Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[lappinitup]

Don't usually look to others for advice on supercoach, prefer to make my own call. However, have really landed myself in trouble with a few shocking selections at the start of round 1.

Somehow I traded out Swan for Lycett at the last minute.

I now have Bartel, Lycett and Leunberger that all have to go this week. Have goodes/newnes/swallow who I am willing to hold for a bit.

If Leu plays, my decision is easy. Bartel/Lycett >> Swan and Bont. Look to upgrade Leu in coming weeks.

If Leu doesn't play, do I cop the donut in the rucks? Or continue to play Lycett (who could just as easily be dropped).

Thoughts?

 

[Prochard]

Hey rowsus
Fyfe or Sloane for wines? Sloane helps me with my byes but obviously Fyfe is the better player

 

[Cattleherder]

Hello Rowsus

I read your advice that its time to trade out Mumford for Natanui. Would you suggest it is also time to trade out Jacobs for Natanui or Blicavs? I have Goldstein and TBC as dpp.

Thanks

 

[Lukus193]

I agree with JMAC, I don't believe he is being tagged out of games. I think his role hasn't been the same one he had at the Bullies in his golden days.
My suggestion is, he's not a priority to fix this week, but if you have nothing else that requires your trades, AND you have a little cash so you can get to a genuine Keeper, then why not fix him? I don't think I would trade him to a Stepping Stone, as that is locking in another trade. You took Griffen with the hope that you'd keep him, and taking a Stepping Stone might just be swapping one problem for another.
Your 3 options seem to be:
Ride him out a bit longer. His B/E is only 107, so he won't leak heaps of cash while you explore options.
Upgrade him to a genuine Keeper - Fyfe/Sloane/Pendles/Selwood type player.
Downgrade to Krakouer in a cash grab. I really hate recommending a 1 game Rookie, but if you are desparate to rid yourself of Griffen, and you think the cash grab is your best option, then Krakouer does look the best way out.
I would only go the downgrade uption this week, if getting the cash early will allow you do to something special, otherwise I'd wait a week, and make sure Krakouer is selected for his bubble game.

Wise words there Rowsus as always!!

Might wait a week and see how he goes vs the Suns.

BE of 107 is more than attainable.

Really appreciate the help!!

 

[darkshines]

FWIW I think Krakouer is a certainty to stay in the team from now (disclosure - don't have him, but probably will go Yarran to Krak this week)

Kenny's built a team on some superb top end talent, but there are a few in the team that are runners foremost, and footballers secondly. After just the one game, Krakouer seems to provide both an animal attack on the ball and genuine class/skill, which provides a bit of a POD to many of his teammates. On this basis along I see him as a permanent fixture from here, essentially the delay was all about getting him fit enough I reckon. Impey's injury gives him a solid few games to secure his spot, but I don't necessarily think he needs to stay back.

I'd say Ah Chee, White, Mitchell and even Monfries will be examined before he does.

 

[expl0it]

Hi Rowsus.

I've got the Wines issue to deal with this week and I've got no cash (just $6,000 to be exact). So there's no major premiums to straight swap to - only ones I can see myself considering is Neale or Rich. But would really want a premium keeper.

So the other option would be to either:

1. Upgrade my DEF instead by trading out Wines for B. Smith (via Saad DPP)
2. Downgrade KK to Whitecross and upgrade Wines to Sloane
3. Upgrade FWD by trading Wines for best FWD option (Bont? Dahlhaus?) and swing Lambert to MIDS
4. Downgrade Wines to Krakour and trade out KK to B. Smith - should build up my warchest of $$$

I'm thinking Option 1 is better as it uses just the one trade and I can shore up the DEF line. However, I'm also liking Option 2 and 4 as I haven't been happy with KK's output and the role he's playing under Eade.

What would be your recommended course of action?

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus

I did ask a question the previous page, but I was wondering if I could post a more general one.

