Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Interested in your thoughts on Angus Monfries, started at $340,600 and decreased by $20,300 due to his round one score of 8 where he donned the green vest due to no preseason match conditioning.

Has averaged 83.3 (2011) and 90.2 (2013) previously. Averaged 69.9 last year (including finals), which includes receiving the green vest once, and wearing the red vest twice due to injuries. These 3 games removed, and his average was 73.4.

Was considering him prior to this round, and now the Wines injury has caused me to further consider getting him in for Salem/Clark (I have the money) in an attempt to receive higher, more predictable scores, all whilst increasing in price to later move on up to a fallen premium (probably to one of his teammates in Ryder or Gray). I see more midfield time coming Monfries' way (26 touches/10 marks vs Swans last week), and also Port Adelaide's draw will open up after versing the past 3 grand final participants in the opening 3 rounds.

I know everyone has Clark, but out of all my on-field rookies, he is the least comfortable I am about fielding. Seems as though he is in for a fair few <50 scores. Salem is another who hasn't quite met my expectations. Both of which I'd be willing to cull to make way for Monfries, the question is though, is Gus worth it, even at a discounted price?

Hi Max,
I'm not often blunt, but let me blunt here. It's a crazy move, and the quicker you forget it, and move on the better!
Your own research, his history, and his two non-subbed games this season suggest he is around 75/game as a player.
A players price tends towards around 4,980 times their average. This can vary with a particularly low/high score thrown in, as the players reach close to their "final" price. This usually happens around Round 11 or 12 for consistent players. Of course the true final price has a lot of vagaries, but you get the idea.
So if Monfries is going to be a 75 player, his price is heading towards 4,980 x 75 = $373,500.
You need to ask yourself, why would you burn a trade, and a Cash cow, even a poorish one, to bring in a player to give you 75/game, and around $53k in growth? Definitely a wasted trade. You would need to be of the opinion that Monfries will at worst be an 85 player, and probably better, before you even consider that trade.

 

[The Experiment]

Hi Rowsus, I am another who needs to replace Bartel...

I am not enamoured by any of the 'mainstream' forwards like Buddy, Roughy, Bont or the key forwards in Pav, Tex, Kennedy...

I wanted to hear your thoughts on Dahlhaus and Devon Smith, Smith in particular I had in my team for most of the preseason, he has gone 63, 70, 91 over the past 3 seasons and is currently averaging 100...do you think this is something he can maintain as GWS start to win more games?

Thanks in advance

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus

I've asked this and got a response opposing this from others but its still lingering in my mind. I'd love you to belt it out of my head.

I'm tempted with a Bartel to J.Martin, and a Gibbo/Newnes trade to T.Hunt

My team has struggled and struggling to get to 2000 each week. It really hasn't helped with my team starting off with Ablett and Rockliff, and now has a Bartel issue too! Newnes, Harry Taylor and Gibson have been struggling also. Every week there seems to be a new issue. I have however stayed true to my composure theory and only traded out when needed, so I've only used 2 (with Rocky coming back this week, seems I shouldn't of traded him).

Would you think a Bartel to J.Martin trade is a bad option? I also am thinking about Bont as well, but I like having a bit of money and waiting for my rookies to grow and then try to bring fallen premiums in like Danger in a few weeks time.
The other trade that has been opposed to is one of my premium defenders (H.T, Newnes or Gibbo) down to T.Hunt to make money and to use him as a stepping stone.

Trading down two premiums for mid pricers is risky, but I feel like my team is struggling and is in need of a creative move to make funds and injecting talent in. I know the Hunt move may be stupid, but I'm just thinking that either Gibbo (really struggling to score being KPP) and Newnes (DE is shocking and decision making needs a lot of work) are two players that may not be keepers in the end.

My other option is Bartel to J.Martin and Anderson to Bont, but that leaves me with only 130k left for future spending.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Is mumford>Goldstein worth it?
Mumford will require a trade sometime anyways, might as well grab the certain R1?

