Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Brettthejett]

Hey Row,

James Kelly? Av low 80-85 v good opp Hawks/Freo lost big both games but still scored good enough.
thinking going eski down to him. Thoughts?
Also going GAZ to VB most likely.
Risky i think, im leaving 707k in the kitty but think both could prob hit 100 this week so no loss in points v ablett/eski. if anything possible gain of 50 odd points

Thanks for your time.

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Row,

James Kelly? Av low 80-85 v good opp Hawks/Freo lost big both games but still scored good enough.
thinking going eski down to him. Thoughts?
Also going GAZ to VB most likely.
Risky i think, im leaving 707k in the kitty but think both could prob hit 100 this week so no loss in points v ablett/eski. if anything possible gain of 50 odd points

Thanks for your time.

As a Kelly owner, I have been following him closely. I think my problem is he's too old. He starts off really well, but he does fk all in the final quarters of games.
Birchall might be your man, great POD if you are considering ditching Malceski. Smith if you haven't got him. Simpson another obvious one.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Have worked out I could do Ablett to Sloane and Cripps to The Bont and leave my backline.
But with Cripps coming back and Goodes still in should I hang onto Cripps and upgrade Goodes?
I am undecided. I like the Bont as I could eventually move him to fwd line as f5/6 but still unsure if he will suffer from burn out and/or struggle against the good teams.
Was looking at the Goodes to Doherty trade but worried about his role with A. Walker coming back. I could persist with MJ, Broadbent, Newnes, Lumumba along with two of Saad, Oxley, Goodes and McIntosh for now as apart from Broadbent (who will lose $$) are doing ok. Not too mention the backline is the most fluctuating of the areas in regards to point scoring
So I guess I am just about sold on the like for like Ablett to Sloane trade and need to decide whether to go Cripps to the Bont or Goodes to Doherty as my other trade.

Any suggestions?

 

[d-buzzz]

Hi Rowsus, i need to get rid of Ablett + Rockliff, please help with which way i should go. I'm playing for league win only and not really focused on Overall.

(1) i keep wanting to do Dangerfield + Sloane - loving their fixtures and can see them finishing in top 10 mids - will leave me with $264 in the bank. I'll have to sit on this team for a while until rookies peak.

(2) Sloane + Bonts - Leaving me with $409 - which will give me the option to do Cripps > Jelwood next week assuming his price drops.

Don't really know anything about the bonts but every man and their dog swears that he'll be in top 6 forwards so i don't want to miss him at his current price. My current FWDS are; Gray, Swan and Martin. I initially wanted my FWDS to end with Zorko, Buddy, Boomer. Do you think Bonts will score better then these 3? I think my question really comes down to the same question everybody is asking - do we buy the bont? Any advice and reasoning going forward would be appreciated.

Thanks

 

[expl0it]

Hi Rowsus. Loving this thread ever since I found SCS. Reading your responses is like opening up presents on Christmas morning.

I've had my sights on a like for like trade for Ablett into either Sloane or Dangerfield. Liking Adelaide's draw and their new gameplay. However, just looking at the team lists I noticed that Scott Thompson is an IN. Is there any statistical evidence that shows any negative or positive impact on Sloane's or Dangerfield's SC scores? It is the one thing that is making me doubt trading in Sloane or Danger. The alternative would be JPK or Bont.

Also, I'm very unsure of what to do with my second trade. My team is linked. I have the Goodes, KK, Lambert, Miller issue. I could do a correctional trade of bringing in Sinclair, Mcgrath. If I do the Ablett to Bont trade, I would have more cash to upgrade these players.

You helped me in my time of need last year. Need your help again

Cheers.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus. Sorry to pester you again but I'm hoping you can offer some advice around KK. I am thinking of holding him now and going the conservative route of only doing the one trade this week (Gaz to Sloane). This leaves me with $250K. (I must admit the concept of trading conservatively is totally foreign to me!)

Now, if KK averages 75 - 80 what would you expect his price to be by round 12 when he has the bye? If he looks to hold his price is there merit in waiting to trade him to a (hopefully) discounted premium defender? The only thing is that I risk losing points in the meantime.

