Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[The Last Samurai]

Hi TLS, thanks for the kind words.
Hannebery - priced at 117
Beams - priced at 116
Parker - priced at 112
Lewis - priced at 109
Heppell - priced at 109
Rockliff - priced at 94
Deledio - priced at 108
Harvey - priced at 102
The only player on your wish list, that you can be confident that he'll outscore his buy in price, is Rocky, and he's probably got the biggest upside/ceiling. I think you should get him in this week.
It seems you might have already overpaid for one or two Prems, and that being the case, I'd take the one you think is best value. From that list above, that might be Heppell. He might not be the highest scorer on that list, but he might be the best value.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Hi Rowsus,

Thanks very much for your detailed response.

Quite ironic that you mention Heppell, as I've had my eye on him for some weeks.

The way you've phrased it, there's no way I can go past Rockliff. And in terms of value, Heppell and Lewis look like the best options for my second trade.

Many thanks and all the best this round!

 

[minidee]

G'day Dee,
I'm guessing not many that hold Lonie this week, will keep him past his Rnd 12 bye. So let's look at what he needs to do make some more Cash between now and then.
In round figures, he needs to score at 65 between now and his bye, to return to his current price when he has the bye.
He only has 2 scores better than that 65, and realistically, it looks like he is a 60-62 player.
If he scores at 62 before his bye, he loses $6k from here.
If you are able to hold him beyond the bye (?!) he is heading to a peak at around just over $300k, and will be within $5k of that mark by Rnd 17.
Some will say it's not worth downgrading Lonie, as you make too little. They will ride out his slow burn until they can upgrade him, or just bury him at F7/8.
If you have no thoughts of carrying him beyond Rnd 12, it's probably best to ditch him now. The obvious question is, to who?
Waiting a week might cost you $20k, but make the decision that much easier. Otherwise, maybe roll the dice on Lambert, though his scheduled return might not help your bye numbers! (Though he might be back in Rnd 12, and be perfect for them too!)

Thanks again Rowsus. I take it in your response by not mentioning Amon that you don't rate him as a reasonable option?

 

[Aneil915]

Hi TLS, thanks for the kind words.
Hannebery - priced at 117
Beams - priced at 116
Parker - priced at 112
Lewis - priced at 109
Heppell - priced at 109
Rockliff - priced at 94
Deledio - priced at 108
Harvey - priced at 102
The only player on your wish list, that you can be confident that he'll outscore his buy in price, is Rocky, and he's probably got the biggest upside/ceiling. I think you should get him in this week.
It seems you might have already overpaid for one or two Prems, and that being the case, I'd take the one you think is best value. From that list above, that might be Heppell. He might not be the highest scorer on that list, but he might be the best value.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Love you work mate, How do you work out the priced at score?

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus. Just after some advice on how to trade going into byes. Do we keep upgrading in the coming rounds, or is it best to start building the bank balance with a view on upgrading throughout the byes?

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks again Rowsus. I take it in your response by not mentioning Amon that you don't rate him as a reasonable option?

Happy to help Dee,
I'm happy to look at Amon again, after this week. If he gets subbed again (red or green), he won't grow much at all, if he scores say a 75, his price goes up about $22k, but at least we know more about him. Bubble Rookies with B/E's of +25 don't thrill me much. While we may not need to milk him, it's possible we will, but even if we don't get to milk him, it's preferable if it looks like he can get a game. The jury is out, but he could turn out to be dead wood, and I don't want any dead wood, particularly before the byes!

 

[Rowsus]

Love you work mate, How do you work out the priced at score?

Thanks Aneil915,
it's just their current price divided by the current MN.
It gives an indicator of what they have to average from here to maintain that price, and can be useful to show if we are paying too much for them.

 

[freowho]

Happy to help Dee,
I'm happy to look at Amon again, after this week. If he gets subbed again (red or green), he won't grow much at all, if he scores say a 75, his price goes up about $22k, but at least we know more about him. Bubble Rookies with B/E's of +25 don't thrill me much. While we may not need to milk him, it's possible we will, but even if we don't get to milk him, it's preferable if it looks like he can get a game. The jury is out, but he could turn out to be dead wood, and I don't want any dead wood, particularly before the byes!

This post is good timing for me Rowsus. I'm worried about there not being enough cash cows and was going to start Amon this week but he and Dumont could still be viable next week given their high breakevens so I have done 2 upgrades this week instead.

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Rowsus,
Roughead? (not you, the SC one)
Keith

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus. Just after some advice on how to trade going into byes. Do we keep upgrading in the coming rounds, or is it best to start building the bank balance with a view on upgrading throughout the byes?