Also, since oliver wines is injured?
Who should I replace him with? Sloane or Fyfe? Not looking for a Pod here, Fyfe is a certain top 3 where as Sloane looks like a likely top 8


Cheers Prochard

Hey Pro,
the simple and short answer is "yes".
Mumford has driven his bus to the corner of DumpNow St and KeepForever Ave, and he's asking his passengers which way to go.
His price dropped $43k this week, and with a B/E of 170, it could easily drop that same amount again next week. It basically means you need to commit to keeping him for the long haul, or get out now while it's easier as the value is still there. The changeover cost is $13.6K this week, and could be as much as $65k next week. Those that have Mummy, but not Goldy have what I believe to be an easy choice this week. Those like me, that have Mummy, and already have Goldy, face a tougher choice. It's all part of the one thing that is really annoying me about this season. Nearly everything that is happening so far is pushing 50-80% of teams in the same direction. Where as in the past, there were by this time of the season, 4-6 common Keepers in most of the top teams (and by most, I am talking over 50%, not over 75%), and maybe 8 to 10 Rookies. This season we are already looking at 8-10 Keepers and 12-14 Rookies. It means those that didn't have Rocky/Ablett/Wines/Bartel type problems are at a huge advantage over the rest. It's actually hard to think it is possible that this years winner had even 2 of those players to start with, or worse with Wines, traded in for Rocky/Ablett. Every injury replacement is pushing Coaches into the same replacement other teams already have. The "sameness" is growing, and those unfortunate Coaches, like me, that have had 2 or more of those players either need to risk a POD, or step back in line with the crowd, a few hundred points behind the pack.
I'm taking it as it comes with that. I am going Mummy to NicNat this week, so I will have probably the 2 most popular Rucks in my team, which I am not thrilled about. I'm also bringing in another popular player in this week, in Swan. It makes me hate my trades this week. But where I can, I am making POD decisions, like Neale, and avoiding unproven popular players like Bontempelli. We all need a few players to separate us from the growing throng. This year more than any other, the throng of same looking teams is going to be huge!

 

[Max Power]

Hi Max,
I'm not often blunt, but let me blunt here. It's a crazy move, and the quicker you forget it, and move on the better!
Your own research, his history, and his two non-subbed games this season suggest he is around 75/game as a player.
A players price tends towards around 4,980 times their average. This can vary with a particularly low/high score thrown in, as the players reach close to their "final" price. This usually happens around Round 11 or 12 for consistent players. Of course the true final price has a lot of vagaries, but you get the idea.
So if Monfries is going to be a 75 player, his price is heading towards 4,980 x 75 = $373,500.
You need to ask yourself, why would you burn a trade, and a Cash cow, even a poorish one, to bring in a player to give you 75/game, and around $53k in growth? Definitely a wasted trade. You would need to be of the opinion that Monfries will at worst be an 85 player, and probably better, before you even consider that trade.

Thanks for the bluntness Rowsus, in all honesty, I needed it.

I think, no, I know, that I get too bored with this game/hobby in terms of the forecasting side of things. I'm 19, have been playing SC literally since it was released (I think I was in grade 4?), so that's over half my life playing this at times wretched game without missing a season/pre-season planning phase. It's gotten to the point where I intuitively know the correct course of action to take (given the historical, statistical and economical support in which to base decisions upon), but I inevitably get lured down some obscure path purely for the sake of it being something different and exciting, whilst turning a blind eye to the sheer implausibility of that path leading me to the $50k pot of gold at the end.

I've read you talk about similar symptoms on this thread before, and I'd say given your statistical background, there'd be more than a few stories of you wanting to take a punt purely for the sake of being that guy who zigs when everyone else zags.

That's it, I'm just going to proceed through this season, for the first time in many years, to trade in the most economic and resourceful manner possible. No more of this guy who actually considers culling a cow (and a trade) to bring in Monfries just because it's an untested strategy.

Thanks for the wake-up call mate!

P.S. Please share on if you have/do get the urge just to throw caution to wind even though you intuitively know it's improbable to pay dividends down the line. Or maybe it's just me lol.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus; I've got a bit of a warchest so I'm looking to do a couple of upgrades.

Excluding Hibberd, Newnes, Birchall, Higgins, Fyfe, Pendlebury, Gray, Swan, Martin and Ruckmen; which two players in DEF, MID or FWD would you want to bring in?

Hey Eagling
interesting exclusion list. There's a couple there I wouldn't be suggesting people bring in.
As I assume you are looking at Keepers, my picks are pretty Vanilla, unfortunately.
Def: Smith, Simpson - though I'd wait a week on Simpson for price drop.
Mid: Sloane, Selwood
Fwd: Gone from the supposedly easiest line to pick, to possibly the hardest now!
Franklin, but he misses games late in the season. Harvey/Goddard, but wait for further price drops.

