Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Probably time on ground percentage every bit as important as any actual fantasy scores at this point in time....

Someone produced some interesting stats last pre-season on another site, I tried to find it but couldn't. It basically said, when looking at Rookies from the pre-season comp, ignore their SC points, and ONLY look at their TOG. It gave an example table that showed nearly all the top earning Rookies from 2013 had the most TOG in the NAB Cup, regardless of their scores.
I'm prepared to say my memory is a little dodgy on this, and it may have been in the 2013 pre-season, talking about the 2012 Rookies.

 

[Rowsus]

Jeeeeez 5 points. Add that into the reduced clutch multiplier that's about -7ppg.
What's yours statistical reasoning behind 5ppg or is it gut instinct. Are there statistics available to the public on number of hitout gathers?

It's more gut feel, on reading the new Ruck scoring. Unfortunately, I have no stats to back it up, and I don't know where we can get them, other than what we have already seen here in the last month or so.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Someone produced some interesting stats last pre-season on another site, I tried to find it but couldn't. It basically said, when looking at Rookies from the pre-season comp, ignore their SC points, and ONLY look at their TOG. It gave an example table that showed nearly all the top earning Rookies from 2013 had the most TOG in the NAB Cup, regardless of their scores.
I'm prepared to say my memory is a little dodgy on this, and it may have been in the 2013 pre-season, talking about the 2012 Rookies.

That's funny Rowsus, I remember that piece but thought it was on this site.

The key points were to watch TOG on the last couple of rounds of NAB Cup (when coaches are becoming more serious about team structure), TOG above 50% critical with the more quality rookies up around +70% TOG. A high scoring SC point but 33% TOG usually indicated sub risk or no time at all.

Then there is what I brand the GFB rule - if a rookie doesn't play NAB cup and is named in the round 1 side even as a sub, pick him - Lewis Taylor 2014. Particularly if playing reigning premiers (Bris played Haw), this indicates this cash cow opportunity has been fed plenty of grain to fatten him up quickly.

 

[DaveyWarhol]

I just sorted the data from last years NAB challenge. I only looked at players who played 2 pre-season games. Top 5 players under 200k, in order:

DEF TOG%
Tom Clurey 89%
Joel Tippett 85
Angus Litherland 82.5
Alexis Georgiou 82
Jeremy Laidler 80.5

MID
Derick Wanganeen 80
Harry Cunningham 77.5
Luke McDonald 77
Dylan Buckley 76.5
Tom Langdon 76.5

FWD
Lincoln McCarthy 80
Gary Rohan 77
Michael Close 74
Dean Towers 72
Tim O'Brien 68.5

 

[Jurn Stern]

That's funny Rowsus, I remember that piece but thought it was on this site.

http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl...upercoach-scores/story-fni5f3gz-1226833924460
That was a link posted from OzRulesFootball last preseason about TOG with rookies in the NAB. Is this what you were looking for?

 

[PC]

I think he is too risky. I'm pretty sure he won't get vested too often, but I'm not confident he'll make 85, and I'm also not confident those that say 85 will be good enough for D5/6 this year are right. If he makes 85, but it turns out 85 is not good enough for D6, then he is not a good pick.

Cheers mate, yeah you are correct of course - perhaps next year

 

[freowho]

That's funny Rowsus, I remember that piece but thought it was on this site.

The key points were to watch TOG on the last couple of rounds of NAB Cup (when coaches are becoming more serious about team structure), TOG above 50% critical with the more quality rookies up around +70% TOG. A high scoring SC point but 33% TOG usually indicated sub risk or no time at all.

Then there is what I brand the GFB rule - if a rookie doesn't play NAB cup and is named in the round 1 side even as a sub, pick him - Lewis Taylor 2014. Particularly if playing reigning premiers (Bris played Haw), this indicates this cash cow opportunity has been fed plenty of grain to fatten him up quickly.

I think Dylan Shiel fell into this category in his first year at GWS. Makes sense, if the coach picks them without NAB cup games they are clearly favourites of the coach.

 

[Rowsus]

I just sorted the data from last years NAB challenge. I only looked at players who played 2 pre-season games. Top 5 players under 200k, in order:

DEF TOG%
Tom Clurey 89%
Joel Tippett 85
Angus Litherland 82.5
Alexis Georgiou 82
Jeremy Laidler 80.5

MID
Derick Wanganeen 80
Harry Cunningham 77.5
Luke McDonald 77
Dylan Buckley 76.5
Tom Langdon 76.5

FWD
Lincoln McCarthy 80
Gary Rohan 77
Michael Close 74
Dean Towers 72
Tim O'Brien 68.5

http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl...upercoach-scores/story-fni5f3gz-1226833924460
That was a link posted from OzRulesFootball last preseason about TOG with rookies in the NAB. Is this what you were looking for?

I think that might have been a similar analysis, but I'm starting to think the original one I'm thinking of must have been from the year before, as it was quite spooky how good it was at identifying the better Rookies. It looks like it has been ok, but not brilliant the last 2 seasons, but something still worth considering.
Thanks for the effort and posting the info guys.

