Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, would you have numbers at hand on how the magic number has changed throughout the year over the last few seasons, please?

I understand that it starts at its peak, declines fairly quickly over the first eight rounds or so, then declines more slowly thereafter, but would be interested in the numbers if you they are readily accessible for you (even if it was, say just round 1, 9 and the final round). Thanks again.

Darkie, I had the MN week by week stored on one of my XL files somehwere, but can't find it right now.
I can tell you the general pattern is that it drops around 6% going into Rnd 3, for the first price changes, and from there the variations can fluctuate. It is totally dependant on how many Rookies play, so the data in GC's and GWS' first few season skew the data a little, as there were more Rookies playing more consistently.
Last year it made some really unpredictable fluctuations, which had me questioning whether they have altered the system some what. Here is how the first rounds looked last season:
5394, 5394, 5014, 5003, 4941, 4980, 5064(!), 4994, 5065(!), 5044, 5001
Those red numbers look wrong to me, and I concede I may have made some error in calculation. It is not unknown for the MN to have a few up weeks, but I've never known to go up so much, then follow an up, down, up pattern that is so pronounced. In other seasons, when it has risen, it is a minimal amount, around 10-15 points. For the most part, when trying to buil a model for it, I found if you drop it around 5-7% in Rnd 3, then around 1% in round 4, then slowly reduce the reductions down to about 0.2%. This doesn't factor in the 4 or 5 weeks when it rises slightly, but gives a workable approximate. That assumes they haven't overhauled the method they use, which after last seasons numbers, is quite possible.
Sorry I couldn't be more exact for you.

 

[Juzzo]

Westhoff is an interesting player. In the past he played back, or forward, many times in the one game. When he went back, he was taking many intercept marks, which is great for SC scores. Watching him play, it was like he "snuck" back there many times, and the opposition didn't man him up too often. Ryder really changes this dynamic. I can't see Ryder, Schulz and Westhoff sharing the Fwd line too often, and Westhoff is the one with the versatility, so he may play even more up the ground than previous seasons. The problem is, he won't be sneaking up there too much anymore, so will likely be manned up more. For this reason, I won't be starting him. Just an interesting aside, some people like Westhoff because they think he picks up a few "bonus points" by getting a few Hitouts each game. He actually had less Hitouts than Ollie Wines last season!
Dunn's biggest problem is that he asked to fill so many different roles in a season. He can be a rebounding Def, or a extra KPP Def, or even a run with player. He's sort of Melbourne's Mr Fixit. Only one of those roles is SC friendly, and I'm not sure he gets to play that role often enough, to ever push into the 90+ area for a season.

Thanks for you in depth answer Rowsus.

 

[Darkie]

Thank you Rowsus - not surprisingly, that is comfortably exact enough for my purposes That's useful info on the GC/GWS impact as well, I will bear that in mind. Appreciate your help.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I would appreciate your thoughts on Jamie Macmillan DEF for $270k from the Kangas.

He was out injured for the majority of last year but Chris Scott brought him back for the finals (which says to me he rates him).

2012 and 2013 played every game and averaged 63 and 73.

Considering the lack of rookie options in defence this year I'm hoping he will be a great cheaper option as I believe he is in the Kangas best 22.

Thoughts please?

Hi _Slip_,
a Coach rating a defender is no promise of SC points, but probably hints at good JS.
I can't have him. You'd want him to average at least 88 if he played 22 games, and more if he misses games. The reason I can't have him is, in 2013 he had no 100+ scores, and only 6 scores better than the 88 you might be hoping for. It makes it tough to reach that goal, with such a low ceiling. In his career he has only 10 games out of 64 that are 88+, it's a really big leap of faith to hope he can do that. He's not for me.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, things don't exactly end up being safe when you're in handcu***!

I'll get her to use the leopard skin print ones, they're softer on my wrists!

