Strategy 2024: Round 8 Trades
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Rnd 8 SuperCoach Trade Talk: Sweeten the Kitty - Honeyball
RND 8 SUPERCOACH TRADE TALK: SWEETEN THE KITTY
Posted on April 30, 2024 by SuperCoach Scout
Teams are starting to drastically take shape earlier than we expected with all these boosts galore and the earlier price rises… So, trades are as vital as ever in shaping your finished product as you storm up the ranks and BOY, have I got you covered!
Jordon Sweet (RUC) – $158k
This player shapes everything for us this week. We all want him, we all need him, its just a matter of how, as this year everyone’s ruck line looks vastly different to each other’s. Let’s start off with what we are buying. Sweet is likely to be the #1 ruck for Port Adeliade for what is reported as the next 4-5 weeks. He attended 92% of CBA’s and 75% of all ruck contests for them, these are absurdly good numbers. He had 12 hit outs to advantage, 6 tackles and 6 1%ers which boosted his score to a monster 136 points. One thing I do want to flag with everyone, is he only had 11 touches around the ground while most of his points came from his ruck work. The concerning thing about this is Rowan Marshall (his opponent last week) is ranked as the 2ND EASIEST for ruckmen to win the hitout on. This week, he instead faces Riley O’Brien who ranks the 2nd HARDEST for ruck to win the hitout on… I just want to flag what we are buying here; I think if you expect more big scores like this you’re probably going to be in for a rude awakening. I see Sweet more as your 90 average guy. The good news is we only need him for a month or so to make us the cash before we offload and 90’s would do the trick perfectly. Depending on who you have in your ruck line will determine if I think him at R2 is a play or not. I’d tick off and be comfortable with trading any of Marshall, Grundy, Meek, Naismith and any R3 loops you have to him. If you are running Gawn and English then R3 would be your play. MUST BUY.
Riley Garica (FWD) – $123k
Anyone who went early on this guy last week has absolutely been kissed on the you know what. He is a shaky fringe player under Bevo. Red flag central. Garcia was actually going to be the sub last week until Libba was a late out with illness and now Cody Weightman is out for a long period and Rhylee West has been suspended for 1 game… So, it terms of this week, I absolutely think he should get the full game. But from next week onwards…? I’m not so sure. His VFL numbers are elite playing through the middle. The upside in this pick is high, but with both Libba and West back in the side as well as Daniel lurking as the sub or in the two’s, it spells 23rd/24th man trouble. It’s a huge risk to take, you’re basically hoping he plays so well he’s undroppable this week. PASS.
Jake Rogers (MID) – $148k
He is a freak electrifying talent with midfield pedigree who has unfortunately been squeezed into the team by taking Malcolm Rosas small forward role. Rosas is still 6 weeks away so his job security should be pretty good until you’d need to cull him. He had 22 touches, 13 contested, 1 goal, 3 tackles, 8 score involvements and 4 direct goal assists in an all-round unreal game for 98 SuperCoach. The concerning thing is the role is very downhill skiing and he won’t get to play West Coast every week who basically did not show up in that second half. Against the tougher Swans he scored 28 points in a FULL game the week before and gets Brisbane and Geelong either side of North in his next 3. He would need to feast on the Roos and somehow salvage a 60 against the Lions to be worth it. PASS.
Bailey Dale (DEF) – $457k
I feel like every man and his dog is asking me about this guy this week… And with full transparency, I am somewhat biased as I owned Bailey Dale as a POD all last year when I was top 100 after he was cheap at a similar point of year. And ultimately, he was one of a few downfalls in my team… So, his name still stings a little. Ultimately, at his price he is value. He has shown he has bottom tier keeper scoring in him for years now so you can definitely do worse. My main issue with Bailey Dale is he is a prone to a 50 or a 60 as a stinker score semi regularly and he doesn’t really have the ceiling to make up for it. You may think that sounds silly coming off a 170 and 130 but I’m not sure you can count these scores as likely to continue with NO Daniel or Richards in that backline for both those. With Libba due to return this week, I expect Richards to go back into the defence and restrict his ceiling once again. No Caleb Daniel in the side could potentially raise his average a little compared to the last few years but ultimately, I think you’re buying a 95-98 average guy and that’s leaking points on the very best in defence. Taking cheap premiums at this time of year is usually something I like to do, but I’m not sure we need to this year with the extra trades. I guess this just depends on your structure and what you can afford. PREFER NOT.
