Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Mudflap]

Hey Rowsus, you have become the voice of reason for me so I will continue to run my bigger trades by you.

Interested in your thoughts on Matthew Boyd (as a trade in for Rocky)?

Would not have considered him at the start of the season due to his age and being in a bottom side but he has changed roles and the Bulldogs have a decent run coming up. He also suits my bye planning so if you don't think that he is worth a look is there anyone else with a round 11 bye and up to 550K that is worth a look? This trade I am hoping to end up my M6

 

[Juzzo]

Hey Rowsus, you have become the voice of reason for me so I will continue to run my bigger trades by you.

Interested in your thoughts on Matthew Boyd (as a trade in for Rocky)?

Would not have considered him at the start of the season due to his age and being in a bottom side but he has changed roles and the Bulldogs have a decent run coming up. He also suits my bye planning so if you don't think that he is worth a look is there anyone else with a round 11 bye and up to 550K that is worth a look? This trade I am hoping to end up my M6

I've just done that trade

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus. I have $359K in the kitty (17 trades) which is enough to facilitate two upgrades of Tarrant to Buddy and Ox to Hodge. A couple of questions if you don't mind:

1. Hodge? I know he'll miss some games but he is scoring very well and to be able to get that type of player in defence would be great. It makes my defence look significantly more solid too! (Other cheaper options are Gibson, Simpson or Murphy).

2. Dumont? Am I better to downgrade Miller to Dumont thus increasing my bank balance to $408K for some upgrades during the byes?

This would mean holding off on the Tarrant to Buddy trade until round 13? My only concern is the changeover price blowing out. But makes sense not to bring in another round 12 bye player.

3. Rocky? One other concern is losing Rocky to injury which leaves my midfield thin. So if he does miss, should I look at upgrading Miller instead to add another premo mid? I could possibly cover Rocky but switching Saad into mids for McKenzie which means Lever/McIntosh is on field.

Thanks as always.

Hey Bobbie,
I count you at 14.5 Keepers, with a question mark over Rocky. Is Rocky a Keeper? If so you have 15.5 with Grundy being the .5.
You have the cash to make two direct upgrades this week, which would sit you at 15.5/16.5.
The half done upgrades will cost about $130-$170k each. ie Saad, Oxley, Grundy, Cripps.
Let's say downgrading Miller, CEY and McIntosh get's those 4 upgraded.
That gets you to 19.5/20.5 Keepers using 7 trades.
And Rookies still to work with of:
Brown, Lever, McKenzie, Amon, Tarrant, Clarke and Dale.
We haven't taken into account your $359k in the bank.
This isn't presenting an order for trade out, but more to demonstrate, that you might have enough Cash and Cash Cows to complete your team. Obviously you can never have too much Cash, and it's good to be able to build in some good/better cover on the benches, I just think Dumont isn't a must get for you. The idea of having a good bank coming into the byes is a good one, but if you can make the upgrades that little bit earlier, isn't that better for your overall end of season position? As long as you feel comfortable that you are not too compromised, I'd take the upgrades this week. If you end up wearing a Rookie donut in Rnd 12, because selections didn't go your way that week, you just wear it, I think. You certainly won't be alone!
As to Rocky, it's a long time to carry him. Given it's a repeat injury from an early return, and Brisbane aren't really in finals contention, you'd think they'd try and get it right this time. I'd expect at least 3 missed games. Rnd 14 Brisbane play Freo in WA, then Rnd 15 Sydney at the Gabba. I'll guess a Rnd 15 return right now, as returning to play Freo away seems a bit risky.

 

[Johnsy44]

Hey Row thoughts on Wines and Ward please. Bringing one in this week

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row
Am most likely going Krak - Steele as he should get a game soon and he is fwd/mid
should i also trade Miller - Wines? or save a trade and money for the byes? have 17 trades before doing these
and what to do with rocky??
would love your help

Hey Johnsy,
I think it is a bit risky. It will give you potentially 3 known donuts to carry through the byes, on top of any other players that go missing. Yes, Steele and or Lambert could play during the byes, but it seems like you are comitting to the idea at least one of them will play!
While it is good to have money during the byes, that money is for upgrades, and if you can make an upgrade now, as long as it isn't compromising your bye structure, you may as well do it.
You might have read, that I am guessing Rocky comes back in Rnd 15, due to Brisbane playing Freo away in Rnd 14. It wouldn't totally surprise me if he came back early (again!), but if he does, the repeat is in danger of happening, again! I think it's too long to carry him.