 

[Maso]

Hey Rowsus, Now after 157 patches of Q & A im not sure if its been asked but what are your thoughts on Miles from tigers - over priced or spot on? after reading through the prospectus they seem to love him and are surprised he wasnt playing earlier at GWS. do you think 2014 could just be the tip of the iceberg for him

 

[johno686]

Hey Rowsus, Now after 157 patches of Q & A im not sure if its been asked but what are your thoughts on Miles from tigers - over priced or spot on? after reading through the prospectus they seem to love him and are surprised he wasnt playing earlier at GWS. do you think 2014 could just be the tip of the iceberg for him

Love Miles and can only see him get better. I wouldn't pick him this year as he only done it for the second half of one year. Wait to he plays a full year and see how he goes. Hes going to get better with another preseason plus being on the main list knowing your apart of the best 18. Keep a close eye on him but better options out there for 2015

 

[Maso]

Love Miles and can only see him get better. I wouldn't pick him this year as he only done it for the second half of one year. Wait to he plays a full year and see how he goes. Hes going to get better with another preseason plus being on the main list knowing your apart of the best 18. Keep a close eye on him but better options out there for 2015

Thanks johno , yea being on the main list do you think he might get a bit complacent ?

 

[THCLT]

Rowsus,

I've decided to follow the lead of many on this site to come to the 'fountain of SC wisdom' and seek consolation for my dilemma. Your depth of knowledge and analysis of SC stats is second to none and I really rate and value your opinion and commentary on things pertaining to SC.

I acknowledge that you have to prepare several iterations of your team structure dependent on which Rookies are likely to get a jersey for RD1, my philosophy on Rookies selection is to start with those named for RD1.

As to my likely starting team, I'm pretty much set on my MID (4 Premiums plus A Swallow) and RUCK (Goldstein and Naitanui) lines. However, I'm still deliberating on how best to structure my DEF and FWD lines, with the intention of getting the most value out of these lines. Below are the two options I'm currently weighing up.

Option 1
DEF: 2-3-3
FWD: 4-1-3

Option 2
DEF: 4-1-3
FWD: 2-3-3

Midpricer I'm considering includes (I can accommodate almost any combinations of the below without compromising my MID and RUCK lines):

DEF: H Taylor, J Newnes, SD Thompson, S Docherty, C Hampton, E Yeo and J Johannisen.
FWD: J Elliott, T Mitchell, T Adams, C Salem and M Clark

Question is do I trust the Midpricer in DEF more than those in the FWD line? If RD1 were to start tomorrow, I'd probably go with Option 1, purely on the basis that I can see from the list above better 'so-called' Fallen Premium and players with potential in DEF than FWD.

As always, your insight and comment are greatly appreciated.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, Now after 157 patches of Q & A im not sure if its been asked but what are your thoughts on Miles from tigers - over priced or spot on? after reading through the prospectus they seem to love him and are surprised he wasnt playing earlier at GWS. do you think 2014 could just be the tip of the iceberg for him

Love Miles and can only see him get better. I wouldn't pick him this year as he only done it for the second half of one year. Wait to he plays a full year and see how he goes. Hes going to get better with another preseason plus being on the main list knowing your apart of the best 18. Keep a close eye on him but better options out there for 2015

Thanks johno , yea being on the main list do you think he might get a bit complacent ?