At what point of he season, would you panic and start trading a lot more if you have had a bad start? I've had injury worries and I've only traded them out, and I believe I'm committed to allowing my rookies to grow, especially at the start of this year, but at what point should I start really looking into boosting them? I'm at 1-1 in my money league, and I really want to win it. I don't think I'll win my next game, and so i'll most likely drop out of the 8, and what point do I bite the bullet and change things around because if I'm struggling at the 5-6 game mark with only 1 win, obviously my starting team was no good.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Sadly my SuperCoach misery continues with injuries to my stepping stone Wallis and Bartel.
Coupled with the fact I started with Rocky and Ablett then traded in Docherty this week.
My year has is off to a shocking start.
What next?
Thinking Bartel to Swan but leaves me only around $100k so not enough to upgrade Wallis to a good reliable mid at $452k approx. No longer convinced on The Bont after his injury and Dochertys failure
Was thinking either just bringing in Swan and waiting (Leave Wallis on Bench). Wait a week for Krakourer. Then downgrade a rookie to get a gun premo mid.
Roughead is another option for straight swap with Bartel but I reckon scores will be up and down.
Any thoughts?

Hey Slammer,
it's been a pretty tough start for some us, that's for sure!
I think Swan for Bartel is the right move.
Roughead is very consistently in the 96 - 103 area, and for the first time in years, he has actually achieved a higher price during the season than his opening price! Given we really expect him to be 100 at best, and he's only played 22 games 3 times in his career, we can probably reasonably expect him to play 17 games at around 96 from here.
You can either wait a week for Wallis to Krakouer, or if you think there is doubts on Krakouer, or you might need both trades elsewhere next week, then take Wallis down to one of Sinclair or Gregson this week. Even though you missed the first price rise, they both have a -47 B/E, and appear to have decent JS.
I hope your luck turns around.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I am another who needs to replace Bartel...

I am not enamoured by any of the 'mainstream' forwards like Buddy, Roughy, Bont or the key forwards in Pav, Tex, Kennedy...

I wanted to hear your thoughts on Dahlhaus and Devon Smith, Smith in particular I had in my team for most of the preseason, he has gone 63, 70, 91 over the past 3 seasons and is currently averaging 100...do you think this is something he can maintain as GWS start to win more games?

Thanks in advance

Hi TE, I like your thinking.
I would definitely pick Dahlhaus over Smith. Smith's average last year was boosted by some good Midtime when the various Mids were missing, and while none of them have been missing this year, I think it will be harder for him to maintain this sort of scoring than Dahlhaus. Smith is much more likely to revert to the lower scoring small Fwd role than Dahlhaus.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I've asked this and got a response opposing this from others but its still lingering in my mind. I'd love you to belt it out of my head.

I'm tempted with a Bartel to J.Martin, and a Gibbo/Newnes trade to T.Hunt

My team has struggled and struggling to get to 2000 each week. It really hasn't helped with my team starting off with Ablett and Rockliff, and now has a Bartel issue too! Newnes, Harry Taylor and Gibson have been struggling also. Every week there seems to be a new issue. I have however stayed true to my composure theory and only traded out when needed, so I've only used 2 (with Rocky coming back this week, seems I shouldn't of traded him).

Would you think a Bartel to J.Martin trade is a bad option? I also am thinking about Bont as well, but I like having a bit of money and waiting for my rookies to grow and then try to bring fallen premiums in like Danger in a few weeks time.
The other trade that has been opposed to is one of my premium defenders (H.T, Newnes or Gibbo) down to T.Hunt to make money and to use him as a stepping stone.

Trading down two premiums for mid pricers is risky, but I feel like my team is struggling and is in need of a creative move to make funds and injecting talent in. I know the Hunt move may be stupid, but I'm just thinking that either Gibbo (really struggling to score being KPP) and Newnes (DE is shocking and decision making needs a lot of work) are two players that may not be keepers in the end.

My other option is Bartel to J.Martin and Anderson to Bont, but that leaves me with only 130k left for future spending.

Hi Rowsus

I did ask a question the previous page, but I was wondering if I could post a more general one.

