Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

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That's what I'm getting at though. Raw stats aside, Petracca's better SC scoring year was when he was playing (relative to the worse SC scoring year) away from the place where one would expect he would have a better opportunity to do something that allows him to score.

But where he went to, he could have been much more effective in what he was doing and having an impact on the game. Eg half forward. Popowski's scoring theory had some things occurring in the forward line scoring more than in the mids (excluding goals). Eg a contested mark in the fwd line scores over a point more than in the mids. One percenters like knock ons and shepherds all score more in the fwd line. And according to him a running bounce in the fwd line is worth 3.5 SC vs 1.4 in the mids. Certainly not saying his scoring theory is gospel. Just suggesting there could be SC scoring variables that account for his better scoring.
 
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Long way to go, but current clubhouse leader on how I will likely set up my rucks and forward line. Doubt I will be alone.
View attachment 68714 View attachment 68715
I thought I had my rucks all set up going English, Gawn, Naismith.

Naismaith offers the best pts/$ if he's on the field.
Gawn looked imperious on the weekend at a discount price.
English just motored along to a 130 in the praccy and has WCE in R3 where he could conceivably score 180+. By Round 5 he may not only be more expensive than he started but also be the highest scoring SC player.

I want them all on the ground!
 
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But where he went to, he could have been much more effective in what he was doing and having an impact on the game. Eg half forward. Popowski's scoring theory had some things occurring in the forward line scoring more than in the mids (excluding goals). Eg a contested mark in the fwd line scores over a point more than in the mids. One percenters like knock ons and shepherds all score more in the fwd line. And according to him a running bounce in the fwd line is worth 3.5 SC vs 1.4 in the mids. Certainly not saying his scoring theory is gospel. Just suggesting there could be SC scoring variables that account for his better scoring.
Precisely, which potentially militates against greater CBA attendance in 2024 giving rise to an uptick in scoring.
 
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I thought I had my rucks all set up going English, Gawn, Naismith.

Naismaith offers the best pts/$ if he's on the field.
Gawn looked imperious on the weekend at a discount price.
English just motored along to a 130 in the praccy and has WCE in R3 where he could conceivably score 180+. By Round 5 he may not only be more expensive than he started but also be the highest scoring SC player.

I want them all on the ground!
Im with you on this. I think English will ave 130 this year andbe No.1 player.
 
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I didn't notice this bulk wing stuff at all.

19/25 CBAs for Serong was relatively high (same number as Wines/Fyfe with only Young's 20 being higher and Brayshaw/Rozee's 13 being much lower) and he seemed to be at plenty of stoppages around the ground from what I saw watching the game (y)
He was on the far wing which was the side the wind was blowing heavily towards and so most of the action was out there but was definitely on the wing a lot positionally. I'd rather he played midfield and had no CBA than the reverse. He could be fine but it was a big concern for me as I don't think he suits the position at all. Not getting the mid premiums right is season ending. Best case I think I saw enough to question if he has the upside I originally thought.

If Trac plays well round 0, is anyone seriously considering him despite the early bye/ 2 byes overall?

Just looking into it further, dees share that bye with the tigers only - so just Gibcus/ Short/ Naismith SC relevant.

I think he is a lock to finish top 5 mids, gives an awesome VC/capt option & his byes don’t clash with Bont & Daicos. I guess the argument is most will have Gawn anyway for that option. The more I look into the premium mids, Trac is one that I have the least doubts about - looks in great shape/ same as always … just wished he had fixed his kicking issues 😂
Not interested personally. Last year is the complete anomaly as far as him scoring consistently, I've got the bye knocking off 7 or so points per round through the first 6 rounds and I just struggle to come up with an upside case, his kicking looked worse in the preseason than ever and that's his hard limiter from going any further.

It’s a poor idea to lock in all 6 premium defenders with so many good options & guys like Martin/ McKercher etc available as defenders round 6.
I actually disagree with that this year. Especially given Daicos starts with DPP and Young is likely to get it also. We have so many trades and the boosts, taking the guys with the most value and then stepping them up is going to be the big play this year. More akin to AFL Fantasy where that's always been a big part of the strategy (their stupid price change system makes it even more important there).

Even more so where it's going to be best 18 for the majority of the start of the season so the rookie starters matter even less, you don't need anywhere near as much balance when the last 4 rookies don't count anyway and you can probably loop a couple to mean you get 6 or 7 chances at increasing the couple of scores that do count.

More than ever, the final teams are going to need to be nearly perfect for the last 8 rounds but the starting quota goes out the window with so many extra trades and the boosts and byes allowing them to be used more easily.

Probably a bit late for this but......

High end midfield churn:

The following is a list of top 8 mids by year who did not make the top 8 the following year. The number in brackets is their midfield ranking for the following year. I haven't taken into account DPPs

2018: Titch (DNP), Oliver (10), Cogs (25) If we ignore Titch for his LTI, then Laird went from 9th to 33rd
2019: Fyfe (10), Cripps (44), Dunkley (31), Danger (11), Bont (9)
2020: Neale (25), Trac (11), Kelly (19), Merrett (12)
2021: Steele (14), Titch (43), Walsh (11), Parish (12)
2022: Neale (18), Touk (33), Macrae (28), Mills (56)

So in any year we can expect around half of that top 8 to not be top 8 the following year. Of those that miss out, there is a 50/50 chance that they will come in 9th to 12th. Not the end of the world.

Here is this year's starting top 8. Which 4 to miss? Which 4 to miss badly?
Bont, Oliver, Trac, Laird, Zerrett, Daicos*, Libba, Dawson. I'll add Spudniacke due to Daicos being a defender
Oliver - Obvious reasons, only needs to be 5% off the pace and he falls out.
Laird - Talk of playing forward, already pushed out a bit and the mix will be interesting. (FWIW, also the best bet to go to 130 in the group).
Libba - It's really just age, durability and the random 30+ breakout last year that has pretty awful repeat history.
Trac - If Oliver is struggling then a lot more attention can go into Trac.

To be fair, Bont is the only one of those names that would genuinely surprise me if he's not in the top 10 mids, the only thing I could see causing that is injury. Daicos could definitely be tagged to oblivion and not handle them, he's also now got a durability question to answer.



Ive gone from having reid at F1 two weeks ago, now he is at F5. How things change.
If it makes you feel better I've gone from Reid at F4 to not even in my forwards :)


If there is any update on Nank being more like a month away, this setup really appeals
Nank expected for round 1 at this point, conservatively would be round 2. Obviously no track record to know if Yze is a 2 ruck kind of guy so flying blind. Naismith is cheap enough to be worth taking the flier on though, Nank is the kind of injury that definitely could flare up or just not get to the 100% level to play for a lot longer than expected.
 
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After the Darcy bombshell I’m having a look at a Jackson R2 team, paired with Gawn. Hoping to ride him through some of the early byes and then can look to jump on someone like Briggs, Grundy (if he actually looks legit grabbed after his bye) or English (if he’s affordable). Just think he’s far more appealing than Grundy.. especially with the early bye and means I can keep the forward line stacked with the value guys I like.
 
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