 

[chels]

how do you workout thier TOG100% stat say if they scored 46 in 36% TOG what would that be @ 100%

Very basic maths Jordan, score divided by TOG (where 100% TOG is expressed as 1). Hence, 46 / .36 = 127.78.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

how do you workout thier TOG100% stat say if they scored 46 in 36% TOG what would that be @ 100%

You divide 46 by 0.36
This equals 127.8

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus, Just wondering how you are going to attack the Ruck strategy? Nic Nat might be ok but I reckon he may struggle for consistency with Lycett and Sinclair also getting a fair go in the middle. Also Leuy with Martin and Archie ?. Are you tempted to go all out and pick two outright gun premos in say a Jacobs or Goldy? Knowing that you could probably afford a straight swap for another if one goes down. Or are you likely to risk a couple of injury prone under priced players in Nic Nat, Leuy etc.?
I can't decide and i think it plays a big part in how I set up the rest of my team.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, Just wondering how you are going to attack the Ruck strategy? Nic Nat might be ok but I reckon he may struggle for consistency with Lycett and Sinclair also getting a fair go in the middle. Also Leuy with Martin and Archie ?. Are you tempted to go all out and pick two outright gun premos in say a Jacobs or Goldy? Knowing that you could probably afford a straight swap for another if one goes down. Or are you likely to risk a couple of injury prone under priced players in Nic Nat, Leuy etc.?
I can't decide and i think it plays a big part in how I set up the rest of my team.

Hey Slammer,
NicNat is starting to scare me off, but I'm not letting Archie scare me off Leuey for the moment. So it is Leuey R2, and I'm scratching my head on R1 right now. Choosing between Goldy, NicNat and Sandilands at the moment.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

Would a performance like Sloanes yesterday (13 possessions, 1 contested, 0 clearances, 91% TOG for 75SC points) throw you off if you were considering him? I didnt see any of the game but read he was tagged.

Or do you think NAB games are more to check out the rookies and judge the premiums on their history?

Ditto with Rocky not having a big game. There may be more to that though with the inclusion of Beams.

Your thoughts would be great!

Thanks

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hey Row,

Would a performance like Sloanes yesterday (13 possessions, 1 contested, 0 clearances, 91% TOG for 75SC points) throw you off if you were considering him? I didnt see any of the game but read he was tagged.

Or do you think NAB games are more to check out the rookies and judge the premiums on their history?

Ditto with Rocky not having a big game. There may be more to that though with the inclusion of Beams.

Your thoughts would be great!

Thanks

Just a quick point, there was no Dangerfield playing yesterday remember.

 

[Blossoms]

Hi Rowsus

My first post after a lot of study here.

I heard Rodney Eade say in an interview that he wants to rotate 8-9 players through the midfield instead of flogging the same 4-5 blokes as last year.

Can this information help us with selection?

Cheers

 

[Blue Dragons]

Just a quick point, there was no Dangerfield playing yesterday remember.

Thats true. And with the way Crouch played he may be number two in line for the tag. I dont usually pay too much attention to established players in the NAB games but it still worries me a bit with that game from Sloane because from what i read it wasnt a Crowley-type tag but they just had Turner running with him.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Thats true. And with the way Crouch played he may be number two in line for the tag. I dont usually pay too much attention to established players in the NAB games but it still worries me a bit with that game from Sloane because from what i read it wasnt a Crowley-type tag but they just had Turner running with him.

You are right. It was game 1 of the NAB Challenge for the Crows. Sloane is a hard working player, but I'm not sure he was too invested in the game yesterday.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Would a performance like Sloanes yesterday (13 possessions, 1 contested, 0 clearances, 91% TOG for 75SC points) throw you off if you were considering him? I didnt see any of the game but read he was tagged.

Or do you think NAB games are more to check out the rookies and judge the premiums on their history?

Ditto with Rocky not having a big game. There may be more to that though with the inclusion of Beams.

Your thoughts would be great!

Thanks

Hey Mike,
it's best never to judge Prems on NAB Cup games, particularly the early ones. It is always possible they will get put to one side, and not play their regular role, to give others a chance to show what they can do, in the case that that Prem goes missing. Only use it for Rookies, and to a much lesser extent value priced players, keeping in mind, both those type of players can benefit from the scenario described above.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

My first post after a lot of study here.

I heard Rodney Eade say in an interview that he wants to rotate 8-9 players through the midfield instead of flogging the same 4-5 blokes as last year.

Can this information help us with selection?

Cheers

Hi Blossoms, welcome aboard
not really, it only brings them more in to line with what most other Clubs are doing anyway. I would think it only helps if you are bypassing Ablett, and are hoping for some improvement from someone that might benefit from him being restricted in some way.
For the most part, take things that Coaches say about structure with a grain of salt, it is usually very generic and unreliable anyway. They nearly always point towards being more flexible than last season, but when it comes down to it, it doesn't really amount to much.

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus. I'm trying to decide between Priddis and Sloane for M4. Any insights on how to split the two?!