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Strategy 2024: Round 13 Trades
- Thread starter Tamuhawk
- Start date
I think at this stage, I will be going up to Neale/Dunkley, using some of the cash from Clohesy to Dawson, LDU is an option too, as far as Merrett goes I think in a 2 horse race, Merrett would be my preferred option, but given the other 3 are bye free, that gives them a slight advantage over Merrett IMO.
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Out: S Clohesy, D Wilson and H Garcia
In: W Dawson, D Zorko and G Payne
Dawson opens up the def/fwd link after acquiring Fisher last round. Garcia, Graham and Moyle traded next round for mid (via Fyfe), Blight and fwd (via Livingstone). Ideally leaves the last fwd spot for Flanders. Alternatives to Zorko would be Flanders before his bye or Bolton/McKay/Moore. Could also grab a Laird type if I wish to push Oliver to the bench.
In: W Dawson, D Zorko and G Payne
Dawson opens up the def/fwd link after acquiring Fisher last round. Garcia, Graham and Moyle traded next round for mid (via Fyfe), Blight and fwd (via Livingstone). Ideally leaves the last fwd spot for Flanders. Alternatives to Zorko would be Flanders before his bye or Bolton/McKay/Moore. Could also grab a Laird type if I wish to push Oliver to the bench.
Rd 13 SuperCoach Trade Talk: Warming to Warner - Honeyball
RD 13 SUPERCOACH TRADE TALK: WARMING TO WARNER
Posted on June 3, 2024 by SuperCoach Scout Leave a comment
We’re heading into a Round where we have a crack at BEST 18, even though most teams will easily be able to field 22 players this week. Therefore, it’s pivotal to make the most of this opportunity and ensure you’re covered for numbers over the two more difficult byes by targeting some of these MUST HAVE guys coming off their bye!
Chad Warner – $608k (MID) – 5%
This bloke has absolutely turned it on and he’s on a fast track to superstardom. He has a 5 Round average of over 130 which includes two mammoth scores of 172 and 144 in his last two. The interesting part to his game, is the fact he hasn’t been requiring large centre bounce numbers to reach these scores. On the season, Warner is averaging 60% CBA’s and over his last 5 games which we touched on, this number is still 58%. You can look at it two ways, either his floor and ceiling are not affected by low CBA numbers and therefore you consider it a safe return on his floor, or you can look at it as is he really going to continue kicking 2-4 goals a game to continue this trend? The price point isn’t exactly cheap anymore, but it is still reasonable. This certainly adds some risk as you really need a big 115+ return on investment for the rest of the year to make it viable. The run home in terms of his fixture is slightly above average and that kicks off with a very favourable matchup against an undermanned Cats midfield at home this week which puts him right amongst VC territory. Honestly, sometimes Supercoach picks are swayed by the “fun” factor and owning the Chad has this written all over him. There is quite a few midfield premiums coming off the bye this week, but no doubt this guy will be near the top of most people’s lists. TEMPTED.
Will Dawson – $117k (DEF/FWD) – 10%
As it stands, its likely this man is your #1 downgrade target option. Let’s be frank, he is not someone you’d want included in your Best 18 this week, or someone you’re trying to use as reliable cover going forward. He is a tall lockdown defender, so his scoring power is quite low. He’s coming off a 35 and a 79 where to his credit, he took some nice intercepts. Although, what we really need from him is the next 3 games played to give us a warm body during the byes. After that? Honestly him becoming a loop with his DEF/FWD flexibility that can be paired with Zac Fisher would be ideal. This is one where we’d need to wait for teams on Thursday to assess further, because North have quite a few fringe tall defenders available and Kallan Dawson (not to get confused with Will) is due back this week. DOWNGRADE.
