives more flexibility to jump on fallen premiums and/or breakouts during the season.
- I’m inclined to take a bit more midprice and injury risk than normal - the downside risk is reduced, and accessing some of this upside may be important to keep up with the very best sides. I need to figure out how to balance this, and whether I increase the number of cheap midpricers (say 200-300k), or increase the price point at which I’m prepared to take a non-keeper value pick (eg a 375k or 425k stepping stone). I suspect it may be both, but largely the latter given these names have been somewhat “off limits”.
- The other thing I want to think through further is the byes. My current thinking is that there may be an opportunity in not reacting to them too significantly (particularly with extra trades and best 18 scoring in place), and using the extra trades to help navigate them … but it is an important change versus last season, and so warrants further thought before settling on a strategy.
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I asked the Copilot AI in MS Edge the following question:
select me a supercoach team for AFL 2024
It's reply was:
Selecting a SuperCoach team for AFL 2024 involves strategic planning and understanding of the game. Here are some tips and players to consider based on recent analysis:
Strategy:
Not sure I'm ready to follow it's advice, but interesting none the less.
select me a supercoach team for AFL 2024
It's reply was:
Selecting a SuperCoach team for AFL 2024 involves strategic planning and understanding of the game. Here are some tips and players to consider based on recent analysis:
Strategy:
- Mastering AFL SuperCoach 2024 involves understanding the best strategy for byes.
- Use a spreadsheet to plan your picks, set tiers, find value players, and dominate your SuperCoach draft.
- Hayden Young (FRE) - $525,100: After moving into the midfield at the end of 2023, Hayden Young scored 123, 118, 113, and 111 in consecutive games. Young will continue in the midfield this season and has spent the summer training in the role.
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (STK) - $475,800: One of the breakout players of 2023, Wanganeen-Milera’s average jumped from 51.8 to 85.1 under Ross Lyon.
- Keidean Coleman (BRI) - $398,800: From Round 19 through to the end of finals, Coleman averaged 99.72 points per game.
- Braeden Campbell (SYD) - $386,600: One of the best kicks in the AFL, Campbell played 23 games for the Swans in 2023, but only averaged 69.2 points per game.
- Changkuoth Jiath (HAW) - $347,900: It feels like we haven’t seen the best of Changkuoth Jiath in the last two seasons, with injuries keeping him from continuity.
Not sure I'm ready to follow it's advice, but interesting none the less.
What I learned:
- Tom Stewart is the Wolverine when recovering from injuries. Hold Stewart in future.
- Don’t trust Melbourne when it comes to injury reports. False hope in Oliver injury based on above learning.
- Upgrade mid-pricers to premiums when they’ve had a string of good scores, especially when their coaches have a history of moving magnets. E.g started Ziebell, regretted holding him.
- When you start seeing rookies flagging in fitness during games, get them out. Especially from weaker teams that have no choice but to play them.
- Don’t overthink captaincy, there’s usually a reason why you believe someone will score well in a given week. Back that instinct.
- Don’t run out of trades in rd20.
Can’t wait for my new learning this season!
- Tom Stewart is the Wolverine when recovering from injuries. Hold Stewart in future.
- Don’t trust Melbourne when it comes to injury reports. False hope in Oliver injury based on above learning.
- Upgrade mid-pricers to premiums when they’ve had a string of good scores, especially when their coaches have a history of moving magnets. E.g started Ziebell, regretted holding him.
- When you start seeing rookies flagging in fitness during games, get them out. Especially from weaker teams that have no choice but to play them.
- Don’t overthink captaincy, there’s usually a reason why you believe someone will score well in a given week. Back that instinct.
- Don’t run out of trades in rd20.
Can’t wait for my new learning this season!
I was one with a career worst year in 2023.
There were some crappy moments and in the end I think I somewhat gave up. Or that might just be an excuse for getting into a place with no options left anyway...
Steele injured R2, trade him to LDU, missed the late out, then he stinks it up for weeks, then gets injured.
Docherty goes down R4.
First upgrade in about R6, used the boost, and all three players I brought in got injured in game
Held Oliver (of course).
And a bunch more.
It just sucked and any forward momentum drained away as I shuffled players around.
Probably one big learning was that I could hold rookies 1-2 weeks longer rather than dumping them straight after a down game. It only takes one decent score to get the cash going again when it stalls.
There were some crappy moments and in the end I think I somewhat gave up. Or that might just be an excuse for getting into a place with no options left anyway...