Hey mate how you going?
With rocky out i think i will keep him and keep cripps to play because u can expect most likely 90+ most weeks.
am thinking maybe Miller - Dumont/Robinson/Boston or glenn if he's picked and maybe Tarrant - a prem under 541k maybe Buddy or Smith for a POD. Will prob depend on byes
This will mean i keep Krak and Clark but Krak's DPP will be really handy during the byes
What do you think?
I could bring in Wines but there is no FWD rookies. But feel the option above is better

I'm not sure I agree that Cripps is likely 90+ most weeks. A lot will depend on Judd/Murphy/Gibbs etc, and what the new match committee want to achieve with him. He will in all likelihood throw in a couple of disappointing scores along the way.

Hey Row thoughts on Wines and Ward please. Bringing one in this week

I'd prefer Wines. It seems that GWS' Midfield depth is having an adverse reaction on Ward's SC.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Thanks for your reply to my questions a few pages back Rowsus - super work in this thread and elsewhere on the site. Cheers.

 

[Juzzo]

Hey Johnsy,
I think it is a bit risky. It will give you potentially 3 known donuts to carry through the byes, on top of any other players that go missing. Yes, Steele and or Lambert could play during the byes, but it seems like you are comitting to the idea at least one of them will play!
While it is good to have money during the byes, that money is for upgrades, and if you can make an upgrade now, as long as it isn't compromising your bye structure, you may as well do it.
You might have read, that I am guessing Rocky comes back in Rnd 15, due to Brisbane playing Freo away in Rnd 14. It wouldn't totally surprise me if he came back early (again!), but if he does, the repeat is in danger of happening, again! I think it's too long to carry him.



I'd prefer Wines. It seems that GWS' Midfield depth is having an adverse reaction on Ward's SC.

GWS have minimal injuries, not sure if that worsens Steele's chance of a call up?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus!

Made two trades last week to bring in Buddy and Simpson by getting rid on Tarrant and Lumumba. I regretted the Lumumba to Simpson trade during the weekend because I thought Lumumba would lift, and I thought I might not be able to do the Miller to Jelwood move because of lack of funds. Turns out that after Jelwoods bad game, I can afford the upgrade.

Do you think Jelwood is good value? I just think that even his bad games are about 80, and that is much better than Miller, for only 120k extra. Do you think making this switch is a smart move?

Would you think having 17 trades left at this point of the season is not enough?

Hi w2Tk,
well done on some good trades last week. Lumumba to Simpson will work out ok, I think.
Selwood is an interesting one. Who would have thought you could get him for under $500k???!!!
Personally, I'd avoid him. He's not playing like his old self, and is playing more like Cotchin, when we all hated Cotchin. Short, sideways and backwards possessions, and not coping well with tags.
I actually seriously considered trading Selwood out this week, to help me finally get Fyfe. The thing that changed my mind is, that I only have 15 trades left, so probably can't afford to sideways/upgrade Selwood. Your 17 trades left sounds fine, I wouldn't worry about that all.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus: those predictions with Maso are disturbingly accurate!!

If you have a couple of minutes to spare I'd like you to cast your eyes over my team and pick holes in it for me. In particular some thoughts on which lines I should focus on over coming weeks, and perhaps which of the peaking/peaked rookies to cull first.

Context: 15 trades left and $410K in the bank

Here's how I see my priorities at the moment:

- Rookies are needing to be culled at the same time - Krak, Miller, Oxley etc, despite having already disposed of Cripps, vd berg and Salem. Injury cloud over Saad a worry, as is Sinclair's inability to make BE.
- Injuries, first to Zac Smith, and now Ryder, have left my rucks in a mess - R2 needs resolving at some stage - one of Goldy, Jacobs or Blicavs.
- Only just traded Rocky in, with limited trades left will have to hold him. I've also resolved to hold Heeney and Hogan for the time being. Held Wines all the way through his injury.

Thanks a lot Rowsus.

^^^I'm no Rowsus but FWIW I would go upgrades:

Combination of these:
Krak to prem forward or McGovern (link with Goddard in defence)
Ryder to prem ruck (Goldy perhaps)
Rock out for maybe Beams or premium mid
Saad to Yeo

Having said that you don't have Fyfe or Gray, might have to pay overs to get them in your team. And there's no mid/forward link in your mids, both Krak and Swan in your forward line, but you can correct that via trading.