He's an interesting one Miles. I did a bit of statistical digging, and I think you'll like a bit of what I've found.
The argument for:
There's a pretty general rule of thumb, that players with high numbers of Contested Possessions usually have low Disp Eff numbers.
In 2014 there were 50 players that averaged 10+ CP's/game. Miles was 28th on this list with 11.2/game. If you order those 50 players by what percentage of their total possessions were contested, he is 20th. Looking at the Dis Eff of those 50 players, Miles comes 3rd! Selwood 76.2%, Watson 76.1%, Miles 75.1% are the only ones over 75% (Pendlebury is next on 75%!). Only 18 of the 50 made it into the 70+% area.
A similar thing can be said about players with high numbers of Clearances. Only 35 players averaged 5+Clearances/game last season. Miles was 4th on this list with 6.8/game. Whilst the two lists contain a lot of the same names, Miles was 4th in Dis Eff on this list behind Selwood, Watson and Carrazzo(?!).
The argument against:
Miles' TOG% has no improvement in it, already being in the low 80's, so no improvement there. He has a SC to DT of 1.12:1 which will be hard to maintain. He has a low goal count, and low Goal assists, coupled with a fairly low Inside50 Count, which means he's not getting a lot of score, and score involvement "bonus points". His free kick ratio of 3.2:1.2 (For:Against) might be hard to maintain as well. The players with the high Clearance numbers potentially lose around 5pts/game under the new Rucking Rules. You probably need him average around 110 to be considered a great pick, but with his lack of experience, he is going to have to beat history. Only Rockliff and Barlow have gone 110+ in a season with less than 25 games already under their belt.
All in all, he will probably outscore his price, but I'm not confident he'll successfully fill a M8 position, without conceding points to other Coaches. There would appear to be better/safer options around, or just above, the same price. Next season, as johno said, maybe.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

I've decided to follow the lead of many on this site to come to the 'fountain of SC wisdom' and seek consolation for my dilemma. Your depth of knowledge and analysis of SC stats is second to none and I really rate and value your opinion and commentary on things pertaining to SC.

I acknowledge that you have to prepare several iterations of your team structure dependent on which Rookies are likely to get a jersey for RD1, my philosophy on Rookies selection is to start with those named for RD1.

As to my likely starting team, I'm pretty much set on my MID (4 Premiums plus A Swallow) and RUCK (Goldstein and Naitanui) lines. However, I'm still deliberating on how best to structure my DEF and FWD lines, with the intention of getting the most value out of these lines. Below are the two options I'm currently weighing up.

Option 1
DEF: 2-3-3
FWD: 4-1-3

Option 2
DEF: 4-1-3
FWD: 2-3-3

Midpricer I'm considering includes (I can accommodate almost any combinations of the below without compromising my MID and RUCK lines):

DEF: H Taylor, J Newnes, SD Thompson, S Docherty, C Hampton, E Yeo and J Johannisen.
FWD: J Elliott, T Mitchell, T Adams, C Salem and M Clark

Question is do I trust the Midpricer in DEF more than those in the FWD line? If RD1 were to start tomorrow, I'd probably go with Option 1, purely on the basis that I can see from the list above better 'so-called' Fallen Premium and players with potential in DEF than FWD.

As always, your insight and comment are greatly appreciated.

THCLT,
thanks for the kind words.
I'm interested to know why

Option 3
Def: 3-2-3
Fwd: 3-2-3

doesn't appear amongst your options.
Putting that aside, the general rule of thumb would suggest Option 1 is your better choice, if we are forced to pick between the 2 options you listed. If you are taking a risk on multiple Mid Priced players in a line, there is more safety in doing it in the Def line. We set lower expectations on our Defs, and a failed Def Mid Priced risk is more likely to score closer to the required D6 level, than a failed Fwd Mid Priced pick is to score close to the required F6 level. That holds even bigger weight this season, with perceived strength of the Fwds list, and the problems that appear to be there in the Def lists.
There are some good, likely candidates on your lists, I hope you jump the right way, which ever way you go.

 

[Rowsus]

I guess this is a question for anyone..
Does anyone know where Biggs will play becuase it will severely impact johannison if he sweeps off half back,
If no one knows I will have to painfully wait until the nab cup

To be honest, I don't even think the Bulldogs Coaches and selectors have it locked in yet. Even they will need to gauge how the different combinations of line ups work in the NAB, and even early in the real stuff. I have a seat spare next to me on the pine, and come wait painfully with me, and around 100,000 other SC Coaches. We'd all love to know the answer to that one.

