Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus · 21 Apr 2015

Hi Brookesy, I'm glad your getting full value from the site!

I think I like your first option best. It brings in what hopefully should be 2 Keepers, where as the other one involves punting on a 1 game Rookie before their bubble. That's always risky, and it's hard to pick the right one sometimes. Hibberds scores haven't been matching his stats, and also, he has been scoring well enough early, but not late in games. Is this because he's really only just getting match fit now, after Essendon's less than ideal pre-season? I don't know, but it's possible. I'm tipping him to do a bit better in the near future.

Rowsus · 21 Apr 2015

Manikato1 said:

Hi Man,
I'm guessing the news of Lambs demise might have you re-thinking those plans? Though I guess it only leaves you with no cover for 1 week.
I don't mind the Heppell option, as I had him in my team for a couple of months of the pre-season. I think he's a chance to go up a level this season. Having said that, don't take him just to be different, if you think Sloane is a better pick. I understand what you are saying, but if you believe Sloane is better, then it's better just to get him. Off the top of my head Sloane's figures went from 7% ownership in Round 2, to 14% in Round 3, so not as many teams have as you might think! And even if he was in 50% of teams (I just checked 13.5%!), and you thought he was the best option, it's still better to go to him, as otherwise you are conceding what you see as an on going advantage to these other teams. If you think there isn't that much between Sloane and Heppell, then by all means go the one more POD-ish (Heppell 6%). It looks like you either have to hold Wines this week, or run a week without Fwd cover. It's risky, but do-able.
Swallow is starting to have the appearance of an M8 trap, but I am going to stick with him for now. His B/E of 94 is easily reachable, and his K:H so far this season is woeful! It's currently around 1:1.6, So hopefully he can fix that. He doesn't look like leaking too much Cash in the short term, so he's not a priority fix right now, which is exactly what makes him a potential M8 trap!

Rowsus · 21 Apr 2015

Benno said:

It's really annoying when things like this happen, and it feels like it forces you into a corner. The best way to look at it is, that fixing this problem isn't worth 2 trades, so you need to isolate the 2nd trade. Is this a trade that stands up as a good trade by itself? Would you still make this trade, if you didn't need to facilitate the 1st trade? If either answer is no, then don't do it. Look at it from the other angle, if the game wanted to charge you 2 trades to go from Mummy to Goldy, would you do it? No, you wouldn't. So the thing is, don't force another trade you really don't like, to make it happen.

Manikato1 · 21 Apr 2015

Hi Man,
I'm guessing the news of Lambs demise might have you re-thinking those plans? Though I guess it only leaves you with no cover for 1 week.
I don't mind the Heppell option, as I had him in my team for a couple of months of the pre-season. I think he's a chance to go up a level this season. Having said that, don't take him just to be different, if you think Sloane is a better pick. I understand what you are saying, but if you believe Sloane is better, then it's better just to get him. Off the top of my head Sloane's figures went from 7% ownership in Round 2, to 14% in Round 3, so not as many teams have as you might think! And even if he was in 50% of teams (I just checked 13.5%!), and you thought he was the best option, it's still better to go to him, as otherwise you are conceding what you see as an on going advantage to these other teams. If you think there isn't that much between Sloane and Heppell, then by all means go the one more POD-ish (Heppell 6%). It looks like you either have to hold Wines this week, or run a week without Fwd cover. It's risky, but do-able.
Swallow is starting to have the appearance of an M8 trap, but I am going to stick with him for now. His B/E of 94 is easily reachable, and his K:H so far this season is woeful! It's currently around 1:1.6, So hopefully he can fix that. He doesn't look like leaking too much Cash in the short term, so he's not a priority fix right now, which is exactly what makes him a potential M8 trap!

Hi Rowsus

Thanks for the feedback. For the record this week will be the third week out of four that I eat a doughnut in the forward line. I'm starting to get fat eating them. The list of outs reads like this, Lids suspended then inj, Lambert inj, Bartel concussion and now inj, Bonts inj, Lamb inj and now McGrath inj. I have it over Krispy Cremes in spades when it comes to doughnuts LOL.

Rowsus · 22 Apr 2015

Zoku Pops said:

I sort of got the feeling that not as many people as I hoped got the full idea or use from them, so in that regard, they don't warrant the time spent on them. Sorry.