Hey Bobbie,
a lot depends on your focus.
If you are trying to win the $50k, then yes, keep trading madly, or you will fall behind the teams that do keep upgrading. This obviously assumes you are willing take the risk of running out of trades, and coasting the last 5 or 6 Rounds. As we know, that philosophy has worked for 4 of the last 6 winners.
If you are just trying to improve your position, you might look at your Rnd 11 trading, and just try to get a bank for those busy Rnd 12 and 13 trades. Don't miss a good trade if it is there, a bargain Prem with a low B/E or a good bubble boy, but outside of that, save a trade or two, but set up the next 2 weeks trades. Having a decent bank ($300k or more sounds good) really makes a difference to your Rnds 12 ans 13 Trading. I know of some fairly successful Coaches, that coming into the byes, will look at sacrificing the worst performing Keeper to get a bank for the next 2 weeks. It gets rid of a problem player, and help make possibly that one more, or one better upgrade in the following 2 weeks.
If your focus is League glory, you need to save trades where you can, but still upgrade your team to remain competitve. If you can win Rnd 11 without trading, you could possibly just leave your cue in the rack.

One last word on timing. I read on here last week, or the week before, that someone was thought another member was crazy for planning to bring Rocky in in Rnd 10. His reasoning for the crazy call was, Rocky would only play one game, then face the bye. I don't agree with this logic at all! Any player you bring in now, or in Rnds 10 and 11 will have a bye to go through. I wouldn't let a one week gap to the bye stop making the best trade I can.
Certainly, once we are at Rnds 12 and 13, you should do all you can to avoid bringing in a player yet to face the bye, but I have also seen doing the opposite to this tactic work too. As long as you don't face a donut, if it is the best fit to bring in say, a Rnd 12 Prem in Rnd 12*, why not do it? There's no guarantee that the Rnd 11 alternative choice will be better, even though you have his score in one extra game!

*disclaimer - not many of us will be able to do that this year, given how packed our teams are with Rnd 12 bye players!

 

[Aneil915]

Thanks Aneil915,
it's just their current price divided by the current MN.
It gives an indicator of what they have to average from here to maintain that price, and can be useful to show if we are paying too much for them.

Thanks for your answer, how do I know what the current MN is?

 

[Imcjb]

Rowsus,

Im thinking of who to upgrade Lubumba to. Docherty, Simpson or McGovern. I have 100k in the bank with 22 trades. Time for him to go, your thoughts?

 

[Saintellica]

Hi Saint,
the first thing I'd do, if I was in your shoes, is a little dance!!!
Sitting top 1,000 with 23 trades left???!!!
Great job, Saint, well done!
I think I'd go Goodes to Adamson, to complete a FD M/D link, then go Lonie to Franklin, or Tarrant to whatever Mid you wanted.

Thanks Rowsus, very funny indeed !!!!

Will have a look at these options

Love your work!!!

 

[Seedsman]

Hey Rowsus,

I have two trade options - Tarrant ->Dale is locked in but unsure of whether to go Miller -> Hannebery (202k left over) or Goodes ->McDonald (120k left over)...which do you think is best? Cheers in advance!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Roughead? (not you, the SC one)
Keith

Hi Keith,
Roughie is Mr Consistent, average-wise, being between 96 and 104 every year for the last 4 years, and Mr Inconsistent score-wise, giving us 40's and 140's and anything in between.
He's priced at 101, and averaging 101.4 and is definitely a fair option, especially as he has GC and StK in the 2 weeks before his bye!
Skål
Rowan

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Keith,
Roughie is Mr Consistent, average-wise, being between 96 and 104 every year for the last 4 years, and Mr Inconsistent score-wise, giving us 40's and 140's and anything in between.
He's priced at 101, and averaging 101.4 and is definitely a fair option, especially as he has GC and StK in the 2 weeks before his bye!
Skål
Rowan

Perfect player for my team, most of 'em, if they turn up, do just that. Bit like the pokies.
Slainte,
Keith

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for your answer, how do I know what the current MN is?

As far as I know, it's not published anywhere, but you can calculate it for yourself.
It currently calculates out to around 5040, but I am using 4970 as it usually tends towards that figure, and as we are using it for a players worth, it's best to look ahead.

Assuming a player played all the games, you can calculate it by looking at a particular player and using:

MN for Rnd 8 =

Rnd 7 price x 3 / (Rnd 6 score + Rnd 7 score + (Rnd 8 score - Rnd 8 price change/440)

We can't calculate what the Rnd 9 MN is yet.
The number you come up with will be +/- 10 what the MN is, as there are a lot of rounded off figures in the equation. Prices to the nearest 100 etc.
Do 5 or 6 calculations, and take an average.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

Im thinking of who to upgrade Lubumba to. Docherty, Simpson or McGovern. I have 100k in the bank with 22 trades. Time for him to go, your thoughts?