Jordan Dawson (MID) – $558k
I was big on this guy last week as a cheaper and point of difference alternative to the masses jumping on Sam Walsh and he didn’t disappoint. Owners were stiff in the sense he sat the last 20 mins of the game as a precaution because the game was well and truly done so a 150+ went begging. For non-owners, this has kept him even cheaper knowing it probably would’ve been a 150 to back up his 170 the week prior. The positive news is he did this with Crouch back in the side as well which was a knock last week. Although to me, the most pleasing thing was seeing his old role and form return. When Dawson is at this best, he is starting CBA’s and drifting behind the ball or on the wing to take those intercepts and slice up the opposition with his kicking in transition. His transition points have been so far down on last year’s numbers so to see this return its very promising. In terms of opposition, Dawson has played very restrictive teams when it comes to transition points so far this year and from Round 12 onwards, he gets a crazy EASY run for opposition points leaked to transition. His opponent this week in Port are VERY tough so don’t expect a huge score this week… But we all know he is a long term play with his breakeven of 24 and I think he is a safe 115 averaging for the rest of the year. JUMP ON.
Tom Powell (FWD) – $441k
The alarm bells are ringing with this pick but unfortunately it seems like it’s a luxury move and one that you can leave on the back burner. Phillips came back in the side, and he is a MID only type of footballer, as well as Simpkin got his CBA role back. Will Phillips has bust written all over him, he was average in the VFL and then somehow got a recall and was average in the scenarios before being subbed. I can’t see them persisting with him. If he gets dropped, we could definitely see Powells midfield role return which is why I’m happy enough holding and continuing upgrading elsewhere. Worst case we can bye flip him if he never gets the role back using the third trade in byes and not halting our upgrades. If he gets the role back, we know his a 90+ guy who could be useful at F6 or even a F7/M9 swing… Unless your team is literally perfection, I’d rather priorities getting other rookies off the field first. HOLD.
Rowan Marshall (RUC) – $545k
This pick is one of the hardest reads I’ve had this season. Is he injured, is he exhausted, is he out of form. Genuinely might be all 3. I think you have to take the L on this one and flick him to Sweet this week. His breakeven is 198, you just simply can’t hold that. He has already dropped 60k after his 57 average across the last 2 weeks and gets tough opposition in Xerri this week. The hardest part is accepting there is every chance you’ll likely trade him back in in 4-5 weeks if he finds form and Sweet is ready to cull… That’s what non-Marhsall owners will be targeting, so if you’re okay with that, its definitely the play this week. His bye is late so he may just need a rest and a freshen up before then, but the Saints have 8 of their last 9 games at Marvel, so he is someone you will want to finish with. TRADE.
Jeremy Sharp, Oliver Dempsey & Aaron Cadman
If you own any of these guys, I think they’re just must involve in your trade plans. Unfortunately, Dempsey hasn’t quite kicked on as expected and if you jumped on late, he hasn’t quite made the cash you were after and the other two are primed for the culling after well and truly doing their jobs. It’s so easy to get stuck offloading your Powells, Massimo’s, Williams, Roberts etc instead as it lets you go all the way up to an Uber premium type but its something you need to try and avoid. Offload these cheaper types first, if it means you need to look at a value premium type like Dawson over Serong for example, do it. OFFLOAD.