Hey Bobbie, I don't think you're pestering me.
The general rule of thumb for working out future prices for a player at a constant average is, that they will hit their approximate final price by about Round 11 or 12, depending on how far off their average is to their price, of course. If they are scoring at near last years average, they get there a bit quicker.
Generally the best factor to use is something around the 4950-4980/point of average. So if KK averages 75, by Round 12, his price should be in the $372k area, and if averages 80, around $397k. Obviously this can vary greatly, if there is a particularly high/low score in their scoring 2 or 3 weeks before Round 12.
As to whether you wait, and hold onto that $250k, the answer is, if you are unsure, then wait. You really need to make that $250k count, and if you spend it just because you think you should, and the player it's used on doesn't fill your wishes, it's a waste. If you're not completely discouraged by KK, or fully confident in Docherty, waiting would seem to be the thing to do. It would be disappointing to blow that $250k this week, just out of a "need to trade", and only getting a 5 - 12 improvement in your scoring. The disappointment would be compounded if a golden opportunity to use it arises in Round 4/5. Let your confidence decide, and if you aren't confident, save the money and the trade. There will always be another opportunity, but you don't ever get your $250k or trade back.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

I was planning on getting one of Sloane / JPK next week..would you consider a Pendles to Sloane / JPK trade this week and then pick up Pendles in a week or two.

Both Sloane / JPK should pass their breakeven but Pendles wont. It means I can get one of the two cheaper now and then get Pendles when he drops a bit. The main reason though is it gives me a chance to see if Pendles is at 100% (like with Gaz) if he injures his ankle / gets subbed / isnt at full fitness it may save me money if a trade is needed and points lost if he doesnt perform.

Worst case and Pendles is fine I lose a trade and whatever points he outscores the others by (if he does)

Thanks mate

Hey mike,
I don't like it. The reward for outlay is too small. The only scenario I see this working in, is if Pendles plays, and gets subbed out for a low score, then misses 2 or 3 weeks, or gets a LTI, and misses 5 or 6. Outside of that, I can't see you are getting the full return on your trade. Under your scenario, Pendles might drop $60k, and you might save $40-$50k on getting Sloane/JPK in that particular week!
When you think about what you are giving up, there just doesn't seem to be enough upside in your reward, unless those scenarios I painted occured. Even if Pendles is a late out, I think you hold him, as that still isn't as bad as him getting a vested 40, and further injured.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

After going Ablett>Fyfe I've got 300k in the bank and not sure how to spend it.

1. After reading yours and others advice I'm not going NVB as I have all the best rookies and it would require say a Lambert>Miller up to him which is kind of wasted

2. Sticking with my gut and not bringing the Bont in

With my last trade I am tossing up between a few options:
Option A: Goddard>Gray, Gray has performed well in losses and think he will be F1 this year, can't afford to miss out on a huge score from him. Goddard on the other hand seems to be playing utility with limited time in the mids, think he will finish the year on a 90-95.

Option B: Newnes/Lumumba>Smith, if named. If Smith is named I think he's almost a must have, and hence would make this trade somewhat easier. Hopefully he isn't named though.

Option C: Griffen/Selwood>Sloane. This is probably the most sideways out of these sideways trades, but Sloane looks real good and Selwood looks slow.

Option D: Hold, and save trades.

I''m currently leaning towards option A, what are your thoughts?

Hey dyii,
like I answered with Bobbie, only use the $300k if you are confident in the move. It's early days yet, and making rushed decisions on 2 games data is never a good idea.
A) While Goddard to Gray might cost $30k more next week, if Goddard hits the higher end of your expectation, he's a Keeper. I'm not sure it is wise to burn a trade to go from one Keeper to another, even if it is going from F6 to F1.
B) I'm still not 100% sold that Lumumba and Newnes are duds, but if I was moving one, it would be Lumumba. He has a longer history, and had chances to do better, albeit in a stronger team, whereas at least Newnes appears to be on the up. I doubt Smith will play this week, and if he does, he's a chance to put in a quiet one anyway, just like Parker in Round 2 coming off a knock as well.
C) Griffen has never been a consistent performer, and has always derived his average from 4 or 5 monsters, mixed with 5 lower scores, so he is still capable of doing what you picked him for. I've never liked him, but if I picked him, I'd probably stick with him, as GWS have a friendly early draw. Selwood isn't performing to his usual level, but he can turn that around in one week. I think it would be crazy to trade him out.
In summary, I'd save your trades. If you have to trade, I'd go Griffen to Sloane, if you really think it was a mistake to take him, otherwise ride him out. Lastly, if you think Smith will be unaffected, you could go Lumumba to Smith, but I still think not trading is your best bet.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, Leuie out has thwarted my Gaz/C Smith to Heeney/JPK plan. Now need to go Gaz/Leuie to JPK/NicNat. Looks like I'm going to miss Heeney but see no alternatives. Have I missed anything?