Rowsus will probably have some better options.

Good luck

Looking at byes

Coming into round 12 Saad, Oxley, McKenzie, Sinclair, Heeney could go.
Coming into round 13 Krak, Hogan, Ryder, Dumont could go.

Hi sang,
you and I started with similar teams, and are experiencing similar problems.
The way I read it is, you have 4, 6, 1.5, 4 Keepers in your team. The problem is, a few them appear to be at the lower end of the Keeper scale. This means you are one or two upgrades behind a lot of the better teams, and heading towards a team that probably gets outscored when it is complete anyway. Certainly by the better teams, but maybe not by the bottom 5 or 6 teams in your main League, depending on how strong that League is.
I think Goldy is the best value of the Rucks you are looking at, and I'm not convinced that Ryder is a complete write off. As Goldy is a Rnd 13 bye, there's not much point in waiting. Even though Sinclair may restart his earnings, I'd go Sinclair out, Krakouer up, Ryder down, Goldy in.
Reopens your M/F link, even if temporarily, and opens a R/F link. When you're struggling to fill a team with better quality cattle, making a flexible team with lots of DPP links can be a real bonus! Krak can be held until his Rnd 13 bye, and traded out then.
I originally was going to hold Rocky, but I just think risk is too great now. He's either back too early and a big risk again, or sitting on your bench until Rnd 15, where he'll still have a question mark on his durability. I'd upgrade Rocky to Beams, or if you are worried about blowing your bank, maybe Heppell.
Each of your lines appear to be lacking a bit of depth. This is where you'll strike some problems in trying to raise a decent score each week. You may not have any choice but to take some value to complete your team, but you also need to aim for some top shelf along the way, too. I nearly suggested Rocky to Gray, but it really does seem like he's priced to his max.
Keep building your team evenly as you have been, it allows for a change of direction, where as locking a line early leaves you no room to move.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way on a few of those decisions in the coming weeks!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row;

Once again I call upon your expertise to ask you your opinion on Dayne Zorko.

As we know, he's capable of some monster scores, as well as some putrid ones. At around $400k and a breakeven of 92, he's becoming an attractive prospect; I'm not sure if I want to bring him in this week; but I'm certainly keeping an eye on him. What are your thoughts on him as a permanent upgrade?

Hey Eag,
I considered him myself, earlier in the week. He certainly looks value, and should be benefitting from the injuries to Brisbanes Mids. It does worry me he only managed 20 disposals last week, while Taylor, who costs nearly $60k less, racked up 32 disposals. Taylor seemed to spend the majority of the game on the ball, and certainly spent more time there than Zorko. I guess you'd be hoping Zorko becomes a Keeper, while Taylor is probably only a Stepping Stone type. Zorko looks more like the 2013 edition of himself this season, than the 2014. While he looks like value on paper, I think i'd be looking elsewhere.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

I've been planning on bringing in R Gray for numerous weeks, I've just been waiting for 1 bad score.

However he doesn't appear likely to drop a bad score at the moment even with Port loosing games.

In your opinion should I wait and see or just bite the bullet an bring him in?

Regards,

CC

CC,
it all depends on how you see your finances stretching. Grab him asap, irrespective of his price, if you are confident you won't be stretched to complete your team. If you think you might find it a bit difficult, then paying overs for him seems a bit wasteful, and you should probably wait.
Depending on his form, he might only fall $40-50k sometime between now, and when you might be able to get him, but that might be an important $40-$50k!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Thoughts on Tom McDonald - blip in form or reverting back to "normal" scoring days?

Thanks.

Hi Alba,
I've been saying all along, that I didn't think TMc could maintain the rage, and I see no reason to change opinion now. I for one will be surprised if he can be a top 8 Def from here until Rnd 23.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi row

Last week I asked your opinion regarding the best midfielder to buy out of beams hannes and Lewis. I believe beams was your preference. I'm considering danger not bc of his last week score but due to his sc consistency. If you were to pick out of beams and danger who would you choose and is the best option for the remainder of the season. What do you think danger will avg for the remainder of the season? I have Brought in Rocky last week and i was planning on not trading this week. However if he misses 4-6 weeks I need to another midfielder so that I don't have to use miller. In your opinion is it worth trading in beams or danger for one week or is it best to wait? My initial thoughts is to wait however danger is at an ok price.