Zac Williams & Massimo D’Ambrosio
In an ideal world I still think these guys are holds. Williams hasn’t quite hit his straps yet but there is every chance he starts to get their soon and his subbed-out game rolls out of his breakeven after this game so his BE won’t look as bad as it does this week. Massimo if back in the side could greatly have benefited from the freshen up but would need to see what his role is like as the Hawks have slowly brought in the Morrison, Amon and Mitchell types which no doubt has affected D’Ambrosio’s scoring. Williams should be the better scorer you’d think, but Massimo has the more friendly breakeven this week if you just plan on offloading the other one next week anyway. If you can make it work, saving at least one of these guys as one of your last upgraded on field picks could be beneficial. EXPENDABLE.
RND 8 SUPERCOACH TRADE TALK: SWEETEN THE KITTY
Posted on April 30, 2024 by SuperCoach Scout
Teams are starting to drastically take shape earlier than we expected with all these boosts galore and the earlier price rises… So, trades are as vital as ever in shaping your finished product as you storm up the ranks and BOY, have I got you covered!
Jordon Sweet (RUC) – $158k
This player shapes everything for us this week. We all want him, we all need him, its just a matter of how, as this year everyone’s ruck line looks vastly different to each other’s. Let’s start off with what we are buying. Sweet is likely to be the #1 ruck for Port Adeliade for what is reported as the next 4-5 weeks. He attended 92% of CBA’s and 75% of all ruck contests for them, these are absurdly good numbers. He had 12 hit outs to advantage, 6 tackles and 6 1%ers which boosted his score to a monster 136 points. One thing I do want to flag with everyone, is he only had 11 touches around the ground while most of his points came from his ruck work. The concerning thing about this is Rowan Marshall (his opponent last week) is ranked as the 2ND EASIEST for ruckmen to win the hitout on. This week, he instead faces Riley O’Brien who ranks the 2nd HARDEST for ruck to win the hitout on… I just want to flag what we are buying here; I think if you expect more big scores like this you’re probably going to be in for a rude awakening. I see Sweet more as your 90 average guy. The good news is we only need him for a month or so to make us the cash before we offload and 90’s would do the trick perfectly. Depending on who you have in your ruck line will determine if I think him at R2 is a play or not. I’d tick off and be comfortable with trading any of Marshall, Grundy, Meek, Naismith and any R3 loops you have to him. If you are running Gawn and English then R3 would be your play. MUST BUY.
Riley Garica (FWD) – $123k
Anyone who went early on this guy last week has absolutely been kissed on the you know what. He is a shaky fringe player under Bevo. Red flag central. Garcia was actually going to be the sub last week until Libba was a late out with illness and now Cody Weightman is out for a long period and Rhylee West has been suspended for 1 game… So, it terms of this week, I absolutely think he should get the full game. But from next week onwards…? I’m not so sure. His VFL numbers are elite playing through the middle. The upside in this pick is high, but with both Libba and West back in the side as well as Daniel lurking as the sub or in the two’s, it spells 23rd/24th man trouble. It’s a huge risk to take, you’re basically hoping he plays so well he’s undroppable this week. PASS.
Jake Rogers (MID) – $148k
He is a freak electrifying talent with midfield pedigree who has unfortunately been squeezed into the team by taking Malcolm Rosas small forward role. Rosas is still 6 weeks away so his job security should be pretty good until you’d need to cull him. He had 22 touches, 13 contested, 1 goal, 3 tackles, 8 score involvements and 4 direct goal assists in an all-round unreal game for 98 SuperCoach. The concerning thing is the role is very downhill skiing and he won’t get to play West Coast every week who basically did not show up in that second half. Against the tougher Swans he scored 28 points in a FULL game the week before and gets Brisbane and Geelong either side of North in his next 3. He would need to feast on the Roos and somehow salvage a 60 against the Lions to be worth it. PASS.