Thanks mate....

I know its a question for Rowsus, but just want to help Rowsus with the load here
Gaz/Leuy>Heeney>Nic Nat
You can get JPK anytime you want.

Thanks Pro, just figured I was better off changing Gaz to premo. Ur saying I ride the rookie train instead? Leaves me 3 premos plus Neale in mids.

Edit: am with you now Pro. Rookie mistake, have plenty of $ left in the bank. Will upg C Smith to JPK next week.

JPK has a B/E of 104, so shouldn't rise more than $20k, if even that much. Pro's advice is right. Take Heeney this week, assuming he's not sub, grab your Leuey to NicNat, then go C Smith to JPK next week. It will cost you potentially say 50 points, but the dollars produced will more than make up for it.

 

[Rowsus]

Hiya Row,

Thanks for all the help and the interesting advice. I was very much looking forward to hearing your theory of time travel yet alas it is even beyond you

I have Leuy, no cover and about $400,000 to spend. I think maybe his out is disciplinary due to a lack of effort on the part of the brissie boys and he looks like he may be one of the boys held to account, like Aish last week. In that should I now ride the donut (that sounds kinda wrong) and believe that he will come back next week or should I just trade and maybe bring in Grundy? Who I think may be looking ok this year and will make money this week with a low B/E. I cannot see another option I like at this stage within the lower money values, TBC is a No and I think Wood is possibly just that dead .... It is a risk with Grundy but I think maybe he has surpassed Witts in the ranking at Collingwood and his DE isn't disgusting like so many other rucks of the lower echelons. I suppose the other option is Blicavs but I get the feel as a mr fix it he will have quite a few lock down roles.

Your thoughts as always would be highly appreciated
Cheers

As a Kelly owner, I have been following him closely. I think my problem is he's too old. He starts off really well, but he does fk all in the final quarters of games.
Birchall might be your man, great POD if you are considering ditching Malceski. Smith if you haven't got him. Simpson another obvious one.

Hiya Kafka,
it seems like you have 4 choices.
Back your judgement that it's a one week out for a kick up the @rse, and just wear the donut. - That decision depends on how you think he Leuey will respond to such things. Will he rise to the challenge, or just sook and be no good? He could actually represent a decent POD, if you just keep him. Remember, those that have cover, and Keep him, are just getting say Lonie's score as coverage, not Ryder/Lycett's, as they are on the ground anyway.
You could take a cheapish option in Grundy, or even Lycett or NicNat are still cheaper than the big ticket guys. I'm guessing you might have NicNat already, or decided not to risk him/didn't like him, so let's count him out.
You could go to Goldy, who I am confident will have another big week this week. Tippett/Pyke smashed Ryder/Redden last week, and Ryder has to do it by himself this week, against one of the best in the game!
Lastly, you could help me build that time machine, and we'll both go back in time, and be sitting 1st and 2nd after Round 2!
You went in without cover, and knowing this possibilty would arise. What did you tell yourself you would do if/when this happened? Trade around the problem, or wear a one week donut if it was early? I said 2 weeks before the season started, that I was expecting carnage like no other season this season. I forecast that Coaches might be best just to eat a Rookie donut here and there, rather than burning trades to fix a 50-60 point problem. In your shoes, with what you believe, I'd take the donut, UNLESS your plan at the start of the season was to trade around it. If it was, I'd take the opportunity to take Goldy this week. Throwing another Midpricer in there might lead to the same problem in a week or two anyway.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

James Kelly? Av low 80-85 v good opp Hawks/Freo lost big both games but still scored good enough.
thinking going eski down to him. Thoughts?
Also going GAZ to VB most likely.
Risky i think, im leaving 707k in the kitty but think both could prob hit 100 this week so no loss in points v ablett/eski. if anything possible gain of 50 odd points

Thanks for your time.