 

[Max Power]

Hey Eagling
interesting exclusion list. There's a couple there I wouldn't be suggesting people bring in.
As I assume you are looking at Keepers, my picks are pretty Vanilla, unfortunately.
Def: Smith, Simpson - though I'd wait a week on Simpson for price drop.
Mid: Sloane, Selwood
Fwd: Gone from the supposedly easiest line to pick, to possibly the hardest now!
Franklin, but he misses games late in the season. Harvey/Goddard, but wait for further price drops.

I've got to start perceiving Vanilla as the next best thing since sliced bread, I think that's my problem in a nutshell.

 

[sangkuriang]

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2015-04-20/injury-update-round-3

Is it possible to hold Ollie, Rowsus? I'll only be trading back in in 5 weeks, and have Bartel to deal with as well.

26 trades left atm but cash in the bank, Sinclair, Cripps and Krak as mid cover.

 

[brad182]

Hey Rowsus, what's your thought on maybe bringing in Brad Ebert?
Looks like a nice POD and Port have a really juicy fixture coming out. Also with Wines out, makes me want to get him that much more!

 

[Juzzo]

Howdy mate,

I'm in the started with Rocky, Ablett, Bartel group of unhappy Supercoaches.
I also have underperforming PODs in Geary, Haynes and Macrae.
An obvious trade this week would be Bartel to Swan, but both Haynes and Macrae are dropping in price.
Would it be ludicrous to nip these mistakes in the bud now and offload Haynes and Macrae who are going down in price for say Hodge and Swan who are rising and get rid of Bartel next week (this week he is a good loophole option up forward).
I could also get cute and fiddle with my rucks (Blicavs, Ryder and Belly), belly could go for premium Goldy?
Or should I jut be going Swan in for Bartel.
I have $761,400 in the war chest after previously trading out premium injuries.
My team link is working

No hurry mate, as always I appreciate your time in answering my questions.

Cheers

 

[Courtesans]

I've got to start perceiving Vanilla as the next best thing since sliced bread, I think that's my problem in a nutshell.

I went vanilla and lost three premiums in three weeks. Must have been Coles vanilla and not Dairybell.

 

[sangkuriang]

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2015-04-20/injury-update-round-3

Is it possible to hold Ollie, Rowsus? I'll only be trading back in in 5 weeks, and have Bartel to deal with as well.

26 trades left atm but cash in the bank, Sinclair, Cripps and Krak as mid cover.

Thanks in advance Rowsus - just to let you know my team link is working now.

 

[Brookesy]

Hi Rowsus, First, I just want to say how much I appreciate your insight. I am perennial Supercoach failure but this thread (forum in general) has helped me make a few less terrible decisions so far this year.

Anyway, I m getting rid of Bartel and KK this week and have $67,500 in the bank. I have Bonts in mids (who I can swing to feds) and my Def 6-8 are McIntosh, Oxley and Saad.

I am considering one of the following:

Swan and Hibberd, and no cash,

or

Sloane and Byrne/Andrews/Kelly/Whitecross and $200k.

Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Max Power]

I went vanilla and lost three premiums in three weeks. Must have been Coles vanilla and not Dairybell.

Hahaha yes. But that's a shame, particularly to start the season after waiting all preseason. I guess the benefit of vanilla in this case is that risk is mitigated if it so happens that players get injured or don't meet expectations (e.g. Caddy 2014), couldn't imagine the pain of three consecutive premium injuries in a POD-dominate team.

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Rowsus

I have Wines and Bartel but have decided to address Bartel next week and deal with Wines this week.

I have also decided not to upgrade Wines to the usual Sloane etc as everyone in front of me will probably have these types of players and I will never make up the ground. So&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..

Wines to Heppell
J Nelson to Krakouer.

The Krakouer trade allows me to switch him into the forward line as I have the Silence of the Lambs on the bench (aka T Lamb and K Lambert). Although Lamb is a chance this week after a disgraceful performance by his team mates against the Dockers I would not be holding my breath as he wasn&#8217;t even listed as an emg in the Derby. Therefore I expect to have no bench coverage for Bartel so a Krakouer/Lambert switch solves that issue.

Then before Rd 5 I&#8217;ll move Bartel out- possibly for Boomer Harvey who may have dropped even more $ by then.

Any feedback on these trades appreciated.

Finally like you I have A Swallow in my team. I was hoping he would start with a bang early (which he has done before) and I could use him to trade up to an elite premium. Clearly he has not done that. Is he a hold or do we cut and run?