Also I wanted to say a big thank you for convincing me not to trade newes. Thanks for all your help

Hi Ad,
glad to hear you kept Newnes. He might be in for another shocker this week, with Weller suspended, but hopefully he bounces back again soon.
I'm not one that thinks that trading in Rnd 11 bye players in Rnd 10 is a bad idea. No matter who you trade in, they will be facing a bye anyway! It doesn't matter if it is one week, two weeks or three weeks after you traded them in, it's still a compulsory missed game.

Dangerfield $587,300 B/E 32 Ave 116.7 - I had him pegged for 22 games at 110-112, with a ceiling score of about 150-160. His monster score was roughly 30 higher than I pegged his ceiling, which bumps his projected average to 111.5-113.5.
If we use that as guide, he will score 1,425 points from here (Ave 109.6) or $5,358/point/game.

Beams $596,100 B/E 107 Ave 112.7 - I had him pegged for 20 games at 115-117, with a ceiling of about 150-160. He hasn't breached his ceiling, or done anything that would make me lower my expectations. So let's stick with115-117.
If we use that as guide, and assume we have about 75 points in coverage for each of his two missed games, his position will score 1,456 points from here (Ave 112.0) or $5,322/point/game.

A small win to Beams, if you like those estimates, though his "lead" would increase, if you think he can/will play more than 22 games.

If you decide you want Danger, definitely don't wait because of the byes, unless it causes a donut in your bye structure.

 

[Rowsus]

Hello again Rowsus, just wanting to know your thoughts and how you rate the following rookies with a view of having them playing through the MBRs.

J Hamling
J Glenn
T Dumont
K Amon
A Boston

Add D. Robinson & K. Brooksby to that list please.

To be honest, we're all guessing on that one. I wouldn't think any of them have great JS.
I would think that Robinson was the biggest risk, JS-wise, but I wouldn't want to be a great deal on any one of them playing every game between now, and Round 13, though it will probably work out that two or three might do it.
Sorry I couldn't shed more light, but I would only be guessing/misleading you, if I said anything else.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, you have become the voice of reason for me so I will continue to run my bigger trades by you.

Interested in your thoughts on Matthew Boyd (as a trade in for Rocky)?

Would not have considered him at the start of the season due to his age and being in a bottom side but he has changed roles and the Bulldogs have a decent run coming up. He also suits my bye planning so if you don't think that he is worth a look is there anyone else with a round 11 bye and up to 550K that is worth a look? This trade I am hoping to end up my M6

I've just done that trade

Hey Mudflap,
I reckon you want something in the 108 - 110 area at least from your M6 position, and I don't think Boyd will do it. He's already missed 2 games, and you would think it is likely he will miss one or two more. 19 games in 2014, 13 games in 2013. I would think the 108-110 area would be his upper limit these days, and that's without factoring in Rookie cover for missed games.
Under the guidelines you've given me, I'd be looking at Lewis. He only costs $200 more, and even though he's in a lot more teams (12% compared to 0.5%), I think he'd be more reliable as an M6 than Boyd.

 

[Rowsus]

GWS have minimal injuries, not sure if that worsens Steele's chance of a call up?

While they will probably want to get a game or three under his belt at some stage, I would think their short injury list, and strive for their first finals appearance, are definitely factors keeping him out at the moment. Definite vest problems if/when he gets a game anyway.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi sang,
you and I started with similar teams, and are experiencing similar problems.
The way I read it is, you have 4, 6, 1.5, 4 Keepers in your team. The problem is, a few them appear to be at the lower end of the Keeper scale. This means you are one or two upgrades behind a lot of the better teams, and heading towards a team that probably gets outscored when it is complete anyway. Certainly by the better teams, but maybe not by the bottom 5 or 6 teams in your main League, depending on how strong that League is.
I think Goldy is the best value of the Rucks you are looking at, and I'm not convinced that Ryder is a complete write off. As Goldy is a Rnd 13 bye, there's not much point in waiting. Even though Sinclair may restart his earnings, I'd go Sinclair out, Krakouer up, Ryder down, Goldy in.
Reopens your M/F link, even if temporarily, and opens a R/F link. When you're struggling to fill a team with better quality cattle, making a flexible team with lots of DPP links can be a real bonus! Krak can be held until his Rnd 13 bye, and traded out then.
I originally was going to hold Rocky, but I just think risk is too great now. He's either back too early and a big risk again, or sitting on your bench until Rnd 15, where he'll still have a question mark on his durability. I'd upgrade Rocky to Beams, or if you are worried about blowing your bank, maybe Heppell.
Each of your lines appear to be lacking a bit of depth. This is where you'll strike some problems in trying to raise a decent score each week. You may not have any choice but to take some value to complete your team, but you also need to aim for some top shelf along the way, too. I nearly suggested Rocky to Gray, but it really does seem like he's priced to his max.
Keep building your team evenly as you have been, it allows for a change of direction, where as locking a line early leaves you no room to move.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way on a few of those decisions in the coming weeks!

