Hi Rowsus
I need you to talk me out of a couple of 2nd year players who have been occupying my thoughts and I have not heard mentioned in dispatches at all to date.
1) Tom Langdon - Looking down the list of most expensive defenders it is hard to find many young ones with natural improvement in them. Given Langdon was so good early last year and now with that year under his belt, could he improve enough to be a keeper in 2015?
2) Jack Martin - Strong finish last year, plays every week, not a vest candidate, DPP and might just be cheap enough to consider at 300k.
TBH I doubt I will go for either on (2nd year) principle but I think there is a case that can be made for Martin in particular. I would be interested in your view.
Hi Beg2Differ,
they have the same problem, in that you nearly need them to reach keeper level to be considered a good selection.
I'm all for taking a risk in your Def selections, but I am worried about Langdon. He averaged 71 on the back of only 3 good scores. I also think a couple of his scores were hollow scores (ie. not supported by his stats). Look at his break up: 128, 118, 111 where his only scores above 90, and: 82, 88, 90 were his only scores between 80 and 90. So his other 13 games only averaged 56! Now before anyone jumps down my throat, I know anyones numbers look a lot worse with their best 6 games taken out, but 56 is truly terrible. Don't think it is a badly vested number, either. His 3 worst TOG%'s were: 32%, 68% and 75%! Looking at his SC/100%TOG in those 13 games, it was only only 74, and that well short of what you want from a Def (usually 100-105). If he had a bit more consistency across his numbers, you'd feel more confident about him, but when he has: SC score (TOG%) 12(32%), 37(81%), 47(68%), 56(79%), 56(75%), that's a lot of black marks to overcome. Even with the reshuffle that's happening at Collingwood, it's hard to see him making the step to 90/game. If he gets less, it means a trade, and you've made less than $100k. Say he makes you $60k, and Rookie that cost you $124k should make that easily, and the $250k you saved should make you 40-50pts/game, so you'll be in front on both dollars, points and possibly a trade by avoiding Langdon,
IF Langdon fails to reach Keeper status.
The thing I find funny about Martin is, this time last year there were many expecting him to outperform O'Meara, and be a 90+ Rookie. We all know his season was destroyed by injury, but he is still basically the same player, just one year older, stronger, and in his case heavier. Let's give him a chance to get match fit again, and exclude his first 5 games back. His last 5 games were: 94(84%), 82(83%), 17(46%), 83(81%), 119(81%). That averages out to 79(75%) or a SC/100%TOG of 105. Lower than you want and need, but not hopeless You probably want a SC/100%TOG of at least 110-115 from your Fwd's. The problem is the same as Langdon though. Unless you think he will be a Keeper, you are tying valuable cash that could be making points, and you are not generating enough cash.
Of the two, I'd probably back Martin to be the better selection, but I don't think either will work out as a good move.
