Strategy 2024: Round 14 Trades

[Darkie]

Yeah I think it is a toss up, as a lot depends on averages and games played, as well as potential cover scores. In years gone past I was reasonably confident I could cover a short term miss with an 80, meaning the other player would need to significantly out average the one I brought in. Eg in your example, if I went Oliver (100 average) to Serong (115 average) over the last 11 rounds, that is +165 points, which is still +130 if an bench score of 80 covered Serong for a week. But this year with the poor rookie options we're likely to be left with and the sub rule, the cover score could easily be a 30 or 40, meaning any advantage is eaten away quickly.
That said, I think the fact Oliver still has a bye means you get a pretty handy boost by making that trade. If we use the Oliver 100 and Serong 115 examples above, you'll get 11x115 from Serong (1265 points) and 10x100 from Oliver (1000 points). +265 is a pretty handy headstart right there! I definitely wouldn't be advocating a sideways trade to someone with that higher upside, but guys like Serong and Butters who have had the bye and a +1 game count coupled with being a top 2-3 scorer are much more worth it.
But the caveat to that is, how many trades will you have with a complete team if you also make that sideways move?

Thanks - I think that’s right.

In my case I have one upgrade to do, which pretty much has to be Heeney, and that will take two more trades, leaving me with six and Oliver/Bolton as my worst premiums. I may be better off trying to get Shai to a 23rd premium rather than binning Oliver now.

For my team Serong’s points wouldn’t all be incremental (I am likely to have 18 green dots) and bringing him in this round would necessitate trading Moyle, who is an outside chance to play next round and continue making cash for me. The price difference between Oliver and Serong could be a reasonable contribution to getting Comben or Moyle up to another premium as well. Lots of factors to weigh up, but I’m erring on just doing Wilson to Grundy this round and reassessing. I think we’ve had a fairly good run (collectively - not everyone) with premiums avoiding LTIs this year, so I’m wary of assuming that will continue!

 

[froffershanners]

Don’t mind the Daicos flipping chat if he misses this week.

Hope if he is to miss they just don’t name him rather than a late out as many trades will be locked away before then.

 

[Chumpion]

Thanks - I think that’s right.

In my case I have one upgrade to do, which pretty much has to be Heeney, and that will take two more trades, leaving me with six and Oliver/Bolton as my worst premiums. I may be better off trying to get Shai to a 23rd premium rather than binning Oliver now.

For my team Serong’s points wouldn’t all be incremental (I am likely to have 18 green dots) and bringing him in this round would necessitate trading Moyle, who is an outside chance to play next round and continue making cash for me. The price difference between Oliver and Serong could be a reasonable contribution to getting Comben or Moyle up to another premium as well. Lots of factors to weigh up, but I’m erring on just doing Wilson to Grundy this round and reassessing. I think we’ve had a fairly good run (collectively - not everyone) with premiums avoiding LTIs this year, so I’m wary of assuming that will continue!

Wilson to Grundy looks an unreal trade on paper!

 

[Herbie66]

Like the Simpkin idea

Comben - > Dowling
Sullivan - > Simpkin

7 left

 

[Under The Dome]

Lots of potential downgrade options - especially Clohesey and Sweet at their price, as well as injured rookies McKercher and Richards unless you're keen on holding until they potentially return (Richards is 5+ weeks from memory). You seem to have more trades in hand than most, so perfect opportunity to bring in D6 / F6.

Could even sideways trade out an underperforming Clarry to someone like Gulden or Neale, for an extra premo on field for Rd 14 bye...

One option would be to swap Dawson with Cloehesy to DEF, downgrade to Dowling (+$190k) and either upgrade McKercher to a $559k D6 (Hayden Young?) or perhaps Martin to Luke Ryan?

Third trade to downgrade Sweet to Kreuger (+$185k) to save for Rd 15 upgrades?

Richards 2-3 and McKercher 1

 

[JMAC]

Garcia to Dowling or Kreueger, Oliver or Stewart to Neale.

Does that look reasonable, or sideways?

 

[jb2626]

Would love Rankine this week due to his BE but will he cop the Jordon tag? Bye week after has me hesitant too

 

[Maccas marvels]

Would love Rankine this week due to his BE but will he cop the Jordon tag? Bye week after has me hesitant too

Think it’s safe to bring him in post bye….tougher matchup against the swans….if he goes up shouldn’t be by too much

 

[FlatTrackBully]

Really not a fan of these trades but can't really get much better as I'm pretty strapped for cash.
Petracca -> Gulden
Clohsey -> Green
Moyle -> Gray

Was tossing up between Gulden and LDU last week so not like I'm chasing points although it feels that way a bit. Really he's the only option I can afford that's had their bye so far, same as Green, just hope Kelly and Coniglio returning help him in the back half. Not really keen on either of these guys but they'll have to do. If anyones got any other suggestions that I might've missed, very open to changing.