Imcjb,
I think any othe 3 are good picks, and maybe your bye structure might help you decide.
I will say Simpson, Docherty, Mcg, but as I say, I think they're all worthwhile.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

I have two trade options - Tarrant ->Dale is locked in but unsure of whether to go Miller -> Hannebery (202k left over) or Goodes ->McDonald (120k left over)...which do you think is best? Cheers in advance!

Hey Seedsman,
of the two, I'd go Hannebery. I'm not convinced TMc can maintain the rage.

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Bobbie,
a lot depends on your focus.
If you are trying to win the $50k, then yes, keep trading madly, or you will fall behind the teams that do keep upgrading. This obviously assumes you are willing take the risk of running out of trades, and coasting the last 5 or 6 Rounds. As we know, that philosophy has worked for 4 of the last 6 winners.
If you are just trying to improve your position, you might look at your Rnd 11 trading, and just try to get a bank for those busy Rnd 12 and 13 trades. Don't miss a good trade if it is there, a bargain Prem with a low B/E or a good bubble boy, but outside of that, save a trade or two, but set up the next 2 weeks trades. Having a decent bank ($300k or more sounds good) really makes a difference to your Rnds 12 ans 13 Trading. I know of some fairly successful Coaches, that coming into the byes, will look at sacrificing the worst performing Keeper to get a bank for the next 2 weeks. It gets rid of a problem player, and help make possibly that one more, or one better upgrade in the following 2 weeks.
If your focus is League glory, you need to save trades where you can, but still upgrade your team to remain competitve. If you can win Rnd 11 without trading, you could possibly just leave your cue in the rack.

One last word on timing. I read on here last week, or the week before, that someone was thought another member was crazy for planning to bring Rocky in in Rnd 10. His reasoning for the crazy call was, Rocky would only play one game, then face the bye. I don't agree with this logic at all! Any player you bring in now, or in Rnds 10 and 11 will have a bye to go through. I wouldn't let a one week gap to the bye stop making the best trade I can.
Certainly, once we are at Rnds 12 and 13, you should do all you can to avoid bringing in a player yet to face the bye, but I have also seen doing the opposite to this tactic work too. As long as you don't face a donut, if it is the best fit to bring in say, a Rnd 12 Prem in Rnd 12*, why not do it? There's no guarantee that the Rnd 11 alternative choice will be better, even though you have his score in one extra game!

*disclaimer - not many of us will be able to do that this year, given how packed our teams are with Rnd 12 bye players!

Thanks Rowsus. I'm not in any cash leagues so my focus is to improve my overall ranking as much as possible. With that in mind, I am really unsure what to do this week. I had planned on Lonie to Dale (not ideal but a necessity to get cash). My second trade was either going to be Tarrant to Buddy (unfortunately didn't go through with that one!) or a CEY upgrade (Lewis or someone of similar value like Danger?). I can't find any forwRd upgrades that sit well with me out of the remaining options for this round. Devon Smith is tempting but can he maintain the hot streak?

I am quite unsure of whether to do the second trade, and if I do where do I use it? Am I better to sit on rookies like CEY for now and look at an upgrade next week?

Sorry for all the questions!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus. I'm not in any cash leagues so my focus is to improve my overall ranking as much as possible. With that in mind, I am really unsure what to do this week. I had planned on Lonie to Dale (not ideal but a necessity to get cash). My second trade was either going to be Tarrant to Buddy (unfortunately didn't go through with that one!) or a CEY upgrade (Lewis or someone of similar value like Danger?). I can't find any forwRd upgrades that sit well with me out of the remaining options for this round. Devon Smith is tempting but can he maintain the hot streak?

I am quite unsure of whether to do the second trade, and if I do where do I use it? Am I better to sit on rookies like CEY for now and look at an upgrade next week?

Sorry for all the questions!

Hi Bobbie,
don't be sorry, ask as many questions as you want,
CEY has that inconvenient Rnd 11 bye, so chopping him a little early isn't too big of a crime.
I'm not too keen on D Smith, especially as he's priced at 100. Danger looks like he is priced correctly, or even a little underpriced (108). Danger's last score against Freo was 72, but his 3 before that were: 125, 187, 145 though the 2 big ones were in victoies, can they win this week? I'm not sure. The other option is to go CEY down to Amon, now that Lewis is a late out, and Amon has been announced as not starting sub. Amon is a Rnd 13 bye, plays Melbourne, and while his 2 scores have been low, his SC/100%TOG is an ok 92. So if he can string some 75-80% games together, he might be able to average a useful 70.