Bailey Dale (DEF) – $457k
I feel like every man and his dog is asking me about this guy this week… And with full transparency, I am somewhat biased as I owned Bailey Dale as a POD all last year when I was top 100 after he was cheap at a similar point of year. And ultimately, he was one of a few downfalls in my team… So, his name still stings a little. Ultimately, at his price he is value. He has shown he has bottom tier keeper scoring in him for years now so you can definitely do worse. My main issue with Bailey Dale is he is a prone to a 50 or a 60 as a stinker score semi regularly and he doesn’t really have the ceiling to make up for it. You may think that sounds silly coming off a 170 and 130 but I’m not sure you can count these scores as likely to continue with NO Daniel or Richards in that backline for both those. With Libba due to return this week, I expect Richards to go back into the defence and restrict his ceiling once again. No Caleb Daniel in the side could potentially raise his average a little compared to the last few years but ultimately, I think you’re buying a 95-98 average guy and that’s leaking points on the very best in defence. Taking cheap premiums at this time of year is usually something I like to do, but I’m not sure we need to this year with the extra trades. I guess this just depends on your structure and what you can afford. PREFER NOT.
Jordan Dawson (MID) – $558k
I was big on this guy last week as a cheaper and point of difference alternative to the masses jumping on Sam Walsh and he didn’t disappoint. Owners were stiff in the sense he sat the last 20 mins of the game as a precaution because the game was well and truly done so a 150+ went begging. For non-owners, this has kept him even cheaper knowing it probably would’ve been a 150 to back up his 170 the week prior. The positive news is he did this with Crouch back in the side as well which was a knock last week. Although to me, the most pleasing thing was seeing his old role and form return. When Dawson is at this best, he is starting CBA’s and drifting behind the ball or on the wing to take those intercepts and slice up the opposition with his kicking in transition. His transition points have been so far down on last year’s numbers so to see this return its very promising. In terms of opposition, Dawson has played very restrictive teams when it comes to transition points so far this year and from Round 12 onwards, he gets a crazy EASY run for opposition points leaked to transition. His opponent this week in Port are VERY tough so don’t expect a huge score this week… But we all know he is a long term play with his breakeven of 24 and I think he is a safe 115 averaging for the rest of the year. JUMP ON.
Tom Powell (FWD) – $441k
The alarm bells are ringing with this pick but unfortunately it seems like it’s a luxury move and one that you can leave on the back burner. Phillips came back in the side, and he is a MID only type of footballer, as well as Simpkin got his CBA role back. Will Phillips has bust written all over him, he was average in the VFL and then somehow got a recall and was average in the scenarios before being subbed. I can’t see them persisting with him. If he gets dropped, we could definitely see Powells midfield role return which is why I’m happy enough holding and continuing upgrading elsewhere. Worst case we can bye flip him if he never gets the role back using the third trade in byes and not halting our upgrades. If he gets the role back, we know his a 90+ guy who could be useful at F6 or even a F7/M9 swing… Unless your team is literally perfection, I’d rather priorities getting other rookies off the field first. HOLD.
Rowan Marshall (RUC) – $545k
This pick is one of the hardest reads I’ve had this season. Is he injured, is he exhausted, is he out of form. Genuinely might be all 3. I think you have to take the L on this one and flick him to Sweet this week. His breakeven is 198, you just simply can’t hold that. He has already dropped 60k after his 57 average across the last 2 weeks and gets tough opposition in Xerri this week. The hardest part is accepting there is every chance you’ll likely trade him back in in 4-5 weeks if he finds form and Sweet is ready to cull… That’s what non-Marhsall owners will be targeting, so if you’re okay with that, its definitely the play this week. His bye is late so he may just need a rest and a freshen up before then, but the Saints have 8 of their last 9 games at Marvel, so he is someone you will want to finish with. TRADE.