 

[freowho]

He's an interesting one Miles. I did a bit of statistical digging, and I think you'll like a bit of what I've found.
The argument for:
There's a pretty general rule of thumb, that players with high numbers of Contested Possessions usually have low Disp Eff numbers.
In 2014 there were 50 players that averaged 10+ CP's/game. Miles was 28th on this list with 11.2/game. If you order those 50 players by what percentage of their total possessions were contested, he is 20th. Looking at the Dis Eff of those 50 players, Miles comes 3rd! Selwood 76.2%, Watson 76.1%, Miles 75.1% are the only ones over 75% (Pendlebury is next on 75%!). Only 18 of the 50 made it into the 70+% area.
A similar thing can be said about players with high numbers of Clearances. Only 35 players averaged 5+Clearances/game last season. Miles was 4th on this list with 6.8/game. Whilst the two lists contain a lot of the same names, Miles was 4th in Dis Eff on this list behind Selwood, Watson and Carrazzo(?!).
The argument against:
Miles' TOG% has no improvement in it, already being in the low 80's, so no improvement there. He has a SC to DT of 1.12:1 which will be hard to maintain. He has a low goal count, and low Goal assists, coupled with a fairly low Inside50 Count, which means he's not getting a lot of score, and score involvement "bonus points". His free kick ratio of 3.2:1.2 (For:Against) might be hard to maintain as well. The players with the high Clearance numbers potentially lose around 5pts/game under the new Rucking Rules. You probably need him average around 110 to be considered a great pick, but with his lack of experience, he is going to have to beat history. Only Rockliff and Barlow have gone 110+ in a season with less than 25 games already under their belt.
All in all, he will probably outscore his price, but I'm not confident he'll successfully fill a M8 position, without conceding points to other Coaches. There would appear to be better/safer options around, or just above, the same price. Next season, as johno said, maybe.

AFL Prospectus
"The points allocated to the player that wins a gather from a hitout has also dropped slightly, as more credit will be given to the effective hitout"
"Gather From Hitout
A possession gained from a team mates hitout to advantage. Counted as a contested possession."

TOP TEN RUCK-ROVER COMBINATIONS IN 2014

Aaron Sandilands and Nathan Fyfe — 62 (total)
Sam Jacobs and Patrick Dangerfield — 52
Sam Jacobs and Scott Thompson — 50
Aaron Sandilands and David Mundy — 50
Todd Goldstein and Andrew Swallow — 49
Will Minson and Tom Liberatore — 42
Todd Goldstein and Ben Cunnington — 41
Mark Jamar and Nathan Jones — 40
Matthew Lobbe and Robbie Gray — 38
Matthew Lobbe and Travis Boak — 37

It is specifically from a team mates hit out although they don't mention how much it is being reduced by. It is currently being shown as 2 points. Does anyone know what it was last year? My guess would be it has come down 1 point so Fyfe loses about 3 points off his average. He probably got a few from Zac Clarke, but I wouldn't think it was too many.

I wasn't going to buy the Prospectus this year. Saw it in a newsagent and couldn't help myself but I do refer to it from time to time.

 

[Maso]

He's an interesting one Miles. I did a bit of statistical digging, and I think you'll like a bit of what I've found.
The argument for:
There's a pretty general rule of thumb, that players with high numbers of Contested Possessions usually have low Disp Eff numbers.
In 2014 there were 50 players that averaged 10+ CP's/game. Miles was 28th on this list with 11.2/game. If you order those 50 players by what percentage of their total possessions were contested, he is 20th. Looking at the Dis Eff of those 50 players, Miles comes 3rd! Selwood 76.2%, Watson 76.1%, Miles 75.1% are the only ones over 75% (Pendlebury is next on 75%!). Only 18 of the 50 made it into the 70+% area.
A similar thing can be said about players with high numbers of Clearances. Only 35 players averaged 5+Clearances/game last season. Miles was 4th on this list with 6.8/game. Whilst the two lists contain a lot of the same names, Miles was 4th in Dis Eff on this list behind Selwood, Watson and Carrazzo(?!).
The argument against:
Miles' TOG% has no improvement in it, already being in the low 80's, so no improvement there. He has a SC to DT of 1.12:1 which will be hard to maintain. He has a low goal count, and low Goal assists, coupled with a fairly low Inside50 Count, which means he's not getting a lot of score, and score involvement "bonus points". His free kick ratio of 3.2:1.2 (For:Against) might be hard to maintain as well. The players with the high Clearance numbers potentially lose around 5pts/game under the new Rucking Rules. You probably need him average around 110 to be considered a great pick, but with his lack of experience, he is going to have to beat history. Only Rockliff and Barlow have gone 110+ in a season with less than 25 games already under their belt.
All in all, he will probably outscore his price, but I'm not confident he'll successfully fill a M8 position, without conceding points to other Coaches. There would appear to be better/safer options around, or just above, the same price. Next season, as johno said, maybe.

