I agree with most of what you said about the 400k leftover. My argument is that 74 points lost are in reality less than that. If the 400k is the difference between a rookie and a premium. That means I'll have to play an extra rookie rather than say a premium averaging 110. That rookie probably scores 50 and with the flex position it can potentially help this strategy given rookies scores are volatile and if my 'extra rookie's flops but time, then I can benefit more than your average team does with the flex position. In reality it's not a simple equation so it's very tough to quantify how many points are lost.
My strategy is to get a team with very few of the must have top priced premiums instead going for value picks which means that (putting the cash in bank aside for a minute) I am trying my best to maximise team value and seek value in every position. If I can get the right cheaper premiums then regardless of cash leftover, I should be in a decent position.
This strategy of cheaper premiums carries big risk given if they flop you are behind on points and trades but if you get it right there is potential. What the money in the bank does is offers some insurance for those potential premiums that flop but if most of them do, you are in struggle street regardless of money leftover.
I'm not saying it will work at all but if you can hit the sweet spot you can make a team below the full salary cap that averages more than lots of teams that use the full cap.
I'm banking on being behind early but with trades I'm hoping to start closing the gap. It's high risk but I think avoiding picking all the top guns is the way to get ahead, at the end of the day I'll go with a team I like and see if I can leave 300k+
Doubt it works but it's not a simple equation of losing 75points per week and having to overcome that. It can go wrong in many ways but it's not as simple as losing 'x' points early...I'm also not saying that that is your only point.
It can and probably will go wrong but it's not necessarily because of the 400k in the bank, it will be my combination of selections that let me down. If I get cold feet I will end up using some of that cash in the bank.
Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.