Hi Burly,
I apply a rule to a player I select, that I know I am going to, in all likelihood, trade out/upgrade. I want them to make at least $100k profit. Rookies more like $180-$200k, but Stepping Stones, I will say "wellllll..... ok" at $80k, but less, and I think you should have gone another route. That rule may be too harsh in this situation, given the special circumstances around the R/F coverage. If you were to apply it, TBC needs to average 80 to be a good pick. I have a few things putting me off him. Firstly, I am avoiding all Essendon players, just because of the uncertainty with them about preparation etc. Secondly, his scoring and injury history. Lastly, I believe it is in the realms of possibility, even if unlikely, that Lycett could score at a F6 level. I don't believe TBC can. TBC will/should naturally improve with experience. We all know Rucks can take 2 seasons longer than a normal player, to reach their potential. This could be TBC's year to do that, but with everything else, I don't want to bet on him doing it.
Your reason for taking him is quite legitimate, but I would have a plan with him. We know he may be unreliable, so I would really be setting a Rnd 6/7 target to get him down to your Fwd line, or to R3. It's all part of the risk/reward equation. TBC is your risk, a better M5 is your reward. There is nothing wrong with that move.