At what point of he season, would you panic and start trading a lot more if you have had a bad start? I've had injury worries and I've only traded them out, and I believe I'm committed to allowing my rookies to grow, especially at the start of this year, but at what point should I start really looking into boosting them? I'm at 1-1 in my money league, and I really want to win it. I don't think I'll win my next game, and so i'll most likely drop out of the 8, and what point do I bite the bullet and change things around because if I'm struggling at the 5-6 game mark with only 1 win, obviously my starting team was no good.

Hi wT2k,
firstly on Rocky. I do believe even if comes back this week it was the right move to trade him out. The prognosis was longer, and I doubt that wearing a rib guard will protect him enough to say he will be the Rocky of old. IF he comes back this week, I would be expecting very un-Rocky type scores, and an opportunity to pick him up much cheaper again down the track. I wouldn't sweat that decision.
For the most part, the time to speculate on MidPricers is in your initial team. Once the season starts you should avoid them, as they quite often lead to chain trading. You know, where one regrettable trade leads to another. Stick to the basics when a problem strikes. If the problem is to a Keeper or a MidPricer, then your options are: go to a Keeper, Cash them out to a Rookie, preferably on the bubble. If you start trying to land on those tricky $300k players now, it usually ends in regrets. If you believe Hunt or JMart can be Keepers, then by all means bring one in, but otherwise, save a trade, or use it better.
If League is your focus, you probably know patience is the key. Trades at the end of the season are pure gold for League players. The key is, you don't panic. Fix problems when they appear, save trades where you can, and trade smart. The first goal is to make the finals, the second goal is a top 4 finish. Usually by 4 games into your League season you know who the good teams are. That means you also know who the teams you should be beating most weeks, because they are expected to finish down the ladder are, too. If your head to head looks close against a team you should beat, then trading is a good idea. If you look outmatched against one of the top teams, and there are no pressing trades, then keep your powder dry for another week.
Dropping out of the 8 now means nothing, staying in touch with 8 early and keeping trades is much better than burning trades on regrettable choices to stay 7th or 8th. I'd rather be sitting 10th now, with more trades, than 7th with trades I probably knew I shouldn't have made.
You still need to build a complete team, and that is way more important than losing a match or two now. Taking a MidPricer quickfix, to grab extra points over the smart trade will lead to more losses later. Stay the course, build your complete team, and follow the Up or Down rule. Problems are either fixed by going to a genuine Keeper, or are cashed out to the best money making option available. Only take the Hunts/JMarts and even Bonts if you are convinced they will be Keepers in your team. It's hard enough to build a winning team as it is, without committing yourself to unnecessary temporary solutions.

 

[Prochard]

Hi rowsus, out of all of the available SuperCoach bets on Sportsbet, which offer do you like the most?

I think swan over 115.5 and Christensen under 90.6 especially with Rockliff bargains are decent odds

 

[darkshines]

Bugger - apologies for posting on wrong thread. Understandably this is Rowsus advice thread only. My bad

 

[Benno]

What are your thoughts on using 2 trades to go Mumford to Goldstien? is it worth it? I'm an annoying $700 short :/

It was something I'd thought of earlier but then dismissed, but after giving it some more thought, reading your comments as well as others re Mumford, as well as THCLT's comment (quoted below) being along the lines of what I was thinking of doing, I'm now warming to the idea again. Mumford > Goldstien seems like a no brainer, but if it requires a second trade I'm not 100% sure if it's worth it and if it makes the trade lose its value. Keeping Mummy could be a ballsy POD move, but I'm worried of the big cash loss and likely point leakage. Any help would be great

Actually, now that McGrath is out, Mumford > Goldy and McGrath > Krak looks like it might be a decent option