You sir are a legend

 

[THCLT]

THCLT,
thanks for the kind words.
I'm interested to know why

Option 3
Def: 3-2-3
Fwd: 3-2-3

doesn't appear amongst your options.
Putting that aside, the general rule of thumb would suggest Option 1 is your better choice, if we are forced to pick between the 2 options you listed. If you are taking a risk on multiple Mid Priced players in a line, there is more safety in doing it in the Def line. We set lower expectations on our Defs, and a failed Def Mid Priced risk is more likely to score closer to the required D6 level, than a failed Fwd Mid Priced pick is to score close to the required F6 level. That holds even bigger weight this season, with perceived strength of the Fwds list, and the problems that appear to be there in the Def lists.
There are some good, likely candidates on your lists, I hope you jump the right way, which ever way you go.

Many thanks for your reply and astute observations. You've definitely solidified my thought process and as always I find your comments very constructive indeed.

I did play around with 'Option 3' but somehow didn't really warm towards it. Ultimately, I decided not to hedge my bets on Mid priced players, rather, I preferred to target and focus these Mid priced selections to a particular line to in order to strengthen the other with Premiums. Like you mentioned, the perceived strength of the FWD Premiums versus the lack of outstanding DEF Premiums and Rookies, leads me to favour stacking the DEF line with Mid priced players. Also, I am of the opinion that there are more valued Fallen Premium options and Mid priced players with upsides in DEF when compared with the list in the FWD line, where most are questionable at best.

I will mull over this some more over the NAB matches with the hope that those candidates on my short list will put forward a compelling case as to why I should start them in my team.

 

[_Slip_]

Hi _Slip_,
a Coach rating a defender is no promise of SC points, but probably hints at good JS.
I can't have him. You'd want him to average at least 88 if he played 22 games, and more if he misses games. The reason I can't have him is, in 2013 he had no 100+ scores, and only 6 scores better than the 88 you might be hoping for. It makes it tough to reach that goal, with such a low ceiling. In his career he has only 10 games out of 64 that are 88+, it's a really big leap of faith to hope he can do that. He's not for me.

Hi Rowsus

Thanks for your feedback. I believe MacMillan is a solid def/wing prospect. At worst he will provide good depth to my supercoach squad as a D6 / D7 at the start of the year. He is way underpriced and if he can kick out 85pp I will be more than happy as I believe he will play every game. Prior years I would not have considered him but at this point in time, for his price he is strongly on my radar. Top 10 defender? Highly unlikely but he is a solid defender who will be in the best 22 is likely to improve as he has just been added to the leadership group and is only 23 years old. Having said that Grimes from Melbourne was a co captain and he has gone backwards lol.

Thanks again Rowsus for your input.

 

[siwel]

ROWSUS, what are your thoughts on TOby Greene? 553k finished the year on a tear and GWS have added Griffen.

(sorry if this has been asked)

 

[siwel]

Another thought I have had, Leuy v Lycett at R2. I have NicNat at R1 and for an extra 60k you can get Lycett over Leuy. Lycett doesnt have the inj history or the uncertainty about his role that Leuy has. Lycett also has DPP flexibility

Just a thought and would be interested to har your feedback along with other peoples

 

[Hondo]

Rowsus I'm curious about what history says about $300k defenders breaking out? With all the focus on them this season it struck me as a useful guider for us.

 

[Prochard]

Why do hit outs for midfielders work? In my memory I believe Hitouts to advantage is easier for midfielders to achieve due to the element of surprise