As to TBC to JMart, I would only consider that trade if you thought JMart becomes a Keeper. While it's nice that he has a negative B/E, you shouldn't be taking him as a Stepping Stone. His price is too high to warrant that as a good move. He potentially is a Keeper, when you consider he was widely tipped to be better than O'Meara, in O'Meara's first season, so we are looking at 90+ right there. If you have a strong opinion, and a belief he can do it, then why not? I wouldn't do it as a speculative trade though.

Zoku Pops · 22 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Bugger. For mine they were by far the most interesting read of the week but completely understand, the work that you put into them (and this thread) is ridiculous (in a very good way!)

Fair point on Jack Martin. I really like him and do believe he can average 90. Last year it would have been a no brainer for me in the forward line but this year there are unfortunately better options so I might have to pass.

It's strange, but after initially hating it, I like the fact the backline is what it is this year (and you could say the same about the forwards last year). There are so many players that will average very similar numbers without many clear standouts that you can take more of a punt on a pick or two as if they back fire, it won't cost you that much. Also creates more interesting coaching and differences in teams as there would be far larger descrepencies in peoples lists of the top 10 defenders of 2015 compared to the top 10 forwards (of which we would all agree on most).

Anyway, that's enough of my completely irrelevant ramblings!

Rowsus · 22 Apr 2015

Bobbie said:

Happy to help Bobbie.
Grundy and Blicavs are two completely different kettles of fish.
Grundy is averaging 31 Hitouts, 16 Disposals, 11 CP's and 2 Marks
Blicavs is averaging 8 Hitouts, 18 Disposals, 10 CP's and 4 Marks
Most of Blicavs marks are intercept marks, from playing a kick behind play. He's a real Mr. Fixit, spending time just about everywhere at some stage of the game. I think Blicavs 124 might have got a boost, as he kicked the match sealing goal. I wasn't watching live scores, but he might have even gotten 20-25 points for it.
There's no particular reason to not get Birchall, it's more that Simpson has been Mr Consistent game count and score-wise for a number of years. They can all pull a shocker now and then, I reckon that's part of playing in the backline. The average is the more important thing.

Rowsus · 22 Apr 2015

Jurn Stern said:

Hi JS,
while there certainly is a "neatness" to having 2 Rucks playing across each of the bye Rounds, I wouldn't base any selections or trades on it.
Their prices are nearly the same, so no difference there, though Sauce has a B/E of 137, so can reasonably be expected to drop further in price. Goldy is facing a B/E of 83, so should move even further in front as the most expensive Ruck this week. We are working on small sample sizes with our new Ruck scoring info, but it is interesting that Sauce managed 55 hitouts on the weekend, to score a paltry 67 SC points. Looking at his games where he had 40+ Hitouts bewtween 2012 and 2014, but scored poorly, his 5 worst results are: Hitouts(SC score) - 44(82), 50(95), 43(101), 40(104), 47(110) - this is from 12 40+ Hitout games, so his 55(67) looks really "frightening". Does it mean that Sauce's game isn't as well suited to the new scoring as Goldy's? Possibly, but the data pool is too small to be conclusive, but it does make you think.

Slammer · 22 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Thanks Rowsus
I guess my options then could be Dahlhaus, Bont or Swan
Bont obviously the cheaper option at higher risk whilst Swan and Dahlhaus are more proven.
Haven't seen Swan play but do you think he is back to his best?
Do you think Dahlhaus or the Bont will be affected by Wallis?

Rowsus · 22 Apr 2015

lappinitup said:

Given the fortunes of WC's tall players this season, I don't think Lycett will be dropped in the next week or two. Funnily enough, I made the same Lycett over Swan decision. Regrettable right now, but there's a long way to go yet. And yes, we miss Swans good score, but we can still get him. If Leuey doesn't play, I would keep Lycett, and avoid the donut. Lycett's 48, while very sour in the mouth, has to be put into context. On the limited 3 Rounds data we have so far, Freo are far and away the toughest team for Ruck listed players to score against.