 

[Benno]

Hey Pro,
the simple and short answer is "yes".
Mumford has driven his bus to the corner of DumpNow St and KeepForever Ave, and he's asking his passengers which way to go.
His price dropped $43k this week, and with a B/E of 170, it could easily drop that same amount again next week. It basically means you need to commit to keeping him for the long haul, or get out now while it's easier as the value is still there. The changeover cost is $13.6K this week, and could be as much as $65k next week. Those that have Mummy, but not Goldy have what I believe to be an easy choice this week. Those like me, that have Mummy, and already have Goldy, face a tougher choice. It's all part of the one thing that is really annoying me about this season. Nearly everything that is happening so far is pushing 50-80% of teams in the same direction. Where as in the past, there were by this time of the season, 4-6 common Keepers in most of the top teams (and by most, I am talking over 50%, not over 75%), and maybe 8 to 10 Rookies. This season we are already looking at 8-10 Keepers and 12-14 Rookies. It means those that didn't have Rocky/Ablett/Wines/Bartel type problems are at a huge advantage over the rest. It's actually hard to think it is possible that this years winner had even 2 of those players to start with, or worse with Wines, traded in for Rocky/Ablett. Every injury replacement is pushing Coaches into the same replacement other teams already have. The "sameness" is growing, and those unfortunate Coaches, like me, that have had 2 or more of those players either need to risk a POD, or step back in line with the crowd, a few hundred points behind the pack.
I'm taking it as it comes with that. I am going Mummy to NicNat this week, so I will have probably the 2 most popular Rucks in my team, which I am not thrilled about. I'm also bringing in another popular player in this week, in Swan. It makes me hate my trades this week. But where I can, I am making POD decisions, like Neale, and avoiding unproven popular players like Bontempelli. We all need a few players to separate us from the growing throng. This year more than any other, the throng of same looking teams is going to be huge!

What are your thoughts on using 2 trades to go Mumford to Goldstien? is it worth it? I'm an annoying $700 short :/

It was something I'd thought of earlier but then dismissed, but after giving it some more thought, reading your comments as well as others re Mumford, as well as THCLT's comment (quoted below) being along the lines of what I was thinking of doing, I'm now warming to the idea again. Mumford > Goldstien seems like a no brainer, but if it requires a second trade I'm not 100% sure if it's worth it and if it makes the trade lose its value. Keeping Mummy could be a ballsy POD move, but I'm worried of the big cash loss and likely point leakage. Any help would be great

Ouch mate, if your team link is correct...maybe you can downgrade J Lonie (may miss this week) to Krakouer a week early to fund your Mumford to Goldstein trade.

Krakouer DPP also open up link to Bennell and Gray in your midfield.

 

[Zoku Pops]

Are you planning on doing weekly trade tables this year Rowsus? They were brilliant last year.

Also, is there any merit in doing a Bellchambers to Jack Martin sideways trade? Happy to forfeit my ruck cover, only reason I had it was because I thought Bellchambers could average 85ish. Jack Martin looks good, seems go be playing midfield, softish draw coming up and has a negative breakeven.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. I'm back for some much needed advice. I have $250K in the bank and have only used one trade so far (Gaz to Sloane). Looking at my team I can see two major problems - KK and McEvoy.

I was in the mindset of holding KK for a while longer thinking he could at least average 70-odd. After yesterday I'm not so sure! Do you have any advice on how to best use my trades and cash this week. I don't want to blow all my cash - ideally I'd like to keep ~$50K for a rainy day. Perhaps I need to pick the worst one out of KK and McEvoy and just concentrate on fixing that in the first instance? Thanks.

*Edit - just tinkering with trades and I can go McEvoy/KK to Blicavs/Hodge and still have $116K in the bank. The other options for McEvoy are Grundy or Smith. Also, happy to consider other defenders over Hodge such as Birchall or Smith.

Thoughts? It's very tempting!!