Zac Fisher – $493k (DEF/FWD) – 15%
Zac still seems to be a whipping boy of the SuperCoach community and its leaving people tentative still. Obviously in an ideal world you would’ve taken him 2 weeks ago for 100k less, but does he still offer you great value at this price? Absolutely. IF, it’s a scary if, but IF he stays in this role Fisher is so clearly a Top 4 forward and you’re getting him for sub 500k. I keep hearing people concerned about how Colby McKercher coming back will ruin him as a pick. Fisher and Colby actually played two games together prior to his injury where Fisher went 95 and 140 which completely debunks this theory. Yes, the kick ins will be shared, potentially even the majority handed to McKercher, but there is so much ball available down there in the North backline, that I’m confident he can do 95+ even without kick ins. This pick purely hinges on Sheezel remaining up the ground and honestly, I can’t see why Clarko would change this as for the first time all year he has all 3 men in form thriving in their current roles. He looks to have the perfect mix. If you don’t own Fisher, I’d clearly have him as your #1 target coming off the bye. GET IN.
Lachlan McNeil – $159k (FWD) – 1%
This pick received some traction from the SuperCoach community late in the pre-season which unfortunately never eventuated. It looks as though he may have his chance now as the Pups have gone from having the most fit list in the AFL two weeks ago, to some niggling injuries slowly mounting. The role isn’t ideal, but he has shown he’s capable of scoring in it and through the pre-season he actually scored quite large. The issue is the inflated price, we’re deep into upgrade season and the extra 42k from Dawson to McNeil can be quite detrimental. McNeil should be the better scorer and potentially even has the better job security, but you need to work out if you can make your desired trades over the next week or so while spending that extra cash. You also must consider whether you need him apart of your Best 18 over the next few weeks, or even as an F7 post bye. Because as I said with Dawson, I’m actually not upset with him becoming a loop for me, so is paying up for the job security/scoring actually going to benefit your team? WATCHLIST.
Lachie Neale – $614k (MID) – 5%
Being able to say Lachie Neale is 600k and in less than 5% of teams is something that over the past few years we couldn’t possibly imagine. It just goes to show how heavily Round 0 has affected SuperCoach premiums this year. Although, if you ever wanted to grab Lachie in 2024, this is the week to do it. He has quietly gone about his business this year where he is currently averaging 117 on the year, 117 in his last 5 and 118 in his last 3! Consistent! He has had two 160’s in his past 4 games, albeit one of those in the 100-point thumping of Richmond. The thing that concerns me with Lachie is he’s 31 now and he has battled multiple niggles throughout this year already. When you combine this with the fact that Brisbane’s season is borderline finished and if it gets to a point where they can’t play finals, resting your 31-year-old Brownlow medallist struggling with niggles or potentially even putting him on ice for next season seems possible… I can 100% see the merit in this pick, if Brisbane storm home late and string together some wins (Saints, Port, Dees, Crows and Eagles are 5 winnable games in a row after the Pups this week) then I can see Neale being the catalyst of these wins and easily returning you the 115-120+ on the rest of the year. But to me, this pick doesn’t tickle my fancy enough to warrant the uncertainty around Brisbane year. VIABLE.
Errol Gulden – $535k (MID) – 19%
I wanted to include one budget premium midfield option as I know how important it is to nail these picks at these prices if they come good as they’re perfect trade enablers and allows funds to be distributed better elsewhere. And with Gulden coming off the bye as the Swans storm into premiership favouritism, there is high upside in this pick. The main concern with Errol is the role this year, he has attended 35% of CBA’s whereas late last year this was up around 45%. So, there’s a significant reduction there. Assessing the stats, the main drop o*** from Gulden have been 2.5 less contested possessions and 1.7 less tackles per game which accurately represents the 7 Supercoach points per game drop off and slight role change this year compared to last. He was recently quoted saying he’d love to be a 100% game time player and his last two games have been 95% and 97% TOG. It sounds silly but being on the park more often obviously gives you upside and more points opportunity. His clanger numbers recently have also been much higher than you’d expect from a player like Gulden, so when you’re winning less contested ball and turning it over more, you can see a sharp drop off in an average. Heeney was dominant, Warner is dominant, they’re coming off the bye, freshened up and clear premiership favourites. Why couldn’t Gulden be the next one to go ballistic starting this week against an easy midfield matchup at home? There’s every chance he averages under what you’d ideally want from your M8 but at this price, imagine he goes on a run and averaged 121 after his bye like he did from Round 14 last year? Similar to Warner, there is the ability to explode in SuperCoach and he certainly has the “fun” owning factor as well. TEMPTING.