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi wT2k,
firstly on Rocky. I do believe even if comes back this week it was the right move to trade him out. The prognosis was longer, and I doubt that wearing a rib guard will protect him enough to say he will be the Rocky of old. IF he comes back this week, I would be expecting very un-Rocky type scores, and an opportunity to pick him up much cheaper again down the track. I wouldn't sweat that decision.
For the most part, the time to speculate on MidPricers is in your initial team. Once the season starts you should avoid them, as they quite often lead to chain trading. You know, where one regrettable trade leads to another. Stick to the basics when a problem strikes. If the problem is to a Keeper or a MidPricer, then your options are: go to a Keeper, Cash them out to a Rookie, preferably on the bubble. If you start trying to land on those tricky $300k players now, it usually ends in regrets. If you believe Hunt or JMart can be Keepers, then by all means bring one in, but otherwise, save a trade, or use it better.
If League is your focus, you probably know patience is the key. Trades at the end of the season are pure gold for League players. The key is, you don't panic. Fix problems when they appear, save trades where you can, and trade smart. The first goal is to make the finals, the second goal is a top 4 finish. Usually by 4 games into your League season you know who the good teams are. That means you also know who the teams you should be beating most weeks, because they are expected to finish down the ladder are, too. If your head to head looks close against a team you should beat, then trading is a good idea. If you look outmatched against one of the top teams, and there are no pressing trades, then keep your powder dry for another week.
Dropping out of the 8 now means nothing, staying in touch with 8 early and keeping trades is much better than burning trades on regrettable choices to stay 7th or 8th. I'd rather be sitting 10th now, with more trades, than 7th with trades I probably knew I shouldn't have made.
You still need to build a complete team, and that is way more important than losing a match or two now. Taking a MidPricer quickfix, to grab extra points over the smart trade will lead to more losses later. Stay the course, build your complete team, and follow the Up or Down rule. Problems are either fixed by going to a genuine Keeper, or are cashed out to the best money making option available. Only take the Hunts/JMarts and even Bonts if you are convinced they will be Keepers in your team. It's hard enough to build a winning team as it is, without committing yourself to unnecessary temporary solutions.

Seriously Rowsus mate... Legend! Eased my concerns straight away. Bloody love your work. Oh yeah... Thank you!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for the bluntness Rowsus, in all honesty, I needed it.

I think, no, I know, that I get too bored with this game/hobby in terms of the forecasting side of things.....
I've read you talk about similar symptoms on this thread before, and I'd say given your statistical background, there'd be more than a few stories of you wanting to take a punt purely for the sake of being that guy who zigs when everyone else zags.

That's it, I'm just going to proceed through this season, for the first time in many years, to trade in the most economic and resourceful manner possible. No more of this guy who actually considers culling a cow (and a trade) to bring in Monfries just because it's an untested strategy.

Thanks for the wake-up call mate!

P.S. Please share on if you have/do get the urge just to throw caution to wind even though you intuitively know it's improbable to pay dividends down the line. Or maybe it's just me lol.

Happy to help MP.
What are you are describing there is partially impatience, and I have that in bucket-loads! The want to speculate, and find an "instant" reward is built in to me, and one of the reasons I will never be super successful at SC. The need to "fiddle" with your team also leads to poor decisions, and convincing yourself it looks good like that. For every successful speculation, there is usually an accompanying failure, and therein lies the problem. Speculative picks and MidPriced strategies need a better than 50% strike rate to break even. I would think 65% breaks even, and 75% puts you in front of the safe players. It's just so hard to get 3 out of 4 right!
I know I will succumb to speculation this season, and in some terms I already have by brining in Neale for Rocky. Ok, right now that is in the win column, but we measure the success over a season, not a few rounds. I will also speculate on Young if he plays ok again this week. I really liked him pre-season, and there's nothing worse for us "speculation addicts" than picking a cheap success story, but not actually getting them into your team! In short, I guess I am hypocritical, and I am preaching that people should follow a better set of trading rules and practices, than I follow myself!

 

[stephen]

Bartel and Wines to A. Young and Selwood, raising money for an early cash cow upgrade to JPK next week. Crazy or nay crazy?

 

[JMAC]

600k to spend with trading Bartel out, and can swing DPPs around to get a player on any line.

Who should I be getting in? The players I'm looking at are all likely to get even cheaper next week, too... Is there any merit in holding Bartel for the week? Or should I jump on the Bont and pocket some cash for next upgrade?

