Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, funny how this season has turned out - well not that funny!!!

How ironic, having been in discussion with you for a few weeks about what moves to make around waiting for Tyson to peak and upgrade, I always had a thought in the back of my mind that something would go wrong. With this in mind I held off making a few trades and kept a couple in the bank for this week.

Will be able to cover Beams and Fyfe and then hope Kennedy is back next week if I get through. Will have to eat 1 donut and Tyson is now a keeper. Luckily I have enough cash to pick any 2 mids, so will now grab Rockliff and either Sloane or Priddis.

The supercoach gods have stepped in and given this season an almighty shake up. Going to be a lot of underdogs winning this year.

Thanks for your help this year.

Good luck if you are still in contention.

cheers Saint
Hi Saint,
congratulations on your patience, your willingness to hold Tyson, and most of all your good season!
I'm always happy to help, and if I can make a positive difference with most of my advice, then I'm happy.
I'm in a Prelim in my main League against my brother. We finished 1st (him) and 2nd, then I lost the first final. My Brother has at least one donut, and has D Martin, and I don't. He's also forced to play the likes of McDonald and Langdon. Barring accidents I should have him covered. I've gone Fyfe to Rocky this week to close down that POD he has on me.
Good luck and thanks for the kind Words. :)
 

Saintellica

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Hi Rowsus,

Tonights game has thrown up a dilemma. I have loopholed Wingard and can put Spina on ground and take his score and take McGovern off the ground. Only problem is if Dusty is a late out I will end up with a donut and in 2 close games it could be the difference. My hope is Richmond make an announcement tomorrow during the day like Geelong did but not holding my breath. I can play McGovern and take Martin off the ground and hope he doesn't play and go big. What would you do?

Also who would you go for Priddis v Sloane?

cheers
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Tonights game has thrown up a dilemma. I have loopholed Wingard and can put Spina on ground and take his score and take McGovern off the ground. Only problem is if Dusty is a late out I will end up with a donut and in 2 close games it could be the difference. My hope is Richmond make an announcement tomorrow during the day like Geelong did but not holding my breath. I can play McGovern and take Martin off the ground and hope he doesn't play and go big. What would you do?

Also who would you go for Priddis v Sloane?

cheers
Hi again, Saint.
I think it's better the devil you know, and you know McGovern will play. If he had a tough game, the decision would be more difficult, but they are playing Melbourne, so go with him. When we look at the table below, it becomes even more convincing.

The table has been sorted by WC's highest score, to lowest score, when McGovern plays.
When WC win, McGoverns lowest score is 80. They should towel Melbourne!
There also seems to be a correlation between, the more WC scores, the more McGovern scores.
I'd be confident he should get somewhere between 90 and 100, and possibly a bit better.
Martin has scored 86, or lower, in 3 of his last 4 games, and is reportedly a bit sore. The last time he played St Kilda in Rnd 15 he scored 104. He's only averaging around 93 at the MCG this season.
Banking what should be a 90 or better seems a much better decision than hoping Martin plays, and hoping he scores better.
As to Priddis V Sloane, the both have good draws, but I'm going to say Priddis for me.
Good luck. :)
 

Saintellica

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Thanks again Rowsus,

McGovern is the sensible and safest way to go.

I saw the disaster you had last night. I saw your post about who to loophole but the game had just started. If I had of seen it earlier I would of chosen Simpson - has been up and down lately. All no good after the fact though. I was lucky that a few of my opponents had Murphy, Simpson and Docherty.

I witnessed the worst trade of the year by one of my opponents - Fyfe to Barlow. I was very happy with that move. He must be on holiday overseas???