Players listed as Ruck/Ruck-Fwd/Ruck-Mid against Freo this season: 5 - SC Points scored 324 - Ave 64.8
These same players, when playing other teams have played 9 games - SC Points scored 791 - Ave 87.9

That means they are scoring 26% lower against Freo, than they are against all other opposition. The next hardest team for Rucks to score against is Nth, and they are sitting at 19%. The easiest 2 teams are Collingwood (+32%) and GC (+29%). If you remove Dawson Simpsons subbed 49 point game from Freo's numbers it becomes: 4 players - 275 points scored - Ave 68.8. Against other opposition: 8 games - 753 points scored - Ave 94.1 for 27% lower against Freo than other opposition. As I said, a small sample pool right now, but it makes Lycett's 48 slightly more forgivable. This week he plays Bris, who are currently running at +5%.
Maybe it is takng a too complicated approach to it all, and it is better to go with your "feel", especially as it is a small sample pool. I just think Lycett won't be as bad going on into the season, as he was last week.

aleceee · 22 Apr 2015

Hi Rowsus,

I was wondering if you could take a quick look at my team and see if there are any major issues that I need to fix. With McGrath, I think I'm going to keep him as a FD. Thanks

http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/other_teams/?tid=66251

Bobbie · 22 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

I'm pretty sure Blicavs did get a score boost like you said. I think Grundy presents as the better option for McEvoy. I have also decided to get Smith over Simpson for KK. I will still have ~$140K left and 27 trades so not too bad! My team should be okay for a while until the rookies start to fatten up (barring any injuries of course!).

Thanks again - your time and advice is always appreciated.

THCLT · 22 Apr 2015

G'day Rowsus,

Hope that you and the family are well, less than 3 months 'til your Australian visit and looking forward to meeting you and the rest of the SCS crew for some light banter. Winter is upon us here in Melbourne so be sure to bring some warm clothes.

Back to my SC team. Due to being preoccupied with LTI's trading over the first 3 rounds (will be 4 in total come round 4), my team haven't had the opportunity to get out of first gear since the start of the season. I'm happy enough with my team structure and have the necessary cash cows for future upgrades so that's a plus.

My first trade for this round is clear and simple: Bartel>forward premium

I've been playing around with different combinations with my second trade to see what will benefit my team the most going forward. The two players in the gun for that second trade is either Mumford or Lycett, slight change of tactic here I know as I'm removing my ruck cover but I'm OK with that and will most likely use another trade for the Ruck and I'll deal with that when it comes.

My dilemma is which one to trade out or which strategy is better in the long run?

Mumford OUT means I can grab 2 MID premiums over the next 3 weeks.
Lycett OUT means I can only grab 1 MID premium over the next 3 weeks.

The price difference between Mumford and Lycett is approx. 170K. Let's says Mumford scores 95 and Lycett scores 75 over the next 3 rounds, would the 170K gain from Mumford to get an extra MID premium in 3 weeks time outweigh the potential 60 points loss?

I'm favouring the Mumford OUT option as this gives me a substantial bankroll to really aggressively upgrade into MID premiums over the next 3 rounds. Barring any further LTI's, this will give my team the following structure going into round 7 with 8 trades used.

DEF: 4-0-4
MID: 6-0-5
RUC: 1-1(Lycett)-1
FWD: 4-0-4

lappinitup · 22 Apr 2015

haha before I even read your reply. I have hit the reverse trades button and got Lycett back in.

Bartel to Swan will cover the Swan loss for me. As I wrote last week in the Bont thread, there are soo many reasons not to jump on him.

Will wait and see how selection goes, I love the optimism with Lycett and the detailed research to try and support it. Unfortunately, he just doesn't seem as confident or aggressive in his play as he did at times last year!

dyii · 22 Apr 2015

Hi Rowsus,

What are your thoughts on Motlop as a replacement for Bartel? [rather than Swan]

Brookesy · 22 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Hi Brookesy, I'm glad your getting full value from the site!

I think I like your first option best. It brings in what hopefully should be 2 Keepers, where as the other one involves punting on a 1 game Rookie before their bubble. That's always risky, and it's hard to pick the right one sometimes. Hibberds scores haven't been matching his stats, and also, he has been scoring well enough early, but not late in games. Is this because he's really only just getting match fit now, after Essendon's less than ideal pre-season? I don't know, but it's possible. I'm tipping him to do a bit better in the near future.

Thanks Rowsus, I really appreciate your taking the time to offer some insight.