Would go with one of Dowling or Kreuger but wouldn't be able to get Gulden or Green in otherwise, not that I'm scrambling to get them in. Will see if Bont and Daicos play and adjust from there, also see what Reville scores and see if I'll have to get another playing player.

Targeting Curnow next week and Rankine the week after his bye, hopefully 3 injury trades in hand when team is done which is less than ideal but it'll have to do. Was aiming to get Baker as a 23rd to loop all lines (except ruck) but I don't think I can facilitate that anymore. Dowling will be my 23rd, hopefully Kreuger can last long enough to be ruck cover if I need, Strachan possibly as well.

 

[quite ironic]

Sweet -> Krueger
Comben -> Dowling
Moyle -> Grundy

Gives me 21 players if Daicos, Bont and Laird play.

175k bank
7 trades left

Ryan, Daicos, Houston, Young, N.Martin, Stewart (McKercher, Draper)

Bont, Serong, Gulden, Steele, Touk, Laird, Green, Oliver
(Freijah, Dowling, Carroll)

English, Grundy (Livingston)

Flanders, Heeney, Fisher, L.Jackson, Moore, Macrae (Krueger, Dawson)

 

[Diabolical]

Is NWM to Ryan worth it if it dries up my cash reserve and reduces me to 8 trades left with an upgrade still to make in the forward line?

 

[Masterofnone]

18 playing before trades. I will either do 0 or 3 trades this week 😬
Moyle > Krueger
H. Garcia > Dowling
R. Garcia > Zorko

11 trades left after this with a "complete" team counting Sexton at F6.

Not sure if I'm better off waiting a week or two to possibly get Zorko for $50k cheaper.

 

[Chumpion]

Is NWM to Ryan worth it if it dries up my cash reserve and reduces me to 8 trades left with an upgrade still to make in the forward line?

Ryan is so comfortably above the rest so I definitely think so. The 2 games he plays over NWM could be worth 250+ points, but you’ve also got the +20-30 points per week you could also be getting.
I’d confidently say the upside of Ryan outweighs a slightly more compromised F6, or a good F6 with 5-6 trades left.

 

[Shannon]

Is NWM to Ryan worth it if it dries up my cash reserve and reduces me to 8 trades left with an upgrade still to make in the forward line?

Ryan is averaging 130 per game, 11 points more than the next defender in Daicos & 14 more than Sheezel.

Since round 2, his price has been between 644k & 686k ever since. Personally, I would pull the trigger.

 

[Shannon]

18 playing before trades. I will either do 0 or 3 trades this week 😬
Moyle > Krueger
H. Garcia > Dowling
R. Garcia > Zorko

11 trades left after this with a "complete" team counting Sexton at F6.

Not sure if I'm better off waiting a week or two to possibly get Zorko for $50k cheaper.

Saints giving up huge points every week to half backs, can see Zorko posting a monster score tomorrow night, real VC option so with the amount of trades you have up your sleeve I would not hesitate. Sure you might get him cheaper but in his current role he is a certain top 4 fwd so need him at some point.

 

[Darkie]

Is NWM to Ryan worth it if it dries up my cash reserve and reduces me to 8 trades left with an upgrade still to make in the forward line?

I suspect it depends on how your cash situation looks post-Ryan, and whether you are covering a donut this round.

Equally if you think Ryan keeps outscoring NWM by nearly 30ppg it’s definitely worth it. I would bet against that though.

 

[Bomber18]

Interesting score breakdown from L Jackson. Averaging 101 with only 3 100+ scores from 12 games!

 

[blue dreamer]

Settled on some trades that (somewhat) please me.
Two down one up and a boost to sideways Petracca.

Petracca, Comben, Clohesy and Graham to Serong, Zorko, Dowling and McMullin.

Leaves me with the bare 18 playing this week as long as Naicos is named unless Harcia is named but needed Combens cash to make the two upgrades work.

Still have Dawson, Bowes, Zilliams, Stewart in def with Oliver in mids and would like to know what Zilliams needs to get DPP round 18 if anyone has that available or can point me to it.

Team selections have me down to 17, but the only way around that is to bring back Comden, can't do that without rejigging trades as I needed his cash, 17 it is (hopefully).

 

[thesainter]

The million dollar question who has the better JS .... dowling or Kreuger. Leaning towards Kreuger with big cox out for a month... peoples thoughts

 

[manyproblems]

The million dollar question who has the better JS .... dowling or Kreuger. Leaning towards Kreuger with big cox out for a month... peoples thoughts

dowling will play rest of season