Hi Bobbie,
it's a pickle alright!
The general approach when fixing a MidPricer is to trade them all the way up, or all the way down.
And that's where the pickle is. There is no "all the way down" for McEvoy, and the only "all the way down"'s for KK are risky one game Rookies. On the all the way up side, the question becomes for any Coach that wants to go "up" in their Rucks, who already has Goldy, which one do I get? There's no easy answer there. That leaves "all the way up" with KK as your remaining option.
I'm not sure why you decided on Hodge. It's pretty much accepted that he will get rested and vested as the season goes on. He's only had 2 seasons since 2008 with more than 19 games, and has been known to get red vests as well. His last 3 seasons have been; 8/86, 20/97, 19/92. If you take Hodge at that price, you probably want at least 95, possibly 98 from him. To return 98 from say 18 games, he actually needs to average 106, as the 4 games you replace him with a Rookie might only average 60. Tough ask when his best season in the last 3 is 97. It leaves you with Simpson or Smith, and if you're like me, you hate picking the ones everyone else is. Most will probably leave Simpson this week, because of his 126 B/E, but he's a chance to go close to that this week. His recent scores against St Kilda are 72, 145, 119, 66, 92. Looks like he's pretty good, or pretty bad against them! Smith's B/E is 108, and he's a chance to be there abouts.
That leaves McEvoy. The options, as you have rightly identified, if you are trying to go down in price, are Blicavs, Smith and Grundy. I really considered a Mummy to Blicavs myself this week. At the moment, I am probably going to NicNat. He always goes terribly against Freo, so I'm not concerned about his most recent score. You could make an arguement for any of the 3, but Smith is probably the outsider. Bad history for game Counts, and he is "shining" right now, as his draw is ok early, but that will change. I think given the purpose you are picking them for, as a stop gap until something better comes along, and Grundy's draw has 5 games before his Round 12 that are easyish, as far as Ruck assignments go, and he gives you the most Cash, I'd go Grundy. Blicavs has the round 13 advantage, but a tougher draw to deal with.

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Bobbie,
it's a pickle alright!
The general approach when fixing a MidPricer is to trade them all the way up, or all the way down.
And that's where the pickle is. There is no "all the way down" for McEvoy, and the only "all the way down"'s for KK are risky one game Rookies. On the all the way up side, the question becomes for any Coach that wants to go "up" in their Rucks, who already has Goldy, which one do I get? There's no easy answer there. That leaves "all the way up" with KK as your remaining option.
I'm not sure why you decided on Hodge. It's pretty much accepted that he will get rested and vested as the season goes on. He's only had 2 seasons since 2008 with more than 19 games, and has been known to get red vests as well. His last 3 seasons have been; 8/86, 20/97, 19/92. If you take Hodge at that price, you probably want at least 95, possibly 98 from him. To return 98 from say 18 games, he actually needs to average 106, as the 4 games you replace him with a Rookie might only average 60. Tough ask when his best season in the last 3 is 97. It leaves you with Simpson or Smith, and if you're like me, you hate picking the ones everyone else is. Most will probably leave Simpson this week, because of his 126 B/E, but he's a chance to go close to that this week. His recent scores against St Kilda are 72, 145, 119, 66, 92. Looks like he's pretty good, or pretty bad against them! Smith's B/E is 108, and he's a chance to be there abouts.
That leaves McEvoy. The options, as you have rightly identified, if you are trying to go down in price, are Blicavs, Smith and Grundy. I really considered a Mummy to Blicavs myself this week. At the moment, I am probably going to NicNat. He always goes terribly against Freo, so I'm not concerned about his most recent score. You could make an arguement for any of the 3, but Smith is probably the outsider. Bad history for game Counts, and he is "shining" right now, as his draw is ok early, but that will change. I think given the purpose you are picking them for, as a stop gap until something better comes along, and Grundy's draw has 5 games before his Round 12 that are easyish, as far as Ruck assignments go, and he gives you the most Cash, I'd go Grundy. Blicavs has the round 13 advantage, but a tougher draw to deal with.

Cheers Rowsus. I think Grundy might be the way to go but I must admit I don't know a lot about him. Does he score his points much the same as Blicavs by getting possessions around the ground rather than relying on hitouts? I'll have to do some homework!

As for the KK upgrade, I'm not really sure of Simpson. I had him last year and he can pull some real shockers. If I was to go for him I will need to weigh up the benefit of waiting a week to possibly get a price drop. However, any price reduction in Simpson is sure to be o***et by a price drop in KK!!!

Is there any reason not to pick Birchall instead who is slightly cheaper at $477K?

 

[Jurn Stern]

Hey Rowsus,

I have Bartel, and am looking to flick him via DPP for either a ruck Goldstein or Jacobs (via TBC), or a back in Smith, Birchall or Simpson (via Gray and FD).

It'll depend on my Friday night rookie scores, but is there merit in selecting Jacobs over Goldy? I have Nic Nat and TBC, meaning I would have two playing rucks through the bye rounds if i took Jacobs.