RD 13 SUPERCOACH TRADE TALK: WARMING TO WARNER
Posted on June 3, 2024 by SuperCoach Scout Leave a comment
We’re heading into a Round where we have a crack at BEST 18, even though most teams will easily be able to field 22 players this week. Therefore, it’s pivotal to make the most of this opportunity and ensure you’re covered for numbers over the two more difficult byes by targeting some of these MUST HAVE guys coming off their bye!
Chad Warner – $608k (MID) – 5%
This bloke has absolutely turned it on and he’s on a fast track to superstardom. He has a 5 Round average of over 130 which includes two mammoth scores of 172 and 144 in his last two. The interesting part to his game, is the fact he hasn’t been requiring large centre bounce numbers to reach these scores. On the season, Warner is averaging 60% CBA’s and over his last 5 games which we touched on, this number is still 58%. You can look at it two ways, either his floor and ceiling are not affected by low CBA numbers and therefore you consider it a safe return on his floor, or you can look at it as is he really going to continue kicking 2-4 goals a game to continue this trend? The price point isn’t exactly cheap anymore, but it is still reasonable. This certainly adds some risk as you really need a big 115+ return on investment for the rest of the year to make it viable. The run home in terms of his fixture is slightly above average and that kicks off with a very favourable matchup against an undermanned Cats midfield at home this week which puts him right amongst VC territory. Honestly, sometimes Supercoach picks are swayed by the “fun” factor and owning the Chad has this written all over him. There is quite a few midfield premiums coming off the bye this week, but no doubt this guy will be near the top of most people’s lists. TEMPTED.
Will Dawson – $117k (DEF/FWD) – 10%
As it stands, its likely this man is your #1 downgrade target option. Let’s be frank, he is not someone you’d want included in your Best 18 this week, or someone you’re trying to use as reliable cover going forward. He is a tall lockdown defender, so his scoring power is quite low. He’s coming off a 35 and a 79 where to his credit, he took some nice intercepts. Although, what we really need from him is the next 3 games played to give us a warm body during the byes. After that? Honestly him becoming a loop with his DEF/FWD flexibility that can be paired with Zac Fisher would be ideal. This is one where we’d need to wait for teams on Thursday to assess further, because North have quite a few fringe tall defenders available and Kallan Dawson (not to get confused with Will) is due back this week. DOWNGRADE.
Zac Fisher – $493k (DEF/FWD) – 15%
Zac still seems to be a whipping boy of the SuperCoach community and its leaving people tentative still. Obviously in an ideal world you would’ve taken him 2 weeks ago for 100k less, but does he still offer you great value at this price? Absolutely. IF, it’s a scary if, but IF he stays in this role Fisher is so clearly a Top 4 forward and you’re getting him for sub 500k. I keep hearing people concerned about how Colby McKercher coming back will ruin him as a pick. Fisher and Colby actually played two games together prior to his injury where Fisher went 95 and 140 which completely debunks this theory. Yes, the kick ins will be shared, potentially even the majority handed to McKercher, but there is so much ball available down there in the North backline, that I’m confident he can do 95+ even without kick ins. This pick purely hinges on Sheezel remaining up the ground and honestly, I can’t see why Clarko would change this as for the first time all year he has all 3 men in form thriving in their current roles. He looks to have the perfect mix. If you don’t own Fisher, I’d clearly have him as your #1 target coming off the bye. GET IN.