cheers
 

Rowsus

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Morning Creeker,
I'm not sure I would force a M/D link into your selections. You have plenty of playing Fwds, and the Shenton link if you need cover. I think I'd concentrate on just getting as many points for your dollars as you can.
There's generally 2 ways to approach this. Get the best player you think you can, and then see what the leftover money will buy, or just try and split it.
If you are going the split method, then the draw is probably even more important. It would seem that WC (Melb, GC) and Adelaide (Nth, StK) have the best finishing draws.
Shuey $523,700 leaves $578,800
Crouch $526,100 leaves $576,400
The options then become:
Watson (injury risk), Greene (in good form, definite chance), Ellis/Deledio/Cotchin (facing Syd last game), Boak/Gray (Freo last game), Crouch/Shuey.
Under this strategy I would be taking Shuey, with either Crouch or Greene, probably Greene, but both are ball magnets!
If you are going the "Gun and Loose Change" method:
Rockliff (Fre, Geel) - $691,900 leaves $410,600 - Boyd (struggling a bit after injury, but GWS Rnd 23), JJK (Melb, GC) can beat up on the weaker teams, and has the draw to do it! 118 & 136 his last 2 against Melb, 100+ his last 3 against GC!
Priddis (Melb, GC) - $632,000 leaves $470,500 - Swan, Bastinac/Gibson (Ade, Melb), Stokes, Douglas (Nth, StK), Hannebery (wildcard POD feeling a million dollars and facing WB, Rich), Dal Santo (poor form)
Lewis (Geel, Coll) - $615,900 leaves $486,600 - Miles, Neale (no Fyfe, last 4 games Fyfe missed, Neale was 83, 55, DNP, DNP, but he might be more important now), O'Meara, Christensen, Cunnington/Greenwood
Sidey (GW, Haw) - $601,900 leaves $500,600 - Bennell, Hodge, Gaff, Prestia, Mundy, Duncan, Hill S, Wines.
The Rockliff option Closes a POD against you, and JJK doesn't look hopeless.
The Priddis/Hannebery combo looks lethal. Hanne was averaging 124 for the 7 games leading to the injury game. He's had 2 games back, and said in an interview he's feeling a million dollars.
I'm not keen on Lewis, and he's got a tough draw.
Sidey gets to go without Beams. Was also missing in Rnd 13, when Beams didn't play. His average was roughly the same before and after Beams came back last season, so we have no lead, but I'm guessing it won't hurt him, especially if Pendles is back. I'd be looking at Bennell or Prestia to match with him.
Narrowing down the choices:
Rockliff/JJK
Priddis/Hannebery
Sidey/Prestia
Shuey/Greene
With so many people around you facing genuine carnage, Rockliff might be an important door to close. Look at it this way, you might have your opposition/teams just in front of you worried about donuts, but then Rocky rips out a 150 with C on him, and you've lost half your advantage over them, because your replacement scored 100. Taking Rocky really makes their donuts count, leave that door open, and they potentially limit the damage their donuts creates.
If Hannebery can even approach the form he had pre-injury, then combining him with Priddis and WC's easy draw makes sense.
These are my 2 preferred options of the 4 above.
Given there are so many people facing potential donuts, and they will pinning their Captain hopes on Rocky bringing home the bacon again, I think I'd go Rocky/JJK! Close their only "weapon" against you, and creates a POD in your Fwd line. It's high risk, but could be big reward. If you can't stomach JJK, go Priddis/Hannebery.
Good luck! :)
Rockliff 170/JJK 90*
Priddis 77/Hannebery ??
Sidey 112/Prestia 126
Shuey 107/Greene 140

Hey Creeker, I'm just wondering if you went with my leftfield suggestion of Rockky/JJK. JJK was Lucky to get 90, but Rocky made the difference! :)

* in hindsight, Darling or LeCras were better picks...... now.

edit - I see you got Rocky, and had him Captain, resulting in a 17 place jump to 53rd! Nice Work! :D
 
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Hi Rowsus

I took your advice on Rockliff instead of Priddis but you didn't tell me to forget Pendles VC score and go for Rockliff Captain!!! :)
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus

I took your advice on Rockliff instead of Priddis but you didn't tell me to forget Pendles VC score and go for Rockliff Captain!!! :)
Well..... I did it :) , and if you had asked me, I would have said, If you need a boost to win a match up, go for Rocky, otherwise bank Pendles. :)
 
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jackylidge

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Pretty basic question, but typically if you were to back the favourite every game for the year, with a consistent bet, e.g $1 every game for the season. Where would you sit at the end of the year? Similarly if you backed the outsider every week how would you end up. Obviously differs year to year but in years gone how would you end up?
 