Steele injured R2, trade him to LDU, missed the late out, then he stinks it up for weeks, then gets injured.
Docherty goes down R4.
First upgrade in about R6, used the boost, and all three players I brought in got injured in game
Held Oliver (of course).
And a bunch more.
It just sucked and any forward momentum drained away as I shuffled players around.
Probably one big learning was that I could hold rookies 1-2 weeks longer rather than dumping them straight after a down game. It only takes one decent score to get the cash going again when it stalls.
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- 6 Jul 2012
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- 4,890
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- AFL Club
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Sorry, welcome then, didn't notice first post. Cracking site to discuss theories.
My focus is league and yeah, some players use to run out of trades early and now can make it to the finals!
boosts, mine have gone quickly each year, more due to injury. However, would I have held Stewart (ended up out for only one game) last year if I had 30 trades, maybe.
My focus is league and yeah, some players use to run out of trades early and now can make it to the finals!
boosts, mine have gone quickly each year, more due to injury. However, would I have held Stewart (ended up out for only one game) last year if I had 30 trades, maybe.
I was one with a career worst year in 2023.
There were some crappy moments and in the end I think I somewhat gave up. Or that might just be an excuse for getting into a place with no options left anyway...
Steele injured R2, trade him to LDU, missed the late out, then he stinks it up for weeks, then gets injured.
Docherty goes down R4.
First upgrade in about R6, used the boost, and all three players I brought in got injured in game
Held Oliver (of course).
And a bunch more.
It just sucked and any forward momentum drained away as I shuffled players around.
Probably one big learning was that I could hold rookies 1-2 weeks longer rather than dumping them straight after a down game. It only takes one decent score to get the cash going again when it stalls.
There were some crappy moments and in the end I think I somewhat gave up. Or that might just be an excuse for getting into a place with no options left anyway...
Steele injured R2, trade him to LDU, missed the late out, then he stinks it up for weeks, then gets injured.
Docherty goes down R4.
First upgrade in about R6, used the boost, and all three players I brought in got injured in game
Held Oliver (of course).
And a bunch more.
It just sucked and any forward momentum drained away as I shuffled players around.
Probably one big learning was that I could hold rookies 1-2 weeks longer rather than dumping them straight after a down game. It only takes one decent score to get the cash going again when it stalls.
- Joined
- 6 Jul 2012
- Messages
- 4,890
- Likes
- 11,150
- AFL Club
- West Coast
I was one with a career worst year in 2023.
There were some crappy moments and in the end I think I somewhat gave up. Or that might just be an excuse for getting into a place with no options left anyway...
Steele injured R2, trade him to LDU, missed the late out, then he stinks it up for weeks, then gets injured.
Docherty goes down R4.
First upgrade in about R6, used the boost, and all three players I brought in got injured in game
Held Oliver (of course).
And a bunch more.
It just sucked and any forward momentum drained away as I shuffled players around.
Probably one big learning was that I could hold rookies 1-2 weeks longer rather than dumping them straight after a down game. It only takes one decent score to get the cash going again when it stalls.
There were some crappy moments and in the end I think I somewhat gave up. Or that might just be an excuse for getting into a place with no options left anyway...
Steele injured R2, trade him to LDU, missed the late out, then he stinks it up for weeks, then gets injured.
Docherty goes down R4.
First upgrade in about R6, used the boost, and all three players I brought in got injured in game
Held Oliver (of course).
And a bunch more.
It just sucked and any forward momentum drained away as I shuffled players around.
Probably one big learning was that I could hold rookies 1-2 weeks longer rather than dumping them straight after a down game. It only takes one decent score to get the cash going again when it stalls.
Stewart, Doc, Gawn, DCam, Fyfe, Miller, Oliver (held for 7) plus Flanders, Winged GWS to name a few.
The only upside was ZIebell, Worpel, English, Dawson, Daicos brought in plus some cash release which burned through 15 trades in 5 weeks seeing my team rise from 72k in round 4 to 6k by the end.
Key to staying positive was to use every injury to your advantage rather than sideways swap.
Hey Neil ole mate, I had Owens for a good part of last year and to be honest I felt a bit let down by him in the end.
That says nothing about how he'll go this year, he's obviously a very talented young player...but I probably won't start with him, instead he'll be a wait and watch, and hope he goes nuts at some point and I jump on at the right time
That says nothing about how he'll go this year, he's obviously a very talented young player...but I probably won't start with him, instead he'll be a wait and watch, and hope he goes nuts at some point and I jump on at the right time