Lachlan McNeil – $159k (FWD) – 1%
This pick received some traction from the SuperCoach community late in the pre-season which unfortunately never eventuated. It looks as though he may have his chance now as the Pups have gone from having the most fit list in the AFL two weeks ago, to some niggling injuries slowly mounting. The role isn’t ideal, but he has shown he’s capable of scoring in it and through the pre-season he actually scored quite large. The issue is the inflated price, we’re deep into upgrade season and the extra 42k from Dawson to McNeil can be quite detrimental. McNeil should be the better scorer and potentially even has the better job security, but you need to work out if you can make your desired trades over the next week or so while spending that extra cash. You also must consider whether you need him apart of your Best 18 over the next few weeks, or even as an F7 post bye. Because as I said with Dawson, I’m actually not upset with him becoming a loop for me, so is paying up for the job security/scoring actually going to benefit your team? WATCHLIST.
Lachie Neale – $614k (MID) – 5%
Being able to say Lachie Neale is 600k and in less than 5% of teams is something that over the past few years we couldn’t possibly imagine. It just goes to show how heavily Round 0 has affected SuperCoach premiums this year. Although, if you ever wanted to grab Lachie in 2024, this is the week to do it. He has quietly gone about his business this year where he is currently averaging 117 on the year, 117 in his last 5 and 118 in his last 3! Consistent! He has had two 160’s in his past 4 games, albeit one of those in the 100-point thumping of Richmond. The thing that concerns me with Lachie is he’s 31 now and he has battled multiple niggles throughout this year already. When you combine this with the fact that Brisbane’s season is borderline finished and if it gets to a point where they can’t play finals, resting your 31-year-old Brownlow medallist struggling with niggles or potentially even putting him on ice for next season seems possible… I can 100% see the merit in this pick, if Brisbane storm home late and string together some wins (Saints, Port, Dees, Crows and Eagles are 5 winnable games in a row after the Pups this week) then I can see Neale being the catalyst of these wins and easily returning you the 115-120+ on the rest of the year. But to me, this pick doesn’t tickle my fancy enough to warrant the uncertainty around Brisbane year. VIABLE.
Errol Gulden – $535k (MID) – 19%
I wanted to include one budget premium midfield option as I know how important it is to nail these picks at these prices if they come good as they’re perfect trade enablers and allows funds to be distributed better elsewhere. And with Gulden coming off the bye as the Swans storm into premiership favouritism, there is high upside in this pick. The main concern with Errol is the role this year, he has attended 35% of CBA’s whereas late last year this was up around 45%. So, there’s a significant reduction there. Assessing the stats, the main drop o*** from Gulden have been 2.5 less contested possessions and 1.7 less tackles per game which accurately represents the 7 Supercoach points per game drop off and slight role change this year compared to last. He was recently quoted saying he’d love to be a 100% game time player and his last two games have been 95% and 97% TOG. It sounds silly but being on the park more often obviously gives you upside and more points opportunity. His clanger numbers recently have also been much higher than you’d expect from a player like Gulden, so when you’re winning less contested ball and turning it over more, you can see a sharp drop off in an average. Heeney was dominant, Warner is dominant, they’re coming off the bye, freshened up and clear premiership favourites. Why couldn’t Gulden be the next one to go ballistic starting this week against an easy midfield matchup at home? There’s every chance he averages under what you’d ideally want from your M8 but at this price, imagine he goes on a run and averaged 121 after his bye like he did from Round 14 last year? Similar to Warner, there is the ability to explode in SuperCoach and he certainly has the “fun” owning factor as well. TEMPTING.
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I've got enough issues that I'm still holding Laird. Watching my entire midfield and half my backline crater in three weeks ago and continue sucking since has been brutal.
Martin hasn't scored above 100 since I brought him in.
Stewart has scored below 100 4 out of the last 5.
Laird, Green and Oliver averaging under 100 over the last three.
Steele averaging 100 over the last three.
Serong averaging 105 over the last three.
I'll keep kicking rookies off the field ASAP and then piece together something from the carnage.
Martin hasn't scored above 100 since I brought him in.
Stewart has scored below 100 4 out of the last 5.
Laird, Green and Oliver averaging under 100 over the last three.
Steele averaging 100 over the last three.
Serong averaging 105 over the last three.
I'll keep kicking rookies off the field ASAP and then piece together something from the carnage.