Rowsus

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Pretty basic question, but typically if you were to back the favourite every game for the year, with a consistent bet, e.g $1 every game for the season. Where would you sit at the end of the year? Similarly if you backed the outsider every week how would you end up. Obviously differs year to year but in years gone how would you end up?
Even though sports betting is a very competitive business, it's like every other business, and prices and "mark-ups" vary from Company to Company.
Some sports bookies operate their AFL markets as low 2.5%, but usually it is more around 4%. They won't open them that way. They open them around 106-107% (some others to around 108-110%), and as the market settles, or the need to attract money to the team that hasn't had so much support as the other team grows, the market tends to loosen a little.
Unfortunately the answer to your question can only be math based. I did have at one stage (about 15 years ago) a data base of results against odds offered. Most seasons backing the favourite returned more money than backing the underdog. They each had one year out of about 10 where they made a profit, and all the other years they made a loss. Back then 110% was considered a sharp market, and if you shopped, you might find a 107-108% market. It is way more competitive these days. From memory the favourites out performed the underdogs about 7 to 3.
In general, you will lose the % in the market over a longer period of time. So if you are betting into a 104% market, you can expect your return to be:

22 rounds x 9 games + 9 finals = 187 games to bet in x $1/game - from this you would expect to get back $179.81

So if you shop well, it shouldn't matter if you back the favourite, or the underdog, over a decent number of years, you should expect to lose around 7 bet amounts/year. If that amount is $1, then lose about $7/year.
 

Rowsus

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I'm pretty sure Cotchin and Ellis played 12 games at the MCG this year.
That's correct, anfa18. :)

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-24/tigers-to-hog-mcg

Hi Rowsus,

In light of Richmond getting 14 MCG games just wondering if stats can back up a positive effect for likes of Cotchin & Ellis?

P.s not sure how games they played at MCG in 2014
Hi Nathan,
There is no doubt there are some players affected by venue. Off the top of my head, in 2013 Ibbotson was averaging around 20/game higher at home, than he did away. More players are affected by wins/losses than venues though. Looking at Richmonds 4 most popular SC players, and breaking up their 2014 averages by venue and results you get:

[table="width: 600, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]Season[/td]
[td]MCG W[/td]
[td]MCG L[/td]
[td]Eti W[/td]
[td]Eti L[/td]
[td]Other W[/td]
[td]Other L[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Cotchin[/td]
[td]22/102[/td]
[td]5/98[/td]
[td]7/89[/td]
[td]2/140[/td]
[td]2/103[/td]
[td]4/106[/td]
[td]2/106[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Ellis[/td]
[td]22/97[/td]
[td]5/108[/td]
[td]7/92[/td]
[td]2/103[/td]
[td]2/79[/td]
[td]4/99[/td]
[td]2/95[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Deledio[/td]
[td]18/103[/td]
[td]5/110[/td]
[td]5/80[/td]
[td]2/114[/td]
[td]2/68[/td]
[td]3/117[/td]
[td]2/128[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Martin[/td]
[td]21/100[/td]
[td]4/100[/td]
[td]7/104[/td]
[td]2/104[/td]
[td]2/96[/td]
[td]4/83[/td]
[td]2/118[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Looking at those figures, I don't think Richmond having 14 MCG games will alter my thinking on any of their players.
It is interesting to note how much better Deledio performs in wins, and shows why he quite often gets a tag over Cotchin!
 
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yakka

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I'm just wondering who you think benifets mostly at Brisbane with all that went down..
I'm liking Zorko in my forward line, Rich cos his cheap & Christianson if DPP and fit.
Also who gets the tag?
 
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I'm just wondering who you think benifets mostly at Brisbane with all that went down..
I'm liking Zorko in my forward line, Rich cos his cheap & Christianson if DPP and fit.
Also who gets the tag?
Zorko surely spends more time forward next season, I think tag starts on Beams but will depend a lot on where Hanley plays.
 

Schmicko

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Zorko surely spends more time forward next season, I think tag starts on Beams but will depend a lot on where Hanley plays.
Lol... who knows what Leppa will be planning?! Zorko's a hard nut and love the way he goes about his footy... Hanley and Christensen on the wings imo
 

Rowsus

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I'm just wondering who you think benifets mostly at Brisbane with all that went down..
I'm liking Zorko in my forward line, Rich cos his cheap & Christianson if DPP and fit.
Also who gets the tag?
Zorko surely spends more time forward next season, I think tag starts on Beams but will depend a lot on where Hanley plays.
I think there is a possibilty that Zorko may lose his DPP status, and be listed as Mid only. Not a huge chance, but a possibility. If that happens he becomes nearly SC irrelevant until 2016, where it is possible he will be rated M/F again, as he will surely spend a lot more time in the Forward line in 2015.
Rockliff obviously has the greatest potential to suffer, SC-wise.