As a Kelly owner, I have been following him closely. I think my problem is he's too old. He starts off really well, but he does fk all in the final quarters of games.
Birchall might be your man, great POD if you are considering ditching Malceski. Smith if you haven't got him. Simpson another obvious one.

Hey Btj,
to be honest, I don't like it. If you are going to crash your selected D1, you want to get someone you are confident will be a Keeper, not someone you hope will be a Keeper. I'm guessing, if you were confident Kelly was a Keeper, you would have started him. He hasn't really done anything this season to improve our opinion of him/his role, so I can't see it being a good risk. He has been playing run with roles for at least part of both games so far, and we know how SC-unfriendly that can be. I'd look to your pre-season list, and grab the player you don't have, that is most likely to be a Keeper.
As to Gaz to NvB, I'd only do it if you need the Cash cow, ie you don't have say 6 of the top 7, and a few others on the boil. I wouldn't grab NvB just for the sake of it, you may as well go Ablett to the Prem of your choice this week, if that's the case.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Have worked out I could do Ablett to Sloane and Cripps to The Bont and leave my backline.
But with Cripps coming back and Goodes still in should I hang onto Cripps and upgrade Goodes?
I am undecided. I like the Bont as I could eventually move him to fwd line as f5/6 but still unsure if he will suffer from burn out and/or struggle against the good teams.
Was looking at the Goodes to Doherty trade but worried about his role with A. Walker coming back. I could persist with MJ, Broadbent, Newnes, Lumumba along with two of Saad, Oxley, Goodes and McIntosh for now as apart from Broadbent (who will lose $$) are doing ok. Not too mention the backline is the most fluctuating of the areas in regards to point scoring
So I guess I am just about sold on the like for like Ablett to Sloane trade and need to decide whether to go Cripps to the Bont or Goodes to Doherty as my other trade.

Any suggestions?

Hey Slammer,
I think I'd hold the 2nd trade, unless you are really confident in Docherty/Bont being Keepers.
At the end of the season, you usually have 5 or 6 trades you made that you regret, and one or two you didn't make you regret. If you hold the trade, other opportunities will appear, that's for certain. But I reiterate, if you are confident you have identified a Keeper, then pull the trigger.
Remember, it's a season decision with Keepers, and you can't judge the success, or otherwise, on trading that type in, on just 2 or 3 weeks scores after you got them.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, i need to get rid of Ablett + Rockliff, please help with which way i should go. I'm playing for league win only and not really focused on Overall.

(1) i keep wanting to do Dangerfield + Sloane - loving their fixtures and can see them finishing in top 10 mids - will leave me with $264 in the bank. I'll have to sit on this team for a while until rookies peak.

(2) Sloane + Bonts - Leaving me with $409 - which will give me the option to do Cripps > Jelwood next week assuming his price drops.

Don't really know anything about the bonts but every man and their dog swears that he'll be in top 6 forwards so i don't want to miss him at his current price. My current FWDS are; Gray, Swan and Martin. I initially wanted my FWDS to end with Zorko, Buddy, Boomer. Do you think Bonts will score better then these 3? I think my question really comes down to the same question everybody is asking - do we buy the bont? Any advice and reasoning going forward would be appreciated.

Thanks

Hi d-buzzz,
I can't say with any confidence, that Bont will be a better pick than any of Buddy/Zorks/Boomer. In your position, I would only get the Bont, if you are confident your current list of players holds an advantage over your League opposition, and you want to nullify a POD against you, otherwise, you might be best to stick to your plan, and have a POD against them.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
I think I'd hold the 2nd trade, unless you are really confident in Docherty/Bont being Keepers.
At the end of the season, you usually have 5 or 6 trades you made that you regret, and one or two you didn't make you regret. If you hold the trade, other opportunities will appear, that's for certain. But I reiterate, if you are confident you have identified a Keeper, then pull the trigger.
Remember, it's a season decision with Keepers, and you can't judge the success, or otherwise, on trading that type in, on just 2 or 3 weeks scores after you got them.