 

[Rowsus]

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2015-04-20/injury-update-round-3

Is it possible to hold Ollie, Rowsus? I'll only be trading back in in 5 weeks, and have Bartel to deal with as well.

26 trades left atm but cash in the bank, Sinclair, Cripps and Krak as mid cover.

Thanks in advance Rowsus - just to let you know my team link is working now.

If you are set on trading him back in, nearly as soon as he is back, then yes, holding him is a viable option. Using him to loophole your cover means it will probably cost on average around 30-40 points while he is out, but it saves you a trade, so it's about a line ball, so why not?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, what's your thought on maybe bringing in Brad Ebert?
Looks like a nice POD and Port have a really juicy fixture coming out. Also with Wines out, makes me want to get him that much more!

I don't like him. He's played 150 games, and is in his 8th season, which means outside of a potential spike season, his ESP (Expected Scoring Pattern) is pretty much set. He will probably end the season somewhere in the 97 - 105 area, and given he's already on 114, it sounds like a wasted trade to me. It's really tough to try and pick a spike season this early in a 8+ year player, and generally not worth the risk.

 

[Rowsus]

Howdy mate,

I'm in the started with Rocky, Ablett, Bartel group of unhappy Supercoaches.
I also have underperforming PODs in Geary, Haynes and Macrae.
An obvious trade this week would be Bartel to Swan, but both Haynes and Macrae are dropping in price.
Would it be ludicrous to nip these mistakes in the bud now and offload Haynes and Macrae who are going down in price for say Hodge and Swan who are rising and get rid of Bartel next week (this week he is a good loophole option up forward).
I could also get cute and fiddle with my rucks (Blicavs, Ryder and Belly), belly could go for premium Goldy?
Or should I jut be going Swan in for Bartel.
I have $761,400 in the war chest after previously trading out premium injuries.
My team link is working

No hurry mate, as always I appreciate your time in answering my questions.

Cheers

Hey Juzzo,it's frustrating, isn't it? Burnt trades, and lost points, but at least it hasn't cost us money!
Let's look at your problems, and see what your priorities should be.
Macrae - $501k, B/E 142. He's averaging close to 25 disposals/game, and his DE is 69%. I would think he is probably playing better than his 78/game average would suggest. While that is still worrying, I wouldn't think it is a priority to fix, as if he keeps those numbers up, his SC score will probably rise enough to maintain his price from falling too much in the future.
Haynes - $369k, B/E 92. He's likely to leak dollars (and points) slowly until he hits about $330k. That's only $40k lower than he is now, but he's a regretable choice that needs fixing. Either up to a genuine Keeper, or down to the best money making option.
Geary - $350k, B/E 83. He's just as likely to make dollars this week. Needs fixing eventually, and sooner rather than later, but not a priority fix.
Bartel - $549k, B/E 231. 6 - 8 weeks out, but his price isn't going anywhere. Geelong are playing game 8 this week, and you have lots of cash. As you said, you could do worse than hold Jimmy this week, and use him to loophole Saad/Hogan/Salem in your Fwd line.
Cash is king, and gives you versatility in your approach.
I guess it comes down to how keen you are to have both Hodge and Swan in your final team. I'm guessing you are aware of the downside associated with Hodge. If you want him, that's ok, as I must admit, it is hard to identify who the likely D3 to D6's will be this season. If you are not 100% sold on Hodge, you could also look at turning Anderson into Selwood. Even though his B/E is 58 higher than Hodges, he might potentially bridge that gap! I would still suggest Hodge over Selwood, if you are convinced you want him in your team for the rest of the season, missed games and red vests and all. You get the bonus of Hodge being as cheap as he's going to be in the next few weeks, and avoiding Haynes dropping another $10-$15k. If you're not 100% sure, ask yourself, would you still want Hodge this week, if he scored a 90 instead of his 177? If the answer is yes, then full-steam ahead, if the honest answer is you're not sure, I'd grab Selwood, and wait for a bit more info on the Defs.