The table above shows the 34 players that averaged 25+ possessions/game last season. It has been sorted in the order of what percentage of those possessions were contested. What worries me with the introduction of Beams, is that neither him or Rocky are huge CP players. It means they get a decent number of their possessions from receiving the ball, and now there are 3 players (Hanley is the 3rd) in their team with high possession rates, that recieve the ball, rather than win it. That may be harsh, but you get the idea. To be honest, I don't think anyone benefits, SC-wise, from the introduction of Beams, Christensen and Robinson. The pie can only get cut into so many slices, and I don't see anyone getting a bigger share than last year, when there are more possession hungry players to be fed from the same "cake". There would appear to be only losers, and the main one would appear to be Zorko, then possibly Hanley to some extent. I can't see Rich benefitting from any of this, and while he is going to be at a discounted price, I'm not sure he will score at any great level.
As to tags, it is never a case of a team has the same player tagged each and every week. Opposition Clubs look more at who they can effectively tag, and that really depends on who their tagger/s are. Some teams will find it easier to tag Beams, some will find it easier to tag Hanley. In general, because he receives the ball more than he wins it, and he can be quite affected by a tag, it is easier for opposition Clubs to decide to tag Hanley.
All in all, unless by some miracle Hanley keeps his D/M status, there aren't too many Brisbane Premiums/Keepers that aren't looking over-priced heading into 2015. I'd be careful starting any of their higher priced players.
 
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I think there is a possibilty that Zorko may lose his DPP status, and be listed as Mid only. Not a huge chance, but a possibility. If that happens he becomes nearly SC irrelevant until 2016, where it is possible he will be rated M/F again, as he will surely spend a lot more time in the Forward line in 2015.
Rockliff obviously has the greatest potential to suffer, SC-wise.

The table above shows the 34 players that averaged 25+ possessions/game last season. It has been sorted in the order of what percentage of those possessions were contested. What worries me with the introduction of Beams, is that neither him or Rocky are huge CP players. It means they get a decent number of their possessions from receiving the ball, and now there are 3 players (Hanley is the 3rd) in their team with high possession rates, that recieve the ball, rather than win it. That may be harsh, but you get the idea. To be honest, I don't think anyone benefits, SC-wise, from the introduction of Beams, Christensen and Robinson. The pie can only get cut into so many slices, and I don't see anyone getting a bigger share than last year, when there are more possession hungry players to be fed from the same "cake". There would appear to be only losers, and the main one would appear to be Zorko, then possibly Hanley to some extent. I can't see Rich benefitting from any of this, and while he is going to be at a discounted price, I'm not sure he will score at any great level.
As to tags, it is never a case of a team has the same player tagged each and every week. Opposition Clubs look more at who they can effectively tag, and that really depends on who their tagger/s are. Some teams will find it easier to tag Beams, some will find it easier to tag Hanley. In general, because he receives the ball more than he wins it, and he can be quite affected by a tag, it is easier for opposition Clubs to decide to tag Hanley.
All in all, unless by some miracle Hanley keeps his D/M status, there aren't too many Brisbane Premiums/Keepers that aren't looking over-priced heading into 2015. I'd be careful starting any of their higher priced players.

Quality write up as always and does make sense. With Rocky, Beams, Redden, Aish, Rich, Hanley, Christensen, Robbo and Zorko who can float through as well its going to be a **** fight to get 30 odd every week. Rocky and Beams are capable but there is no real upside like you say


*side note, we have formed a kick arse midfield!!!*
 
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ROWSUS

Can i please ask for you to do some research into Luke Dahlhaus please.
He increased his avg from 78.9 to 91.7 and with Griffin gone and Boyd getting older and older he has come up on my radar. Can i ask that you include the TOG stat and SC pts in wins and losses (as i think they will be losing more than winning)

Thanks again much appreciated as always
 

Rowsus

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ROWSUS

Can i please ask for you to do some research into Luke Dahlhaus please.
He increased his avg from 78.9 to 91.7 and with Griffin gone and Boyd getting older and older he has come up on my radar. Can i ask that you include the TOG stat and SC pts in wins and losses (as i think they will be losing more than winning)

Thanks again much appreciated as always


I'm happy to do this for siwel, but I don't want to get flooded with requests like this, as it largely overlaps something I'm working on anyway.
 
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Thank you mate quality write up and analysis as usual! Very much appreciated, your contribution to the site is enormous
 
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