Hi row if you were chasing the league win and you knew rocky would come back between 4-6 weeks and I'm assuming he might play in the fwd line to begin, and there might be more lti 's to come would you hold or trade him?

 

[Johnsy44]

Hey Johnsy,
I think it is a bit risky. It will give you potentially 3 known donuts to carry through the byes, on top of any other players that go missing. Yes, Steele and or Lambert could play during the byes, but it seems like you are comitting to the idea at least one of them will play!
While it is good to have money during the byes, that money is for upgrades, and if you can make an upgrade now, as long as it isn't compromising your bye structure, you may as well do it.
You might have read, that I am guessing Rocky comes back in Rnd 15, due to Brisbane playing Freo away in Rnd 14. It wouldn't totally surprise me if he came back early (again!), but if he does, the repeat is in danger of happening, again! I think it's too long to carry him.
I'm not sure I agree that Cripps is likely 90+ most weeks. A lot will depend on Judd/Murphy/Gibbs etc, and what the new match committee want to achieve with him. He will in all likelihood throw in a couple of disappointing scores along the way.
I'd prefer Wines. It seems that GWS' Midfield depth is having an adverse reaction on Ward's SC.

Thaks so much for doing this Row. Means a lot

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Bobbie,
I count you at 14.5 Keepers, with a question mark over Rocky. Is Rocky a Keeper? If so you have 15.5 with Grundy being the .5.
You have the cash to make two direct upgrades this week, which would sit you at 15.5/16.5.
The half done upgrades will cost about $130-$170k each. ie Saad, Oxley, Grundy, Cripps.
Let's say downgrading Miller, CEY and McIntosh get's those 4 upgraded.
That gets you to 19.5/20.5 Keepers using 7 trades.
And Rookies still to work with of:
Brown, Lever, McKenzie, Amon, Tarrant, Clarke and Dale.
We haven't taken into account your $359k in the bank.
This isn't presenting an order for trade out, but more to demonstrate, that you might have enough Cash and Cash Cows to complete your team. Obviously you can never have too much Cash, and it's good to be able to build in some good/better cover on the benches, I just think Dumont isn't a must get for you. The idea of having a good bank coming into the byes is a good one, but if you can make the upgrades that little bit earlier, isn't that better for your overall end of season position? As long as you feel comfortable that you are not too compromised, I'd take the upgrades this week. If you end up wearing a Rookie donut in Rnd 12, because selections didn't go your way that week, you just wear it, I think. You certainly won't be alone!
As to Rocky, it's a long time to carry him. Given it's a repeat injury from an early return, and Brisbane aren't really in finals contention, you'd think they'd try and get it right this time. I'd expect at least 3 missed games. Rnd 14 Brisbane play Freo in WA, then Rnd 15 Sydney at the Gabba. I'll guess a Rnd 15 return right now, as returning to play Freo away seems a bit risky.

Thanks Rowsus. How does this sound:

Round 10 - Oxley > Hodge & Tarrant > Buddy. $36,700 left. **Actually Clark might be better to trade out given his injury - Tarrant can be utilised during byes???
Round 12 - Brown > Hamling & Rocky to Lewis. ~$80K left.

Leaves me with Cripps, CEY, Miller, Saad and McIntosh as decent cash cows to work with. I count 4.5 upgrades after that. If another decent downgrade option presents during the byes then I should be able to facilitate another upgrade.

My biggest question is do I spend all that coin on Hodge or should I look at getting a cheaper option to save some money for other upgrades?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi row if you were chasing the league win and you knew rocky would come back between 4-6 weeks and I'm assuming he might play in the fwd line to begin, and there might be more lti 's to come would you hold or trade him?

Hi Ad,
I would look at my next 5 or 6 opponents, and see if I could beat them with Rocky on the bench, and assuming if they have Rocky, that they trade him to a Mid Prem. After looking at those games, and guessing how many you would win, see where that might leave you on the ladder. If you are happy with the result, keep Rocky, if you are not, trade him.