Jeremy Sharp, Oliver Dempsey & Aaron Cadman
If you own any of these guys, I think they’re just must involve in your trade plans. Unfortunately, Dempsey hasn’t quite kicked on as expected and if you jumped on late, he hasn’t quite made the cash you were after and the other two are primed for the culling after well and truly doing their jobs. It’s so easy to get stuck offloading your Powells, Massimo’s, Williams, Roberts etc instead as it lets you go all the way up to an Uber premium type but its something you need to try and avoid. Offload these cheaper types first, if it means you need to look at a value premium type like Dawson over Serong for example, do it. OFFLOAD.
Zac Williams & Massimo D’Ambrosio
In an ideal world I still think these guys are holds. Williams hasn’t quite hit his straps yet but there is every chance he starts to get their soon and his subbed-out game rolls out of his breakeven after this game so his BE won’t look as bad as it does this week. Massimo if back in the side could greatly have benefited from the freshen up but would need to see what his role is like as the Hawks have slowly brought in the Morrison, Amon and Mitchell types which no doubt has affected D’Ambrosio’s scoring. Williams should be the better scorer you’d think, but Massimo has the more friendly breakeven this week if you just plan on offloading the other one next week anyway. If you can make it work, saving at least one of these guys as one of your last upgraded on field picks could be beneficial. EXPENDABLE.
Here are my 3 options for the week keen to get everyone's thought's? Sitting at 2k overall and have Zwill and Powell that I'm thinking of ditching. Reckon Zwill is going ok other than the injury affected score, don't watch north games but have been told Powell has been stuck at half fwd.
Comden > Sweet
Wehr > Rogers
Powell > English
Comden > Sweet
Wehr > Rogers
ZWill > Dale
Comden > Sweet
Wehr > Rogers + 263k
Comden > Sweet
Wehr > Rogers
Powell > English
Comden > Sweet
Wehr > Rogers
ZWill > Dale
Comden > Sweet
Wehr > Rogers + 263k
Still not sure how I should be going about trades this week.
Thinking a downgrade of Cadman to R. Garcia/Rogers/McAulliffe to facilitate an upgrade, funded by Comben/D'Ambrosio.
My #1 target is Tom Green. If I grab Rogers, I can only get him via D'Ambrosio, who has the lower B/E compared with Comben, but Comben can play in the forward line and has a favourable match up. Or I can keep both and just not upgrade which seems like a poor move.
Thinking a downgrade of Cadman to R. Garcia/Rogers/McAulliffe to facilitate an upgrade, funded by Comben/D'Ambrosio.
My #1 target is Tom Green. If I grab Rogers, I can only get him via D'Ambrosio, who has the lower B/E compared with Comben, but Comben can play in the forward line and has a favourable match up. Or I can keep both and just not upgrade which seems like a poor move.
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I guess it comes down to what your priorities are, which looks to me like you want to complete your mids before concentrating on the defence and forwards. Selling Massimo get's you your target and Graham fills his spot, McKercher looks like he's getting most of the kickouts for North (if Fisher doesn't interfere) so could easily match Massimo's output as could Graham.
Might flick Powell this week actually. Not fussed about his Saints matchup as I can shift Reid forward into his F6 spot. If his form improves I'll get him back after his bye for Reid. I started Powell so am content in trading him out for only the single trade so far.
Will hold Roberts for an extra week with his 37 BE before turning he & Williams into the GWS forward & Josh Dunkley next week.
Rd 8: Grundy, Powell & Dempsey out. Bont, Moore & Sweet in.
Rd 9: Roberts & Zilliams out. Dunks & Rookie in.
Merrett I look to get in at Crouch's bye in Rd 15.
Will hold Roberts for an extra week with his 37 BE before turning he & Williams into the GWS forward & Josh Dunkley next week.
Rd 8: Grundy, Powell & Dempsey out. Bont, Moore & Sweet in.
Rd 9: Roberts & Zilliams out. Dunks & Rookie in.
Merrett I look to get in at Crouch's bye in Rd 15.
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