Thanks mate
Maybe I am just jumping on the Bont bandwagon like yourself.
Its a tough call

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Loving this thread ever since I found SCS. Reading your responses is like opening up presents on Christmas morning.

I've had my sights on a like for like trade for Ablett into either Sloane or Dangerfield. Liking Adelaide's draw and their new gameplay. However, just looking at the team lists I noticed that Scott Thompson is an IN. Is there any statistical evidence that shows any negative or positive impact on Sloane's or Dangerfield's SC scores? It is the one thing that is making me doubt trading in Sloane or Danger. The alternative would be JPK or Bont.

Also, I'm very unsure of what to do with my second trade. My team is linked. I have the Goodes, KK, Lambert, Miller issue. I could do a correctional trade of bringing in Sinclair, Mcgrath. If I do the Ablett to Bont trade, I would have more cash to upgrade these players.

You helped me in my time of need last year. Need your help again

Cheers.

Hi expl0it, I'm glad you're enjoying it.
There is too little information on Sloane/Danger without Thompson. Thompson missed 3 games last season, 1 in 2010, 1 in 2009, then you have to go back to 2006!!! It's not worth the analysis, as we are getting back beyond where Sloane/Danger started.
If you're keen on Danger, and you like Docherty, you can go Ablett/Goodes to Danger/Docherty. Otherwise, I'd go to Sloane, and either hope Goodes can beat his B/E this week, or turn Goodes into one of Brown/Hunt/Roberton, but more likely Hunt.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks mate
Maybe I am just jumping on the Bont bandwagon like yourself.
Its a tough call

I'm having 2nd thoughts about Bont now, and I'm looking at what my other options might be.

 

[Juzzo]

Howdy Rowsus

I haven't had to alter my back rookies, I started with Saad, McIntosh and Oxely, sweet!

On the other hand I still have Rocky, Ablett, Miller ( who is in this week ) and Lambert (out for weeks) and the only rookie I really need is Hogan and maybe NVB.

Thinking of going Rocky, Ablett to Hogan, Sloane and keeping Lambert as a FD

What to you reckon?

Cheers

 

[Jurn Stern]

I'm having 2nd thoughts about Bont now, and I'm looking at what my other options might be.

I thought you may come around. We can't have the scores from his first two games, the Dogs have a tough run coming up, we are yet to see him this season in a loss or against quality opposition, and most importantly, I don't think you had him in your team all preseason. Don't change your mind of a 2nd year player after two good games.

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Bobbie, I don't think you're pestering me.
The general rule of thumb for working out future prices for a player at a constant average is, that they will hit their approximate final price by about Round 11 or 12, depending on how far off their average is to their price, of course. If they are scoring at near last years average, they get there a bit quicker.
Generally the best factor to use is something around the 4950-4980/point of average. So if KK averages 75, by Round 12, his price should be in the $372k area, and if averages 80, around $397k. Obviously this can vary greatly, if there is a particularly high/low score in their scoring 2 or 3 weeks before Round 12.
As to whether you wait, and hold onto that $250k, the answer is, if you are unsure, then wait. You really need to make that $250k count, and if you spend it just because you think you should, and the player it's used on doesn't fill your wishes, it's a waste. If you're not completely discouraged by KK, or fully confident in Docherty, waiting would seem to be the thing to do. It would be disappointing to blow that $250k this week, just out of a "need to trade", and only getting a 5 - 12 improvement in your scoring. The disappointment would be compounded if a golden opportunity to use it arises in Round 4/5. Let your confidence decide, and if you aren't confident, save the money and the trade. There will always be another opportunity, but you don't ever get your $250k or trade back.

Thanks for taking the time to reply Rowsus. Your advice makes a lot of sense in that I'm not 100% confident in the KK > Dochery trade. I think it is best to hold off and wait it out a bit longer, as long as KK doesn't lose too much value then I'll be happy.

My second trade may be better used on Lamb to McGrath but to be honest I haven't really put much thought into that direction yet.

 

[Shaahorn]

Rowsus,

A.Young named on a wing - are you excited enough to bring him straight into your side?