Adrenaline · 22 Apr 2015

Hi rowsus

I was wondering if you can provide some advice. My current team is..
Ox saad Macintosh heater hibberd newes lumumba Goodes
Fyfe sloane selwood pendles griffen heeney lambert vanderberg ellis-yolman and Cripps
Goldie nicnat
Grey swan Martin Salem hogan lamb Clark Lonie
I am looking at some teams and they seem to have a 4 premium structure which includes the bont.
My aim is to win the league and I have read in your thread you need to have patience.
I agree you need to keep your trades however I do believe you need to keep up with the pack and not leave your run too late. In saying that I am 2-0 which is good. I was wondering if I should downgrade Goodes to a cheap defender kelly or Andrews and upgrade Clarke to the Bont. The only problem with this approach is I'm missing out on Clarke making 50k or more. I am not sure how to approach the situation or if I should forget the Bont
Thanks rowsus

Alex_26 · 22 Apr 2015

Hey Rowsus,

What's your thoughts on Brodie Grundy? Is his numbers sustainable? I'm looking at bringing a ruckmen in for Bartel and moving Bellchambers forward. I know that the rucks so far this year have been inconsistent but i have always planned to move Bell forward for ruck coverage even though he's scoring poorly. It's out of Grundy or Nic Nat but leaning towards Grundy because of extra cash. Thanks in advance.

Juzzo · 22 Apr 2015

Rowsus said:

Hey Juzzo,it's frustrating, isn't it? Burnt trades, and lost points, but at least it hasn't cost us money!
Let's look at your problems, and see what your priorities should be.
Macrae - $501k, B/E 142. He's averaging close to 25 disposals/game, and his DE is 69%. I would think he is probably playing better than his 78/game average would suggest. While that is still worrying, I wouldn't think it is a priority to fix, as if he keeps those numbers up, his SC score will probably rise enough to maintain his price from falling too much in the future.
Haynes - $369k, B/E 92. He's likely to leak dollars (and points) slowly until he hits about $330k. That's only $40k lower than he is now, but he's a regretable choice that needs fixing. Either up to a genuine Keeper, or down to the best money making option.
Geary - $350k, B/E 83. He's just as likely to make dollars this week. Needs fixing eventually, and sooner rather than later, but not a priority fix.
Bartel - $549k, B/E 231. 6 - 8 weeks out, but his price isn't going anywhere. Geelong are playing game 8 this week, and you have lots of cash. As you said, you could do worse than hold Jimmy this week, and use him to loophole Saad/Hogan/Salem in your Fwd line.
Cash is king, and gives you versatility in your approach.
I guess it comes down to how keen you are to have both Hodge and Swan in your final team. I'm guessing you are aware of the downside associated with Hodge. If you want him, that's ok, as I must admit, it is hard to identify who the likely D3 to D6's will be this season. If you are not 100% sold on Hodge, you could also look at turning Anderson into Selwood. Even though his B/E is 58 higher than Hodges, he might potentially bridge that gap! I would still suggest Hodge over Selwood, if you are convinced you want him in your team for the rest of the season, missed games and red vests and all. You get the bonus of Hodge being as cheap as he's going to be in the next few weeks, and avoiding Haynes dropping another $10-$15k. If you're not 100% sure, ask yourself, would you still want Hodge this week, if he scored a 90 instead of his 177? If the answer is yes, then full-steam ahead, if the honest answer is you're not sure, I'd grab Selwood, and wait for a bit more info on the Defs.

Thanks mate, catch you next week, hopefully no more LTIs this week.

SC FANATIC · 22 Apr 2015

Hey Rowsus, hope you are well.

Excellent job selecting Lachie Neale and Rory Sloane. I know you have probably already stated this but what was your reasons behind selecting them?

I have Chris Yarran and am not sure what to do

What do you think about Taylor Hunt? Is he worth getting or have we missed the boat on him? Do you you think he can average 90-100?

What do you think Jeremy McGovern will average this year?

Or should i trade him down which would allow me to start Oxley on the field.

Thanks

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Manikato1

Rowsus

Statistician

Zoku Pops

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Slammer

Rowsus

Statistician

aleceee

Bobbie

Best and Fairest

THCLT

BBL|05 Winner

lappinitup

2006 AFL SuperCoach Winner

dyii

Brookesy

Adrenaline

Alex_26

Juzzo

SC FANATIC

Rising Star Winner